India 2022 assembly elections Feb/Mar and Nov/Dec

[jaichind]

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/bjp-recasts-parliamentary-board-nitin-gadkari-shivraj-singh-chouhan-dropped-bsy-lalpura-among-6-new-members-422689

"BJP recasts parliamentary board: Nitin Gadkari, Shivraj Singh Chouhan dropped; BSY, Lalpura among 6 new members"

New BJP parliamentary board (really the BJP politburo) out.   

Nitin Gadkari out - He is de facto leader of the non-Modi faction within the BJP.  Before it was to keep your friends close but your enemy closer.  I guess even that rule is out the door and Nitin Gadkari is out.
Shivraj Singh Chouhan - CM of MP.  He actually lost the 2018 MP assembly election and only returned to power in 2020 due to defections from INC.  This move seems to indicate that the BJP no longer believes Shivraj Singh Chouhan as much electoral pull and most likely will be swapped out as CM of MP even if BJP wins the 2023 MP assembly election.

BS Yediyurappa in - Former CM of Karnataka.  This move shows the BJP is nervous about the 2023 Karnataka assembly election and is eager to break their own age 75 rule to accommodate BS Yediyurappa
Sarbananda Sonowal in - Former CM of Assam.  This is a warning to Assam CM Himanta Biswa Sarma whose power is increasing in the Northeast and who has aspirations to be the BJP "king" of the Northeast.  This move tells Himanta Biswa Sarma not to get too cocky and that Modi-Shah has other options if he gets out of line.
Sudha Yadav in - Key OBC leader in Haryana.  A signal to Haryana non-Jat CM Manohar Lal Khattar that he better make sure he runs a tight ship to ensure a 2024 assembly election victory.  Manohar Lal Khattar led the BJP to underperforming results in the 2019 assembly election and needed INLD splinter JJP as an ally to form a majority.   Also a signal to Yadavs that the BJP is willing to fight for their votes.

[jaichind]

Surely the nuanced (and nearest to the truth) answer is "yes they were a colonial power, but became over time a significantly assimilated one"? Aurangzeb's attempts to reverse that trend encountered widespread resistance, and its no coincidence Mughal power collapsed rapidly after his death.

I always felt the Hindu nationalist assignment of  Aurangzeb as some sort of anti-Hindu Muslim fundamentalist fanatic as mapping historical patterns where they did not exist much like Marxist historians often apply class struggle in their analysis of history where it just did not exist. 

Yes,  Aurangzeb is a strict orthodox Sunni Muslim, unlike his father and grandfather.  But we have to separate  Aurangzeb the person and  Aurangzeb the politician.  Yes, Aurangzeb destroyed a bunch of Hindu temples but they were always temples associated with his political enemies.   Aurangzeb also help build and expand various Hindu temples associated with his political allies.  The fact is that  Aurangzeb was a ruthless and vindictive ruler but it was always about loyalty to Aurangzeb not Hindu vs Muslims.

What weakened the Moghul Empire was that Aurangzeb spend over two decades outside of Delhi personally leading an army of Hindus and Muslims fighting a guerilla force made up of Hindus and Muslims of the Maratha Confederacy.  The money he spent on the war and the decay of the Moghul administrative organization while was away from the capital was fatal to the Moghul Empire's future.

[jaichind]

Similar chart as LS redistricting on the population balance between the Dravidian South and the non-Upper Caste Hindu North.

[jaichind]

lok Poll for 2024 LS election

NDA      256
UPA      172
Left         5
Others  110

They do not have a state-by-state breakdown.  Overall seems too negative on NDA.  Note I suspect 1-3 of the Left 5 seats are really part of UPA alliances in TN.  Also KC (which is really KEC) and is most likely part of Left Front alliance in Kerala

[jaichind]

Based on the party breakdown number for the Lok Poll I was mostly above to reverse engineer the breakdown by state.

