India 2021 assembly elections - TN, Kerala, WB, Assam, and perhaps J&K

[jaichind]

https://www.newindianexpress.com/states/kerala/2021/mar/16/forward-bloc-wont-contest-against-pinarayi-says-face-off-will-weaken-national-anti-fascist-front-2277294.html

"Forward Bloc won't contest against Pinarayi Vijayan, says face-off will weaken national anti-fascist front"

AIFB returns seat to INC in Kerala as it was not satisfied with the seat they were allocated.  AIFB will support UDF but will not contest.  So seat sharing for UDF in Kerala is now

INC                                 92
IMUL                               27  (Muslim) (includes one pro-IMUL independent with INC background)
KEC(Joseph)                    10  (split off from KEC(Mani))
RSP                                  5
NCK                                 2 (NCP splinter)
CMP(J)                             1 (CMP splinter which was itself a CPM splinter)
KEC(Jacob)                      1
RMPI                               1 (CPM splinter)

https://www.newindianexpress.com/states/kerala/2021/mar/14/congress-takes-back-malampuzha-seat-2276345.html

"Congress takes back Malampuzha seat"

In the end after local INC protests and BNJD saying they were not interested in running in Malampuzha, INC took back Malampuzha from BNJD in terms of seat allocation.

As a result the new Kerala UDF seat distribution are

INC                                 92
IMUL                               27  (Muslim) (includes one pro-IMUL independent with INC background)
KEC(Joseph)                    10  (split off from KEC(Mani))
RSP                                  5
NCK                                 2 (NCP splinter)
CMP(J)                             1 (CMP splinter which was itself a CPM splinter)
KEC(Jacob)                      1
AIFB                                1
RMPI                               1 (CPM splinter)

[jaichind]

https://www.newindianexpress.com/states/kerala/2021/mar/14/protests-by-cpm-cadres-force-kc-m-to-return-kuttiyadi-seat-2276534.html

"Protests by CPM cadres force KC (M) to return Kuttiyadi seat"

KEC(M) returns a seat to CPM after protests by CPM cadres in said seat.  So seat sharing of LDF in Kerala is now

CPM                              86 (includes 9 pro-CPM independents)
CPI                               25
KEC(Mani)                     12
JD(S)                              4
LJD                                 3 (JD(U) anti-BJP splinter)
NCP                                3
INL                                 3 (Muslim)
C(S)                               1 (INC splinter)
RSP(L)                            1 (RSP splinter)
KEC(Balakrishna Pillai)     1
JKC                                1 (KEC(Mani) splinter)

LDF seat distribution

CPM                              85 (includes 9 pro-CPM independents)
CPI                               25
KEC(Mani)                     13
JD(S)                              4
LJD                                 3 (JD(U) anti-BJP splinter)
NCP                                3
INL                                 3 (Muslim)
C(S)                               1 (INC splinter)
RSP(L)                            1 (RSP splinter)
KEC(Balakrishna Pillai)     1
JKC                                1 (KEC(Mani) splinter)
 
As usual CPM ran a bunch of pro-CPM independents in seats allocated to it.  They are usually in heavy Christian and Muslim seats  where the CPM brand is not so hot.

[jaichind]

The entire premise of LDF having a good chance to win in Kerala despite the tradition of UDF and LDF flipping every election is the defection of KEC(Mani) from UDF to LDF.  But one thing one has to take into account is that KEC(Joseph) split from KEC(Mani) and looking at which party 2016 KEC(Mani) candidates choose to join, a greater part of the old KEC(Mani) base went over to KEC(Joseph).  The seat allocation also has CPM giving a couple of its winnable seats over to KEC(Mani) to bribe them as part of the deal for KEC(Mani) to come over to LDF.

I did a back of envelope calculation of how the 23 seats where various KEC factions have influence to see how they might shift by making an assumption of a swing from LDF to UDF but with KEC(Mani) taking over some of their vote based with them to LDF with bonus for 2016 KEC(Mani) incumbents being able to hold on to the 2016 KEC(Mani) vote.

In these 23 seats the 2016 results were
                   
                                 Contest         Win
UDF                           23             10
KEC(M)                          15              6
INC                                 7              3
KEC(Jacob)                      1              1

                                Contest         Win
LDF                           23            12
CPM                              11              9
JKC                                4               0
CPI                                 2              0
NCP                                2              1
JD(S)                              1              1
KEC(Balakrishna Pillai)     1              1
KEC(Skaria Thomas)        1              0
pro-CPM Ind                    1              0

KJ(S) also wins a seat


I expect 2021 results in these 23 seats to be

                                 Contest         Win
UDF                           23             12
KEC(Joseph)                   10              6
INC                               10              4
KEC(Jacob)                      1              1
NCK                                1              0
IMUL                               1              1

                                Contest         Win
LDF                           23            11
KEC(Mani)                     12              5
CPM                                7              5
JKC                                1               0
KEC(Balakrishna Pillai)     1               1
JD(S)                              1              0
NCP                                1              0
 
One person party PC George KJ(S) most likely lose his seat that he won in 2016 to INC. Several seats will be very close and there is more upside for KEC(Joseph). 

