India 2021 assembly elections - TN, Kerala, WB, Assam, and perhaps J&K

[jaichind]

Do you think if the UPA forms a government in Assam, the INC will shy away from giving the CM post to Tarun Gogoi's son, Gaurav Gogoi?

Other contenders are the state INC chief, Ripun Bora, in addition to Debabrata Saikia, who is the leader of the opposition, and perhaps also Pradyut Bordoloi, a LS MP. Debabrata Saikia's father was also a Chief Minister of Assam.

I have no idea.  All I know is if INC does in they will give credit to Rahul Gandhi and then there will be some negotiations behind the scenes to figure out CM in INC High Command.  This time of course they will have to also take the views of AIUDF and BPF into account.  BPF will be very important since they have the option of defecting back to BJP if the BJP dumps UPPL. 

[jaichind]

Phase 2 voting in WB coming up

Just like phase 1, these seats are part of the old Left Front strongholds that are now trending BJP as the old Left Front Hindu vote migrate to BJP.  There are more Muslims in these seats than phase 1 which makes it harder for BJP to make gains

In 2019 LS these seats went AITC 17 BJP 13.  Most likely BJP will gain on top of this.  Not clear by how much.

[jaichind]

Thanthi TV (local TN media) district by district poll.   Their plan is to poll every constituency although the sample size is only 200 per constituency.  They are doing them 50 constituency at a time.

Yesterday's 50 it was DMK+ 34, AIADMK+ 12, too close to call 4.

Today's 50 is, DMK+ 42, AIADMK+ 5, too close to call 3.



Which makes the 100 constituency they polled so far DMK+ 76, AIADMK+ 17, too close to call 7

If you look at their results seat by seat it seems that the DMK+ and AIADMK+ vote share gap does not seem large (most likely around 6% or so.)  In many seats the DMK+ edge over AIADMK+ edge is small.  In many seats the vote transfer of the 2016 PMK and 2016 BJP vote is keeping the AIADMK+ bloc close across the board despite a clear swing from AIADMK+ to DMK+ and AMMK+

So far this poll is an extreme version of what I said about TN, that the swings are quite uniform and that once the vote share gap is above 7%-8% the seat gap becomes massive and moves into landslide territory.  This poll seems to indicate that the landslide vote share gap is more like 6%.

[jaichind]

Do you think if the UPA forms a government in Assam, the INC will shy away from giving the CM post to Tarun Gogoi's son, Gaurav Gogoi?

Other contenders are the state INC chief, Ripun Bora, in addition to Debabrata Saikia, who is the leader of the opposition, and perhaps also Pradyut Bordoloi, a LS MP. Debabrata Saikia's father was also a Chief Minister of Assam.

I have no idea.  All I know is if INC does in they will give credit to Rahul Gandhi and then there will be some negotiations behind the scenes to figure out CM in INC High Command.  This time of course they will have to also take the views of AIUDF and BPF into account.  BPF will be very important since they have the option of defecting back to BJP if the BJP dumps UPPL.  

It will be very interesting because Tarun Gogoi was a popular and recent CM of Assam. The INC were afraid to let Jagmohan Reddy succeed his father, and yet there is a sizeable number of Gogoi loyalists who want his son, Gaurav, to succeed him.

Himanta Biswa Sarma became estranged from Tarun Gogoi because he wanted to become CM, and suspected that Gogoi was grooming his own son to succeed him. When Gogoi continued to project himself as a CM candidate through 2015, Himanta rebelled, realising Gogoi meant to leave no earlier than 2021. This would give sufficient time for Gaurav Gogoi to emerge as a leader. Indeed, we can see now that Gaurav Gogoi is a CM candidate.

I think the AIUDF will favour Ripun Bora, who pushed for an alliance despite misgivings of other top INC leaders. https://www.telegraphindia.com/north-east/congress-leaders-seek-new-assam-chief/cid/1801788

The BPF had good relations with Tarun Gogoi. They might support Gaurav Gogoi. I am not sure the BFP will go back to the NDA as long as Himanta Biswa Sarma is pushing for the top spot. The BFP conditions will presumably include power over the BTC, and Sarbananda Sonowal as NDA CM. Himanta will presumably find these too humiliating to accept since he pushed for the BFP's ouster.

