UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.

[jaichind]

Letwin  passes 322 to 306

[jaichind]

What the hell is the point of the Letwin amendment anyway?

Honestly, I do not know how the EU has any more damn patience. British politicians are playing games, and it's only because the EU didn't make it clear no further extension would be provided.

The idea is that anti-No deal bloc is fearful if they pass the Johnson deal and then Johnson does NOT have to ask for an extension then next week when there is a vote for laws needed to cement the deal the No Deal bloc will vote no and then throw UK into No Deal Brexit 10/31

[jaichind]

In the end DUP made no difference.  Even if they voted the other way  Letwin would have passed anyway.

[jaichind]

Boris says "I will not seek a delay" ? But that is against the law.  No idea what is going on now

[jaichind]

In the end DUP made no difference.  Even if they voted the other way  Letwin would have passed anyway.

No, it would have lost 312 to 316 then.

You are right. Did my math wrong

[jaichind]

Looks like Johnson sent the letter asking for extension but did not sign it. The letter was accompanied with another letter saying Johnson does not want an extension.   This will go to the courts. 

[jaichind]

So the government today want another meaningful vote for the Johnson deal.  So it will be up to Speaker Bercow to allow this to come to a vote.  A Goldman Sachs report says that there is a 60% chance that such a deal will be passed within the next 2 days.  GBP rallies on that report.

[jaichind]

Voting in progress in Johnson schedule pass his plan.  I suspect it will not pass

[jaichind]

Ah .. this vote is for the general principle of the bill and nos the schedule.  This one is more likely to pass but not the critical one.

[jaichind]

Johnson wins first and non-critical vote 329 vs 299 ... Johnson finally wins a vote

[jaichind]

Now they will vote on the timeline which is harder for Johnson to win

[jaichind]

If seems that DUP voted against the first motion.  If so then this result is a very good result for Johnson and bodes well on the second and critical vote on the schedule.

[jaichind]

GBP dropping on signs that DUP voted against Johnson on the second and critical vote.

[jaichind]

Johnson loses second and critical vote 308 to 322

[jaichind]

Johnson claims that if he is defeated on the timetable vote he will pull the agreement and ask for an election.

[jaichind]

Johnson's speech does not speak of an election.  I guess he will try to go for a technical extension and try to get the deal pass and done shortly after end of Oct.

[jaichind]

Betfair now has meaningful vote passing sometime in 2019 down to 40% or so... it was something like 47% earlier today.

[jaichind]

Johnson's behavior seems to be driven by his fear that his large poll lead will disappear if he misses the 10/31 deadline.  I guess what he is trying to do is to over-advertisement every step where he is being blocked from getting a deal done and executed by 10/31 so when 11/1 comes around he will still have his large poll lead.  I think polling later this week will sort of show if his worries have merit. 

[jaichind]

Lots of people have long thought the PM being able to simply call an election at the time of their own choosing handed them an unfair inbuilt advantage, and so supported fixed terms.

The principle seems to work well in other countries after all, the problems are with our actual act that was passed (and also tbf that nobody foresaw the present state of affairs actually occurring)

The act is really broken... His Govt. does not even have a majority and I don't see how forcing someone to continue governing with a minority is normal in any way...

British politics has turned into the Government proposing something and then having it rejected over and over again.

In normal countries being the Govt. means you have the means to pass what you are working on, not just spinning around in a political circus which is the House of Commons.

The LAB reason for not having an election ASAP is that they want to ensure that there is a not a No Deal Brexit.  The real reason is they will get creamed in a snap poll.  Of course you can argue that even after the Johnson deal is passed and UK leaves the EU, there is still a chance that future talks with the EU on Free Trade Pact could lead to a No Deal Brexit a year or two down the line so in theory LAB can insist on no election until 2021 or even 2022 as long as they are well behind in the polls.

[jaichind]

Govt to table a motion for general election on Monday

SNP already said they wont back it

What is the SNP reason?  I thought they wanted an election ?

[jaichind]

Boris Johnson to Put Forward Bill 'Almost Identical' to Lib Dems And SNP (Dec 9th election) If Tonight's Election Vote (Dec 12th) Fails

[jaichind]

Looks like LAB will abstain on the Dec 12th election proposal due to massive LAB MP rebellion against having an election before Brexit is resolved .  But Johnson can outflank them by just coming in with the SNP/LDEM proposal which as long as SNPl/LDEM backs it means Johnson will have his election on Dec 9th.

[jaichind]

My understanding is that the SNP wants an election not just because it will gain seats but because former SNP leader Alex Salmond goes on trial early in the new year to face charges, including for attempted rape and sexual assault.

[jaichind]

So what is the sting in "almost identical", I wonder?

And it is open to amendment which means LAB/LDEM/SNP can add stuff like
1) Everyone gets a postal ballot
2) 16 and 17 year olds can vote
etc etc

[jaichind]

LibDems refusing to compromise on the date, apparently.

My understanding is that the difference between Dec 9 and Dec 12 is that Dec 9 means Johnson will have no time to get a deal through before the election.   I think Johnson has mostly accepted that so that is why he is happy to go with Dec 9 if Dec 12 does not go through.