J&K -  JKN-INC alliance wins 3 seats over PDP in Muslim seats BJP sweeps 2 Hindu seats - same as 2019
HP, Delhi, Gujarat, Uttarakhand, Rajasthan - BJP sweeps all seats just like 2019 (BJP splinter RLP does win 1 seats from BJP)
Haryana - Jat vote shifts away from BJP - BJP 5 INC4 INLD 1 versus a clean BJP sweep in 2019
Punjab - INC and AAP splits seats evenly - INC 6 AAP 6 SAD 1
UP - NDA 58 seats SP-RLD 19 BSP 2 INC 1 - SP-RLD eats but anti-BJP vote and cut into the BJP landslide of 2019
Bihar - JD(U) joining UPA gives it the end - UPA 29 (including 1 from CPI(ML)) BJP 11 - versus a near sweep for BJP-JD(U)-LJP in 2019
MP - BJP loses 2 seats from 2019 to make it BJP 26 INC 3
Chhattisgarh - Tribal vote shifts INC - INC 8 BJP 3 versus BJP 9 INC 2 in 2019
Jharkhand - Tribal votes shifts INC - INC-JMM 10 BJP-AJSU 4 versus BJP-AJSU 12 INC-JMM 2 in 2019
Maharashtra - SHS joins UPA alliance and fights NDA to a draw - BJP-SHS(S) 25 INC-NCP-SHS 23 versus  BJP-SHS 41 in 2019
WB - AITC sweep as anti-BJP votes shifts to AITC with AITC 32 BJP 10 versus AITC 22 BJP 18 INC 2 in 2019
Odisha - repeat of BJD 12 BJP 8 INC 1 of 2019
Karnataka - Anti-BJP vote consolidate around INC with INC 18 BJP 9 JD(S) 1 versus BJP+ 26 INC-JD(S) 2 in 2019
TN and Kerala - UPA near sweep just like in 2019 - AIADMK civil war clearly helps UPA
AP and Telangana - mostly repeat of 2019
Assam and Northeast - mostly repeat of 2019 - INC gains a seat from NPP in Meghalaya
Goa and federal districts - mostly status quo from 2019 - INC flips Lakshadweep from NCP and flips Ladakh from BJP

So this poll mostly assumes changes from 2019
1) Bihar mega alliance will work leading to NDA defeat
2) Anti-BJP vote consolidates in UP leading to gains by SP-RLD
3) Jat votes goes against BJP leading to INC gains
4) Tribal vote moves against BJP leading to INC gains in Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand
5) Anti-BJP vote consolidates around INC in Karnataka
6) INC-NCP-SHS alliance works on the ground in Maharashtra  leading to a draw
7) Anti-BJP vote shifts to AITC in WB

What stays the same
1) Non-UP non-Bihar non-tribal Hindi belt  along with Modi stays loyal to Modi
2) Deep South stays anti-Modi and gives UPA near landslides just like 2019
3) Assam and NE mostly stays the same and keeps the BJP gains made there in 2019

Most of these assumptions are negative for BJP and I doubt all of them could be true at the same time

[jaichind]

https://www.newindianexpress.com/states/telangana/2022/aug/20/amit-shah-tweaks-schedule-may-meet-old-pal-chandrababu-naidu-at-rfc-2489407.html

"Amit Shah tweaks schedule, may meet 'old pal' Chandrababu Naidu at RFC"

There might be moves for the BJP and TDP to revive their alliance.  Of that will drive YSRCP over to UPA or at least a pro-UPA position.

