2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019

[jaichind]

Higher rural turnout is not positive for BJP.  There is an acute economic slowdown which is mostly manifesting itself in fall in agriculture prices plus a fall in rural demand.  So if there is going to be an anti-incumbent vote it will take place in rural areas.  None of this would take away the NDA landslides but might make it smaller than expected.

[jaichind]

Turnout as of 4pm  Maharashtra 43.84%  Haryana 50.83%.  Maharashtra turnout seems low 

[jaichind]

Maharashtra exit polls

Times Now:
BJP+: 230
Cong+: 48
Others: 10

India Today:
BJP+: 181
Cong+: 80
Others: 27

CNN News 18:
BJP+: 243
Cong+: 41
Others: 4

Republic:
BJP+: 223
Cong+: 54
Others: 11

ABP News
BJP+: 204
Cong+: 69
Others: 15

VDPA:
BJP+: 214
Cong+: 59
Others: 15

[jaichind]

Haryana exit polls

TIMES NOW
BJP+: 71
Cong+:11
Others:8

CNN NEWS 18
BJP+: 75
Cong+: 10
Others: 2

NEWS X
BJP+: 78
Cong+: 10
Others: 2

REPUBLIC
BJP+: 58
Cong+17
INLD: 0
JJP: 7
Others: 8

VDPA:
BJP  74
INC 7
JJP  6
INLD 0
Others 3

[jaichind]

VDPA exit polls have vote shares

Haryana  
INLD-SAD have alliance


Without Modi on the ballot the 2019 LS BJP Jat vote flows to JJP but BJP strong with non-Jat Hindu vote including Dalits

 

Maharashtra


VBA cut into the INC Dalit vote, BJP kept its 2019 LS Maratha vote despite Modi not being on the ballot.   Maharashtra Buddhists are all ex-Dalits that now vote RPI which is the basis of VBA so not a surprise BVA swept the Buddhists vote

[jaichind]

News 18 Maharashtra exit poll is massive for BJP-SHS with BJP winning a majority on its own.  But Others with 4 seems fishy as I am sure more than 4 VBA, AIMIM and rebels of all stripes have won



Vote share wise it has NDA beating UPA 52% to 30%

[jaichind]

Times Now also have massive BJP-SHS landslide in Maharashtra

[jaichind]

News 18 Haryana exit poll also massive for BJP


Vote share wise it has BJP beating INC 50% to 23% with JJP at 15%

[jaichind]

Maharashtra poll of polls so far

[jaichind]

Haryana poll of polls so far

[jaichind]

Well for Haryana at least INC made it into double digits in terms of seats and seems to be the strongest  opposition party which I guess is some sort of consolation

[jaichind]

Haryana TV9-Cicero exit poll


For Maharashtra it has NDA 197 UPA 75
 

[jaichind]

NDTV poll of polls.



Overall Maharashtra better for BJP-SHS than what I would expect and  Haryana worse for BJP then I would expect. It seems it has to do with the 2019 LS Modi wave Maratha vote staying with NDA in Maharashtra while the 2019 LS Modi wave Jat vote going over to JJP in Haryana.

[jaichind]

Republic TV exit poll
BJP+: 223
Cong+: 54
Others: 11

Vote share is massive

NDA    57
 BJP      33
 SHS     24
UPA    26
 INC     11
 NCP     15
Others 16

Which I do not buy.  If NDA-UPA vote share split is 57 to 26 then NDA seat count should be something like 260 out of 288

[jaichind]

Times Now poll of polls

[jaichind]

REPUBLIC TV exit poll

BJP+: 58
Cong+17
INLD: 0
JJP: 7
Others: 8

Vote share is
BJP     56%
INC     18%
INLD     7%
JJP      10%
Others  9%

Looks fishy.  BJP at 56% should mean BJP be at least 75 out 90 seats and not 58

[jaichind]

Once I have a chance to look over all the exit polls I will use my old exit poll to result projection algorithm.

Again my algorithm (adjusted somewhat) of converting exit polls to seat projection

Again the algorithm is
1) First un-skew Todays Chanakya's exit polls to adjust for its pro-BJP house affect
2) Look at pollsters which did pre-election surveys and exit polls to see if all/most of them point to a particular party is doing better in the exit polls relative to pre-poll survey.  Then
  a) If Yes, then the most optimistic of the exit polls for said party and use that as the projection
  b) If No, then just use the average of exit polls as the projection
3) Is the ruling party/front being defeated using the projection from 2)
 a) If Yes, add some extra seats to the winning opposition party/front
 b) If No, leave result from 2) alone
4) If the winning party is BJP then repeat starting at step 2) WITHOUT un-skewing Todays Chanakya's exit polls
 

[jaichind]

India Today Axis My India Maharashtra exit poll.   Has NDA vs UPA vote share at a closer 45% to 35% with VBA at 6%.  Also has Others which are mostly rebels of all sorts at 27 seats





India Today Axis My India exit poll for Haryana has BJP actually losing ground from 2014 with BJP vs INC vote share at a neck to neck 33% to 32% and JJP at 14%

[jaichind]

ABP C Voter exit poll for Haryana




Has INC actually holding the 2019 LS vote share while JJP eats into the BJP 2019 LS Jat vote.  The result is still a BJP landslide but getting BJP down to 42% is significant

[jaichind]

ABP C Voter exit poll for Maharashtra




NDA-UPA vote share lead is 45%-36%.  Here INC-NCP holds on to their 2019 LS vote but BJP-SHS loses a bunch of votes to rebels of all types.

