Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

Just wanted to say I haven't posted here and don't expect to be, but thank everyone for the important updates, and respect to anyone here who's been calling out Putin's thuggish aggression and fighting Russian propaganda in this very thread. I don't have the emotional energy to do the same right now, but I want to make it clear where I stand. I'm in awe at the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people, and ashamed as a European that the EU isn't doing more to stand up to Putin. We should not be buying a single cent worth of Russian gas right now. I'll happily spend the next Winter in the cold if that's what it takes.

Why do you ask the EU to do what even the Ukrainians are not willing to do?  Right now a record level of Russian gas is flowing through Ukraine pipes to reach EU economies and collecting the transit fees, of course.  If Ukraine really thinks that hitting Russia hard is the right thing to do they should just shut off that gas and give up that transit fee?  In the end, even Ukraine needs money.  There is a Mexcian saying "With money, the dog dances, without money one dances like a dog."

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/MorawieckiM/status/1497533422146887684

Polish PM Mateusz Morawiecki:

Today I spoke again with the Prime Minister of Hungary, V. Orbán. And he once again assured me of his support for far-reaching sanctions against Russia. Including about blocking the SWIFT system.

with Cyprus also supporting, Germany looking increasingly isolated now.

One can argue Germany is playing the role of Joe Manchin on the BBB bill relative to other Dem senators that are skeptical of the BBB bill.  All of them can "support" BBB knowing that Joe Manchin will block the bill.  We will see where this goes.  On the other side of the ledger, Tthere is talk in the USA of the Biden administration now being more in favor of cutting Russia of SWIFT despite concerns from Wall Street.

[jaichind]

I doubt 62% of Americans can point the Ukraine on a map. no offense.

I think it is more about Trump being so unpredictable that Putin would not be able to calculate the odds of cost/benefit effectively and as a result just do nothing and wait until Trump is gone.

It was never going to be easy after Trump left by design. The silver lining is if he won in 2020, who picked up the pieces after him would of had it much, much worse.

I agree it is a credible counterargument that Trump's "American First" policy which I support would have weakened the USA alliance structure in Europe that Putin would at some point strike.

[jaichind]

The entire debate in the collective West over SWIFT seems farcical to me.  The argument for doing it is that there can be payment workarounds for Russia to get paid for gas exports.  The core issue is the current set of sanctions will hit Russia only in the medium term and will not deter current Russian action. 

For me, the only real question of hitting Russia in the short term would be "Will Russia be able to sell raw materials to the collective West and get paid for it" Yes or No.  For many in the collective West it is Yes and for others, it is no.   The alliance is not able to confront this simple Yes and No question so the debate moves to technicalities that really do not address this core question.

Of course, Russia has its own race against time.  The need to wind this up within weeks if not days or else problems for them which include sanctions and other factors will begin to catch up to them.

[jaichind]

Russians claim that they halted their operations later yesterday due to the prospect of talks with Ukraine.  It seems that Ukraine has since rejected these talks, as per the Russians, so now Putin has already ordered a resumption of the offensive.

[jaichind]

Armor running out of fuel on day 2 or 3 of an operation you initiated is a sign you don't really know what the hell you're doing.  

You expect Russian equipment to break and the conscripts not fighting very well, but you don't expect them to lose so much equipment so fast, run out of fuel of all things and have 2 large jets full of some of Russia's best trained troops shot down?  That ain't a good sign for Russia moving forward.


This also confirms my belief that the PRC can NOT take Taiwan as the PRC's equipment and men aren't as good as Russia and it's far easier to invade a country you share a long land border with than it is to invade an island 110 miles from your shores.  The Taiwanese might not have the military might Ukraine does, but they have far better geography on their side.

I always figured the PRC timeline for reunification in the late 2030s when they will likely have confidence that they can win a conventional war for reunification WITH USA and Japan intervention.  Of course, I figure these prospects would mean that real reunification talks are likely to start in the mid 2030s.

[jaichind]

Russians claim that they halted their operations later yesterday due to the prospect of talks with Ukraine.  It seems that Ukraine has since rejected these talks, as per the Russians, so now Putin has already ordered a resumption of the offensive.

