Malaysia 2022 General Election Nov 19th

[jaichind]

P165   Tanjung Piai in Johor   where I figured the MCA incumbent should win is in a neck-to-neck battle with MUDA with around 25% of the vote in

BN-MCA       39.09%
MUDA          38.89%
PN-PPBM      22.03%

The problem for MCA here is that a bunch of pro-BN Malay votes is going to PPBM even though a non-PH candidate here should help MCA gain more of the Chinese vote

[jaichind]

https://luminews.my/ge15 in terms of leads has it at

PH         55
PN         30
GPS       22
BN         18
Others      3 (1 pro-PH PBM, 1 PPBM rebel, 1 MUDA?)
GRS         2 (PN in Sabah)
WARISAN  1

The key metric here is for PH to have a chance at government then PH > BN+PN+GRS

[jaichind]

The problem for MCA here is that a bunch of pro-BN Malay votes is going to PPBM even though a non-PH candidate here should help MCA gain more of the Chinese vote

Maybe it's because:
1) The non-PH candidate is from a party in an electoral pact with PH.
2) There are no PH candidates running
3) The said non-PH candidate is ethnically Chinese and is a yuppie.

I think it has to lot to do with UMNO being viewed as the "Malay Party" which means the Chinese vote anti-BN.  Then with PPBM-PAS being a force and becoming the "Malay Party" the Chinese are now more open to voting BN even as Malay votes defect from BN to PN.

[jaichind]

If PN > BN then even if they can get a government formed we have the problem that PN will insist on getting the PM spot which UMNO will not accept.

[jaichind]

PPBM chief Muhyiddin Yassin is narrowly ahead in his seat but his main opponent is PH and not BN with around 33% of the vote in !!

P143 Pagoh in Johor

PN-PPBM    40.25%
PH-PKR      36.73%
BN-UMNO   23.03%

In 2018 UMNO win 38% here.  With Muhyiddin Yassin being the PN candidate for PM it seems a lot of the old UMNO Malay vote went over to PPBM.  At the same time, a lot of the anti-UMNO 2018 PPBM vote went back to PH.

[jaichind]

Old UMNO warhorse Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah looks like he will hold his seat in Kelantan's P32 Gua Musang with around 30% of the vote in

BN-UMNO     48.85%
PAS              35.37% 
PH-PKR         14.90%

Very similar vote shares as 2018

In Kelantan and Terengganu PAS ran under its own symbol rather than PN since their symbol is more well-known in these two PAS-ruled states.
 

[jaichind]

https://luminews.my/ge15 in terms of leads has it at

PH         55
PN         37
GPS       21
BN         17
Others      3 (1 pro-PH PBM, 1 PPBM rebel, 1 MUDA?)
GRS         2 (PN in Sabah)
WARISAN  1

PN continues its amazing surge.

[jaichind]

On the whole, GPS has underperformed in Sarawak.  They most likely captured a Chinese seat from DAP  but is in danger of losing a bunch of others that should have been won by them.

[jaichind]

https://luminews.my/ge15 in terms of leads has it at

PH         64
PN         37
GPS       21
BN         18
Others      3 (1 pro-PH PBM, 1 PPBM rebel, 1 MUDA?)
GRS         3 (PN in Sabah)
WARISAN  1

PH makes some gains

[jaichind]

Old UMNO warhorse Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah looks like he will hold his seat in Kelantan's P32 Gua Musang with around 30% of the vote in

BN-UMNO     48.85%
PAS              35.37% 
PH-PKR         14.90%

Very similar vote shares as 2018

In Kelantan and Terengganu PAS ran under its own symbol rather than PN since their symbol is more well-known in these two PAS-ruled states.
 

Wait .. now PAS took the lead here ?  Wow amazing...

[jaichind]

In Sarawak Christian tribal areas the PH vote is actually holding up to 2018 levels.  This means that DAP has a shot at holding  P192 Mas Gading which I figure they were going to lose and lose badly.

P192 Mas Gading called for PH-DAP.  Shocking result

[jaichind]

Oh wait no, right, brain fart. Still the opposition is doing pretty badly in Sabah all things considered.

UPKO flipped a seat from Warisan and they held KK, so it's not so bad so far.

But WARISAN was supposed to win that seat.  It seems the opposition vote consolidated around PH instead.

[jaichind]

If PH and allies can get at least 100 seats I think they can bribe GPS with ridiculous amount of money to support a PH government.

A reason for GPS to go with PH would also be BN and PN cannot even agree on PM given the PN's overperformance. 

[jaichind]

https://luminews.my/ge15 in terms of leads has it at

PH         65
PN         42
GPS       21
BN         18
Others      3 (1 pro-PH PBM in Sarawak, 1 PPBM rebel in Sabah, 1 KDM in Sabah)
GRS         3 (PN in Sabah)
WARISAN  1

[jaichind]

UMNO Prez Ahmad Zahid Hamidi wins the 2022 Theresa May Award

[jaichind]

Nothing from Perlis yet.  There is a BN rebellion there that is aligned with PN.  With all the other results I suspect PN sweeps all 3 Perlis seats.

[jaichind]

Father of the House Razaliegh Hamzah has lost by 163 votes.  Flip to PN.

He was an ancient rival to Mahathir in the 1980s within UMNO.  He then split UMNO in the late 1980s to form S46 and aligned with PAS.  By the mid-1990s he merged S46 back into UMNO.  It is fitting his political career comes to an end on the same day as Mahathir

[jaichind]

P44 Permatang Pauh in Penang.  With around 40% of the vote in Anwar's daughter is in her seat

PN-PAS       47.96%
PH-PKR       30.95%
BN-UMNO    20.67%

I suspect the urban votes are still out so she might still have a chance but this would be an amazing upset if she loses.

[jaichind]

WARISAN is falling apart in Sabah.  Will not surprise me if they are down to the two Apdal brothers

[jaichind]

WARISAN is falling apart in Sabah.  Will not surprise me if they are down to the two Apdal brothers

And Kota Belud

Ooops.  I missed that. 

[jaichind]

Whoof, PKR bigwig Saifuddin Nasution goes down by an unexpectedly large margin in Kulim Bandar Baharu. Another casualty of the Kedah PN wave.

PH also picks up a GTA seat that I had tipped to go elsewhere, P149 Sri Gading in Johor.

Kedah is a place where the PN wave actually hit PH just as much as BN

[jaichind]

OK, this is getting objectively hilarious. BN is going to be locked out of Melaka with their one current seat of Jasin falling to PN.

Last year's state election in reverse.

[jaichind]

https://luminews.my/ge15 in terms of leads has it at

PH         67
PN         43
GPS       21
BN         20
GRS         4 (PN in Sabah)
Others      3 (1 pro-PH PBM in Sarawak, 1 PPBM rebel in Sabah, 1 KDM in Sabah)
WARISAN  2

PH is not winning enough seats to try to form a government. 

[jaichind]

PAS might emerge as the largest party in terms of MPs in Peninsular Malaysia beating out DAP

[jaichind]

PKR holds P15 Padang Serai breaking the PN clean sweep of the North