If the UPA does win it was done without projecting Gaurav Gogoi as the CM candidate.  If BPF backs Gaurav Gogoi I do not think INC high command would think that Gaurav Gogoi is a threat.  There are other INC factions that might object but most likely they will fall in line if the INC high command makes a call.  The main danger to the UPA government would be if the BJP tries to break BPF if the UPA majority is narrow as it is likely to be if it wins.

On the flip side if the NDA majority is narrow and Himanta Biswa Sarma is not picked by BJP to be the CM I can see Himanta Biswa Sarma playing some games to perhaps even defect back to INC to become CM.

[jaichind]

When do you think Modi could retire? I think he wants to stick around for another 5 years after 2024, before handing it over to Amit Shah.

Yeah.  It seems likely he will try to run for re-election in 2024 and then pass things over to Amit Shah after 2024.  The good news for the BJP is that Modi is single and has no children which simplifies succession.    After 2024 LS elections it will be Amit Shah vs Yogi Adityanath for the battle over who leads the BJP.

How acceptable is Yogi to non-rural BJP supporters?

Adityanath seems to be very popular to the core BJP votes and are being independently asked by BJP candidates all over the country to campaign for them.  He seems only second to Modi inside the BJP as a campaign crowd draw.  I would have thought that Adityanath's influence  would be limited to the Cow belt but BJP candidates in places like Telangana and WB are also asking him to campaign.    I still think his appeal would not be as wide as Modi. 

But if he does well in the 2022 UP assembly election and his popularity with the BJP base grows even more the 功高震主 or large accomplishments by a subordinate is a threat to the master effect will come into play and create conflict between him and Modi-Shah.

[jaichind]

https://zeenews.india.com/india/time-has-come-to-unite-against-bjp-mamata-banerjee-writes-letter-to-sonia-gandhi-other-opposition-leaders-2351857.html

"Time has come to unite against BJP: Mamata Banerjee writes letter to Sonia Gandhi, other opposition leaders"

AITC CM Mamata Banerjee writes to INC Prez Sonia Gandhi and a bunch of other anti-BJP parties asking for unity against BJP.  Most likely it is a ploy to get anti-BJP tactical voting in the later phases in WB elections or she senses that BJP now has a real chance to win in WB and she is looking for support from anti-BJP parties for help her form a government in case of hung assembly or both.

[jaichind]

Tamulpur’s BPF candidate withdrew his candidature in the presence of Hiamnta Biswa Sarma. He will support the UPPL candidate. Basumatary was missing since the early morning.

https://twitter.com/atanubhuyan/status/1377280450910035971

Wow, based on fundamentals this seat should be lean BPF.  I guess this shows that BPF, even with vote transfer from AIUDF and INC, will not sweep Bodoland.  It also shows how the BJP will try to break BPF in case of a narrow UPA majority.

[jaichind]

Adityanath seems to be very popular to the core BJP votes and are being independently asked by BJP candidates all over the country to campaign for them.  He seems only second to Modi inside the BJP as a campaign crowd draw.  I would have thought that Adityanath's influence  would be limited to the Cow belt but BJP candidates in places like Telangana and WB are also asking him to campaign.    I still think his appeal would not be as wide as Modi. 

But if he does well in the 2022 UP assembly election and his popularity with the BJP base grows even more the 功高震主 or large accomplishments by a subordinate is a threat to the master effect will come into play and create conflict between him and Modi-Shah.

Surprising. I can scarcely believe he would be acceptable to BJP voters in a metro like Delhi.

