Mexico Legislative and Governor elections June 6th 2021

[jaichind]

Massive Caller poll has AMLO approval rating heading up

[jaichind]

https://www.ft.com/content/44a1f03f-5a2e-4dcc-9e94-fcf5e49be2e2

"Deaths surge in Mexico as pandemic extracts a heavy toll"

It seems excess death in Mexico is among the highest in the world.  AMLO levels of support still mostly holding up speaks to his political skills at crafting the narrative.

[jaichind]

Is the Félix Salgado Macedonio scandal expected to have a significant effect, either in Guerrero or nationwide?

I have no idea.  In Guerrero is till be MORENA vs PRI-PRD vs PAN.  PAN is not very strong here but will take some anti-MORENA votes plus most of the old PRI and PRD votes here have migrated to MORENA.  So most likely latest rape accusations against Félix Salgado Macedonio most of which are from years ago will blow over soon and MORENA will win in a landslide.  I have to assume these accusations might hurt MORENA in the more Northern urban areas.

[jaichind]

Mexico will have mid-term elections for the Lower House on July 6th

There will be governor elections in

Baja California
Baja California Sur
Campeche
Colima
Guerrero
Michoacán
Nuevo León
Querétaro
San Luis Potosí
Sonora

Most likely it will be a MORENA sweep despite the emerging and most likely viewed a opportunist PAN-PRD-PRD alliance

what party would right wing populists support?

I think the nationalist non-establishment vote for sure went MORENA but especially AMLO in 2018.  With MORENA taking over the PRI vote, especially in the South, I am not sure where that vote will go.  Nationalism in Mexico is more associated with the Left so I suspect they will still go MORENA.

[jaichind]

https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/nacion/rumbo-san-lazaro-morena-aventaja-alianza-opositora

Latest  El Universal/Buendia & Marquez poll has party support to be

MORENA   34
PAN         16
PRI           7
PVEM        5
PT            5
PRD          3
MC           1
PES          1  (Conservative Right, ex-MORENA ally)
PFM         1  (MORENA splinter)
RSP         1  (Leftist)

Where the two alliance blocs are fighting each other (MORENA-PT-PVEM vs PAN-PRI-PRD) it is

MORENA-PT-PVEM        43
PAN-PRI-PRD               29
MC                               4

It seems even in districts where MORENA is not running in an alliance it is ahead of PAN-PRI-PRD 38-24.

[jaichind]

El Universal poll for San Luis Potosí governor race has PVEM-PT ahead of both PAN-PRI-PRD and MORENA.

PVEM-PT         43
PAN-PRI-PRD   31
MORENA         24
MC                   2



In this state it seems PVEM is running an PRD rebel and have broken from MORENA who is running separately.  PAN is fairly strong in this state but according to this poll it is behind PVEM-PT

Massive Caller has it neck-to-neck between PAN-PRI-PRD and PVEM.  The poll seems to mislabel PT as an ally of MORENA when it is an ally of PVEM.
 

[jaichind]

PVEM aligning with Morena is hilarious.

We do not know who is going to win the election, we just know that PVEM will emerge as an ally of the winning party.  Sort of like KP in Japan except KP at least act as a Kingmaker where they dramatically increase the likelihood of its ally winning.  PVEM's base is small and it is not that clear how effective it is in transferring its vote to its ally.

[jaichind]

Exactly what brought this alliance to even be a possibility in San Luis Potosí? Why would PT not favor the MORENA candidate?

I have no idea. There must be some regional factors behind this.  The PVEM candidate having a PRD background must also play a role for PT which is on the Left to be able to sell to its base being allied with PVEM against MORENA.

[jaichind]

Massive Caller poll that with projection of vote shares of all 300 districts



MORENA   154
PVEM           6
PT               6
PAN           94
PRI            32
MC              8






I can only say the projection will be off.  Many MORENA candidates will run as PVEM or PT party label to get around the 8% rule (your seat share cannot be greater than 8% more than your vote share.)  There is no way MORENA will win as many as 154 seats but PVEM and PT only win 6 seats each.

[jaichind]

Is the Félix Salgado Macedonio scandal expected to have a significant effect, either in Guerrero or nationwide?

Massive Caller poll shows a drop in his lead but he is still ahead of PRI-PRD

[jaichind]

Wow, seems like the PRI isn't doing very well this days. I always wondered, does it have any appeal with the newer generations? I can imagine it having support among older ones, the ones who always voted for "the traditional ruling party", but for young people, who grew up in democracy, and with Peña Nieto as their only priista president, how does a party as ancient and discredited manage to get their support?

See

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Mexican_protests also known as gasolinazo.  It was an attempt by PRI Prez Enrique Peña Nieto to liberalize the price of gasoline.  But that merely pushed whatever is left of the PRI youth vote away from PRI. 

Also the level of corruption among various PRI governors reached unprecedented levels during Nieto's rule also served to destroy the PRI levels of support. 

In the South a lot of the old PRI vote sent to MORENA and in the North they split between PAN and MORENA.

