India 2022 assembly elections Feb/Mar and Nov/Dec

[jaichind]

UP phase 1 voting tomorrow for 58 Seats

Results of the last 4 elections (for LS election it is assembly segment results) in these 58 seats

2019 BJP 46 SP 1 BSP 7 RLD 4
2017 BJP 53 SP 2 BSP 2 RLD 1
2014 BJP 57 SP 1
2012 BJP 10 SP 14 BSP 20 RLD 9 INC 5

2012 results show that this phase has RLD (this phase is Jat heavy) and BSP relatively strong (BSP leader Mayawati is from this part of UP.)  If RLD and/or BSP underperform her it will be downhill for SP and BSP respectively.

[jaichind]

https://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2022/jan/12/uttar-pradesh-bjp-mla-vinay-shakyas-daughter-says-dad-missing-cop-says-lawmaker-safe-at-home-2405694.html

"Uttar Pradesh BJP MLA Vinay Shakya's daughter says dad missing; cop says lawmaker safe at home"

Another fun family feud election in UP.  In the Bidhuna seat, the 2017 BJP winner Vinay Shakya defected to the SP.  This seems to be influenced by his brother Rekha Shakya but opposed by his daughter Riya Shakya.  Riya Shakya then claimed that Rekha Shakya and SP kidnapped her father and forced him to defect to the SP but when the police looked into the case it appears  Vinay Shakya was at home the entire time and there was no kidnapping.  In the end, his daughter Riya Shakya will run for BJP in this seat while his brother  Rekha Shakya will run for SP with Vinay Shakya's support.

[jaichind]

To get a sense of how the defection game is going in UP I looked at the 311 out 403 seats that candidate list are lockdown down.

I broke the parties into blocs
BJP+   (BJP AD(S) NISHAD)
SP+    (SP RLD SBSP)
BSP
INC

And then look at the 2017 candidates by parties that got a good amount of vote share (>20%) to see the number of defections from one bloc to another.  I count a defection as a defection even if the defector does not run and in some cases, a relative of the defector is running anyway.

                                                    Defect to
                                       BJP+       SP+         BSP        INC
                    BJP+            XXX         15            1            1
                    SP+              12          XXX          8            5
Defect from   BSP               13          24           XXX         3
                    INC                 3          11            2          XXX

It is clear that SP+ is winning the defection game with more BJP+ defections to SP+ than the other way around.  Also, the BSP and INC defectors are by large margins joining SP+.

For the ruling bloc to be behind in the defection game is ominous for the BJP.  And this does not even include Eastern UP where we know a bunch of non-Yadav OBC BJP MLAs has joined SP which are not part of the 311 seats where the candidate list is locked down.  Back in 2017 even though the BJP and SP-INC were neck-to-neck in pre-election polls the BJP was a good deal ahead of the SP-INC in the defection game, especially with respect to defections from BSP.  The result was a massive BJP landslide.  This time around the SP+ lead over BJP+ in the defection game is not as large but is very relevant and indicates that the on-the-ground candidates do not view BJP chances as great as the pre-election polls indicate.

A defection game-based analysis indicates that BJP can at best win a narrow victory and that a BJP landslide can be ruled out with a reasonable chance of SP+ pulling off an upset win.

[jaichind]

Manipur: ECI revises election dates in Manipur.

Assembly elections are to be held on February 28th and March 5th instead of the earlier schedule of February 27th and March 3rd. 

There must be security concerns of insurgent activities or just organizational issues.  Manipur insurgents have been inactive for almost a decade so more likely this is just organizational problems in running the vote.

[jaichind]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/bengaluru/high-schools-colleges-shut-for-3-days-as-hijab-row-turns-violent/articleshow/89439964.cms

"Karnataka: Schools & colleges shut for 3 days as hijab row turns violent"

The Karnataka school hijab ban crisis continues to brew with growing protests and counter-protests.  Schools and colleges have been shut down for 3 days to try to cool things down.