So UDF will end up gaining 2 seats out of this block of seats which means UDF will need to gain a least another 22 seats out of the other 117 seats which will not be easy but still doable.   Either way it seems the KEC(Mani) split into KEC(Mani) and KEC(Joseph) actually allowed both factions to bargain for more winnable seats from both blocs in hopes that the KEC faction each alliance backed can keep and win more of the old 2016 KEC(Mani) vote allowing them to win 5 and 6 seats respectively whereas in 2016 the united party only won 6 seats.

My back of the envelope analysis seems to indicate that the split of KEC(Mani) damages UDF chances but is not fatal.

[jaichind]

https://www.business-standard.com/article/elections/pc-thomas-led-kerala-congress-quits-nda-to-merge-with-joseph-faction-121031700422_1.html

"PC Thomas-led Kerala Congress quits NDA, to merge with Joseph faction"

Latest news on Kerala KEC faction saga.  KEC(Thomas), not happy with their seat allocation, decides to quite NDA and merge into UDF KEC(Joseph).  The fact that KEC(Thomas) merged with KEC(Joseph) versus KEC(Mani) speaks to which of the two factions must have greater electoral strength.

[jaichind]

Shining India Opinion Poll for WB

AITC                      168
BJP                         89
Left Front-INC-ISF    35
Others                      2

This poll has a fairly strong result for Left Front-INC-ISF compared to other polls

[jaichind]

Shining India Opinion Poll poll for Assam has it neck-to-neck

            Seats     Vote share
NDA       62            41.6%
UPA       59             40.8%
Others     5             11.4%

I assume most of Others at 5 seats will be AJP-RD which makes this poll pretty positive about their prospects when compared to other polls. A poll like this which has it neck-to-neck is very bad news for BJP and most likely herald defeat.

[jaichind]

Asianer-CFore Opinion polls for Puducherry:

          Seat   Vote Share
NDA      25        52%
UPA        5        36%
Others    0        12%

This more matches what I think the state of the race is most likely to be at.

[jaichind]

In Assam the final seat sharing arrangement is

INC         94
AIUDF     14
BPF         12
CPM          2
CPI           1
CPI(ML)    1
AGM         1
RJD          1

Due to protest from INC base in many seats the quota for AIUDF was reduced to 14.  But AIUDF was "allowed" to run in 7 other seats given to INC in a friendly fight.  So AIUDF will run in 21 seats with 14 as part of the tactical alliance with UPA.

The 7 seats and 2016 results are

Abhayapuri South
AIUDF         32.5
INC             32.4
AGP             32.1


Naoboicha
AIUDF          34.5
BJP              33.8
INC              20.9
AGP               5.0  ("friendly fight" with BJP)


Goalpara West
INC             44.8
AIUDF         26.9
BJP             23.8
AGP              0.8  ("friendly fight" with BJP)


Karimganj South
AIUDF        45.2
INC            41.8
BJP              9.2

Sarukhetri
INC             45.3
AGP            29.6
AIUDF         13.9


Jaleswar
AIUDF         43.9
INC rebel     38.6
BJP               9.0
INC              5.1


Dalgaon
INC            42.8
AIUDF        41.5
AGP           13.8


It seems Naoboicha there is a good chance a lack of a INC-AIUDF alliance will cost it a seat but the other 6 should be faily safe that either INC or AIUDF will win.

All in all this tactical alliance between INC and AIUDF is mostly positive at the mathematical level.  Main risk is that it will provoke Hindu consolidation, mostly in Upper Assam, toward the BJP-AGP combine while AIUDF is weak there and its vote base transfer to INC will not make up for the loss of Hindu votes there from INC to BJP-AGP.  Additional risk is the likelihood of AIUDF rebels given how low the AIUDF quota became.

[jaichind]

I was just reading about these seats you mentioned. I don't think AIUDF is running a candidate in Naoboicha. There is no mention of the AIUDF in the list of candidates. The sitting AIUDF MLA who had to give up the seat is certainly not running.

