Nigerian Presidential Election, February 25, 2023

[jaichind]

Stears projection

[jaichind]

Will be a big deal if Peter Obi is elected because he is an Igbo. Might bring out tensions from the Biafra conflict.

[jaichind]

Stears projection

This isn't a projection or exit poll from today
https://twitter.com/setting923/status/1629475026213777408

Correct.  Sorry, I should have made it clear that it was a pre-election survey.

[jaichind]

Obi could really struggle on those numbers due to the state votes requirements.
I think Tinubu has this but I hope I'm wrong.

If Obi wins a plurality I doubt he can avoid a runoff.  And in a runoff, they could re-run the Biafra war of the North and West uniting to take on the East.

[jaichind]

This looks like a pre-election poll.  I do not see how someone can vote for "undecided" in an election

[jaichind]

It seems by now there should be some results but none are forthcoming.  No idea why there are delays.  My guess is an organizational mess.

[jaichind]

Eyeballing results https://www.stears.co/elections/2023/president/ so far it seems regional variations are even greater than in 2019

[jaichind]

The results so far do not look so good for Obi.  He is running about the same as Atiku in Igbo-heavy areas but far behind Atiku in the West and North.

[jaichind]

Watching the election commission press conference gave me the impression that they had never heard of something called excel.  There seem to be massive delays in results and the media roasts the election commission.

[jaichind]

Watching the election commission press conference gave me the impression that they had never heard of something called excel.  There seem to be massive delays in results and the media roasts the election commission.

I warned you about expecting fast results. Lots of the rural area don't have reliable internet, so it may be a case of having to do things slow in those regions.

Yes, but going by the media this year is way worse than previous elections.  It is sort of like the 2020 Dem Iowa Caucus.  It was always chaotic but this time it is several standard deviations worse when compared to previous elections.

[jaichind]

Obi's numbers in the few formal results in the North are disastrous.  Like <1% disastrous.   From an identity point of view, Tinubu is in a strong position as a Muslim Yoruba which means he can capture both West and North votes. Obi will sweep the East and other urban areas but it seems less and less likely he wins a plurality vs   Tinubu.

[jaichind]

LP already claims fraud and rigging.  This is the best sign that Obi has lost. 

[jaichind]

My understanding is the election central server went down in the middle of different counting centers trying to upload results.  This sounds like a rerun of the 1988 Mexico "the system went down."  Still, most things in this world are better explained by incompetence than conspiracy.   I am sure the election commission never did any stress test of their servers if many counter centers try to upload at the same time creating a de facto DOS attack for example.

[jaichind]

LP already claims fraud and rigging.  This is the best sign that Obi has lost. 

Yep, I'm kind of sad though. Obi would've absolutely been a better president than the other two. Hopefully, Atiku pulls through.

Looking at the number so far I still think Obi beats Abubakar for second place.

[jaichind]

What would be the difference between the three main candidates, in practice?

I think Obi of LP is more left-wing while the other candidates are from the Right.  Of course, ideology does not matter.  Identity does.  The way the Northwest voted (Obi <1%) says exactly what they think of Igos.

[jaichind]

Looking at outstanding votes I think Obi narrowly wins Lagos.  He was always going to do well in heavy urban areas even beyond his core region in the East.

[jaichind]

Looking at outstanding votes I think Obi narrowly wins Lagos.  He was always going to do well in heavy urban areas even beyond his core region in the East.

So Tinubu might lose two Southwestern states (Osun and Lagos). Really bad for him.

But is it not his job just to win a plurality and then get >25% in >24 states?  He seems to be in a good position to do both. And even if he does not he seems to be in a good position to win the runoff.

[jaichind]

PDP and LP both are claiming they won and at the same time also claiming fraud and that the results being shown are not legit.  Seems that is a good sign that Tinubu is in good shape.  To be fair, they have a point.  This entire process has been a complete joke but I still think that is an issue of incompetence and not a fraud.

[jaichind]

Using a combo of official results and partial results I have it now at

APC     ~42%
LP       ~20%
PDP     ~31%

[jaichind]

Abia just came in as a Obi lanslide.  Still that just moves the numbers using my formal+informal numbers to

APC   ~41%
LP     ~22%
PDP   ~30%

There are not enough super pro-Obi states out there to close the gap especially when there are a bunch of other anti-Obi states out there with few results in.

[jaichind]

My current count has official numbers from

Abia
Adamawa
Edo
Ekiti
Enugu
Gombe
Katsina
Kwara
Lagos
Ogun
Ondo
Osun
Oyo
Yobe

And unofficial partial numbers from some others.  Right now it is

APC    ~41%
LP      ~21%
PDP    ~30%

I figure I already have at least 1/3 of the vote accounted for.  What is outstanding seems to be even in terms of pro-Obi and anti-Obi votes.  The gap is just too much for Obi to catch up.  And my impression is that Tinubu most likely has >25% in >24 states.  if so he will just win in the first round with a plurality.

[jaichind]

Hold on, my understanding was that you need 25% of the vote in 25 of 36 states and a majority of the popular vote. While Tinubu's even vote distribution makes the first condition a near certainty and he's very likely to ultimately come first, it looks nigh impossible for him to win an outright majority and avoid a runoff.

Me too but I think it is plurality and majority.  I think I thought that is that the last few elections the winner always won an absolute majority so the plurality vs majority was never tested, until this election, of course.

[jaichind]

A bunch of more pro-Obi unofficial results came in

APC     ~38%
LP       ~25%
PDP     ~29%

[jaichind]

I found a bunch more unofficial results, has a combo of pro-Obi and anti-Obi votes. Now I have it at

APC     ~38%
LP       ~24%
PDP     ~29%

[jaichind]

It seems almost certain that Tinubu will cross 25% in at least 25 states so all he needs to do is to hold on to his plurality which also seems very likely.