[jaichind]

The first phase of UP voting is over. Turnout is at least 60% and most likely ends up being the same as the 2017 and 2019 levels.  This bloc of seats are very Jat heavy which is expected to swing from BJP to SP-RLD over the farm reform issue.

On the day before the voting Modi remind UP voters that he repealled the far law for the national interests and that he is on the side of farmers.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/pm-modi-farm-laws-repealed-in-national-interest-101644418126058.html

"PM Modi: Farm laws repealed in national interest"

[jaichind]

Thought I also make a defection matrix for Goa

I defections for 2017 candidates that does not run still counts as in many cases relatives of said candidates often run for the new party

The parties are
BJP
INC+ (INC GFP)
AAP
MGP+ (MGP AITC)

                                                     Defect to
                                    BJP         INC+       AAP          MGP+
                      BJP         XXX          2            6                2
                      INC+       12           XXX         0                3
Defect from     AAP           0            2          XXX              0
                      MGP+        2            1            1                0

As already known BJP got a large number of defectors from INC and clearly won the defector battle.  What this chart also shows is that AAP is getting quite a few defectors from AAP.  This seems to imply a possible AAP outperformance.  I still think this is unlikely but the data is the data and I might have to get ready for a possible AAP outperformance vote counting day.

[jaichind]

Similar defection  matrix for Uttarakhand with

BJP
INC
BSP
AAP

                                                Defect to
                                BJP       INC        BSP        AAP
                     BJP      XXX        4           1            0
Defect from    INC       3        XXX          0            1         
                     BSP       0           1          XXX         5
                   
AAP did not run in 2017 so there is no defect from for AAP.  With 90 seats the level of defections is fairly low but INC and BJP are running even in terms of defections which shows that INC as an opposition party is poised to do well.  AAP gaining some defections from BSP indicates that AAP is poised to overtake BSP as the third party.  All things equal with such low churn one cannot extrapolate too much but there are no large-scale INC defections to BJP like in 2017 shows this race will be close and likely to give an INC victory.

[jaichind]

Defection matrix for Punjab

Parties/blocs are

INC
AAP
SAD+ (SAD BSP)
BJP+ (BJP PLC SAD(S))

                                                     Defect to
                                          INC       AAP        SAD+      BJP+
                            INC         XXX        0            1            4
                            AAP           8        XXX          4            1       
Defection from       SAD+        2           1          XXX         8
                            BJP+          0          0            2         XXX

As the ruling INC got a bunch of defections from AAP and clearly won the defection again from AAP.  This does not necessarily mean that INC will outperform as the ruling party is expected to win the defection game.  What is a surprise is that SAD is not losing that many defections to INC but to the BJP+ bloc.  This sort of implies possible outperformance by SAD and BJP or even both.  This chart implies the party that is the most likely to underperform is AAP although it is really a function of the level of anti-incumbency against the INC.

[jaichind]

The night before the first phase of the UP elections Modi gave a nationally televised interview.  During the interview, he attacked family-run castists parties.  Given Western UP was going to vote the next day it was clear he was targeting the SP(Yadavs)-RLD(Jat) alliance.  The BJP has its own family-run castists allies AD(S) (Kurmi) and NISHAD (Nishad) in UP but they are concentrated in Eastern UP where voting will take place a month later.  When voting is about to take place there Modi's message will clearly pivot away from attacks on family-run castists parties. 

This move does show the cleverness of Modi but also shows he is worried about the situation in UP, especially Western UP.

[jaichind]

In Manipur, the UPA seat share distribution seems to be

INC    54
CPI      2
CPM     1
AIFB    1
RSP     1
JD(S)   1

I am pretty sure the seats the INC allies got are all non-win seats.

