Ethiopia sends troops into the Tigray Reigon

[jaichind]

ENDF is on an offensive to capture Shire (also known as Inda Selassie) in Central Tigray.  The city is a key transportation hub and now has a lot of Tigray refugees gathered there (I think over 600K).  Some sources claim that ENDF is close to capturing it.  It was captured in the lENDF offensive in late 2020 but was recaptured by TPLF in the June 2021 counteroffensive.

[jaichind]

It seems the ENDF captured the town of Waja in Southern Tigray.  If so this means the TPLF offensive Southward beyond Southern Tigary earlier this year has been mostly turned back.  Still on this part of the front, the front seems to be fairly static with very small shifts.

[jaichind]

Ethiopian government rejects calls for an immediate cessation of hostilities, making it clear that it intends to take control of the entire Tigray region

[jaichind]

It seems ENDF is getting close to Korem in Southern Tigray with TPLF defenses collapsing  If Korem falls to ENDF, they have already advanced 1/5 of the way from the Tigray border to Mekele.

If ENDF can make another deep advance into Tigray that is a testament to their version of Winfield Scott's anaconda strategy they employed most of 2022.

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/tigray-forces-concede-loss-large-town-ethiopian-army-2022-10-18/

"Tigray forces concede loss of large town to Ethiopian army"

ENDF-EPLF captured Shire in Central Tigray.  This mostly ends any chances of a TPLF pushing the West to establish supply routes to pro-Tigrat Sudan which were remote anyawy.

Now TPLF faces pressure on all 4 sides.  ENDF-EPLF is pushing east from Central Tigray.  ENDF is pushing North from Southern Tigray ENDF-Afar militias are pushing from the West to cut Southern Tigray from Mekele.  And EPLF has a large force in the North that is not totally engaged yet but could be in a situation of an all-out ENDF push toward Mekele.

[jaichind]

It has been said that TPLF is the Prussia of the Horn of Africa. Well, even the Prussians could not have survived unscathed if the Miracle of the House of Brandenburg hadn't happened. In the same way, the TPLF being surrounded is bad for them. The trendlines are quite troubling...

The current situation is similar to Prussia in 1761 with forces on all sides moving in.  Only the death of Russia's Elizabeth in early 1762 and installing of pro-Prussia Peter III saved Frederick the Great.

[jaichind]

The pattern so far is that ENDF dees well in the Winter months while TPLF does well in the Summer months.  The reason is clear: Air power.  ENDF dominates the skies which means that ENDF will have the upper hand in the Winter due to the lack of foliage which will give TPLF camouflage cover.

[jaichind]

The upcoming ENDF strategy should be what we Chinese call 關門打狗 (Close the door and then attack the dog) which is really isolating the enemy into a region that is all within your zone of control and then slowly move in for the kill.  This is will be part II of Winfield Scott's Anaconda Plan.

It seems ENDF has mostly adopted my proposed strategy from 10 months ago.  They had a bunch of small operations but mostly focused on starving TPLF of resources. Now they seem to be moving in slowly for the kill.  Not clear if TPLF is sufficiently weak enough not to spring some surprises on the ENDF-EPLF offensives.

[jaichind]

It seems after capturing Shire the joint EPLF-ENDF force is heading eastward while another ENDF-Amhara militia force from Amhara is heading Northward to link up with this force.  This might be too aggressive.  It seems ENDF and EPLF should prioritize wiping out TPLF forces in the rear West of Shire before pushing eastward.   They are risking a repeat of their mistake of late 2020 and early 2021 of focusing on taking over towns along key roads leaving the vast countryside to TPLF who built up the defense to ambush ENDF forces who were too stretched to try to defend too many isolated positions from TPLF harassment.

[jaichind]

Looks like the EPLF-ENDF force that captured the Shire a few days ago has advanced around 40 miles to the East and is outside Axum.  Again this puts them further and further away from their source of supply so for this to make sure they have to be sure that their line of communication is solid or else this is a risky move.

