Malaysia 2022 General Election Nov 19th

[jaichind]

Muhyiddin: PN to discuss with Sabah, Sarawak parties to form govt, no Harapan
Anwar: have the numbers, enough to form new govt (again, for the Nth time)

[jaichind]

BN is in a rut. What they need is some time in the opposition to wash off the stink of corruption and sell themself as the competent Malay party at the next election. But BN is a party of power and an ATM machine for many of its members. There's a good chance BN collapses completely if they are locked out out of power.

PH is in a similar dilemma.  It is clear that the Malay vote will always vote in such a way as to avoid DAP being in government.  2018 was a miscalculation for Malay voters that wanted to teach UMNO a lesson but went too far.  The Malay anger at DAP being in the government eventually led to pressure on PPBM to leave PH and form a PN government.  This time around the Malay en masse shifted to PN to avoid a PH victory given how unpopular BN has become by calling this election.

[jaichind]

So do people just hate DAP out of pure anti-chinese racism?

I think it is totally understandable.  The Chinese population in Malaysia controls a very large part of the private economy.   If the Chinese also have access to political power this would place them in a very powerful position over the Malay majority.  The entire UMNO-MCA arrangement with BN was done exactly to ensure that the Chinese population has very little political power and the Malay majority agree not to kill the goose that lays the golden eggs.  This arrangement is now breaking down with the decline of BN.

[jaichind]

Peninsular Malaysia results (164 out of 165)
                  
PH-MUDA      71
   DAP             33
   PHK             29
   AMANAH        8
   MUDA            1

PN               70            
   PAS             43 !!!
   PPBM           27 !!!

BN              23
   UMNO         20 !!!
   MCA             2
   MIC              1

Last seat almost certain now to go to PPBM


2018 -> 2022

UMNO     46->20
MCA         1->2
MIC          2->1

DAP         33->33
PKR         41->29
AMANAH  11->8

PPBM       13->27 (will be 28)
PAS         18->43

[jaichind]

Good news for UMNO: No PN-led government can be formed without their MPs
Bad news for UMNO: Their bargaining position is very weak so it is not clear how much access to resources they will have in this new government and once a PN-led government is in place the first thing PPBM is going to do is to lure UMNO MPs to defect to PPBM

[jaichind]

So do people just hate DAP out of pure anti-chinese racism?

I think it is totally understandable.  The Chinese population in Malaysia controls a very large part of the private economy.   If the Chinese also have access to political power this would place them in a very powerful position over the Malay majority.  The entire UMNO-MCA arrangement with BN was done exactly to ensure that the Chinese population has very little political power and the Malay majority agree not to kill the goose that lays the golden eggs.  This arrangement is now breaking down with the decline of BN.

i understand you, but there is something unsettlingly ... Feudal about that arrangement? I don't see how that in the long run helps the chinese position in Malaysian society, nor address Malay grievances/resentments.


Also why did warisan do so badly?

Tribalism was and will continue to be part of human nature.  It is difficult for a society where several large tribes with different skills co-habit without breaking out into conflict over the perception of "unfairness."  So this type of arrangement seems the only way to avoid all-out conflict and take into account the comparative advantages of the different tribes.  The Chinese in Malaysia is making a mistake by voting for DAP as opposed to MCA (starting in 2008) and breaking this arrangement along the way. 

As for WARISAN, I think they did badly for the same reason BN did badly in Peninsular Malaysia.  The election became one where one voted for PM. In such a case the anti-BN-PN vote consolidated around PH since at least PH has a PM face.  WARISAN had nothing and had no vision of how it was going to use its MP to get something for Sabah.  WARISAN should have allied with PH and could have saved a couple of seats.

[jaichind]

Sabah/Labaun results (breaking them down by BN and PN as the best way to get the starting point for government formation talks)

BN               7
  UMNO           6
  PBRS            1

PN               8
 PPBM             6
 PBS               1
 STAR             1

PH               5
 DAP              2
 UPKO            2 !! (amazing how they pulled this off)
 PKR              1

WARISAN     3

KDM             1
PPBM rebel    2
  
The KDM winner has a PPBM background.  The 2 PPBM rebels ran with KDM support.  One of them actually became KDM but choose to run as an independent.  