On the other hand, the three-time BJP candidate who narrowly finished second in 2016 is running as an independent. I think this seat is also favourable for UPA.

https://www.news18.com/news/politics/keyed-up-newly-formed-audf-makes-congress-aiudf-alliance-lose-sleep-ahead-of-assam-polls-3544784.html

"Keyed Up? Newly Formed AUDF Makes Congress-AIUDF Alliance Lose Sleep Ahead of Assam Polls"

Says that AIUDF is running a candidate in Naoboicha.  It could be INC later on convinced AIUDF to withdraw the candidacy.  The system does allow for withdrawals so it could be that took place and I missed it. 

I did not know about the BJP rebel here.  If that is the case then that certainly hurt BJP.  I  guess my point is do not underestimate BJP trouble shooter Himanta Biswa Sarma ability to come in and get BJP rebels to stand down.  Himanta Biswa Sarma is playing a much bigger role in this election that expected.    I suspect the BJP have concluded that if they run Sarbananda Sonowal as their CM candidate most likely they will lose.  So they leave it open and see if  Himanta Biswa Sarma can come in and win it for NDA.  If he does them they might reward him with the CM post.  Being explicitly about this would be bad as that would provoke a negative reaction from Sarbananda Sonowal and his partisans.

[jaichind]

ABP C-voter came out with polls for UP and Uttarakhand both of which goes to the polls next year.

UP
            Seats   Vote Share
BJP        289         41%
SP           59         24%
BSP         38         21%
INC           4           6%
Others     13           8%

which is very similar to 2017 results with a small growth in the vote share for SP and BSP.  SP gains less in terms of seats due to not having a tactical alliance with INC unlike 2017.  BSP vote share gain is a surprise as the CW is that the BSP is on the decline for a while now.  I think BJP should win as long as SP and BSP are split but I am sure they will win by a smaller margin of victory in terms of seats




Uttarakhand
 
           Seats  Vote Share
BJP        27        38.3%
INC       35         40.8%
AAP         5          9.2%
BSP         3          4.2%
Others     0          7.5%

For the BJP to be behind at this stage is VERY BAD news for the BJP.  The AAP surge is also interesting.   Uttarakhand is very Upper Caste heavy and AAP's vote share showing they are now eating into rural Upper Caste centrist-liberal votes and not just urban Upper Caste centrist-liberal votes.  These votes are traditional BJP-INC swing voters but now AAP is in there to compete for those votes.

[jaichind]

Possibly. I looked at the list of candidates in affidavit. eci.gov.in/ and there is no mention of the AIUDF.

The date for withdrawal for the first phase was 12 March. The BJP rebel is still running.

nenow.in/ north-east-news/assam/assam-assembly-elections-bjp-votes-likely-to-split-in-naoboicha-constituency.html

Also, I read on twitter BJP has expelled 15 members who were denied party tickets and running, including the rebel in Naoboicha.  twitter.com/ atanubhuyan/status/1372541383127359489

That said, I agree with your overall point. BJP seems to be in pole position in Upper Assam, and HBS is a very capable politician. This will be a very interesting election.

How interesting.  If so then the INC played a good game here.  If there was one seat at risk for INC and AIUDF to run separately  it would be Naoboicha.  If INC got AIUDF to stand down there then INC-AIUDF formed alliances (mostly in Lower Assam) should be seen as efficient in the sense that they will not split votes where it matters.

Clearly  Himanta Biswa Sarma is out for blood.  He defected from INC to BJP in 2015 mostly because he sense that Tarun Gogoi was going to promote his own son over him to take over INC in Assam.  So his go is to become CM.  BJP is trying to give him other roles to make up for not giving it to him but this time he seems determined to maneuver himself to get the role.  If NDA wins in Assam it might be popcorn time to see how BJP handles the Assam CM position problem.  But BJP is right, win first by pushing Modi as the face, worry about CM later.

As for BJP rebels, INC is just as bad if not worse.  Back in 2016 both BJP and AGP had tons of rebels objecting to their alliance and in the end did not stop their landslide victory.  This time around it will be closer so it might make a difference.

[jaichind]

Interesting observation about the AAP. Lately, their leaders have been copying the BJP's playbook, and positioning themselves as Hindu-nationalists lite. Do you think this will work?

Outside of Delhi and Punjab, AAP mostly appeal to high educated (and implicitly Upper Caste) voters that get their news from the English media although some vote INC.  This group is clearly very urban.  People in this category that mainly read non-English media tend to vote BJP.  This group is more rural.
 AAP is trying to break into high educated but non-English media voters from the BJP.  To do this some support of soft Hindu nationalism is necessary.  Frankly in many Northern states, especially BJP strongholds like MP and Gujarat,  INC plays the same game.  Now AAP does the same.