[jaichind]

https://indianexpress.com/elections/a-contest-to-watch-out-for-couple-in-race-for-bjp-ticket-from-same-seat-7730695/

"A contest to watch out for: Couple in race for BJP ticket from same seat"

For the 2017 assembly a BJP leader, Dayashankar Singh, was going to contest Sarojini Nagar in Lucknow district.  But in 2016 he made derogatory remarks against BSP leader Mayawati and was expelled from the BJP.  Dayashankar Singh maneuvered to get his wife Swati Singh to be the BJP candidate and she won as part of the 2017 BJP landslide.  Soon afterward Dayashankar Singh was let back into the BJP.  This time around Dayashankar Singh wants this seat back and his wife insists on running for re-election.  I suspect this is a maneuver by this couple to put the attention on them and push out any other BJP aspirant for the seat.

In this husband vs wife battle in the BJP "primary", BJP in the end went with the husband former MLA Dayashankar Singh over sitting MLA Swati Singh.  There are rumors that the wife Swati Singh might switch over to SP in anger but she has denied such rumors.

[jaichind]

ADR report indicates that in Punjab 68% of SAD and 50% of AAP candidates have criminal records.

[jaichind]

Modi approval rate by Morning Consulting is still by far the best of all the leaders in the world they are polling.

[jaichind]

India underground betting Satta Bazaar odds

Punjab
AAP     58
INC     34

UP
BJP    234
SP     126
BSP     11

To be fair usually, these betting odds mimic mainstream polls.  In 2021 WB assembly the underground betting odds had BJP with a narrow win in WB when it ended up being a AITC landslide.

[jaichind]

UP phase 1 turnout up/down relative to 2017 by district type.  Muslim heavy and RLD (which are Jat heavy) seats seem to have a higher relative turnout.   One way of reading is that Muslim and Jat turnout is up which should be bad news for BJP.  It could also be read as higher religious polarization which should be good news for BJP.

[jaichind]

A day before the election BJP sources are showing "evidence" that MGP-AITC has the goal of cutting into the Hindu vote to harm the BJP and help INC.  INC sources are saying that BJP admits to the fact that both AAP and AITC are part of a de facto alliance to split the anti-BJP vote.

BJP sources are passing around this article where a key AITC leader says that AITC is about cutting into the Hindu vote to ensure an INC victory


While in an interview senior BJP leader of Maharashtra Nitin Gadkari did speculate that AAP and AITC could cut into anti-BJP vote is being spun by the INC as a BJP alliance with AIT and AAP to take the anti-incumbency vote.


It is clear that both BJP and INC see the race more and more in bipolar terms and are working to try to consolidate its vote against the other from the other parties (AAP MGP-AITC).

[jaichind]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/meri-aankhon-main-pani-aa-raha-hai-kcr-slams-pm-modi-for-assam-cm-s-remarks-on-rahul-gandhi-101644672267817.html

"‘Meri aankhon main pani aa raha hai’: KCR slams PM Modi for Assam CM's remarks on Rahul Gandhi"

TRS leader and Telangana CM KCR have historically taken a balanced anti-BJP anti-INC line in the 2014 LS 2018 assembly and 2019 LS elections.   In 2019 he tried to form an anti-BJP front w/o INC and mostly went nowhere other than getting YSRCP in AP to sort of back him.  Now he is getting more and more anti-BJP and seems less negative on INC.  BJP has been getting stronger in urban Telangana and KCR must now feel that BJP poses a bigger threat to TRS in 2023 Telangana assembly elections than INC.  His internal polls must show that TRS still has the edge over INC in rural Telangana but could lose out to BJP in urban Telangana.

[jaichind]

Most popular surname by state

Singh and Kumar in the Hindi belt are not a surprise.  Patel in Gujarat and Reddy in Andra-speaking states are not a surprise. Patil which is a common Maratha last name is not a surprise for Maharastra.  I am surprised at Shetty in Karnataka which is a coastal OBC last name.  I guess Lingayats and Vokkaligas in Karnataka are split between many different surnames.  I would have no idea what surname would be most numerous in Odisha anyway but Sahu is an Upper caste trader surname.