[jaichind]

https://apnews.com/article/abiy-ahmed-addis-ababa-ethiopia-africa-government-and-politics-891fdcb0b80c303ca9fe68d622e94b1a

"Ethiopians protest against outsiders amid Tigray conflict"

Anti-USA protests throughout Ethiopia's urban centers as peace talks begin between the Ethiopia government and TPLF in South Africa.  The protestors accuse the USA of interfering with a domestic Ethiopia affair.

[jaichind]

It seems EPLF-ENDF forces capture Aksum.  The road between Shire and Aksum is very mountainous and perfect for TPLF ambushes.  Yet the EPLF-ENDF were able to move quickly from Shire to Aksum to capture it without much resistance.  Either TPLF is playing a very long game (like late 2020) or TPLF strength has been broken in this area.

[jaichind]

The next flashpoint would be Adwa which is east of Aksum.  It is a road junction whose capture would make it easier for EPLF to send in supplies which means TPLF is likely to try to contest it.

[jaichind]

The next flashpoint would be Adwa which is east of Aksum.  It is a road junction whose capture would make it easier for EPLF to send in supplies which means TPLF is likely to try to contest it.

Wow. I spoke too soon.  It seems that EPLD-ENDF just captured Adwa.

[jaichind]

I’m surprised by how easily the Oromo front was beaten back. Once all this is over I suspect the reason why the OLF insurgency was defeated is the main reason why Ethiopia and Eritrea will win the war.

Drone technology is the other reason, Iran has made a killing in sending their cheap drones to conflict areas around the world with great effects.

What did in TPLF is their poor diplomacy.  Eritrea and Tigray are very close from a cultural and linguistic point of view so there is no reason why Tigray should not be able to get Eritrea to be allied with it.  TPLF being behind the 1998-2000 Eritrean–Ethiopian War pretty much made EPLF a permeate enemy of TPLF.  All is not lost for TPLF but this war will be very different if Eritrea was backing TPLF.

[jaichind]

The next flashpoint would be Adwa which is east of Aksum.  It is a road junction whose capture would make it easier for EPLF to send in supplies which means TPLF is likely to try to contest it.

Wow. I spoke too soon.  It seems that EPLD-ENDF just captured Adwa.

When I hear Adwa I think of the battle in 1896. Certainly it's a place with a lot of history.

Aksum which EPLF-ENDF also just captured is fairly historic as it is the capital of the old Kingdom of Aksum and is the location of the Ark of the Covenant as claimed by the Ethiopian Orthodox Church.

[jaichind]

Sources claim that EPLF-ENDF has captured Adigrat.    It seems this was done in connection with EPLF forces coming down from the North and linking up with the EPLF-ENDF force moving East from Adwa. If true then TPLF would have lost all of Northern Tigray in a matter of days.

Of course, TPLF forces must still operate in the rural parts of Nothern Tigray and the true base of TPLF is Central Tigray so TPLF is far from finished.  I suspect TPLF might be shifting to more of a guerilla-style war like in early 2021 soon.

[jaichind]

TPLF is down but not out.   While there have been some TPLF fighters have been captured there are no signs of entire TPLF units surrendering.  I can see TPLF pulling out of Southern Tigray and giving up Mekele in light of these multi-directional assaults from all sides and pulling into the mountainous rural part of Central Tigray just like in early 2021.

The main difference this time is that in 2021 the Ethiopian government needed to put up a show to the domestic population including urban Tigray that the war is over which really hampered their efforts to finish off TPLF opening themselves up for ambushes and then massive defeat in June 2021.  This time it is different.  The Ethiopian population is now been prepared from a PR point of view for a long war for total victory so the ENDF does not need to put up a show of total victory and can slowly and methodically destroy TPLF with the help of EPLF and Amhara/Afar militas.

Will be interesting to see how these lightening offensives have won the peace talks that will start Monday in South Africa.
 

[jaichind]

There are rumors that TPLF might be getting ready to pull out of Mekele

This war really reminds me of the Mughal–Maratha war of 1680-1707 where Marathas controlled the rural areas and then fought a cat-and-mouse fight with the larger Mughal forces over key towns and fortress with rapid gains and losses from both sides of the key towns.

