India 2022 assembly elections Feb/Mar and Nov/Dec

[jaichind]

A hypothetical map: What if every house in India lights a lamp on Deepavali?


Goes to show the heavy population concentration in the Ganges River Valley which in turn seems to map to the Gupta Empire



And if you add in the highly populated areas of Bangladesh (Ganges River Valley) and Pakistan (Indus River Valley) it pretty much adds up to Maurya under Chandragupta

[jaichind]

HP candidate list is mostly out.  Observations

1) BJP clearly trying to beat anti-incumbency by dropping a bunch of sitting MLAs or shifting them around.
2) BJP has imported 2 INC MLAs and 1 INC rebel MLA which is fairly small and shows the level of polarization of BJP and INC that they could not get more INC defections.
3) AAP list is a bunch of mostly nobodies except for a former BJP MLA.  I think APP will struggle to get above 5%
4) INC renominating all sitting MLAs except for the couple that defected from BJP.
5) Some BJP 2017 second-place finishers are renominated but a lot of INC 2017 second-place finishers are renominated.  It seems INC is banking on keeping its core vote intact and waiting for anti-incumbency to give it a victory.  It is not aggressive but history tells us that this works most of the time
6) Given BJP dropped a bunch of sitting MLAs as well as importing a few INC MLAs there is a large-scale rebellion in the BJP.  BJP has a day or two to try to get some of the rebels to back down.  The scale of rebellion in the BJP is somewhat above average in HP elections as an incumbent party but not fatal in my view.
7) Former BJP CM Prem Kumar Dhumal who unexpectedly lost his seat in 2017 losing his chance to become the BJP CM again was not renominated due to age.  His son who is a sitting MP was not nominated for his place which pretty much means that for sure the BJP is going with sitting CM Jai Ram Thakur as its CM candidate.  It is clear that Prem Kumar Dhumal and his clan are not happy with this development and could end up being passive in their support of the BJP campaign.
8 ) INC has its share of rebels but most of them are not as consequential as the BJP rebels

The funniest of the BJP rebellions is
https://thenewzradar.com/family-drama-unfolds-in-himachals-dharampur-assembly-area/

"Family drama unfolds in Himachal’s Dharampur assembly area"

The sitting BJP MLA is not nominated but the BJP decides to go with his son.  His daughter who is the head of the BJP Women's wing in HP was expecting to get the ticket and decided to rebel against her father and brother and will run as a BJP rebel against her brother.

[jaichind]

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/national-politics/bjp-going-into-himachal-pradesh-polls-without-cm-face-1156204.html

"BJP going into Himachal Pradesh polls without CM face"

This is a snub at BJP CM Jai Ram Thakur but most likely done to placate former BJP CM Prem Kumar Dhumal and his faction.  Former BJP CM Prem Kumar Dhumal's son Anurag Thakur is currently a MP but for sure is looking to try to become CM if the BJP wins.  Not having an official CM face is a way to avoid rebellions.
 

[jaichind]

Rahul Gandhi says that twitter has been working with Modi to block new subscribers for his twitter account.

[jaichind]

Still no date for the Gujarat assembly elections.  I have to assume it has to be late Nov at the latest since I would still assume they want the counting day to be the same as the HP election counting day which is Dec 8th.

[jaichind]

Karnataka TV poll for 2023 Karnataka assembly elections

BJP     105
INC      88
JS(S)    29
Others    2

Which is identical to 2018 with INC a bit stronger and JD(S) a bit weaker.  Most likely underestimates INC.

[jaichind]

Asianet News Network poll for Gujarat assembly elections

BJP       138     48%
INC        33      31%
AAP        10      16%

It seems part of the 2017 INC vote base is going over to AAP splitting the anti-BJP vote and leading to a BJP landslide where the BJP vote was left intact from 2017.  The seat distribution seems to indicate the INC->AAP move is uneven with large INC->AAP shifts in urban areas and a lot less in rural areas.

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/several-feared-injured-after-cable-bridge-collapses-in-gujarat-news-agency-ani-3474558

"​91 Killed As Gujarat Bridge Collapses Week After Renovation"

Very bad timing for Gujarat BJP.

[jaichind]

Anti-BJP Lok Poll poll for Gujarat

BJP     112
INC      61
NCP       1  (INC ally)
BTP        1  (INC ally)
AAP       4
Others   3

If Lok Poll has INC losing seats relative to 2017 and AAP gaining 4 seats then for sure INC will lose seats this year and the AAP surge will not be as significant as the hype, it is real.

[jaichind]

Two by-elections coming up in Bihar where RJD is most likely going to win over BJP with support from their partner JD(U).  The main problem for JD(U) is that if RJD wins those two seats then the RJD bloc can get a majority on its own without JD(U).  This could create tension in the RJD-JD(U) alliance.  If 2024 looks like another Modi wave look for Nitish Kumar to do another flip-flop to go back to BJP sometime in 2023 assuming RJD starts to assert its dominance over JD(U) in the ruling alliance.

