2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019

[jaichind]

https://www.indiatoday.in/diu/story/bjp-sena-comfortably-ahead-if-lok-sabha-election-results-mirror-assembly-polls-in-maharashtra-1602323-2019-09-23

India Today analysis shows that if you take the 2019 LS elections at the assembly segments BJP won 122 and SHS 105 seats.  INC and NCP won 22 and 23 assembly segments.  Looking at the map it seems UPA ally YSP won 3 segments and UPA ally SWP won 4 segments.  There was clearly a Modi wav that carried NDA.  UPA have to hope that recedes to give it a chance to avoid a landslide defeat.  INC and NCP local kingpin defections to BJP and SHS make this job harder.

The map clearly shows that SHS is stronger in coastal Mahabharata while BJP is stronger in the interior areas. 

[jaichind]

In Maharashtra the rumors are the BJP-SHS deal will look something like BJP 150 SHS 123 other allies 15 although certain factions within BJP and SHS fell that these numbers are a sellout and there are still pressures within both parties to contest alone.

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/in-maharashtra-seat-pact-bjp-to-play-big-brother-to-shiv-sena-sources-2107790

Sources say that the BJP-SHS deal for Maharashtra will be BJP 144 seats SHS 126 and other allies 18.  144 would be tough for BJP to work with given the number of defectors it took in.    A bunch of current BJP MLAs will must likely be dropped to make it all work.  If true then even if SHS did not get a 50/50 split it prevented the BJP from pushing the number of SHS seat allocation to 110 or below as it seems was the original BJP position. 


https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/karnataka-bypolls-deferred-ec-puppet-of-central-government-says-jds-first-victory-claims-bjp/articleshow/71316213.cms

In Karnataka the 15 assembly by-polls have been deferred by the high court pending appeals by the INC and JD(S) rebels that resigned to contest for BJP but barred from doing so from the INC Speaker right before the new BJP government came to power in the Summer.

[jaichind]

Newsx poll

Maharashtra (4 way battle which is obsolete given BJP-SHS deal that was just struck)

          Seats    vote share
BJP      155         31.77%
SHS      55          12.60%
INC       24         14.69%
NCP      25          15.72%
Others  29       

The scale of BJP and SHS seat lead over INC and NCP more reflects the uneven nature of the BJP and SHS vote shares where SHS are concentrated in coastal Maharashtra while BJP are relatively concentrated in interior Maharashtra.  Again I disagree with Others being that high as in a 4 way race a lot of various rebels will align with one of the 4 parties. 

Haryana

         Seats     Vote share
BJP      76           43.17%
INC       6           23.79%
INLD     1             2.94%
Others   7                     

 

This mostly matches ABP poll.  I think that the 2 way BJP-SHS vs INC-NCP might not work out as well for the BJP-SHS as polling might imply but BJP-SHS alliance should be headed toward around 180-200 out of 288 seats.  In Hayrana the election is all but over with the only issue being can INC get into double digits in terms of seats

[jaichind]

In Maharashtra, BJP and SHS have struck a deal but will not disclose the details of the agreement.  The issue here is that many ticket aspirants with one or most likely both sides will be disappointed by the deal and could run as a rebel.  So disclosing the details as late as possible gives these would be rebels less time to run.  In the meantime more INC and NCP leaders are defecting to BJP.  But that just builds up the list of ticket of aspirants that will have to be accommodated. 

[jaichind]

https://www.indiatoday.in/india-today-insight/story/maharashtra-assembly-elections-2019-uddhav-thackeray-devendra-fandnavis-1605390-2019-10-02

In Maharashtra in the end the BJP-SHS seat share is BJP 164 (of which 18 will go to allies like RPI(A) RSPS JSS) and SHS 124.  The SHS climb-down seems to be related to inability to get SHS splinter NMS to return to SHS to give SHS a chance to take on BJP on its own.  A SHS alliance with INC-NCP was ruled out and it was clear that if SHS went on its own that it will end up with less seats than BJP in which case SHS as a party could break.