UPKO's outperforming plus the KDM-backed candidates (1 KDM and the 2 PPBM rebels) seems to indicate that the  Kadazandusun vote is dealigning from the major blocs and voting for  Kadazandusun parties/outfits.
 
Given that the KDM and 2 PPBM rebels all have PPBM background I assume it is easy for them to jump onboard the likely PN-led government.

[jaichind]

All in all in Sabah the PN bloc walked away with more MPs than one would expect while BN and PH-WARISAN walked away with somewhat less than expected and certainly hoped.   This aligns well with the PN overperformance in Peninsular Malaysia.

[jaichind]

Peninsular Malaysia vote share

PH-MUDA      39.42%
   DAP             16.02%
   PHK             16.48%
   AMANAH        6.39%
   MUDA            0.54%

PN               34.82%      
   PAS             17.74%
   PPBM           14.99%
   GERAKAN       2.09%

BN               24.46%
   UMNO          17.27%
   MCA              5.17%
   MIC               1.25%
   Minor             0.77%

GTA                0.77%

PH-MUDA vote share looks right.  It is the PN vote share that was massive and came at the expense of BN vote share.  GTA is also lower than I would expect.

[jaichind]

Looking over the results in Peninsular Malaysia seat-by-seat my conclusion is that PH was doomed from the beginning and that there was no way they could have "won" this election.

It seems that BN underperformed across the board regardless of the demographic nature of the district.  This says that negativity toward Ahmad Zahid Hamidi most likely pushed a bunch of BN votes over to PN which had a surge and took a bunch of PH seats.

                    Vote share  Seats
PH-MUDA       39.42%         71
PN                 34.82%         70
BN                 24.46%         23

To get a sense of how one can filter this impact out in a way that benefits PH, the best way is to assume that 16% of the PN vote goes to BN.  That would produce

                    Vote share  Seats
PH-MUDA       39.42%         69
PN                 29.25%         45
BN                 30.03%         50

Where BN gains a bunch of seats from PN but PH-MUDA loses a few seats to BN which cancels out the gains PH-MUDA makes from PN.  So it seems even if BN and PN have equal vote share giving PH-MUDA an almost 10% vote share lead over both PH-MUDA failed to win a majority of seats in Peninsular Malaysia.  There are just too many heavy Malay seats where PH vote share is below 30% which means it could not win those seats no matter how the BN-PN vote distribution takes.

[jaichind]

King: Form a government and name a PM by Nov 21 afternoon

[jaichind]

There are two 2018 PAS MPs from P19 Tumpat and P35 Kuala Nerus that defected from PAS and ran for BN as pro-BN independents.  Of course, they were crushed.  It is still pretty funny how they jumped on the bandwagon just as it was going off the cliff.
 
 

[jaichind]

Peninsular Malaysia rank (164 out of 165 seats) and average vote share in each rank

                           1                   2               3
PH-MUDA      71/56.67%    32/31.95%  61/13.25%
PN                70/52.60%    54/26.18%  40/20.31%
BN                23/45.34%    78/29.50%  63/17.30%

PN is the most spread out in terms of support where both PH-MUDA and BN have a large number of districts where they are not relevant (below 20%).  The higher vote share for PH-MUDA and BN for second-place finishes is a clear sign of BN->PN and PH-MUDA->PN tactical voting.  PH-MUDA and BN both seeing each other as the main enemy worked very well for PN. 

Sort of reminds me of the French legislative  election early this year where ENS and NUPES saw each other as the main enemy which actually worked to allow RN to get in in a bunch of places.

[jaichind]

Anwar's daughter Nurul Izzah's defeat in P44 Permatang Pauh was a shock.  The Anwar clan had controlled this seat since 1982.