[jaichind]

Lok Poll state-by-state breakdown

Somewhat different from my guess.  They have INC making a mini-comeback in the core Hindi heartland but not doing as well in tribal Hindi areas and Karnataka as I guessed.  INC at 3 seats in UP also points the way to the SP-RLD revival from 2019 which must be a tactical alliance with INC

[jaichind]

https://www.indiatvnews.com/news/india/jharkhand-cm-hemant-soren-mining-lease-case-election-commission-assembly-membership-cancelled-live-updates-bjp-jmm-governor-2022-08-25-802854

"Jharkhand CM Hemant Soren may get disqualified from Assembly, Governor to announce EC report shortly"

Jharkhand JMM CM Hemant Soren might be forced to resign due to corruption charges. If he goes it is not clear if the JMM-INC-RJD government will hold and not fall apart with different MLAs defecting to BJP and BJP forming the government especially when JMM does not have a backup leader in place that can take over.

[jaichind]

https://indianexpress.com/article/india/ec-recommends-disqualification-of-jharkhand-cm-hemant-soren-8111870/

"Mining lease: EC recommends disqualification of Jharkhand CM Hemant Soren as MLA"

ECI recommends disqualification of  Jharkhand CM Hemant Soren as MLA.  If the pro-BJP governor executes on this recommendation Hemant Soren can stay as CM but will need to find a way back into being a MLA in 6 months.

In the meantime, the BJP is demanding a midterm election in which they must feel BJP-AJSU will win over JMM-INC-RJD.

[jaichind]

It seems Jharkhand JMM and INC are likely to shift their MLAs to INC-ruled Chhattisgarh since they now expect a BJP attempt to poach to form a BJP government if Hemant Soren is disqualified as a MLA.

[jaichind]

It seems the BJP got JMM CM Hemant Soren on a technicality.  Hemant Soren owns the mining rights to a small (less than 1 acre) mining area which he got in 2014 and now his government just extended the rights which in theory violates the law.  Of course in reality Hemant Soren is guilty as a lot of mining rights have been given to all sorts of shell companies associated with his wife but that will take years to prove.  The BJP decided to go after the one that is easy to prove but really is an oversight by Hemant Soren.

Now, in theory, if Hemant Soren is removed as MLA he can still stay CM and recontest for his seat within 6 months and come back as a MLA and stay CM the whole time.  The pro-BJP governor is taking his time to implement what ECI has advised exactly, in my view, to try to come up with some legal argument to bar Hemant Soren to be able to continue as CM or not being able to re-contest or both.

[jaichind]

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/jharkhand-congress-mlas-caught-cash-bengal-arrested-1982085-2022-07-31

"3 Jharkhand Congress MLAs who were caught with cash in Bengal arrested"

Back in late July, 3 Jharkhand  MLAs were caught in WB with a large amount of cash.  This could be the tip of the iceberg of the BJP's operation to buy INC MLAs ahead of the expected political crisis in Jharkhand.

[jaichind]

Times Now poll of Gujarat assembly elections

BJP    121
INC     43
AAP     16
Others   2

This sort of poll result indicates that BJP most likely lost vote share relative to the 2017 results and that it is only gaining seats due to the split of the anti-BJP vote toward the AAP.  It shows that AAP is eating into the BJP vote as well as the INC vote.   I suspect this poll is overestimating AAP and underestimating INC.

[jaichind]

INC Prez election will be Oct 17 after many delays in hopes that Rahul Gandhi can be talked into running.  It seems Rahul Gandhi has categorically ruled out running so now the election will be Oct 17 and the INC will have its first non-Gandhi Prez since 1998. 

[jaichind]

Senior INC leader Ghulam Nabi Azad who was the CM of J&K as part of an INC-PDP government from 2005-2008 and then the leader of the Opposition in RS from 2014-2021 quits INC.

His letter of resignation to Sonia Gandhi is pretty funny.  It is a long rambling letter which in the end mostly reads as:

When Sonia Gandhi was in charge and took his advice that is a wise leader takes council from trusted party advisers.

When Rahul Gandhi is in charge and has his own circle of advisers then is a poor leader that has his own coterie of sycophants.






 

While Ghulam Nabi Azad complains about how the INC operates he is not wrong but his real issue is he is no longer an insider.

