Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

Latest top secret US intelligence briefing to Prez Biden gaming out likely Putin moves in the next few days

https://youtu.be/z77JFw2D6f8?t=35

[jaichind]

I am sure in a week or two once the Russian invasion does not materialize the Biden administration will lionize Joe Biden as Joe "von Manstein" Biden who stopped the Soviet ..... er sorry .... the Russian offensive even before it started.

[jaichind]

Ukraine joining NATO at this point is about as likely as Turkey ever joining the EU.
 

So why not tell Putin that publically.  If Russia invades then Putin will have a hell of a job trying to explain to his people why Russian blood needs to be bleed on something the West and Ukraine is already making concessions on.

[jaichind]

The Russian invasion date is most likely the same date as the date Saddam will attack with his WMD.

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1493672265942241280

Just to push back on some more inane Putinist narratives

Just to be clear.  Putin raised the issue of genocide (which I agree is inappropriate) only in response to Scholz's defense of NATO intervention in Kosovo without UN mandate because, as per Scholz, there was genocide in Kosovo.   The word genocide has been so inflated and politized as to lose any real meaning anyway but in this conversation, it was not Putin that started it. 

[jaichind]

because of the full moon (light from which is often seen as beneficial for night operations),

Reminds me of India PM Modi in the 2019 India LS election campaign claimed that in a recent retaliatory  airstrike against Pakistan  the Indin airforce avoided radar detection due to clouds.

PM Narendra Modi, in an interview, said that he had suggested that clouds and rain could prevent Pakistani radars from detecting Indian fighter jets during the Balakot air strike.

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/controversy-over-pm-narendra-modis-cloud-can-help-us-escape-radar-comment-on-balakot-air-strikes-2036402

Of course none of this nonsense stopped Modi from winning that election by a landslide

[jaichind]

I don't know how expensive that is, but Russia has gradually made build up in months now. Why wouldn't Putin afford wait month(s) more? Moreover, the price of oil has gone up by 10-25$ because of that, which means a lot of "extra" $$$ every day to Putin.

Yeah.  I am not sure what is behind all this war talk from the USA but so far the impact has been

a) Not helping on the inflation front in USA and Western Europe as energy prices surge
b) Clearly an economic boom to OPEC and Russia as energy prices surge
c) Creating clearly economic problems in Ukraine which clearly increases Putin leverage over Ukraine

[jaichind]

As for the invasion date predictions is clear as day where the USA prediction logic is coming from.  It is the coming of rasputitsa.  Anyone that looked at the post-Stalingrad early 1943 campaign in Eastern Ukraine makes it clear what is going on. There were intense battles between German and USSR forces with Kharkiv changing hands twice but all operations pretty much stopped mid-March after German forces captured Kharkiv but could not advance into the Kursk salient due to the melting snow halting all armed formations on both sides.  The clash for Kursk will have to wait until the Summer of 1943.  It is clear the USA logic is to start with Russia has to be done by mid-March including cleanup so they HAVE to start in mid-Feb.  

None of this has to do with intention but with capabilities due to weather conditions.

[jaichind]

Let's say the USA had real intelligence that is pretty much a smoking gun on a Russian invasion.  

How should they handle it?  

One thing they should NOT do is to have "unnamed senior intelligence sources" tell the media and put it all out there.  Doing so merely embarrasses Russia and might provoke them to do something so they do not lose face to their own population.

What would make sense is a behind-the-scenes contact with someone high up in Russia and ideally Putin and show him the evidence.  Then say to Putin: We know, you know that we know and we know that you know that we know.  Let's cut this out because if you do we already have our own "men in black" on the ground in Ukraine and even Russia that could do all sorts of stuff.  Let's instead chat about why you want to do this and we can even bring in Ukraine to do some offline deals and compromises and diffuse this.  You will not get everything you want but an invasion will get you less.

Given this, I am convinced the USA only has circumstantial evidence as well as their projections on what is going on in Putin's mind.

[jaichind]

Another victory for Russia for this crisis going public is

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/swift-off-russia-sanctions-list-state-banks-likely-target-us-eu-officials-2022-02-11/

"SWIFT off Russia sanctions list, state banks likely target -U.S., EU officials"

Now Russia knows that cutting Russia off SWIFT is not an option.  Again a public version of this crisis only serves to strengthen Russia's hand.

[jaichind]

Another victory for Russia for this crisis going public is

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/swift-off-russia-sanctions-list-state-banks-likely-target-us-eu-officials-2022-02-11/

"SWIFT off Russia sanctions list, state banks likely target -U.S., EU officials"

Now Russia knows that cutting Russia off SWIFT is not an option.  Again a public version of this crisis only serves to strengthen Russia's hand.