[jaichind]

https://www.news18.com/news/politics/haryana-congress-rift-reaches-sonia-gandhis-doorstep-ex-chief-leads-stir-against-corrupt-ticket-distribution-2331173.html

In Haryana, it seems even when face with a likely BJP juggernaut, the factionalism of INC have not subsided between those which are for and againist former INC CM and Jat leader Bhupinder Singh Hooda.

[jaichind]

In Maharashtra it seems RPI(A) and RSPS will be part of BJP-SHS alliance.  SS which ran on the BJP symbol in 2014 will also be part of the alliance but it is not clear if they will run on their symbol or still use the BJP symbol.  BJP tactical ally in 2014 JSS will run on their own and not be part of the BJP-SHS alliance.  BJP had hoped that RPI(A) RSPS and SS will all run on the BJP symbol but it seems RPI(A) have rejected this.

Even as the BJP-SHS seat sharing plans are being disclosed slowly the role of CM and DCM after the elections is left as not clarified.  That seems to be a feature and not a bug.  SHS leader  Uddhav Thackeray's son Aaditya Thackeray is running which is a first for the Thackeray family which historically  have projected themselves as above electoral politics.  The SHS's position must be for a rotation of CM between Aaditya Thackeray  and BJP CM Devendra Fadnavis which clearly have been rejected by the CM.  I suspect even SHS's backup plan of Aaditya Thackeray  as DCM have been rejected by BJP.  But plans for CM role after the election is going to be kept hidden for the SHS to be able to explain to its cadres on its climb down on being the junior partner to BJP with the assertion that "Aaditya Thackeray will be made CM" to motivate the SHS cardre and base.    Of course the SHS base will get a big surprise after the elections when Aaditya Thackeray will most likely end up with nothing and BJP running the entire show.

[jaichind]

In Maharashtra on the opposition side it seems that INC-NCP roped in SP BVA and SWP.  There will most likely be tactical alliances with CPI-CPM while talks are ongoing to get PWPI into the alliance.  It seems any chances of an INC-NCP alliance with VBA is pretty much gone and INC-NCP will have to hope Dalit and Muslim anti-NDA tactical voting will see them through. 

[jaichind]

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/govt-bans-onion-export-imposes-stock-limit-on-traders-764896.html

Fearing that rising onion prices could hit BJP chances in the upcoming elections the Indian government has imposed and export ban on onions which is sending onion prices upward at a rapid rate for various importing nations of Indian onions.  The Indian government also imposed on onion wholesalers caps on how much onions they can hold to deal with assertions of "hording."  Overall this is hurting the rural sector, especially rural farm traders and helping urban dwellers.  It sort of shows where the BJP thinks their vote might be weak in the upcoming election.

[jaichind]

Surely the BJP is so powerful at this point they don't even need Shiv Sena as a partner to get into government?

Well if it is BJP vs SHS vs INC-NCP I think BJP wins a plurality but not a majority.  But BJP can then break the SHS post-election and form a government on its own.   

In fact a BJP vs SHS vs INC-NCP would destroy INC-NCP long term since it would mean INC and NCP defectors would rush to BJP and perhaps SHS who will hand out tickets.  So even if INC-NCP wins a few extra seats in a 3 way race the long term INC and especially NCP base would be eroded. 

So why is BJP not taking this route?  Well I suspect most Maharashtra state BJP are mostly pushing for this.  It is the national BJP that seems to be taking it safe approach to ensure a large majority.  This difference also because of how the national BJP (read Modi-Shah) and the Maharashtra see the post-2014 BJP surge.  The national BJP sees it as a Modi led realignment so a permanent BJP majority nationally and in Maharashtra  is coming soon so there is no rush to finish off INC-NCP vote base.  The Maharashtra BJP sees the post-2014 BJP surge is partly realignment but also a temporary surge in BJP support on the back of anti-incumbency after 3 terms of INC-NCP state government.  Ergo the Maharashtra BJP is pushing for a path to finish off the INC-NCP vote base when they have the edge which could be fleeting

In the end it seems that the national BJP had its way and an alliance with SHS patched up.  BTW, SHS seems to also believe that this BJP surge is temporary so they choose to hold their head down and accept junior status and wait for its chance to get back on top the next couple if elections cycles.    In the meantime SHS comes out with

https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/story/maharashtra-will-get-a-shiv-sena-cm-aaditya-thackeray-files-nomination-papers-1605854-2019-10-03

"Maharashtra will soon get a Shiv Sena CM, says Aaditya Thackeray as he files nomination papers"

to keep their cadres  motivated even as they now have accepted junior status vis-a-vis BJP.