It went from

2018
PH-PKR     50.89% (Nurul Izzah)
BN-UMNO  28.45%
GS-PAS     20.66%

to
2022
PN-PAS     43.04%
PH-PKR     37.01% (Nurul Izzah)
BN-UMNO  19.41%

There is no sign of why the PKR base would decline so much.  I can see how the UMNO vote might go over to PAS but that does not explain such a large drop in vote share.  Then I found this news from August 2022

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/people/article/3187952/daughter-malaysias-anwar-ibrahim-marries-low-key-ceremony

"Daughter of Malaysia’s Anwar Ibrahim marries in low-key ceremony"

It seems that Nurul Izzah was married and divorced in 2015.  She re-married in August 2022 to a Chinese academic.  I can see how this is going to consolidate the Malay-Muslim vote against her.  Getting divorced.  Fine.  Getting married to someone outside your tribe and religion.  Not fine.   Nurul Izzah is free to marry anyone she wants but she will enjoy her new marriage without being a MP.  I would have tied the knot after the election but Nurul Izzah should be free to prioritize her personal and political affairs how she wants.

[jaichind]

Anwar's daughter Nurul Izzah's defeat in P44 Permatang Pauh was a shock.  The Anwar clan had controlled this seat since 1982.

It went from

2018
PH-PKR     50.89% (Nurul Izzah)
BN-UMNO  28.45%
GS-PAS     20.66%

to
2022
PN-PAS     43.04%
PH-PKR     37.01% (Nurul Izzah)
BN-UMNO  19.41%

There is no sign of why the PKR base would decline so much.  I can see how the UMNO vote might go over to PAS but that does not explain such a large drop in vote share.  Then I found this news from August 2022

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/people/article/3187952/daughter-malaysias-anwar-ibrahim-marries-low-key-ceremony

"Daughter of Malaysia’s Anwar Ibrahim marries in low-key ceremony"

It seems that Nurul Izzah was married and divorced in 2015.  She re-married in August 2022 to a Chinese academic.  I can see how this is going to consolidate the Malay-Muslim vote against her.  Getting divorced.  Fine.  Getting married to someone outside your tribe and religion.  Not fine.   Nurul Izzah is free to marry anyone she wants but she will enjoy her new marriage without being a MP.  I would have tied the knot after the election but Nurul Izzah should be free to prioritize her personal and political affairs how she wants.

I really doubt that this is the case. Many senior UMNO figures were married to Chinese spouses and I do not remember them suffering any electoral penalty. If you look at nearby PH held seats (Parit Buntar, Merbok, Kulim Bandar Baharu) and other Malay majority seats in Penang (Kepala Batas and Tasek Gelugor) you can see that PH support went down by more than 10% and PN doubled PAS numbers. She lost because she was swept by the PN wave in Northern Malaysia and she does not have Anwar or Wan Azizah's star power. The only outlier in North Malaysia was Sungai Petani where PH managed to hold on because the PN candidate is a Chinese from GERAKAN.

All good points.  Clearly, I cannot know for sure one way or another.  I think my response would be

a) Standards are different for men and women and marrying outside their tribe/religion
b) This type of swing is quite large after we consider that
   1) This is not a rural district
   2) incumbent is PKR who is expected to win so anti-BN tactical voting can be ruled out
   3) Clearly the Anwar name would minimize the swing but instead the swing seems larger than most even if there are others that have similar swings (see 1) and 2))

[jaichind]

Another possible but unlikely coalition: "Alliance of backstabbers" or "That 80s Show" government:

All non-DAP and non-PAS parties come together with Anwar Ibrahim being PM for the first 2.5 years and then Muhyiddin Yassin being PM for the last 2.5 years.