[jaichind]

Gujarat assembly election schedule announced.  It will be 2 phases, one Dec 1st and one Dec 5th.  Counting will be Dec 8th which is the same as HP.  I suspect that exit polls for HP and Gujarat would come out on Dec 5th.

[jaichind]

CSDS survey on Gujarat

BJP state government is viewed as corrupt and getting worse


Rising prices are a concern


But a large number of people believe that BJP staying in power is good for the state given that BJP is in power at the federal level


Current BJP CM Bhupendrabhai Patel, Modi, and APP leader Arvind Kejriwal are favored to be CM.   Former BJP CM Vijay Rupani is 4th.  INC leader Jagdish Thakor is nowhere in the picture.  Very bad sign for INC.

[jaichind]

Zee poll for Gujarat

         Seat      Vote share
BJP      131         50.0%
INC       47          35.3%
AAP        2            8.9%

 
Muslims :
BJP : 26%, INC : 49%, AAP :15%.

Adivasis :
BJP : 44%, INC :41%, AAP :12%.

OBC :
BJP : 44%, INC : 48%, AAP :2%.

Forward Caste :
BJP : 66%, INC : 22%, AAP : 8%.

Koli Patels:
BJP : 57%, INC : 26%, AAP : 10%.

Thakors :
BJP : 43%, INC : 32%, AAP ; 9%.

Patidars :
BJP : 44%, INC : 33%, AAP : 7%.

Others :
BJP : 68%, INC :25%, AAP : 3%


Looks like INC losing its base to AAP across the board but gaining some OBC votes from BJP. BJP gains some Muslim votes from INC.  BJP has no loss of its Upper Caste base to AAP and gaining back Patel/Patidars  votes from INC is the key to the BJP landslide.

[jaichind]

Betting markets for Gujarat and HP assembly elections

BJP at 130 in Gujarat while BJP is ahead of INC 35-25 in HP

[jaichind]

India TV poll for Gujarat

           Seats      Vote share
BJP       119           51.3%
INC        59           37.2%
AAP         3             7.2%
Others     1

A slight swing toward BJP in 2017 but INC loses some votes to AAP leads to large BJP win



India TV HP poll

          Seats     Vote share
BJP        41           46%
INC        25           42%
AAP         0             2%
Ind          2

Close race between BJP and INC in terms of vote share

[jaichind]

Isudan Gadhvi will be the AAP face for CM in Gujarat.  He was a TV journalist and does have some level of name recognition in Gujarat.   The main problem is that he only joined AAP last year so it will take a while to get voters to link him to AAP.

[jaichind]

This AAP video that just came out which I guess takes a scene from some movie is quite good and funny.  It shows INC CM Charanjit Singh Channi and Navjot Singh Sidhu fighting each other for the Punjab CM seat (represented by the women) and then AAP CM face Bhagwant Mann appears to be the true claimant much to the pleasure of Arvind Kejriwal and anger of Rahul Gandhi

https://twitter.com/i/status/1483337152742461444

It seems AAP is coming out with a similar type of ad for Gujarat promoting its CM candidate
https://twitter.com/AamAadmiParty/status/1588475013203918849

[jaichind]

https://indianexpress.com/article/india/tripura-minors-gang-rape-bjp-8231903/

"Tripura minor’s gang-rape: BJP comes out in support of accused minister’s son"

With Tripura assembly elections coming soon in early 2023 things are not going well for the BJP.  There was a high-profile gang rape case that involve the son of a BJP minister.  it seems the BJP is backing its minister and son in claiming that this is a bum wrap.

In the Hindu heartland, this would be no big deal but this is less true in Bengali and Tribal Tripura.  BJP looking vulnerable might provoke an INC-Left Front-TIPRA (INC tribal splinter) grand alliance to take on BJP-IPFT.

[jaichind]

Assembly by-election results.  Mostly status quo and relatively positive for BJP

Bihar Gopalganj - the death of BJP MLA

BJP        41.6  (backed by LJP(RV))
RJD       40.5  (backed by JD(U)-INC-Left-HAM-VIP)
AIMIM     7.3
BSP         5.3

Back in 2020, it was

BJP         43.7 (backed by JD(U)-HAM-VIP)
BSP        23.1 (has RJD and then  INC background)
INC         20.5 (backed by RJD-Left)

JD(U) vote did not seem to shift to RJD



Bihar Mokama - RJD MLA was convicted of sexual assault

RJD          53.4  (backed by JD(U)-INC-Left-HAM-VIP)
BJP           42.2 (backed by LJP(RV))

Back in 2020, it was

RJD          54.7 (backed by INC-Left)
JD(U)        29.8 (backed by BJP)
LJP             9.3
RLSP          2.8