 

[jaichind]

Is the Félix Salgado Macedonio scandal expected to have a significant effect, either in Guerrero or nationwide?

It seems MORENA just removed him as Guerrero governor candidate

https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/nacion/morena-quita-candidatura-felix-salgado

[jaichind]

Eurasia Group came out with a research report on Mexico midterms saying that they expect MORENA to outperform.  The summery of their report says:

1) Polls show Lopez Obrador’s approval ratings have increased, despite sharp economic and health crises

2) Eurasia’s basecase remains Morena losing its qualified majority but winning more than 50% of the seats in congress, “but we are increasing the odds of the ruling coalition maintaining its qualified majorities to 30% from 20%”

3) Optimism on vaccine front is growing; Morena should benefit from economic recovery

4) “Finally, with only 93 days before the election, the opposition still has not presented a credible narrative that could help it capture some of the discontent against the administration”

[jaichind]

https://www.chicagotribune.com/espanol/sns-es-mexico-obrador-avala-candidato-acusado-de-violacion-20210305-qflmlwu6onem7ggjchz4m2txhu-story.html

"AMLO prevails, endorses candidate accused of rape"

It seems after some review MORENA is still going to go ahead with Felix Salgado Macedonio candidacy in Guerrero.  Their internal polling must show him still ahead and calculating that backing down would mean the core MORENA vote might not turnout

[jaichind]

Massive Caller poll for Guerrero 

MORENA's Felix Salgado Macedonio still ahead




In SLP PVEM takes the lead over PAN-PRI-PRD



Most other states MORENA if anything is widening his lead.  PAN is still ahead in Baja California Sur, Chihuahua and Querétaro while it is neck-to-neck between PRI and MORENA in Nuevo León but in the rest MORENA is well ahead.

[jaichind]

Massive Caller have daily tracking polls on the 5 governor races that are high profile or likely to be close

Colima


Guerrero


NL


SLP


Sonara

[jaichind]

https://www.dallasnews.com/espanol/al-dia/mexico/2021/03/26/mexico-ine-revoco-la-candidatura-de-felix-salgado-macedonio-para-gobernador-de-guerrero/

It seems INE has revoked MORENA's Felix Salgado Macedonio candidacy.  What a mess.   I am sure he will challenge this so this is clearly not over yet

[jaichind]

Reforma poll for legislature has MORENA still with a massive lead


MORENA         45
PRI                 18
PAN                17
PRD                 4
PVEM               4
MC                   3
PT                    3

By alliance MORENA-PVEM-PT 52 PAN-PRI-PRD 39

[jaichind]

El Financiero poll on legislative race

On paper, PRI-PAN-PRD is almost as high as MORENA-PVEM-PT

[jaichind]

Where do you find these polls? I can usually only find Massive Caller polls.

Due to the nature of my work I have access to various proprietary news wires that focused on world political developments.  These wires have links to various polls that are done by local media.  In theory if you search google news every day you can find these stories but these news wires does this work for you.

[jaichind]

In Guerrero, after MORENA swapped out Félix Salgado and swapped in his daughter Evelyn Salgado, MORENA still seems to be ahead

[jaichind]

Interesting that you cover Chihuahua today, given a new Massive Caller poll came out today showing Morena leading for the first time. I can see this being an upset in favor of Morena given the tight margins and how good Morena has been with voter outreach. Great writeups btw! They're really good reads.

Other recent polls also show MORENA pulling slightly ahead

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/mexicos-president-backs-probe-opposition-governor-candidates-2021-05-11/

"Mexico’s president backs probe of opposition governor candidates"

AMLO looking to strike back after MORENA had their governor candidates in Guerrero and Michoacán removed and had to be replaced.

[jaichind]

I think the accident in the 12th Metro line ended the political careers of both Ebrard and Sheinbaum respecting to the average person, Sheinbaum is trying to blame Mancera with the typical ''ThE PaSt GoVeRnMeNt CaUsEd AlL tHe FaIlUrEs'' but it isn't sticking with the General Public.

That's a pretty big blow for MORENA.  Are not Sheinbaum and Ebrard precisely the people talked about as the successors to AMLO in MORENA after 2024 ?

[jaichind]

I think the accident in the 12th Metro line ended the political careers of both Ebrard and Sheinbaum respecting to the average person, Sheinbaum is trying to blame Mancera with the typical ''ThE PaSt GoVeRnMeNt CaUsEd AlL tHe FaIlUrEs'' but it isn't sticking with the General Public.

That's a pretty big blow for MORENA.  Are not Sheinbaum and Ebrard precisely the people talked about as the successors to AMLO in MORENA after 2024 ?

Yeah Sheinbaum in particular in seen as his disciple and who AMLO would back over everyone else. I'm not sure if this will be significant enough to sink them, given that they still have 3 years to turn things around. It isn't great obviously though.

https://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/nacional/2021/05/12/cae-22-puntos-la-aprobacion-de-sheinbaum-tras-colapso-de-linea-12/

The approval rating of Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum dropped 22%  following the collapse of an elevated metro line in the capital that killed 26 people, daily El Financiero reported on Wednesday.