Looking at reaction/incentives

In Peninsular Malaysia
PKR -> Anwar gets to be PM. Yes.
PPBM -> Muhyiddin Yassin gets to be PM again in 2.5 years. Also, no DAP and PAS are a long-term threat. Yes
UMNO - we are part of the government and there is no DAP.  Also, PAS is clearly a long-term threat so this government can get all non-PAS Malay parties to gang up on them.  Yes.
AMANAH - We get to stop the hated PAS. Yes.
Chinese/Indian community  -> Yes, DAP is out but the threat of a powerful PAS in government is averted.  That sounds like a good compromise
Conservative Malays -> No DAP.  Yes.

In Sabah/Sawawak
Sabah regional parties -> We do not like PAS and in some cases, DAP is an enemy.  Yes
GPS -> DAP is our enemy in a bunch of seats and we do not like PAS.  Yes.

Historically UMNO PAS and DAP are the parties with strong grassroots.  With UMNO getting a potentially fatal blow in this election that leaves just PAS and DAP that is a threat to everyone else.
 Between DAP and PAS, they do not have more than 85 MPs so such a government would be easy to form.  It requires Anwar and Muhyiddin Yassin to put aside their egos to come up with such a government which I would argue would be stable since no polarizing party is in the alliance.

[jaichind]

Sabah/Labuan vote share

                           Contest         Win           Vote share
BN                          14               7                 19.73%
  UMNO                      12              6                 17.55%
  PBRS                         2              1                   2.18%

PN                          15               8                  19.49%
  PPBM                        8               6                   10.35%
  PBS                          4                1                    5.95%
  STAR                        2                1                    2.72%
  SAPP                        1                0                    0.46%

PH                         25               5                   27.35%
  PKR                         10              1                   10.67%
  DAP                          7               2                    8.83%
  UPKO                        5               2                    6.63%
  AMANAH                   2               0                    0.92%
  MUDA                       1               0                    0.29%

WARISAN               26               3                   24.32%

KDM+                      9               3                   7.15%
 KDM                          7                1                  4.75%
 PPBM rebel                 2               2                   2.40%

PH and WARISAN together win a majority of the votes but their split cost them 2-3 seats. WARISAN  clearly underperformed as opposition votes in some cases shifted from WARISAN  to PH. Despite some leaks the BN-PN alliance held in most places.  KDM bloc outperformed both in terms of vote share and seats and took seats from the BN and PN.  

[jaichind]

Battle on TikTok seems evenly matched for the 3 fronts.

Some post-election analysis indicate that PPBM-PAS were very effective in making various short videos on TikTok on the BN economic and corruption record.  PPBM-PAS was able to pin the inflation surge on BN through these short videos which had a wide reach.  The growth of TikTok in Malaysia over the last 4 years must have been significant and PPBM-PAS seems to be ahead of BN and even PH in taking advantage of it.

[jaichind]

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/malaysia-ge15-calls-umno-president-ahmad-zahids-resignation-grow-louder-3087806

"Malaysia GE15: Calls for UMNO president Ahmad Zahid's resignation grow louder"

Still no signs that Zahid will resign.  I am surprised given he singlehandedly led BN to this debacle 

[jaichind]

It seems one of the conditions PN is giving to BN for including BN in a PN-led government plus BN's share of ministers is that Ahmad Zahid has to resign as Prez of UMNO.  It seems Ahmad Zahid is not willing to go along with this ergo there is a deadlock.  I expect a coup against Ahmad Zahid within UMNO soon if this deadlock continues.

[jaichind]

Out of the 164 Peninsular Malaysia seats, we can divide them up into 83 seats where the Malay population is above 66% and 81 seats where the Malay population is below 66%.  We can then look at seats and vote share

                    PH          BN          PN       Total
Above 66%    4            12          67        83
                 19.27%   29.86%  49.69%

Below 66%    67          11            3         81
                 55.08%   20.26%  23.26%   

Total             71          23          70       164
                 39.42%   24.46%  34.82%

PH and PN are total mirror images of each other in terms of seats with BN being competitive in both types of seats but crushed by polarized and anti-BN tactical voting.

