Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

Latest CBS poll

Wow, 36% of 18-49 year olds think Russia is an ally/friendly.  That is amazing and objectionably not true of course.

[jaichind]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/19/russia-weapons-production-ukraine-war/

"Russia ramps up weapons production, using mass quantity to outgun Ukraine"

Russia has ramped up weapons production and will be able to maintain an offensive against Ukraine for at least another two years

[jaichind]

House procedural vote passed.  The aid package as good as passed

[jaichind]

Pro-Russian sources claim the capture of  Novomikhailovka

[jaichind]

Depends. Cold War generation is dying so it’s natural that the neoliberal Anti-Russia sentiment that drove past generations will decay a lot even if won’t immediately disappear.

Populism and Nationalist sentiment being high these days in US favors Russia because both the Populist Right and Left have no reasons to see Russia as an adversary. And that’s what’s happening with the Neocons being replaced by Trump conservatives.

I buy the idea that 18-49 year olds are less hostile to Russia than their elders.  I do not for a second buy that 36% of them think Russia is friendly or an ally when this is objectively untrue and Russia itself declares so in no uncertain terms, both in word and deed.

I think they do not think Russia is friendly or an ally but most likely they hate the people they view as being hostile to Russia  (the enemy of my enemy .... )

[jaichind]

https://www.ft.com/content/47ab8286-248d-4fec-80ce-b08ed1409243

"Foreign investor in Ukraine accuses officials of corruption"

Western governments have become increasingly concerned over government corruption in Ukraine but have largely held back from making their criticism public as they rally support for Kyiv to shore up its faltering defence against Russian aggression. The war has given space for many of the corrupt networks linked to former president Viktor Yanukovych to reassemble, European security officials say.

Clearly, many other countries are no better so I am not trying to single out Ukraine.  The point is the political system reflects the culture and not the other way around it does not matter if it is Yanukovych, Poroshenko, or Zelensky. 

This is not to say that culture cannot be changed over time but usually, that is from within.  The underlying culture is not going to change by joining the EU or NATO.  The Ukraine population is making a mistake if they are equating joining X to a culture change which can only come from within.

[jaichind]

By pushing into Ocheretyne it seems the Russians are making the current Ukraine line of defense West of Avdivka vulnerable and most likely will have to fall back to the next line of defense.

[jaichind]

The Russian advance in  Ocheretyne West of Avdivka seems to be on the high ground of the general area.

[jaichind]

After the capture of  Ocheretyne which is West of Avdivka, pro-Russian sources say Russians have moved southward from there to capture Novobakhmutovka

[jaichind]

Russian telegram:

Enemy resources report that our sappers have begun to clear mines and remove mines on the border of Sumy and Kharkov regions.

Soon the month of May

Summer offensive in Kharkiv/Kharkov?

I am skeptical.  One lesson learned from the Ukraine counteroffensive last year is that to pre-announce your offensive ahead of time is a bad idea.  For me, the Russians will focus on Donbass in 2024 and worry about places outside of Donbass in 2025 and 2026.

[jaichind]

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/22/blinken-to-warn-china-over-support-for-russias-military-during-trip.html

"Blinken to warn China over its support for Russia’s military during this week’s visit"

There are talk that Blinken might threaten financial sactions on some PRC firms.  We will see if this is true.  I do know if such threats are mde public then there is no way the PRC will back down. 

[jaichind]

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/22/briefing/ukraine-russia-war-us-aid-package.html

"Ukraine’s New Hope"

The most realistic scenario for Ukraine is probably not a return to the prewar borders. The nation would be smaller, but it could retain most of its territory, then integrate itself economically and strategically with Europe. That’s a lot better than outright defeat.

The problem is that for Ukraine losing some of its most valuable territory is defeat for their point of view.  And "integrate itself economically and strategically with Europe" will not really change the existing economic situation in Ukraine since this is mostly a function of underlying culture and not being part of X or Y unless joining X or Y means free money just flows in for the foreseeable future.

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1782534433393852568

Just to be clear.  This could be a Ukraine trap and they will then come in to cut off the Russian force there.  We will know in a couple of days if that is the case.

[jaichind]

Pro-Russian sources say that Russians are moving into Krasnogorovka

[jaichind]

The parts of Krasnogorovka that the Russians have captured, as per pro-Russian sources, seem to be the high ground and fairly ominous for the Ukrainian forces trying to hold the rest of the town

[jaichind]

It seems Russia can also play this "seisure of assets" game

[jaichind]

Pro-Russian sources say that the Russians are expanding their breech into  Ocheretino by moving into Soloviovo

[jaichind]

Pro-Russian sources say that the Russians are expanding their breech into  Ocheretino by moving into Soloviovo

How did it fall so quickly? Even I didn't expect this.

There are rumors that some of the Russian units here are former Wagner units who have experience and expertise in storming positions.

[jaichind]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/04/24/as-russian-troops-broke-through-ukrainian-lines-panicky-ukrainian-commanders-had-no-choice-but-to-deploy-one-of-their-least-prepared-brigades/?sh=4633b4954e64

"As Russian Troops Broke Through Ukrainian Lines, Panicky Ukrainian Commanders Had No Choice But To Deploy One Of Their Least-Prepared Brigades"

Ocheretino's fall seems to due to an issue of troop rotation on Ukraine's side where the brigade that is suppose to take over Ocheretino's defenses just failed to take their position.

[jaichind]

Russian media calculations on how much collective West assets in Russia they might seize in response to collective West seizing Russian assets.  One problem is I suspect a lot of the Cyprus "foreign assets" are really held by Russians.  Cyprus is like the Russian Cayman Islands.  Also, I think this report understates the amount of Russian assets frozen by the collective West.  Still, the chart does show that net-net the total net asset gain from a seizure MAD is not as large as many might believe.

[jaichind]

https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-russia-war-abrams-tanks-19d71475d427875653a2130063a8fb7a

"Ukraine pulls US-provided Abrams tanks from the front lines over Russian drone threats"

But the battlefield has changed substantially since then, notably by the ubiquitous use of Russian surveillance drones and hunter-killer drones. Those weapons have made it more difficult for Ukraine to protect the tanks when they are quickly detected and hunted by Russian drones or rounds.

[jaichind]

Pro-Russian sources say the Russians are capturing all the high ground in and around Krasnogorovka

[jaichind]

In response to the USA putting pressure on the PRC to cut trade ties with Russia, the PRC calls for UN investigate the sabotage of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline

[jaichind]

Pro-Russian sources say that the Russians are nearly encirclement of a Ukrainian unit West of Berdichy.

[jaichind]

Moscow gets ready for a display of captured NATO weapons

https://twitter.com/cheguwera/status/1783853446199701504