[jaichind]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/elections/west-bengal-assembly-election/west-bengal-election-setback-for-bjp-as-2-leaders-refuse-offer-to-contest-101616075570784.html

"West Bengal election: Setback for BJP as 2 leaders refuse offer to contest"

Two BJP candidates refused to contest.  One of them is the husband of the current AITC MLA that did not get re-nominated and the other is the wife of a late INC leader of the district.  Both claim they were not consulted and did not agree to run for BJP.

[jaichind]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/income-for-all-free-ration-delivery-in-tmc-manifesto-101616004730047.html

"Income for all, free ration delivery in TMC manifesto"

In WB the AITC manifesto promises universal basic income of around $100 a year for each family and $200 a year for Dalits, tribal and backward castes (groups she need to woo back from the BJP).  BJP made a similar promise in their manifesto.  She also promised to expand the definition of backward caste to include more in the school admissions and goverment jobs quota systems.  Unlike 2016 when AITC made a big push for Muslim votes, this time it seems AITC assumes is will get Muslim votes and is making a pitch for Dalits tribal and backward castes.

[jaichind]

CSDS chart on AITC gender gap over the years.   The basic idea is that if women turnout is high it helps AITC.

[jaichind]

Shining India Survey on TN.  No seat projections only vote share

DMK+          40.3%
AIADMK+     34..6%
MNM             6.2%
AMMK+         5.1%
Others          6.4%
Do not know  7.4%

Note sure if this poll takes into account AMMK-DMDK alliance which I would imagine would add 2% to AMMK+'s total if it did not.  The DMK+ AIADMK+ vote share gap is smaller in this poll than other polls.

I would say if the vote share gap is around 6% between DMK+ and AIADMK+ the seat breakdown should be around DMK+ ~160 AIADMK ~60

[jaichind]

TV9 Polstart poll on WB.  Vote shares only and not seat projection

AITC                      43.1%
BJP                        38.8%
Left-Front-INC-ISF  11.7%
Others                     6.4%



Other poll questions are

Best CM
Mamata Banerjee     51.8%  (AITC CM)
Dilip Ghosh              24.2%  (WB BJP leader)
Suvendu Adhikari      5.2%   (AITC rebel that defected to BJP in 2019)


Which party will be able to do development in Bengal if voted in 2021?
AITC                         51.1%
BJP                           38.6%
Left Front-INC-ISF        8.6%

Which points to likely tactical voting in favor for AITC

[jaichind]

In the long run, AAP seems a greater threat to the INC, than the BJP. I wonder if AAP leaders have learned from 2019 and are mainly planning to replace the INC in north India.

I agree that AAP is a threat to INC in the sense that BJP is and will continue to be the dominate party in India and there is only room for the leader of the main alternative.  Right now that is INC but clearly AAP want to try to take over that space.  Unless AAP can show that it can win in rural areas outside of Delhi and Punjab AAP will not be an contender.

The main immediate threat to INC is actually AITC.  If AITC wins by a good margin in WB AND INC does not win in Kerala and Assam, there is a good chance that all anti-BJP parties will consolidate around AITC as the leader of the anti-BJP alliance in 2024 LS elections.  This is sort of the reason why despite the fact that in WB AITC is the main alternative to BJP, INC does not ally with AITC but choose to ally with Left Front.  I think if AITC wins WB but INC wins Kerala and Assam, Rahul Gandhi should still be safe as the leader of INC and leader of the anti-BJP bloc in 2024.  If BJP wins both Assam and WB there is no point in being the leader of the anti-BJP bloc in 2024 since it will be another solid BJP win in 2024.

[jaichind]

TN alliance seat distribution

Not show are that
1) Other than PMK and BJP all other AIADMK allies will run on AIADMK symbol
2) Other than IJP and JD(S) all other MNM allies will run on MNM symbol
3) AMMK allies MSS VTPK MAK will run on AMMK symbol

[jaichind]

Shining India Survey on TN.  Now with seats
                 
                   Seats     Vote share
DMK+            135          40.3%
AIADMK+        84           34.6%
MNM                 7             6.2%
AMMK+             5             5.1%
Others              3              6.4%
Do not know                     7.4%

Just like other polls the seat share gap here is too small given the vote share gap of 6% or so.

[jaichind]

Ground Zero Research Assam poll has UPA with tiny edge

UPA      64
NDA     60
Others    2

Region breakdown has INC-AIUDF-BPF sweeping Bodo and Muslim heavy Lower Assam while BJP-AGP has the edge in Upper Assam.  In Bengali Hindu/Muslim 50/50 Barak Valley its seems INC-AIUDF can consolidate their votes to gain the edge while BJP has the edge in tribal areas.