[jaichind]

Lok Poll for Gujarat

BJP     122
INC      53
AAP        2
NCP        1
BTP        1
OTH        3

If NCP and BTP win a seat each I figure they are part of an alliance with INC.

[jaichind]

INC Prez election will be Oct 17 after many delays in hopes that Rahul Gandhi can be talked into running.  It seems Rahul Gandhi has categorically ruled out running so now the election will be Oct 17 and the INC will have its first non-Gandhi Prez since 1998. 

So who is most likely to became next INC president and will they have real influence over the party?

I do not know who would want to run only to be a puppet of the Gandhi clan. Worse the Prez will caught in the crossfire between those who are aligned with Sonia Gandhi and those who are aligned with Rahul Gandhi. 

Either it will be an ultra-lightweight who is taking the job to be a puppet or it would be a real heavyweight that can resist the Gandhis.  Sachin Pilot from  Rajasthan comes to mind as a possible candidate in the second category.

[jaichind]

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/union-minister-nitin-gadkari-addresses-entrepreneur-bjp-parliamentary-panel-1993477-2022-08-28

"One should never indulge in use and throw, says Gadkari days after being dropped from BJP parliamentary board"

Modi's de facto rival with the BJP Nitin Gadkari takes a shot at Modi by complaining about "use and throw" after being removed from the BJP parliamentary board.  He also talked about Richard Nixon saying "that a man is not finished when he is defeated but is finished when he quits."

His only hope for a comeback is if the BJP receives a setback in the 2024 LS elections and looking at the continued INC implosion this seems unlikely.

[jaichind]

Latest INC CWC where the Gandhi clan attended remotely they were all mums on their views on the upcoming INC Prez election.  It seems within the next month the Gandhi clan will make a call on if they think INC will do well in the upcoming assembly elections (flip HP and get credible result in Gujarat later in 2022, flip MP, flip Karnataka in 2023, avoid landslide defeat in Rajasthan, keep Chhattisgarh in 2023 .)  If they think such a positive outcome is possible then Rahul Gandhi will run in the upcoming INC Prez election.  If they think this is not possible then it make sense to put in a puppet to take the fall if positive results are not achieved.

As for who Gandhi clan have in mind to install as INC Prez if they make the call that Rahul Gandhi will not contest it will most likely be Rajasthan CM Ashok Gehlot.  They could kill two birds with one stone.  Ashok Gehlot is fairly old and have high enough stature that he will not be viewed as a puppet but most likely will be easier to control.  Also this frees up Sachin Pilot to become Rajasthan  CM to make sure he does not rebel.   As mentioned before if the goal is a revamp of INC  Sachin Pilot is a much better choice but he will not be easy for the Gandhi clan to control and he could eventually sideline the Gandhi clan if he can achieve some electoral success.   In the meantime  Ashok Gehlot has rejected any assertions that he will run and indicated that he continues to support Rahul Gandhi to be INC Prez.

Kerala MP Shashi Tharoor it seems could enter the race most likely as the sacrificial opposition candidate to whatever the Gandhi clan comes up with.   Shashi Tharoor  is a well spoken liberal that is the favorite of the pro-Western liberal English language media  will be the darling of the Western liberal media as the leader India needs if he becomes leader of INC.  Main problem is he will not add 1 vote to INC in the Indo-Aryan India in the North as INC Prez.

[jaichind]

https://www.republicworld.com/india-news/politics/back-in-the-nda-fold-chandrababu-naidus-tdp-could-rejoin-alliance-bjp-mulls-move-articleshow.html

"Back In The NDA Fold? Chandrababu Naidu's TDP Could Rejoin Alliance, BJP Mulls Move"

In AP it seems the TDP-BJP alliance might be back on again.  TDP-BJP had an alliance from 1999-2004 but was broken after the alliance was defeated by INC in 2004.  In 2014 TDP-BJP formed an alliance to break back the rising YSRCP but was broken in 2018 as TDP shifted to a pro-INC position and formed an alliance with INC in Telangana.  Now for the 2024 LS election TDP sees a chance at beating YSRCP if they rope in BJP.  On paper, TDP is still an INC ally in Telangana and I suspect that BJP will demand that TDP break that alliance first before BJP will ally with TDP in AP.  If such an alliance takes place it will push YSRCP toward the anti-BJP camp and solidify TRS's anti-BJP orientation in Telangana.