Was there a chance to stall the Russians long enough to get resituated? Or was Putin lying as a cover that he was caught with his pants down and needed time to pull them up?

I am very skeptical of this Russian narrative.  I am sure they might have slowed down but that is not because the prosepect of talks but more for their own military reasons.

[jaichind]

The ROC media is talking about, ironically, going through a PRC payment messaging system, for trade with Russia in case SWIFT takes Russia offline.

[jaichind]

The ROC media is talking about, ironically, going through a PRC payment messaging system, for trade with Russia in case SWIFT takes Russia offline.

ROC gets that they are China’s Ukraine right?

But even Ukraine is
a) Passing Russian gas to the EU and collecting transit fees
b) Buying gas from Kazakhstan and paying Russia for transit fees

So why shoule ROC make economic sacrficices when even Ukraine is, if you will, feeding the beast.

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/Karmabash/status/1497572272298680327

Note the hair style

Just like the US military, they should be checked for vaccination status before being allowed into the anti-Russia militia.

[jaichind]

https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/swift-deutschland-will-internationales-zahlungssystem-gezielt-einschraenken-a-457cbb5a-95b7-40fd-bf2d-9d91d9f27c4c

Germany supports a "targeted and functional" restriction of the Swift international payment system for Russia. Work is being done "at high pressure" on how Russia's decoupling from Swift can be limited in such a way that "it hits the right people"

Whatever that means?

Putin cannot personally use SWIFT but Russian companies can

[jaichind]

This would be bold, too, I guess:

https://twitter.com/business/status/1497582903718514690

I think since 2014 Russia has been shifting its reserves away from USD.  I would guess it is no more than 10%.  Also, Russia controls its own gold reserves.  Still, if the Russian Central bank is not able to touch its USD reserves it will be a big hit and I bet RUB will fall a bunch if this is what the decision is.

[jaichind]

Watching Indian media I can tell the English language (liberal/left) media is turning against Putin even as the Hindi language media are still in the neutral camp.  It will not surprise me if Modi is now getting pressure to take a more pro-Ukraine stance.

[jaichind]

Watching Indian media I can tell the English language (liberal/left) media is turning against Putin even as the Hindi language media are still in the neutral camp.  It will not surprise me if Modi is now getting pressure to take a more pro-Ukraine stance.

What about arnab goswami

Republic TV is very aligned with BJP/Modi.  They are mostly the neutral line right now.  If Modi shifts his position I am sure Republic TV will fall in line.

[jaichind]

It seems that EU ministers will meet tomorrow to work out SWIFT sanctions.  It sounds like the fact that they have to work out details then these sanctions will be targeted and not comprehensive.  Still, it could very be very impactful or very nominal.  The details of these sanctions will determine how the financial markets will react.

[jaichind]

More details from Bloomberg.  It seems that the nature of the EU SWIFT sanctions "would be likely be limited, following German support for the move."

[jaichind]

Watching Indian media I can tell the English language (liberal/left) media is turning against Putin even as the Hindi language media are still in the neutral camp.  It will not surprise me if Modi is now getting pressure to take a more pro-Ukraine stance.

You speak Hindi?

Since I am following Indian elections right now I do look at Hindi news sites and read some of their news using google translate.

[jaichind]

Reading between the lines of what various EU officials are saying my best guess on SWIFT sanctions is that it will try to still allow for payments to Russia so raw material exports from Russia to the collective West will continue but block intra-Russian bank transfers.  The idea here is to trigger a run on the Russian banking system.   Here Russia has built an alternative system SPFS to which some but not all Russian banks and key counterparties are connected.  If the sanctions are what I think they might be and it can be crafted to target Russian intrabank transfers I suspect Russia will have to shut down all banks Monday and then get all their banks and enough counter parties connected to SPFS and hope that there is no run on the banks.  In the meantime, I am sure Russia will strike back in some way.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-26/eu-u-s-agree-to-disconnect-some-russian-banks-from-swift

"Western Allies Agree to Disconnect Some Russian Banks From SWIFT"

My guess was correct.  The SWIFT sanction is mostly to target Russian banks to try to trigger a bank run in Russia without halting the energy trade

[jaichind]

Lots of talk about SWIFT but the financial experts I follow say the attack on the Russian central bank's ability to exchange its foreign currency reserves is much more damaging and a nuclear step. Direct attack on Russia's ability to support the rouble long-term.

https://twitter.com/adam_tooze/status/1497697957155676171?s=20&t=XX5Jl1esb5h...