[jaichind]

https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/story/maharashtra-assembly-polls-rebellion-headache-looms-large-for-bjp-shiv-sena-1605738-2019-10-03

"Maharashtra Assembly polls: Rebellion headache looms large for BJP, Shiv Sena"

Is not a surprise given how many defectors BJP and SHS took in from the opposition in the run up to the election.  With so many local leaders to accommodate within BJP and SHS and now the large number of defectors from INC and NCP, there is no way BJP and SHS can accommodate everyone once they went into an alliance.  if they ran separately then this would work and would in fact pull in another wave of INC and NCP defectors. 

In the 1980s-1990s it was INC vs the rest with INC rebels taking a large bloc of votes and seats.  In think this time it will be BJP-SHS vs the rest with a large number of votes and perhaps seats won by BJP and to some extent SHS rebels.

[jaichind]

https://thewire.in/politics/bjp-unethical-behaviour-sad-ally-inld-haryana

"Accusing BJP of ‘Unethical’ Behaviour, SAD Ties up With INLD in Haryana"

Historically SAD has allied with INLD in Haryana even as it is allied with BJP in Punjab.  SAD won a seat in the 2014 Haryana assembly elections as part of its alliance with INLD.  For 2019 with INLD pretty much finished BJP approached SAD for an alliance to rope in the Sikh vote.  SAD agreed to enter into negotiations.  Then for some reason a faction of the Haryana BJP got the sole SAD MLA to join BJP.  Furious, SAD, has decided to restore its alliance with INLD. Of course INLD-SAD is way weaker now than in 2014 let alone the early 2000s.  But this story is another example of the BJP eating into various regional parties.

The main problem with many Indian regional parties are they they were built as an anti-INC forces to take on INC.  So when BJP rose as the main party of India nothing in these regional party DNA allowed it to be able to take on BJP.  There might be a mass extension even for Indian regional parties before a new generation of regional parties that can be formed to take on BJP.  Some might evolve other will die.

[jaichind]

Thanks jaichind

what is the actual electorate of Shiv Sena as opposed to the BJP? I know a bit about the Thackeray cult and how the party was originally based around Marathi interests back in the day, but what niche do they fill that isn't being filled by the saffron party? Is it still just for Marathis who think the state is dominated by Gujratis and Southerners?

SHS are urban/coastal Marathas.  NCP are rural and interior Marathas.  INC are Muslim and Dalits which are more concentrated in coastal areas.  BJP are Gujaratis, Upper Caste and OBCs.  There is a movement for Vidarbha in far East Maharashtra to form an independent state to get away from domination of Mumbai/Coastal Maharashtra which BJP supports and in turn have shifted toward BJP and away from INC.

SHS base has mostly been the same since the late 1970s although it started as a Maratha regionalist  force and did not embrace Hindu nationalism consistently until the mid 1980s.  In the 1970s SHS backed INC in many cases and even had an alliance with the Muslim IMUL in 1979.  The shift to Hindu nationalism was partly to avoid losing support to BJP in the competition for the OBC vote and outflank the BJP there and still retain its Maratha base.

[jaichind]

In Maharashtra BJP-SHS announces last details of their alliance only on Oct 4th which is the last day to file nominations to try to prevent BJP and SHS ticket aspirants from filing as an independent rebel due to lack of time.  Overall it did not work as there seems to be a large number of SHS and especially BJP rebels.  It seems lot of old time BJP leaders were denied tickets and the BJP continue to morph into the INC of the 1980s where Modi's job is to fetch votes and you avoid internal feuds by not having mass leaders at the local levels so everyone is dependent on Modi for votes.  It was like this for INC in the 1980s period.