I think BJP is smarter not to form such an alliance.  BJP should be neutral and let YSRCP and TDP battle it out with the winner taking a pro-BJP stance on national issues in return for the flow of federal subsidies since the BJP is now the natural party of governance. 

[jaichind]

INC campaign poster in Gujarat.  With no CM face the INC falls back on the Gandhis

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/nitish-kumars-jdu-to-withdraw-support-from-bjp-led-government-in-manipur-3300923

"​HomeAll IndiaNitish Kumar's JDU To Withdraw Support From BJP-Led Government In Manipur
Nitish Kumar's JDU To Withdraw Support From BJP-Led Government In Manipur"

JD(U) is most likely to end support for the BJP government in Manipur.  The NDA government has a massive majority so this makes no difference.  4 out of the 7 JD(U) MLAs were defectors anyway so it would not surprise me that most of not all JD(U) MLAs will defect to BJP.

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/nitish-kumars-jdu-to-withdraw-support-from-bjp-led-government-in-manipur-3300923

"​HomeAll IndiaNitish Kumar's JDU To Withdraw Support From BJP-Led Government In Manipur
Nitish Kumar's JDU To Withdraw Support From BJP-Led Government In Manipur"

JD(U) is most likely to end support for the BJP government in Manipur.  The NDA government has a massive majority so this makes no difference.  4 out of the 7 JD(U) MLAs were defectors anyway so it would not surprise me that most of not all JD(U) MLAs will defect to BJP.

Just like I expected 5 out of 7 JD(U) MLAs in Manipur joins BJP.   They had no connections to JD(U) anyway.  Most of them wanted to run for BJP but BJP went with someone else so they ran for JD(U) and won.  BJP was always where they wanted to end up to collect their share of the loot of being in the ruling party.

[jaichind]

I know its early but is it possible for the INC to lose Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan next year and if they do what repercussions would it cause

I think it is 100% certain INC will lose Rajasthan in 2023 and while in theory, it should hold Chhattisgarh in reality it is better than 50/50 it will lose Chhattisgarh due to INC infighting there.   As for impact, it will have to be considered with possible INC gains.  There is some chance that INC can flip HP later this year and have a credible performance in Gujarat like in 2017.  INC could also flip Karnataka in early 2023 and outperform in Tripura.  As for the late 2023 elections, INC could also flip MP.  I think if INC outperforms in those elections then the losses of  Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan will not be a big deal.  If not then whoever is INC Prez will have to be out and the decline of INC could become irreversible with no real chance of recovery even after Modi moves on.

[jaichind]

Hmm interesting, so it does seem like 2023 is a make or break year for the INC and it seems like they have to make gains elsewhere as well to have a chance of recovery in the future. It does seem like the AAP will replace the INC at some point this decade at this point and anecdotally from what I have heard from Indian politics discussion among family and family friends, they seem to think that will happen.

I am very skeptical that AAP can emerge as a real national alternative to BJP and displace INC along the way.  AAP has not shown itself to be able to win votes in the rural Hindi heartland.  At least INC still has some prospects of doing this.   AAP was and still is an urban middle-class party in limited areas plus its Punjab outpost.   If and when INC does falter to a point where it is not really a national party I think the world will become more like the 1950s and early 1960s where the BJP, like INC in the 1950s and early 1960s, is the dominant national party and all sorts of opposition parties with national aspirations become the opposition on a state by state basis with the main difference that the BJP has a much heavier Northern lean with very little support in Draividan areas.