I think part of his appeal is that he is a maverick.  Yogi Adityanath and his mentor Mahant Avaidyanath were more from the HMS (Hindu Mahasabha) and only joined up with BJP in the late 1980s during the Ayodhya movement.  Even in the BJP there are plenty of cases where Yogi Adityanath undermined the election campaigns of rival BJP factions.  I think this independent, tell it like it is,  attitude has a lot of appeal to the core BJP voter.   Him being a sādhu also helps too.  Part of Modi's appeal is that he is not married and pretty much live like a sādhu which makes it easy for people to look past the policy mistakes he has made on the premise that: Well, his motivations are pure even if the results are not always good.

[jaichind]

In TN, Thanthi TV constituency poll dump of 50 seats of the day

DMK+ 19, AIADMK+ 16, too close to call  15

Most of the seats AIADMK+ are ahead are by very narrow margins and really should be considered too close to call

Cumulatively with 150 seats polled it is

DMK+ 95, AIADMK+ 33, too close to call 22

Overall the trend is similar.  Vote share gap between the two blocs are running at around 5% but the seat gap is quite large given the 5% and mostly headed to something like 170 to 60 seat lead by DMK+ bloc which would make it a clone of 2006 election where the DMK+ bloc won by a similar vote share and seat margin.

[jaichind]

Assam phase 2 over. 

Out of the 39 seats that voted in 2016 it was

BJP      22
AGP       2
BPF       4
INC       6
AIUDF   5

The pro-BJP ground reports claim that NDA won 25-27 of the 39 seats.  If true then its game over for UPA since it is in this phase that UPA is suppose to make significant gains if it is to win.  As it is I find these pro-BJP claims hard to believe.  I think UPA will flip at least 4 seats from 2016 and keep most of the 2016 BPF seats for a net gain of at least 7 seats.

Turnout lower than 2016 but most likely after the final numbers comes in it will be only slightly below 2016 turnout

[jaichind]

Phase 2 of WB voting is over

All eyes are in Nandigram where its AITC CM Mamata Banerjee vs former Mamata Banerjee protégé and now local kingpin AITC turned BJP MLA Suvendu Adhikari vs CPM's Minakshi Mukherjee (rising CPM youth activist superstar).  Pro-BJP and pro-AITC ground reports gives very conflicting information on how that race is going.

pro-BJP sources claim that BJP swept at least 25 out of 30 seats.

In 2016 these 30 seats went: AITC 21 Left Front-INC 8 BJP 1
In 2019 these 30 seats went: AITC 18 BJP 12



Turnout lower than 2016 but once final turnout number comes in I suspect it will be only slightly lower than 2016.

[jaichind]

In TN, Thanthi TV constituency poll day 4 dump of 50 seats of the day

DMK+ 11, AIADMK+ 6, too close to call  33

Cumulatively with 20 seats polled it is

DMK+ 106, AIADMK+ 39, too close to call 55

If you go with this poll DMK+ is en route to around 150-160 seat win although usually the too close to call should really mostly go to the winning front in which case it would be more like 165-175 seat win for DMK+.

[jaichind]

Tamulpur’s BPF candidate withdrew his candidature in the presence of Hiamnta Biswa Sarma. He will support the UPPL candidate. Basumatary was missing since the early morning.

https://twitter.com/atanubhuyan/status/1377280450910035971

After BPF candidate Basumatary quits BPF to join BJP, he called on voters to not vote for him and vote for UPPL.  Top BPF leader Hagrama Mohilary in a rally called on the voters of Tamulpur to vote BPF symbol (which is Basumatary of course).  

So now we have:
1) Candidate: do not vote for me
2) Party: Candidate is a traior, but vote for the traitor

The idea here is if Basumatary wins on the BPF symbol he is still bound by the BPF whip and will be disqualified if he does not vote with BPF on key votes.  And if he is disqualified there will be a by-election where BPF can then put in a loyal candidate.

Whole thing is bizarre.  It seems to me Basumatary  is much better off trying to win and if he wins then defect to BJP which would disqualify him but then BJP can then nominate him in the by-election. 

[jaichind]

Final WB phase 2 turnout.  Slight drop from 2016.

[jaichind]

Final turnout in Assam phase 2.  Small turnout fall when compared to 2016.