Given the large number of rebels I suspect BJP-SHS will not win this massive majority that they have been claiming (220+ seats out of 288.)  I suspect they will be at 180-200 with INC-NCP at 60-80 with VBA AIMIM and other minor parties winning few seats but at least something like 15 seats won by rebels of all stripes although mostly BJP and SHS rebels.     

[jaichind]

https://www.opindia.com/2019/10/viral-video-shows-ahmed-patel-asking-where-the-party-has-gone-in-haryana-after-told-about-dismal-internal-survey-results-for-assembly-elections/



It seems in a video of INC leaders including former Haryana INC CM Hooda discussing INC prospects in the Haryana assembly elections Hooda indicates that INC internal survey has INC at 14 out of 90 seats.  If INC can get to that level that would be good result when compared to other public polls.  In the end I suspect INC will get to around 15 seats given the large number of BJP rebels in the fray.  Of course INC has its own share of rebels but the decline of INC does have the advantage that INC rebels have a smaller base as well and will do a lot less damage BJP rebels will do.  

[jaichind]

https://www.deccanherald.com/assembly-election-2019/bjp-sena-faces-rebellion-in-30-odd-maharashtra-seats-766879.html

BJP-SHS managed to get a bunch of rebels with withdraw but will face significant rebellion in at least 30 seats.  INC-NCP actually have tactical alliances with some BJP-SHS rebels as well as separate tactical alliances with NMS in some parts of urban coastal Maharashtra

[jaichind]

So in Maharashtra the seat sharing would be

NDA
BJP      152
SHS     124
RPI(A)     4 (will contest on BJP symbol)
SSP         3 (will contest on BJP symbol)
RKS         3 (SWP splinter, will contest on BJP symbol)
RSP         2 (will contest on BJP symbol)

UPA
INC      145
NCP     123
PWP        6
SWP        4
RPI(K)     3
BVA         3
BRSP       2 (BSP splinter)
Minor       2

SP's alliance with UPA fell through and will not be part of UPA alliance

UPA has some weak candidates in a bunch of seats where it is clear they are tactically backing NMS or BJP/SHS rebel to take down NDA.

NMS will contest 103 seats, mostly in Coastal Maharashtra and could cut into SHS votes.  VBA-AIMIM alliance collapsed so VBA will contest all 288 seats with AIMIM contesting 44.  UPA has to hope that the collapse of the VBA-AIMIM alliance means the anti-NDA marginal Dalit and Muslim votes will shift back to UPA to prevent a NDA total landslide.

[jaichind]

Jan Ki Baat poll for Maharashtra has massive landslide for BJP-SHS over INC-NCP




Medium estimate

             Seat      Vote Share
NDA      227           57%
 BJP        143           33%
 SHS         84           24%
UPA        50           26%
 INC         22           11%
 NCP        28           15%
NMS        0             1%
AIMIM     0             2%
Others   11           14%



Jan Ki Baat poll for Haryana also has massive BJP landslide




Medium projection
       
               Seat     Vote share
BJP             68           56.7%
INC              8            9.6%
INLD-SAD     1            3.1%             
JJP               8          26.7%
Others          5            4.9%

What this poll has is NDA holding its 2019 LS vote share while UPA vote share drifts to other regional rivals and/or minor candidates/rebels.   While NDA will win both by a good margin I am not sure they can hold their 2019 LS vote share.  The  Haryana poll is very problematic for INC not because of the BJP vote share but that JJP is the main rival to BJP versus INC.   If true then INC might be in terminal decline in  Haryana.