Others at 2 must be AJP-RD since they come from Upper Assam.




Battleground seats are

[jaichind]

Ground Zero Research Assam poll has UPA with tiny edge

UPA      64
NDA     60
Others    2

Region breakdown has INC-AIUDF-BPF sweeping Bodo and Muslim heavy Lower Assam while BJP-AGP has the edge in Upper Assam.  In Bengali Hindu/Muslim 50/50 Barak Valley its seems INC-AIUDF can consolidate their votes to gain the edge while BJP has the edge in tribal areas.

Others at 2 must be AJP-RD since they come from Upper Assam.

Battleground seats are

I am quite surprised to see Kaliabor in a list of battleground seats. It has been a safe seat for the AGP in recent times. I wonder if they think the CAA is going to hurt the AGP here? I don't see how this is a close contest otherwise.

I agree with you.  Some of the seats on their list I figured were safe UPA or safe NDA.   Perhaps what they meant was not a list of battlegrounds but more a list of representative districts.

We mostly have a model for how this election will go: the 2019 LS elections in Assam where AIUDF stood down in a bunch of seats to back INC which provoked a Hindu consolidation for BJP on the back of the Modi wave.   The results of this election should be the 2019 LS elections plus further fusion of the Muslim vote, backing out the Modi factor and taking into account of AJP-RD.  The  AJP-RD factor will be hard to estimate.  In theory they should take anti-CAA Assamese Hindu votes from INC  but news like

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/assam-elections-must-unitedly-defeat-bjp-in-assam-says-jailed-activist-akhil-gogoi-2395316

""Must Unitedly Defeat" BJP In Assam, Says Jailed Activist Akhil Gogoi"

Where RD leader Akhil Gogoi calls for a vote for the strongest anti-BJP party could also create tactical voting from AJP-RD for UPA.

[jaichind]

Is there any chance of the UPA forming a government in 2024 then? It seems so unlikely at this stage.

I do not see it.  I just do not see how Rahul Gandhi can win a Presidential like election in 2024 or for INC to support a AITC led anti-BJP campaign.  I think the best UPA can do is to get BJP (these days there is no real NDA anymore, BJP really has JD(U) and AIADMK left as significant allies and I can see Nitish Kumar parting ways with BJP by 2024) to be below majority mark an force BJP to rope in non-UPA non-NDA parties like YSRCP in AP and BJD in Odisha to form a majority.

The good news for UPA is that in Indian election history there has been 2 pro-incumbent landslide waves: 1971 and 1984.  Both had the winning party (INC in both cases) losing its majority the next election.

At this stage its is not clear how BJP could lose their majority.  But in 1974 and 1986 it was also not clear how INC could lose their majority in the next election.  Things I can thing of are perhaps Rahul Gandhi is able to somehow about build a positive brand that is a winner (versus being anti-Modi or trying to copy Modi) and/or a BJP civil war breaking out between Amit Shah and UP BJP CM Yogi Adityanath to become the successor to Modi.

[jaichind]

https://news.abplive.com/news/india/west-bengal-polls-once-domestic-help-kalita-majhi-gets-bjp-ticket-ausgram-sc-seat-1449252

"Meet Kalita Majhi, Domestic Help Turned BJP Candidate For West Bengal Assembly Polls"

In Ausgram where the BJP got 7.6% in 2016 the BJP decided to go for a long shot non-politicans candidate nominating a domestic servant who is married to a plumber.  By nominating someone from such a humble background does project BJP as a pro-poor party.



Unfortunately for the BJP this move blew up in its face when Kalita Majhi was interviewed by the media and was asked which party she is running for she said "AITC".   I guess she does not know much about politics and just stated the party she heard of the most, which would be the ruling AITC.

[jaichind]

Ground Zero Research Assam poll detailed district results

BJP             41
Lean BJP     11
AGP             5
Lean AGP      1
UPPL            1
   
INC           28
Lean INC   14
AIUDF       14
BPF            7
Lean BPF    3
CPI(M)       1

The district by district result seems to indicate consolidation of INC AIUDF BPF vote bases in Lower Assam and Barak Valley while AJP-RD cuts into the BJP-AGP in Upper Assam preventing a total INC wipeout there to produce a narrow UPA victory (67-59)

As I have claimed earlier.  This sort of alliance setup means that AIUDF strike rate will be very high.  AIUDF according to this poll will win all 14 seat allocated to it under the UPA alliance.