Agreed.  If the SWIFT sanction does not hit Russia's ability to export energy then they will manage with their alternative message system.  If Russian reserves in USD AND EUR are frozen then the damage will be large and RUB will fall a bunch.  Again, Russia will survive but there will be significant damage in terms of surging inflation.

[jaichind]

These stories and pictures of Ukrainian civilians being given weapons create images of the Volkssturm in 1945.  They were and are still are bad idea not just because of the lives it cost but they were mostly ineffective.  German generals in 1945 often complain that the Volkssturm units were better of being disbanded and instead working in the German army itself to work on logistics and communications versus trying to fight the USSR forces in battle,

[jaichind]

These stories and pictures of Ukrainian civilians being given weapons create images of the Volkssturm in 1945.  They were and are still are bad idea not just because of the lives it cost but they were mostly ineffective.  German generals in 1945 often complain that the Volkssturm units were better of being disbanded and instead working in the German army itself to work on logistics and communications versus trying to fight the USSR forces in battle,

The main difference between the German Volkssturm in 1945 and Ukrainian civilians today is certainly a significantly different level in morale. My own grandfather deserted before he could be drafted into the Volkssturm.

Maybe more importantly, why do you continue to be Putin's useful idiot? Are you getting paid by him or what?

That could be.  My point still is that it might make Ukrainian citizens feel better to be firing a rifle at the Russians but they will be helping more if they help with logistics, preparing defensive positions, and destroying roads to block Russian advances.  Untrained units carrying weapons never add up to much in terms of military effectiveness.

[jaichind]

The current Russian offensive has some similarities to the Summer-Fall 1943 USSR offensive with the key difference Russia holds Belorus and Crimea.  Note the offensive ends on the Dnieper River where I suspect Russia will stop and consolidate.

The bad news for Ukraine and the 1944 Germans is that the Dnieper River has a higher East bank which makes it harder to defend the West bank.  

The tricky part for Russia is that Western Ukraine is a much tougher nut to crack in terms of terrain.

[jaichind]

It seems part of the SWIFT sanctions will also target wealthy Russian (including Oligarchs) from being able to access their wealth.  This actually will be able to help uncover something I have always been interested in.  The assumption has always been that the Russian Oligarchs control a good part of the Russian political system and Putin is very close to them and could not afford to cross them.  I was never really so sure of that.  The Oligarchs getting hit and hit bad will allow us to see how much Putin really cares about this set of people.

As for the rest of the SWIFT sanctions, it is pretty clear that Russian banks that are associated with the energy trade will not be hit but the ones that are not will be.  The Russian counter to this will actually be similar to a networking design problem.  It's like having two intranets (SWIFT and the Russian SPFS) that are both in operation and then a set of IP addresses on the Russian side are blacklisted from the SWIFT intranet.  The Russians will need to figure out how to route network traffic within SPFS to IP addresses that are not blacklisted to try to restore the network traffic flow.  It will not be easy and will be interesting to see if Russia can pull this off.

[jaichind]

The main difference between the German Volkssturm in 1945 and Ukrainian civilians today is certainly a significantly different level in morale. My own grandfather deserted before he could be drafted into the Volkssturm.

An infinitely less noisome and likely much more relevant analogy from German history would be the Landwehr regiments of 1813-15. They might not have been as effective as regulars, but they were still useful, as motivation and morale were high enough to partially overcome their deficiencies in training and equipment.

But that was before the era of motorization and ariel support.  Another one I can think of would be the 2003 Iraq Fedayeen but in that case, they did get some training months in advance and mostly turned out to be ineffective.