Malaysia 2022 General Election Nov 19th

[jaichind]

65% turnout as of 3PM.  Most likely turnout will end up in the high 70s.  Back in 2018, it was 82%.  Note the two turnouts are not compatible since 18-20-year-olds are now registered and there was a mass automatic registration.  So the registered vote based in 2022 is a lot higher than in 2018.  Still turnout of around high 70s is good but not great for PH

As of 3PM the total votes cast already exceeded the 2018 levels

[jaichind]

In Peninsular Malaysia is it mostly the tiny rural parts of heavy Chinese seat results coming in which are fairly anti-PH. They do not give us a sense of how the Malay vote will split.

[jaichind]

Sabah 181   Tenom - very early

BN-UMNO    37.21%
PH-DAP       31.33%
PPBM rebel  29.67%
WARISAN      1.45%

Back in 2018 it was

PH-DAP       51.10%
BN-UMNO    46.00%

BN-UMNO is expected to win but note the tiny vote share of WARISAN does give hope to PH that in Sabah there is going to be opposition tactical voting between PH and WARISAN 

[jaichind]

Early results out of Sarawak show a GPS blowout.   Even in the one Chinese seat, GPS-SUPP is ahead.

P212 - Sibu
GPS-SUPP  41.45%
PH-DAP      29.68%
PSB           28.86% (SUPP splinter)

back in 2018, it was

PH-DAP      59.58%
BN-SUPP    39.45%

Note that the count is still very early and here the count bias is against PH.  I think in the end DAP still wins this once more votes comes in.

PH-DAP takes the lead in this seat now.  It does show that in Sarawak the Chinese vote will hold up for PH

[jaichind]

Voting in the Baram seat in Sarawak has been suspended due to bad weather.  That leaves 220 vs 222 seats in contention today 

[jaichind]

This just to show how skewed the early count is

In Anwar Ibrahim's seat, it is with around 1% of the vote in

P63 Tambun

PN-PPBM        67.31%
BN-UMNO       24.15%
PH-PKR            8.07%  (Anwar Ibrahim)
GTA-PEJUANG   0.48%

This is a new seat for Anwar Ibrahim where he wants to run in swing state Perak.  But clearly, he will win.

[jaichind]

Rule of thumb:  In Peninsular Malaysia, if you see a BN or PN candidate ahead in the early count and said candidate has a Chinese name then all things equal they will lose their lead after more votes come in.  There will be a few exceptions for some MCA heavyweights of course.

[jaichind]

In Sarawak Christian tribal areas the PH vote is actually holding up to 2018 levels.  This means that DAP has a shot at holding  P192 Mas Gading which I figure they were going to lose and lose badly.

[jaichind]

In some Sarawak seats, PSB is surging and eating into both GPS and PH votes.  But it seems to be on a seat-by-seat basis.  In the 2021 state election PSB mostly displaced PH as the main opposition force to GPS in many seats.

[jaichind]

This means that DAP has a shot at holding  P192 Mas Gading.

I'm surprised at the results there.  I wonder is it because the early results are from Bau town (Chinese, DAP base - this is where the pig farms are) and the remote villages which will normally go for GPS have yet to complete their counts.

I agree DAP will most likely still lose in but it will be by a smaller margin then I had expected.  I thought it was going to be a massive GPS non-Chinese consolidation across the board and the results so far is more mixed.

[jaichind]

So far WARISAN is underperforming in Sabah.  This will perhaps help PH to hold some seats but in WARISAN vs BN-PN seats it will be WARISAN underperformance.

[jaichind]

Myundi count so far.  BN and PN are ahead in some Chinese seats which will clearly reverse

[jaichind]

Mas Gading:

Ethnic breakdown of Mas Gading's electorate as of 2022 (47,171 voters)
  Sarawak bumiputera (73.7%)
  Chinese (17.6%)
  Malay-Muslim bumiputera (7.2%)
  Other ethnicities (1.5%)

There are about 8k Chinese votes in the seat.


Warisan has been on a downward trend since the state election.  Shafie deciding to run candidates in West Malaysia in mostly PH seats has probably caused the PH voters who voted for him the last time when they were in a seat-sharing agreement in Sabah last election, to actually voting for the PH candidate this time around.

Note that the DAP candidate in Mas Gading is not Chinese and he won a clear majority here back in 2018 on the back of Christian tribal vote.

[jaichind]

In P160 Johor Bahru the PPBM vote is quite large after perhaps around 10% of the vote counted

PH-PKR     39.64%
BN-UMNO  36.26%
PN-PPBM   22.72%

This batch seems Malay heavy so the PKR lead will grow.  Still that the PPBM can be 22.72% here in Johor means that the Johor Malay vote might become split.  This could be very bad news for UMNO if replicated in other Johor seats.

[jaichind]

P134 Masjid Tanah in Melaka has more signs of a PN surge with perhaps 25% of the vote counted

PN-PPBM    42.42%
BN-UMNO   39.34%
MUDA         16.38%

UMNO won 54% of the vote here back in 2018.

[jaichind]

P146 Muar in Johor.  MUDA leader well ahead after around 25% of the vote in.  It seems he has this.  Again, here PN-PPBM  is 5% ahead of BN-UMNO.  Bad news for UMNO in Johor in terms of how the Malay vote is splitting.

[jaichind]

Things are looking not good for BN

[jaichind]

In Peninsular Malaysia, BN is not ahead in any seat that has a significant number of votes counted.  It is all PH or PN.

[jaichind]

It seems in Peninsular Malaysia PH and PN will overperform.  And in seems  Sabah  WARISAN will underperform to the benefit of BN-PN

[jaichind]

P209   Julau with over 1/3 of the vote in

PBM          39.33% (backed by PH)
GPS-PRS    34.90%
PSB rebel   24.15%

Back in 2018, the PBM incumbent won on the back of PH support.  This time he might win again because of the PSB rebel.  This is the first example of PSB cutting into GPS votes and perhaps costing them a seat.

[jaichind]

Early results from Langkawi and it's not looking good for Tun.

P004 Langkawi (3.5k votes counted)
BN 47.24%
PN 39.26%
PH 7.51%
PEJUANG 6.19% (Mahathir)

Another example of PN overperformance.

It is a sad end to a great political career.

[jaichind]

https://luminews.my/ge15 in terms of leads has it at

PH         50
PN         24
GPS       22
BN         18
GRS         2 (PN in Sabah)
Others      2 (1 pro-PH PBM)
WARISAN  1

[jaichind]

If the Johor Malay vote is indicative of how the Malay vote will split up North then PAS will crush UMNO in the UMNO-PAS marginals.

[jaichind]

In Johor, there are signs that MCA is regaining some Chinese votes from PH for BN.  The main problem is the Johor Malay vote is splitting away to vote PN.

[jaichind]

P181   Tenom in Sabah the PPBM rebel pulls ahead in a neck-to-neck 3-way race !!

PPBM rebel       32.65%
BN-UMNO         32.53%
PH-DAP            30.89%
WARISAN           3.59%