All those damn Euros think about is their bank accounts. Some Russian dude said taking away SWIFT was almost as bad as nuking Moscow, and in effect a declaration of war. And what percentage of the population has a clue what SWIFT is? The media assumes that percentage is co-extensive with being literate, since they assume that we all know what is means.  Apparently bank green eye shade types know what it means, and that is has something to do with their paycheck being drawn against good funds. See below.

"European lenders have expressed concern that banning Russia from SWIFT would mean that billions of dollars of outstanding loans they have in Russia would not be repaid."

SWIFT is really just a messaging system.  If Russia does get cut off from SWIFT they can switch to the PRC version of SWIFT that they have been developing and further push Russia into the economic grip of the PRC.  Still SWIFT is sort of a MAD weapon where both Russia and EU lose big time if Russia is shut off from SWIFT mostly due to impact on the energy trade.  Taking it off the table publically is still bad as now Russia knows how far you are willing to go which is not very far.

[jaichind]

2049 July 3rd NYT Front Page

1. Americans get ready for must needed rest on July 4th holiday
2. New York City mayoral race heats up
3. Top intelligence officials say that Russian invasion certain to take place within the week

[jaichind]

I have a feeling one of Putin's main objectives is to use this as bargaining chip to legitimize Crimea annexion and essentially get Donbass regions recognized as independent or part of Russia?

I agree that these are going to be things Putin will want to get out of this.  A Russia-Ukraine compromise to me would be something like

a) Russia continue to use Ukraine transit state for gas which would continue much needed Ukraine government revenue
b) Ukraine carries out Minsk II which gives autonomy to the Donetsk republics
c) water rights for Crimeria - Ukraine has cut off water to Crimea since 2014 and Russia has to move in the water there at great expense
d) Ukraine formally giving up joining NATO

I suspect it is d) that is the main sticking point now.

[jaichind]

I have a feeling one of Putin's main objectives is to use this as bargaining chip to legitimize Crimea annexion and essentially get Donbass regions recognized as independent or part of Russia?

I agree that these are going to be things Putin will want to get out of this.  A Russia-Ukraine compromise to me would be something like

a) Russia continue to use Ukraine transit state for gas which would continue much needed Ukraine government revenue
b) Ukraine carries out Minsk II which gives autonomy to the Donetsk republics
c) water rights for Crimeria - Ukraine has cut off water to Crimea since 2014 and Russia has to move in the water there at great expense
d) Ukraine formally giving up joining NATO

I suspect it is d) that is the main sticking point now.

Your list does not seem to include Russia giving up anything other than not invading for the moment. I don't think that dog will hunt or should hunt. It has eerie echoes of the forced relinquishment of the Sudetenland.

In one sense Russia has already lost, because unless the West is into the suicide mode, it cannot allow itself to be economically entangled with Russia to the point that it can be coerced to bend over. It's time for something akin to an economic divorce at least up to the point that when Russia is a bad boy, it can be cut off without undue economic pain.

It is also a warning shot about China, which will soon be a co super power with the US. That is a very sobering thought since it has the economic power, or soon will, to do just about anything it wants. 1951 was a good year to be born as an American. It really was. Good luck to you all.

a) Russia continue to use Ukraine transit state for gas which would continue much needed Ukraine government revenue

is actually a big concession since once Nord Stream II goes live then Ukraine will lose almost all gas transit revenue which makes up 18% of Ukraine government revenue.

I think rolling back NATO is a medium-term crisis meaning if Russia does not see progress on this in the next couple of years I can see Russia getting very aggressive.

The current crisis in my mind is about Nord Stream II and Western intra-alliance discipline.  Germany needs Nord Stream II or else its industrial economy will become uncompetitive.  The USA does not want Germany to further its economic links to Germany ergo a crisis has to be created to force Germany to give up Nord Stream II. When Germany does not budge the crisis has to be made bigger to increase the pressure on Germany.   Clearly, the USA can sanction Nord Stream II but that will turn the German people against the USA.  So Nord Stream II has to be shut down but the blame pinned on the Russians.

[jaichind]

Macron Proposed Putin-Biden Summit, Accepted by Both Sides: AFP

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/leonidragozin/status/1495556662022844420

It is not a  terrible strategy if USA's plan is one of delay.  Namely if the Russian invasion can be delayed until March then the coming of rasputitsa would mean that it would be May at the earliest until Russian can invade again.  On the flip side delay tends to work against Ukraine as the longer this status quo lasts the worst its economic crisis gets worse.

