Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/02/allies-consider-moving-ukraine-arms-group-into-nato-to-shield-it-from-trump-00150151

"Trump-proofing weapons for Ukraine: Allies consider moving arms group into NATO"



This sounds like mostly PR.  Without USA there is no NATO

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-03/russia-is-outpacing-ukraine-s-allies-in-the-race-for-ammunition?embedded-checkout=true

"Moscow Is Outpacing Ukraine’s Allies in the Race for Ammunition"

After talking about how F-16 was going to change the war for Ukraine once they get them there are already signs of hedging now some F-16s will show up in limited numbers later this year on the exact impact they are expected to have

“But often, we just don’t get the weapons systems at the time we need them — they come when they’re no longer relevant,” another senior officer said, citing the F-16 fighter jets as an example. A dozen or so F-16s are expected to be operational this summer, after basic pilot training has been completed. “Every weapon has its own right time. F-16s were needed in 2023; they won’t be right for 2024,” he said.

[jaichind]

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-economy-oil-price-increase-impact-tax-revenue-western-sanctions-2024-4

"Spiking oil prices helped Russia energy-tax revenue double last month"

It seems this is partly driven by the narrowing of the Ural crude discount.  Over time the market adjusts to collective West sanctions toward a new price equilibrium for Ural crude.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-03/ukraine-tackles-gambling-addiction-within-its-military-ranks?embedded-checkout=true

"Ukraine Tackles Gambling Addiction Within Its Military Ranks"

"UAF soldiers are mortgaging military equipment to pay off debts."

[jaichind]

Pro-Russian sources say that Russias are moving in on a possible encirclement of Novomikhailovka

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-03/us-house-s-ukraine-war-aid-vote-is-likely-weeks-or-more-away?embedded-checkout=true

"US House’s Ukraine War Aid Vote Is Likely Weeks or More Away"

This is  Speaker Johnson's latest scheme to try to turn the Ukraine aid package into a bunch of loans as opposed to grants.

[jaichind]

https://tass.com/economy/1770193

Rosstat says that unemployment in Russia fell to a record low of 2.8% in February and that real wages in Russia in January 2024 increased by 8.5% in annual terms.  This is pretty much a repeat of the Vietnam war driven economic surge in the USA in the late 1960s.

[jaichind]

https://unherd.com/2024/04/its-time-to-send-nato-troops-to-ukraine/

"It’s time to send Nato troops to Ukraine"

“Nato countries will soon have to send soldiers to Ukraine, or else accept catastrophic defeat.”

Professor Edward Luttwak advocates for NATO troops to intervene in Ukraine

[jaichind]

https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/victoria-spartz-ukraine-aid-69ef4ed1

"The Only U.S. Lawmaker Born in Ukraine Is Now Skeptical of More Aid"



The only, GOP, member of the USA House that is from Ukraine is now opposed to more aid to Ukraine.  Makes sense.  It does not matter where she is from.  Her core GOP base in her district is now against more aid to Ukraine.

[jaichind]

A Ukraine poll has 45% believe that Ukraine will return to its 1991 borders.  Back Sept 2023 it was 68%

[jaichind]

https://espreso.tv/viyna-z-rosiyeyu-vidteper-prichinoyu-zvilnennya-z-viyskovoi-sluzhbi-mozhe-buti-lishe-nepridatnist-pravozakhisnitsya-denisova

"From now on, the reason for dismissal from military service can only be unfitness, - human rights defender Denisova"

[jaichind]

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/04/04/majority-of-eu-voters-in-favour-of-ukraine-joining-the-eu-exclusive-ipsoseuronews-poll-fin

"Majority of EU voters in favour of Ukraine joining the EU, exclusive IPSOS/Euronews poll finds"

Poll on Ukraine joining EU

For/Against   45/35

Finland          68/13
Portugal        68/15
Spain            68/21
Sweden         58/15
Poland          56/26  (pretty good numbers for Ukraine given recent issues with farm products)
Denmark      55/21
Romania       54/40
Netherlands  42/32
Italy             41/33
Belgium        40/37
Germany      40/41
Greece         38/43
Austria         34/50
France          32/44
Bulgaria        31/49
Slovakia        24/46
Hunhary        18/54

[jaichind]

Pro-Russian sources say that the Russians have entered into the Eastern section of Chasov Yar.  If so the battle for Chasov Yar has begun.