The places where turnout rose are the Lower Assam Muslim areas, places where turnout fell are in tribal areas and areas closer to Upper Assam.  All things equal these turnout patterns are not favorable to BJP.

[jaichind]

Would Yogi's perceived "frankness" have anything to do with his rhetoric against India's Muslim minority? I really struggle to see the appeal otherwise. Indeed, a lot of BJP voters in metros like to say they support BJP because it is "pro-development" and good for the economy. I heard the same for Modi running up to the 2014 elections. I guess there might be a "shy BJP" voter effect, where they claim their reasons for supporting BJP is economic, rather than an identification with Hindu Indian nationalism.

I would say he does not hold back on his Hindu nationalism message.  His style has direct appeal to core BJP voters that does not consume English language media.  Yogi does not appeal to English language media based BJP voters who would prefer a Vajpayee.  The core policies will not be that different but the likes of Vajpayee can do them in a way that looks gentlemanlike.  With Yogi you do not get a gentlemen but you get a image of someone that gets things done and tells like like it is.  That is his brand and image.

[jaichind]

Thanthi TV done with their constituency by constituency poll in TN

The finally tally is

                    Seats  
DMK+             124      
AIADMK+          52      
Too close to call 58

On the premise that in a defeat of the ruling bloc the tossups will lean opposition this poll seems to imply something like 165 seat victory for DMK+ which would be a replication of 2006 when DMK+ defeated AIADMK+ by around 4% of the vote.


Best CM poll has

DMK Stalin                   46
AIADMK EPS                 40
MNM Kamal Haasan        5
NTK Seeman                  4   (Tamil Nationalist)
AMMK Dhinakaran          4  

Seems to imply a 6% vote gap between DMK+ and AIADMK+

[jaichind]

TN Tirupporur's VCK candidate SS Balaji on the campaign trail

Note the campaign sign has VCK party symbol and a picture of SS Balaji on the right and pictures of DMK leader Stalin and VCK leader Thirumavalavan on the left.  Basically he is looking for voters to vote for him or his party symbol and for pro-DMK voters to vote for him to install ally DMK leader Stalin to be CM.  Given the partisan makeup of the seat and 2016 results he is likely to win.  Even though AIADMK won this seat narrowly in 2016, a 2019 by-election saw DMK win here.  DMK them handed this seat over to VCK as a part of VCK joining the DMK+ alliance.

[jaichind]

Would Yogi's perceived "frankness" have anything to do with his rhetoric against India's Muslim minority? I really struggle to see the appeal otherwise. Indeed, a lot of BJP voters in metros like to say they support BJP because it is "pro-development" and good for the economy. I heard the same for Modi running up to the 2014 elections. I guess there might be a "shy BJP" voter effect, where they claim their reasons for supporting BJP is economic, rather than an identification with Hindu Indian nationalism.

I would say he does not hold back on his Hindu nationalism message.  His style has direct appeal to core BJP voters that does not consume English language media.  Yogi does not appeal to English language media based BJP voters who would prefer a Vajpayee.  The core policies will not be that different but the likes of Vajpayee can do them in a way that looks gentlemanlike.  With Yogi you do not get a gentlemen but you get a image of someone that gets things done and tells like like it is.  That is his brand and image.

Is Yogo competent too? I was surprised to see he has been a MP since 1998; I had not heard of him before 2017. Which potential successor poses a greater threat to the UPA, Yogi or Amit Shah?

Yogi does not do that much administration.  He pretty much handed running UP over to the bureaucrats.  The typical BJP MP and MLA in UP does not have much say in running of the government.  They might be resentful but Yogi is popular with the BJP base so they cannot do much about it.

This story from a few month ago is quite instructive

https://thewire.in/politics/modis-a-k-sharma-bjp-uttar-pradesh-adityanaths-cabinet   

"Modi's Trusted Aide A.K. Sharma Joins BJP in UP, May Become a Minister in Adityanath's Cabinet"

It is about one AK Sharma who was a former IAS officer from Gujarat and have very long ties with Modi when Modi was CM in Gujarat.   Now he has been shifted to UP to join the UP BJP and help Yogi deal with the administrative side of running UP.