[jaichind]

There are renewed rumors from BJP high command in Delhi that if BJP falls below 250 seats in UP then UP CM Yogi Adityanath will be out as CM.  This is almost certainly the desire of Amit Shah who would want to ensure no rival to him being Modi's successor.  What Modi thinks is not clear.  Clearly, even if Modi harbors such thoughts he will not disclose them and will be going all out to help Yogi Adityanath win in UP before the vote count.  After the votes are counted might be a different story.

[jaichind]

One more review of the Goa candidate list before voting starts tomorrow shows

a) Out of the 40 2017 winners, only 10 are still with the political formation they were running from in 2017.  The other 30 either defected/rebelled or had retired and had a relative of their defect/rebelled.
b) Out of the 40 2017 second-place finishers, 10 are not running and have not joined another political formation, 10 are still with the same political formation as 2017 and running, and 20 had defected/rebelled or retired and have relatives of theirs defected/rebelled.

This high level of churn is especially high this year but Goa has had a history of large-scale political churn.  The reason for this seems to be the tourist/entrepot nature of the Goa economy.  Each MP/MLA is given development funds for them to deploy in their districts.  So for agriculture-based economies, unless the MP/MLA are made ministers it does not matter THAT much if you are part of the ruling government.   In Gao where there is a lot of surplus value to scoop up, even if you are not a minister being a part of the ruling bloc helps you extract financial and political resources through your influence of local regulations.  Given the higher income in Goa, the development funds each MP/MLA gets are not as useful so alternative ways of getting in on the economic activity would have to be found.  On the flip side, parties have a lot more cash to play with to buy MLAs in Goa given the surplus value they can extract from being in government.  So from both a supply and demand point iof view there is just going to be political horsetrading in Goa.

[jaichind]

ADR report indicates that in Punjab 68% of SAD and 50% of AAP candidates have criminal records.

This chart highlights another fact.  The 2022 Punjab AAP is a very different formation than the 2017 Punjab AAP.  There has been a very high turnover in terms of AAP candidates from 2017 to 2022.  Part of it is because half of the 2017 AAP winners defected to INC.  But beyond that very few of 2017 AAP non-winners were nominated.  The 2017 AAP candidate list had a lot of activists many of which are youth or even student activists which were signs of AAP as an insurgent party. 

This time around AAP has a lot more local kingpins as indicated by the fact that 50% of AAP candidates have criminal backgrounds.  This is a positive signal for AAP to win.  A student activist insurgent party can win in a once in a long time anti-incumbency wave (like Delhi 2013) but to win in the long run you need to gather a coalition of lost vested interests along with a party cadre.   Candidate with a criminal background, even if it is violent (murder rape) and perhaps because it is violent, implies they have their own organization with a high level of control and influence in the local economic ecosystem.   AAP seems to be adopting the BSP model of getting second-tier local kingpins that can bring some local votes to add to the core AAP vote.  Such candidates add to the AAP core vote based on image and the AAP CM face and build a winning coalition.  All things equal 50% of the AAP candidates having a criminal background is a sign of the AAP transformation and is a fairly positive signal for AAP's chances of winning despite a theoretical candidate quality gap in terms of political expereince relative to INC and SAD.

[jaichind]

UP election phase II is tomorrow.  If phase I is Jat Jatav and Muslim heavy, then phase II is Yadav and Muslim heavy.  Phase II will be the worst for BJP and the best for SP.   If SP-RLD failed to deliver a knockout blow against the BJP in phase I and phase II to build momentum for the later phases then a BJP victory cannot be stopped.

[jaichind]

Tomorrow UP Phase II - 55 Seats

Results from 2019 2017 2014 and 2012.  2014 and 2019 are assembly segment results.

2019 BJP 27 SP 14 BSP 14
2017 BJP 38 SP 15 INC 2
2014 BJP 38 SP 15 INC 2
2012 BJP 8 SP 27 BSP 15 INC 3 OTH 2

[jaichind]

Delhi CM and AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal will do a nationally televised interview right before Goa and Uttarakhand vote along with UP phase II.   AAP being able to become a real national party for the 2024 LS election depends on if they can make a real wave in Goa and Uttarakhand as well as a win in Punjab.