[jaichind]

https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/04/politics/ukraine-munition-shortages/index.html

"Western officials warn munition shortages could be catastrophic for Ukraine as US stalls on providing more aid"

Ukraine’s shortage of ammunition and military equipment resulting from the US and its allies’ struggle to resupply the country’s military is having an increasingly dire effect on the battlefield, US and NATO officials are warning, as Russia intensifies its attacks on Kyiv’s dwindling air defenses knowing that they likely won’t be replenished anytime soon.

[jaichind]

Current map in the battle of Chasiv Yar from pro-Russian sources

[jaichind]

https://www.repubblica.it/esteri/2024/04/05/news/ingresso_nato_ucraina_russia-422425005/?ref=RHLF-BG-P8-S1-T1

"Kiev in NATO after the surrender: the scenario Europe fears if Trump wins the elections"

La Repubblica talks about a possible peace deal if Trump wins which would involve Russia keeping all the territories it has captured in return for what remains of Ukraine joining NATO.  I doubt Putin would accept such a deal even if it were offered.  The reality the mere offer of such a deal would mean the fall of the Zelensky government which would make such an offer very remote.

[jaichind]

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/04/world/europe/ukraine-nato-stoltenberg-russia.html

"NATO Wants to Show Support for Ukraine, but Only So Much"

Admitting Kyiv is a nonstarter as long as the war with Russia is raging. But the member nations want to show they are supporting Ukraine “for the long haul.”

Again, what is the point of joining NATO if Ukraine can only join after defeating Russia?  It is like women telling a man "I will date you once you date a supermodel" 

[jaichind]

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/04/pentagon-ukraine-weapon-shipments-00150639

"Pentagon defends pace of weapon shipments as Ukraine worries it’s too late"

[jaichind]

It's pretty funny how you can go from

2022 Dec


to

2024 April



Of course Blinken says that it is because of the PRC

[jaichind]

https://news.liga.net/en/politics/news/shmigal-za-poslednie-nedeli-rossiya-unichtozhila-80-ukrainskih-tets

"80% of Ukraine's thermal power infrastructure destroyed by Russia in recent weeks, PM Shmyhal says"

Ukraine's PM says 80% of Ukraine's thermal power infrastructure was destroyed.   Clearly Ukraine can count on net energy transfer EU states to stay afloat in term of energy

[jaichind]

Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries continue to effect the Russian economy:

"Diesel loadings from #Russia's three major ports on Black and Baltic Seas, including some volumes originating in Belarus, are set to fall to ~2.29m tons in April. That equates to just over 569k b/d, down 21% vs actual daily exports from same ports in March"

https://twitter.com/olyatanas/status/1775127939002081637?s=20

From Bloomberg:

Russia Oil Refining Recovers in Early April as Repairs Gain Pace

Russia’s refineries processed more crude in the first days of April as some of the nation’s major plants restored operations halted by Ukrainian drone attacks. 

The impact of the drone strikes on Russian crude processing is diminishing because most of the affected facilities have been able to repair damaged equipment, partly or completely restoring capacity. Some other plants have also increased their throughput to compensate for the damaged facilities, ensuring domestic fuel demand is met.

[jaichind]

It does seem that Putin's manpower issues have declined significantly...

From ISW

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-5-2024

The recently intensified tempo of Russian offensive operations in Ukraine will likely result in increased manpower and materiel losses, but the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) appears to be successfully mitigating these losses.

ISW seems to admit whatever losses the Russians are suffering they can be replaced.

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-may-run-out-air-defence-missiles-if-russia-keeps-up-bombardment-2024-04-06/

"Ukraine's Zelenskiy warns of dwindling air defence missiles"

He singled out in particular the need for Patriot air defence systems and said Ukraine needed 25 of them.

Just to be clear.  The USA has around 50 batteries.  So what Zelensky wants is half the Patriot systems that the USA has.

[jaichind]

Pro-Russian sources say that Russians captured Bogdanovka which is Northeast of Chasov Yar

[jaichind]

https://www.newsweek.com/trump-rnc-chair-whatley-says-ukraine-us-adversary-republicans-1887731

"Trump's RNC Chair Includes Ukraine in List of US Adversaries"

Michael Whatley, Donald Trump's hand-picked Republican National Committee (RNC) chair, lumped in Ukraine with China and Iran when listing the United States' "aggressive" adversaries on Fox News' Sunday Morning Futures.