Again it seems the JD(U) vote did not move toward RJD despite the shift in alliance and instead LJP vote shifted to BJP



Haryana Adampur - INC MLA (key INC faction leader) defected to BJP and ran for re-election

BJP            51.3 (was the 2019 INC winner) (backed by JJP)
INC            39.4
INLD            4.0
AAP             2.6

back in 2019, it was

INC            52.0  (later defected to BJP)
BJP            27.9
JJP             12.6
CPM             1.7
INLD            1.6
BSP              1.6

Core INC vote stayed loyal but part of the old INC MLA vote went with him to BJP along with most of the JJP vote.   The winner, Kuldeep Bishnoi, was the leader of the INC splinter HJC which was allied with the BJP before merging it back into INC in 2016.  Now he rebels again to join BJP.



Maharashtra Andheri East - SHS MLA passed away

SHS(U) nominated the widow of the old SHS MLA and BJP-BSHS under pressure did not field a candidate leading to a walkover win for SHS(U)



Odisha Dhamnagar - BJP MLA passed away

BJP                48.8
BJD               42.9
BJD rebel         5.5
INC                 2.1

back in 2019, it was

BJP               48.7
BJD               45.8
INC                 4.4

A status quo election here is positive for BJP given the fact that BJD is the ruling party.



Telangana Munugode - INC MLA defected to BJP

TRS              42.0
BJP               39.2 (was elected in 2018 as INC)
INC               11.4

back in 2018, it was

INC              49.7 (later defected to BJP)
TRS             38.2
BJP               6.5

The INC MLA defection move to BJP failed and lost re-election.  It seems the INC MLA defecting consolidated the anti-TRS vote around him but enough of the core INC vote remained to prevent him from winning.  Still very bad omens for INC for the upcoming 2023 Telangana assembly elections.




Uttar Pradesh Gola Gokrannath - BJP MLA passed away

BJP              55.9
SP               40.5

Earlier in 2022, it was

BJP              49.0
SP               37.7
BSP             10.5
INC               1.4

Looks like the BSP vote was evenly split between BJP and SP.  This is expected given the fact that BJP is the ruling party.  SP's performance is not bad given the circumstances.

[jaichind]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/tripura-assembly-polls-2023-will-cpi-m-congress-come-together-to-dethrone-bjp-101667738549790.html

"Tripura Assembly polls 2023: Will CPI(M), Congress come together to dethrone BJP?"

More signs of an anti-BJP grand alliance in Tripura made up of INC Left Front and TIPRA.  Grand alliances like this usually do not work as the INC and Left Front vote blocs have historically been hostile to each other.  INC vote went over to BJP in 2018 to defeat Left Front.  There are signs that this INC vote is coming back to INC while BJP continues to eat into the Left Front vote.  Such a grand alliance, while it looks good on paper, could drive those INC votes right back to BJP.

To defeat BJP I think the opposition is best going with INC-TIPRA vs Left Front vs BJP.  This way INC and Left Front can concentrate on getting their respective vote bloc back while BJP deals with large-scale anti-incumbancy.

[jaichind]

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/the-curious-case-of-aap-in-himachal-pradesh-and-gujarat-strategy-or-compulsion-448861

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/almost-missing-in-hp-aap-trying-to-make-inroads-in-guj-448669

Yeah, after I read over the AAP candidate list for HP I concluded that AAP in HP is a big bluff.  I would be curious to see what sort of candidates AAP will field for Gujarat where there are pockets of strength for the AAP.

[jaichind]

HP voting is in progress.  Turnout is around 37% by 1 pm.  Back in 2017 was around 75% in the end.  It is hard to say which side benefits from a higher turnout but my guess is the higher the turnout the better it is for BJP as the very marginal voter are very likely to be pro-Modi.

[jaichind]

Voting is done in HP.  Turnout seems to be around 73% which is slightly down from 2017.  If a higher turnout is good news for BJP then this sort of turnout seems to mean that INC is still in the game.

[jaichind]

https://www.thehindu.com/elections/gujarat-assembly/gujarat-assembly-polls-bjp-faces-rebellion-protests-as-leaders-who-have-been-droppeddenied-tickets-are-sulking/article66131726.ece

"Gujarat Assembly polls | BJP faces protests, rebellion as senior leaders denied tickets"

It seems BJP has already dropped 40 MLAs from their list of candidates.  This includes former BJP CM Vijay Rupani and former BJP DCM Nitin Patel.  It seems the BJP is facing large anti-incumbency and is trying to mitigate it by dropping a bunch of MLAs risking rebellion and hoping that the fresh face can pull in marginal voters while the BJP base vote on party symbol and not candidate name.

[jaichind]

In Gujarat INC-BTP alliance fell through but the INC-NCP alliance is on with the seat split being 179 for INC and 3 for NCP