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/leonidragozin/status/1495556662022844420

It is not a  terrible strategy if USA's plan is one of delay.  Namely if the Russian invasion can be delayed until March then the coming of rasputitsa would mean that it would be May at the earliest until Russian can invade again.  On the flip side delay tends to work against Ukraine as the longer this status quo lasts the worst its economic crisis gets worse.

Well, I (and many others) just really doubt that "exposing" true date would actually prevent Putin from invading.

I agree most likely it will not work from a prevention point of view.  It also has a great risk of provoking Russia into invading if it was 50/50 since it will look weak in the eyes of the Russian population if it did not.  Russia's counter to this risk, of course, is to troll the USA "warnings" but that does box them in terms of options for future action.  For Russia to invade now "something significant" will have to take place.  That something of course could be a Russian "false flag" operation OR a Ukraine "false flag" operation that is meant to provoke the sanctions they have been lobbying for.  Time is not on Ukraine's side so Ukraine does need to provoke sanctions on Russia soon to equalize the economy on both sides.

[jaichind]

US equity futures which had surged on French news of a possible Biden-Putin summit last night has now fallen back down to levels before that news broke.

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/noahbarkin/status/1494999291802312708

This is why Russia is making the crisis about NATO expansion and not Ukraine.  It will be easier for Russia to get PRC support if the crisis is about NATO expansion.  The word "separatists" is a big no-no for PRC.

[jaichind]

Wouldn't be surprised if Putin recognize Donbass independent today.

Russian equities down 15% on this news

[jaichind]

Wouldn't be surprised if Putin recognize Donbass independent today.

Russian equities down 15% on this news

Yeah. And Putin hasn't officially done it yet 🙉🙈🙊.

Though, probably 95% he will. Unless Macron calls him right now...

I think this is a bad idea.  Putin has to explain to the Russians, potential allies, and other powers what is different today versus say a year ago to justify this.  He is also throwing about any leverage over Ukraine.

[jaichind]

I honestly don't understand the Ukrainian strategy at all: they're not well-prepared for a war they have a pretty good idea is coming and has been telegraphed for 3 months, they seem to want this war for their nation's defense to be fought by other state's militaries, been given aid by other countries for their own troops to use but been told repeatedly other country's troops will not enter Ukraine to fight the Russians for them, yet want harsh punitive measures on Russia now that would just help the war that has a marginal chance of not occurring to even more certainly take place since the Russians would have less to lose. This is suicide.

The best thing I can come up with is Zelensky and his aids have written off eastern Ukraine, written off Crimea (I don't know if they've written off Kiev or not, we may see the capital move west), they know they'll lose a war, but they won't give up anything diplomatically to serve the broader longer-term purpose of NATO membership/EU membership for whatever Ukrainian remnant exists, and after the war use the victim card to say "NATO and Europe did not help us to the degree necessary and thousands of Ukrainians died because of your inaction" to shame their way into these alliances. Is that playing games with the lives of your citizens? Yes. I'm fully expecting Zelensky to blame the U.S. if war occurs and Ukraine loses, blaming America for all your country's problems is a global sport after all and plays well at home.

If Zelensky really believes that a massive Russian invasion is coming he should pull his troops back and have units in place to cut off roads and bridges in Eastern Ukraine as soon as Russian troops move in.    He should also put Eastern Ukraine under quarantine and prohibit civilian access to key communications nodes so the Russians are denied intelligence on what the Ukrainian forces are up to in Eastern Ukraine.

BTW, if the Russians were going to attack they will do the same (quarantine and prohibit civilian access to key communications nodes( on their side of the border.  The fact that neither side is doing this indicates to me both sides do not expect a major conflict to break out.

[jaichind]

It was Naryshkin, the head of  Foreign Intelligence Service, LMAO. He was sh*tting his pants, it seemed.

https://twitter.com/SimonOstrovsky/status/1495792765279551488

Sounds like a "good cop bad cop" routine where Putin is the good cop

[jaichind]

Well that was an interesting meeting. Difficult to know what to make of it, could be the prelude to escalation or a climbdown. Seemed very much choreographed for the domestic audience.

So you still think, that main scenario is to invade Ukraine taking Kiev (on Feb 16th)?  

Well, one can argue that recognizing the independence of the Donetsk republics, Russia is goading Ukraine to take aggressive action at the border which in turn can justify a massive Russian military response.  It can be read as a false flag by other means.  It could also mean that from here Russia has done "enough" to satisfy its domestic pressure and can now deescalate from here.

[jaichind]

Question: Does Russia recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states?  Last I recall it was no but I could be wrong about that.