[jaichind]

These assembly elections has BJP double down with its 2014 strategy of spurring the dominate caste of the state to consolidate a coalition of all non-Muslim forces outside of dominate caste and then use Modi to make nationalist appeals to get enough of the dominate caste to vote BJP to form a massive majority.  In Maharashtra BJP has worked to consolidate all non-Maratha non-Muslim vote and then use revocation of Article 370 of J&K to rally the nationalist sentiment of Marathas to vote BJP.  The BJP CM Devendra Fadnavis is a non-Maratha Upper caste background is the glue in this strategy.  In Haryana the dominate caste are Jats the BJP strategy is the same where it consolidates all non-Jat non-Muslims and then use its nationalist appeal to rope in enough Jat votes to vote BJP.  The BJP CM Manohar Lal Khattar who is a non-Jat Upper Caste background is also the glue of that strategy.    Modi then plays the role of the nationalist rallying point so the BJP vote becomes a cross-caste nationalist vote PLUS the consolidation of all non-dominate caste vote.

[jaichind]

Cvoter poll.

Maharashtra NDA 194 UPA 85 Others 9. 
Haryana BJP 83 INC 4 Others 3

The Haryana poll result is massive.  I think both polls underestimate Others

[jaichind]

In general how do each of the castes vote?
And what about the language groups?
I saw something once about Modi being from a water carrying caste - has this had any effect?

BJP strong with Upper Castes and OBCs and weak in Muslims.  Some Upper Caste support for INC and depending on the state non-BJP OBC voters would vote for regional parties while non-BJP Dalit votes would vote INC or BSP.  Non-BJP tribal vote goes to INC or some regional party depending on the state.

Nationwide CSDS post-election survey on BJP vote

It seems the real growth of the NDA are with OBC voters.  The NDA growth with Upper Caste was relatively small when compared to the NDA growth with OBCs.  Surprisingly Dalit and Tribal votes also swung toward NDA.

                                    BJP               BJP allies
                             2014   2019      2014     2019
All Hindus                  36    44            7           8
Hindu Upper castes     47    52            9          7
Hindu OBCs               34     44           8         10
Hindu Dalits               24     34           6           7
Hindu Adivasis            37    44           3           2
Muslims                      8      8            1           1
Christians                   7     11          10           5
Sikhs                        16    11           33         20

Vote share of BJP in states by language group.  BJP very strong in Hindi states and getting stronger in non-Hindi Indo-Aryan states while weak in Dravidan and Sino-Tibetian states.  Of course Sino-Tibetian states are easier to co-op.

Back on the topic of NDA/BJP performance in states grouped by languages. I also computed vote share in the 1991-2019 period by such groups.

NDA total
                    1991    1996    1998     1999     2004    2009    2014    2019
Hindi             29.5%   37.1%  40.7%  42.8%  34.7%  31.8%  46.4%  55.3%
Indo-Aryan    22.0%   21.7%  39.9%  41.1%  38.4%  28.0%  37.5%  48.1%
Sino-Tibetian   5.3%    5.1%   13.2%  10.1%  18.5%   7.2%   31.2%  29.0%
Dravidian        5.5%    4.7%   27.0%  40.3%  33.5%   3.9%   26.2%  17.9%
Total            20.9%   23.9%   37.5%  41.3%   35.8% 24.1%  38.9%   45.4%

BJP only
                    1991    1996     1998    1999     2004    2009    2014    2019
Hindi             29.5%  32.1%   35.7%  34.1%  30.1%  25.9%  44.2%  49.6%
Indo-Aryan    19.9%  17.6%   22.2%  23.1%  22.4%  20.4%  29.9%  39.8%
Sino-Tibetian   5.3%    5.1%    9.0%    5.6%   13.2%   7.2%  11.4%  19.8%
Dravdian         5.4%    4.6%   12.1%   8.2%    7.7%    3.7%    6.9%    7.2%
Total             20.1%  20.3%   25.6%  24.0%  22.3%  18.7%  31.1%  37.6%

BJP allies
                    1991    1996     1998    1999     2004    2009    2014    2019
Hindi              0.0%    5.0%    5.0%    8.7%    4.6%   6.0%    2.2%   5.7%
Indo-Aryan     2.1%    4.1%   17.7%  18.1%  16.0%   7.7%    7.6%   8.4%
Sino-Tibetian   0.0%   0.0%     4.2%    4.5%    5.3%   0.0%  19.8%   9.2%
Dravidain        0.0%   0.1%   15.0%   32.2%  25.8%   0.2%  19.3% 10.7%
Total              0.8%    3.6%   11.8%   17.3%  13.5%   5.4%   7.8%    7.7%