[jaichind]

There are reports of a breakthrough on the Eastern Front.  There ENDF-EPLF-Afar militia offensive seems to have broken the TPLF defense to capture Wirko and Agula cutting Mekele from Northern Tigray.   There was a similar offensive by the ENDF-Afar militia a month ago that failed.  But in the meantime EPLF forces joined them and once Shire fell they started their offensive again leading to this breakthrough.  This might explain reports that TPLF is starting to move out of Mekele.  All these moves seem to be coordinated to gain the maximum advantage for Ethiopia in peace talks that will start Monday in South Africa.

[jaichind]

There are reports of fighting at Mekele Airport.  If so this must be the ENDF-EPLF-Afar militia moving in from the East.

Also, it seems the force that captured Adigrat was an EPLF force coming down from Eritrea and that the EPLF-ENDF has not made a junction between Adwa and  Adigrat.  This means that TPLF has not completely melted away in North Tigray and fighting continues there.

Instead, it seems the EPLF-ENDF force in Adwa is heading South toward the old TPLF base of Hagere Selam in Central Tigray.  Hagere Selam was the TPLF base back in the 1980s when it was fighting against Derg and during the ENDF-EPLF offensive in late 2020 this town was never captured.  

In the West, it seems the ENDF-Amhara militias have moved North and made a juncture with the EPLF-ENDF force in Shire cutting off a bloc of TPLF force West of Shire.

[jaichind]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-63490546

"Ethiopia's Tigray conflict: Truce agreed"

[jaichind]

The deal is between TPLF and the Ethiopian federal government and not the Tigray regional government.  This is a victory for the Ethiopian federal government where it was able to reject the legality of the Tigray regional government.  Both sides agreed to stop fighting.  TPLF agreed that there is only one defense force which is the EPLF which again is a victory for the Ethiopian federal position because this means TPLF will be disbanded and integrated into EPLF.  Tigray regional government will be dissolved and an interim Tigray government will be formed by TPLF and other pro-EPLF elements as part of the re-integration of Tigray back into Ethiopia.

What TPLF got was that supplies will flow once again into areas currently controlled by TPLF.

Western Tigray's legal position (being a part of Tigray or not) will be decided later.

Eritrea is not a party to this deal so it is not clear if Eritrea will honor the terms of the deal but Ethiopia claims that Eritrea's position was represented by Ethiopia's federal government.

If TPLF carries out the terms of this idea it is a victory for the strategy I recommended for EPLF almost a year ago since what killed TPLF was the lack of supplies which was exactly the strategy I proposed.

The upcoming ENDF strategy should be what we Chinese call 關門打狗 (Close the door and then attack the dog) which is really isolating the enemy into a region that is all within your zone of control and then slowly moving in for the kill.  This is will be part II of Winfield Scott's Anaconda Plan.

[jaichind]

TPLF is taking a lot of flak from the Tigray diaspora on their concessions in the peace deal.  TPLF is pretty much giving up its military win in order to survive as a political force in Tigray and be able to participate in federal Ethiopian politics.  This seems to be unacceptable to the Tigray diaspora.  There are already signs that TPLF might be buckling.

There is not an official document of the deal and I think it is because TPLF feels the need to pre-sell the deal to their backers before it comes out which will make TPLF look bad.  There are delays in the official document of the deal coming out which means TPLF is running into trouble.  This might lead to the deal falling apart and resumption of fighting.

[jaichind]

Interesting facts about the peace deal so far

1) TPLF negotiators are back in Mekelle.  It seems the deal is a hard sell for the activists.  The TPLF line so far is that the Addis Ababa regime is bent on the genocide of Tigraians.  If so how can TPLF disarmament make any sense the activists ask of the TPLF leadership?

2) Ethiopia explicitly does not thank the USA for the peace deal and only thanks AU.  Ethiopia clearly sees the USA and the collective West being on the side of TPLF and now will drift further away from the USA.

3) USA in reciprocation does not mention the word disarmament but only cessation of hostilities signaling to the TPLF that if fighting were to start again the USA will not "blame" TPLF since they never were supposed to "disarm" which is what the peace deal explicitly says.

All this seems to indicate that TPLF could not convince its activist base or if ENDF gets too aggressive with "self-service" of TPLF disarmament there is a good chance the fighting will start again.