International COVID-19 Megathread

[jaichind]

Indian Police

Corona Lathicharge

https://youtu.be/NdhVTZkXb6c

Imagine that in your neighbourhood. It has an almost medieval quality to it.

There been some cases where overly aggressive police started to beat people that are going out to buy groceries which is allowed under the 21 day lockdown.  Overall this is not a big deal or that prevalent.    What is much more prevalent is the large number of day laborers that are now out of a job and are walking home hundreds of miles away because all transports have shut down.

[jaichind]

You can easily see how Russia's current reported death number is a joke:

Even in Austria we'll have a 10% overmortality this year (91.000 vs. 83.000 last year).

Russia has 2 million deaths each year, so yeah, +10% would be around 200.000 additional deaths of which the large majority will be because of COVID.

Russia is not necessary the only one.  This guy (https://dkobak.github.io/) produced a chart of excessive deaths vs official COVID-19 deaths of some countries



Which puts Russia's death rate as almost twice the USA death rate.  Note that a lot of developing countries also have a much higher death rate than official numbers.  For those that we can infer the de facto death rate they are aloo well above USA levels For countries that has some sort of lockdown I suspect these numbers are inflated since the lockdown also means people that need medical attention are not going to hospitals for necessary medial treatment and are dying early as a result.

[jaichind]

https://www.indiatoday.in/cities/delhi/story/over-56-of-delhi-has-covid-19-antibodies-health-minister-satyendar-jain-on-5th-serosurvey-1765192-2021-02-02

New Delhi survey has 56% antibody positive.  It seems India is headed towards herd immunity.

[jaichind]

https://www.indiatoday.in/cities/delhi/story/over-56-of-delhi-has-covid-19-antibodies-health-minister-satyendar-jain-on-5th-serosurvey-1765192-2021-02-02
 It seems India is headed towards herd immunity

We've heard that plenty of times before about plenty of places, tbf.

Yes but the reported deaths in India has been dropping steadily since Sept 2020.  Note that given the medical infrastructure in India I would read reported death as reported death in Urban areas.  The general view is that the spread of the virus in India was heavy in early 2020 but then moved on to rural areas by mid 2020.  I am sure there will be a lot of excess death in rural India once the numbers come out.  The the steady fall of urban reported death without any lockdown and any social distancing measures or even any real mask mandates means that herd immunity in urban India is becoming a reality.  Just shows how bad of a decision the Spring 2020 lockdown was.  It did not stop the outbreak, destroyed the economy where they are now just recovering from when the whole time herd immunity was the only real strategy.  The collapse of the economy forced India to the correct path of herd immunity and now it is paying off.  I suspect in rural India we are in the middle of moving toward herd immunity.   

[jaichind]

https://www.indiatoday.in/cities/delhi/story/over-56-of-delhi-has-covid-19-antibodies-health-minister-satyendar-jain-on-5th-serosurvey-1765192-2021-02-02

New Delhi survey has 56% antibody positive.  It seems India is headed towards herd immunity.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/india-coronavirus-cases/2021/02/04/d7f92f72-6562-11eb-bab8-707f8769d785_story.html

pretty much making the same point: that urban India most likely reached herd immunity.

India’s big cities probably have “reached the threshold of population immunity,” said Giridhar Babu, an epidemiologist at the Public Health Foundation of India. The virus will continue to spread, he added, but “the quantum of infected cases will not be the same.”

BTW, Pakistan and Bangladesh pretty much in the same situation without the disastrous Indian lockdowns of the Spring of 2020.  As the virus burns through rural areas and the South and they reach herd immunity India is on the way to beating the virus with our without the vaccine or any more lockdowns.