[jaichind]

Seat and vote share by state in Peninsular Malaysia

                            PH                   BN                       PN              
Perlis                  19.77%            23.85%             54.15%
                             0                     0                         3

Kedah                22.03%           20.79%               54.86%
                             1                     0                        13

Kelantan              8.80%            26.79%               63.66%
                             0                     0                        14

Terengganu         5.49%             31.68%               62.38%
                             0                     0                          8

Penang              59.99%            15.19%                23.96%
                            10                    0                          3

Perak                43.38%            24.98%                30.73%
                            11                    3                         10

Pahang              22.90%            38.38%                37.91%
                             2                     5                           7

Selangor            52.81%            17.40%                27.54%
                           16                     0                           6

Kuala Lumpur     62.63%            15.99%                19.42%
                           10                     1                           0

Negeri Sembilan 44.80%            32.17%                21.96%
                            3                      5                           0

Melaka               38.69%            29.63%                30.92%
                            3                      0                           3

Johor                 42.26%            30.64%                 26.62%
                          15                      9                           2

[jaichind]

Thanks for sharing all that info on the Nurul Izzah and clearing things up with her situation.

[jaichind]

Looking over the results in Peninsular Malaysia seat-by-seat my conclusion is that PH was doomed from the beginning and that there was no way they could have "won" this election.

It seems that BN underperformed across the board regardless of the demographic nature of the district.  This says that negativity toward Ahmad Zahid Hamidi most likely pushed a bunch of BN votes over to PN which had a surge and took a bunch of PH seats.

                    Vote share  Seats
PH-MUDA       39.42%         71
PN                 34.82%         70
BN                 24.46%         23

To get a sense of how one can filter this impact out in a way that benefits PH, the best way is to assume that 16% of the PN vote goes to BN.  That would produce

                    Vote share  Seats
PH-MUDA       39.42%         69
PN                 29.25%         45
BN                 30.03%         50

Where BN gains a bunch of seats from PN but PH-MUDA loses a few seats to BN which cancels out the gains PH-MUDA makes from PN.  So it seems even if BN and PN have equal vote share giving PH-MUDA an almost 10% vote share lead over both PH-MUDA failed to win a majority of seats in Peninsular Malaysia.  There are just too many heavy Malay seats where PH vote share is below 30% which means it could not win those seats no matter how the BN-PN vote distribution takes.

This is the ultimate story of the election, I think. Everything else flows from that calculus that PH is not a viable or desirable choice in many parts of the country that wanted to make a statement on BN's arrogance, even though both PH and PN ran on that. So they picked PN instead. This accounts for pretty much all of the BN seats I marked down that ultimately went to PN, as well as some secondary knock-on effects where that PN surge allowed a PH or other candidate to sneak up the middle.

If one assumed that most of the BN-PN undecided broke in favor of BN which you and I had expected I can set that PN->BN shift to 25% of the PN vote which would produce

                    Vote share  Seats
PH-MUDA       39.42%         69
BN                 33.16%         66
PN                 26.11%         29

And if you go seat-by-seat this shift has a large number of our projections being accurate.  Again, PH-MUD is at 69 seats in this scenario.  It seems that however one set this PN->BN shift PH gains some seats from PN but loses to BN of a similar number of seats to produce a very close result to what took place in reality.

[jaichind]

Sarawak results

Not a massive GPS landslide like the 2021 Sarawak state election with PH getting a respectable vote share.

P220 Baram is not all counted yet due to the storm but the result is clear and the vote shares might shift a bit when they do finish counting.

                       Seats        Vote share
GPS                  23              56.14%
PH-PBM               7              32.66% (I include PBM in PH bloc since PH backed the PBM incumbent)
PN                      1                3.04% (mostly PKR->PPBM backgrounds)
PSB+                  0                5.38%
GPS/PSB rebels    0               2.36%

PSB+ is mostly a GPS splinter front.

There does seem to be some level of opposition to GPS but unlike in 2018, PN PSB and various GPS/PSB rebels are getting some of that anti-GPS vote versus all being concentrated on PH.