Yogi has one job: PR.

While a pure technocratic government might get Yogi in trouble with local BJP factions all looking for their share of the loot, what is good about it is the caste related to the local BJP MLA do not run amuck with abuse of power and work to limit anti-incumbency.  With Yogi's positive image and a SP BSP and INC most likely split in 2022 UP assembly elections the BJP looks set to return to power although most likely with a reduced majority.

[jaichind]

Tamulpur’s BPF candidate withdrew his candidature in the presence of Hiamnta Biswa Sarma. He will support the UPPL candidate. Basumatary was missing since the early morning.

https://twitter.com/atanubhuyan/status/1377280450910035971

After BPF candidate Basumatary quits BPF to join BJP, he called on voters to not vote for him and vote for UPPL.  Top BPF leader Hagrama Mohilary in a rally called on the voters of Tamulpur to vote BPF symbol (which is Basumatary of course).  

So now we have:
1) Candidate: do not vote for me
2) Party: Candidate is a traior, but vote for the traitor

The idea here is if Basumatary wins on the BPF symbol he is still bound by the BPF whip and will be disqualified if he does not vote with BPF on key votes.  And if he is disqualified there will be a by-election where BPF can then put in a loyal candidate.

Whole thing is bizarre.  It seems to me Basumatary  is much better off trying to win and if he wins then defect to BJP which would disqualify him but then BJP can then nominate him in the by-election. 

There might be chances of BFP winning a second election anyway. As the BFP candidate, I guess he can do his best to sabotage their chances from within.

I think BJP would have preferred he withdraw his nomination, but it was too late for that.

This entire episode is does not make sense.  The BJP must figure BPF had a good chance of winning ergo they felt the need to bribe Basumatary to join before the elections.  But if Basumatary thinks he could win he should hold out for a bigger bribe after the elections.  The only explanation is that the BJP thinks Basumatary is likely to win but Basumatary has the opposite assessment.   The only alternative is Basumatary is not likely to win by the BJP want to bribe him to defect before the elections to shift marginal Bodo voters in the rest of Bodoland to vote NDA seeing that BPF is falling apart since their own candidate defected before the election. 

It would be hilarious if Basumatary wins by a landslide after campaigning against himself.  The look on his face on counting day would be funny to behold.  He would in theory have to office as an official BPF MLA.

[jaichind]

TN local media Malai Murasu poll

                                  seats
DMK+                          151 
AIADMK+                       54
AMMK+                           1
MNM+                             1
NTK                                0
Too close to call              27

Similar to Thanthi TV but more pro-DMK

[jaichind]

Truecopy Think poll for Kerala has LDF well ahead

             Seats     Votes
LDF         90          44.2%
UDF        49           38.2%
NDA          1          15.4%

Which is pretty much a replication of 2016.



So most Kerala polls are either a replication of 2016 LDF landslide or UDF making gains but falling short.  I still think UDF is more likely to win than not but in face of all these polls I guess now it is possible that LDF breaks the 40+ year pattern of no re-election in Kearala.  The last time (and the only time) this took place was in 1977 when proto-UDF returned to power defeating proto-LDF.  Other than 1977 no Kerala government have been re-elected since the first assembly election in Kerala in 1957

[jaichind]

Thanthi TV poll on Puducherry

NDA                 21
UPA                   3
Too close to call  6

This where I think the race is is.

[jaichind]

WB BJP poster on UP BJP CM Yogi Adityanath campaign event in WB

[jaichind]

Edit: Seems like a fake poll

Democracy Network poll on TN has a shock AIADMK victory

AIADMK+    134
DMK+         100

What was decisive was Kongo Naadu went to AIADMK+ by a landslide.  Kongo Naadu is AIADMK CM EPS's base.  If true then AIADMK would have won the election on a Kongo Naadu vote for its favorite son