Some main takeaways
1) BJP core strength in the 1990s was in the Hindi areas but had a solid based of around 20% in non-Hindi Indo-Aryan areas where they were able to leverage that base to gain allies in 1996-2004.
2) BJP always weak in Dravidian area and only did well in the 1998-1999 period due to its ability to gain allies (AIADMK/DMK and NTRTDP/TDP).  The 1998 BJP vote share in Dravidian states in 1998 is artificially high as BJP ally in undivided AP, NTRTDP, let BJP run in most LS seats with their support as NTRTDP was focused on winning power at the state assembly level.
3) After 2004 defeat BJP lost a lot of allies which drove down its vote share across the board as it became not viable in many states in 2009
4) The 2014 surge was mostly in Hindi areas and to some extent non-Hindi Indo-Aryan areas while regaining some allies in Dravidian areas (PMK/DMDK/MDMK and TDP)
5) The 2019 surge was mostly in Non-Hindi Indo-Aryan areas while gaining some more in Hindi areas but the gains are mostly due to new allies (JD(U) in Bihar and AJSU in Jharkhand) while in Dravidian areas the BJP brand lost it allies (TDP) or dragged down the performance of new allies (AIADMK)
6) As of 2019 the BJP is truely a Hindu Indo-Aryan party that dominates that region with the help of allies.
7) The INC position in 2019 is not that dire.  In 2019 INC won 19.7% of the vote with UPA winning 27.1% of the vote.  Both numbers are higher than BJP (18.7%) and NDA (24.1%) respectively in 2009.   In many ways 2019 wiped out a lot of rivals of INC for the main opponent to the BJP. If and when BJP declines the INC is expected to gain once it can survive the current crisis of leadership.

As for Modi being from a OBC caste that is part of his appeal.  The BJP Hindu nationalism narrative is to overcome traditional OBC and Dalit hostilely to traditional Upper caste social domination  by offering them with being part of the same ruling bloc.  Upper caste members will still be the leaders overall due to merit and social capital issues but there is no reason why an OBC like Modi cannot be made the leader of the overall movement.  Modi is a symbol of the OBC joining up with the Hindu nationalist narrative.

[jaichind]

With BJP heading to a landslide re-election in Haryana led by BJP CM Manohar Lal Khattar he is already being hailed as the "4th Lal" of Haryana politics.  The 4 Lals pretty much controlled the CM position except for the 2005-2014 CM and INC Jat leader Bhupinder Singh Hooda.

The key attribute of Haryana politics are the domination of Haryana by the land owning Jats who make up 27% of the population and non-Jat coalitions to try to contain Jat power.  Haryana politics from the 1960s to 2005 are dominated by the "3 Lals"

Bansi Lal (who is a Jat)


Devi Lal (who is also a Jat)


And Bhajan Lal (who is a non-Jat)

 
The "3 Lals"

 

[jaichind]

In Maharashtra it is clear that BJP-SHS will sweep to victory.  Yet both parties are sparing no effort or expense in their campaigning.  This is because the real race is between BJP and SHS.  Both are trying to win the most seats to put them in a better position in the post-election bargaining. SHS is determined to get the DCM spot for Aditya Thackeray if not the CM spot.  Given the seat allocation between BJP and SHS it is clear that the seats that the SHS will end up with as a RATIO of the seats BJP will end up with will be better than 1:2 in 2014.  This puts pressure on BJP as even if the BJP is able to continue holding the CM spot having a SHS DCM means that the SHS will be able to poke its nose in all aspects of the BJP administration.  This is why toward the end of the campaign there are some signs of snipping between BJP and SHS leaders given this tension and the fact that INC-NCP seems to be well beaten.

[jaichind]

Voting in progress.  Turnout so far does not seem that high in either Maharashtra or Haryana with rural turnout higher than urban turnout so far.