[jaichind]

From 2019 LS exit poll Republic TV show

The panel of Republic TV to discuss the C-Voter and Jan Ki Baat exit polls looks like the Last Supper

Once again Republic TV has a massive panel which is large enough to run its own parallel Parliment

[jaichind]

Now on to projections based on exit polls based on my algorithm for Maharashtra

First un-skew Todays Chanakya's exit polls to adjust for its pro-BJP house affect
-> This step is easy since Todays Chanakya did not come out with an exit poll

All exit polls in descending order

                                NDA        UPA         Others
News 18                    243         41               4
Times Now                230          48             10
Jan Ki Baat                223          54             11
VPDA                         214         59             15
ABP CVoter                204          69             15
TV9 Cicerio                197         75              16
NewsX                       196         83               9
India Today-Axis        181          81             26
--------------------------------------------------------------
Average                    212          64             12

Now picking polls which same pollster had pre-election polls

Pre-election polls
ABP CVoter                194          86               8
Jan Ki Baat                200          77             11
NewsX                       210         49              29

Exit polls
ABP CVoter                204          69             15
Jan Ki Baat                223          54             11
NewsX                      196           83              9

2 out of 3 pollsters saw a move toward NDA and one pollster saw a move toward UPA.  So I read this as a small move toward NDA.  So I would take the average of the 3rd and 4th exit polls which gives us

Projection                 219          56             13

Since this is not a defeat of an incumbent party so there is no need for adjustment in favor of the winning party.

So my algorithm produces for Maharashtra

NDA   219
UPA     56
Others 13  

[jaichind]

Now on to projections based on exit polls based on my algorithm for Haryana

First un-skew Todays Chanakya's exit polls to adjust for its pro-BJP house affect
-> This step is easy since Todays Chanakya did not come out with an exit poll

All exit polls in descending order

                          BJP         INC         Others
NewsX                 77           11              2
News 18              75           10              5
VDPA                   74            7              9
Covter                 72            8             10
Times Now           71           11              8
TV9 Cicero           69            11           10
Jan Ki Baat           57           17            16
TV9 Bharat           47           23            20
India Today-Axis   38           36            16
----------------------------------------------------------
Average               64            15           11

Now picking polls which same pollster had pre-election polls

Pre-election polls
NewsX                 76             6              8
Jan Ki Baat           68             8            14


Exit polls
NewsX                 77           11              2
Jan Ki Baat           57           17            16

One of the polls was flat and the other saw a move away from BJP so I would read this is a slight movement away from BJP so I would go with 6th and 7th out of 9 exit poll to give us

Projection            63           14            13

Since this is not a defeat of an incumbent party so there is no need for adjustment in favor of the winning party.

So my algorithm produces for Haryana

BJP      63
INC      14
Others  13 

A key caveat here is the Jan Ki Baat exit poll looks fishy where it gives BJP 56% of the vote to INC's 18% but only 57 out of 90 seats.  One could argue that that exit poll could be read as a movement toward BJP in which case BJP should win around 75 out of 90 seats and not 63.

[jaichind]

India Today My Axis who went out on a limb back in 2019 LS elections to call a massive NDA landslide was proved correct.  Now they are making the opposite call.  Their Maharashtra  exit poll has NDA winning by a smaller margin than other exit polls and with NDA below 200 seats.  Their Haryana exit poll has a shock BJP-INC near draw even though most exit polls has a massive BJP landslide.  We will see Thursday if they win their bet again. 

[jaichind]

The India Today  My Axis exit poll for Haryana that had BJP and INC at neck to neck indicates that the Jat and Dalit vote that voted for Modi in 2019 LS have drifted back toward the opposition.   It has the Dalit vote going back to INC and the Jat vote voting tactically between INC and JJP to defeat BJP. These same voters voted BJP to support the Modi nationalist agenda as well as the NOTA factor in terms of PM candidate.  The Muslim vote of course will mostly go iNC which along with the Dalit and Jat vote would propel INC into a tie with the BJP cornering the non-Jat non-Dalit non-Muslim mostly Upper Caste and OBC vote.   Most other exit polls has the BJP 2019 LS Dalit and Jat vote mostly staying with BJP with along with the BJP core Upper Caste and OBC vote would produce and BJP landslide. 

The Haryana exit polls have high variation for the BJP seat going from almost 80 out of 90 to 32 for India Today My Axis.  This is the largest variation I have seen so the count tonight would be very fun.

In Maharashtra the BJP-SHS victory is clear.  The main outstanding issue are how much BJP and SHS rebels hurt NDA, what the balance of power between BJP and SHS would be, and would NCP win enough seats to avoid disintegration.