2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019

[jaichind]

I am not clear why BJP want to crave Ladakh out of J&K because that removes some possibility pro-BJP votes out of J&K and make a BJP victory in a future J&K even less likely.  I assume the calculation the BJP is making is that this move will de-legitimize JKN and PDP so much that the Kashmir vote will be split many ways with many separatists also in the fray with ultra-low turnout and perhaps BJP could even win a few seats in Kashmir while the BJP sweeps Jammu including the Muslim majority areas using the same dynamic.

[jaichind]

The J&K move seems like a masterstroke by Modi-Shah.  INC came out against it but there are significant forces within INC for it which splits INC down the middle.  Factions of INC that are focused on the Hindu vote are for while factions that are more dependent on Muslim votes are against.  This move will accelerate defections from INC to BJP and ensure BJP domination of the political scene for the next couple election cycles. Even AAP had to support this lest it loses its Hindu vote in Delhi.

[jaichind]

With almost all the votes counted in Vellore LS election DMK marginally beats out AIADMK.  Vellore  LS election was delayed due to large amounts of cash found in warehouses controlled by the DMK.  The result is

DMK       47.33%
AIADMK  46.49%
NTK          2.62%

With this the final seat count in TN is DMK-INC-VCK-CPI-CPM-IMUL-MDMK-KMDK-IJK bloc 38 and AIADMK-BJP-PMK-DMDK-PT-TMC-PNK bloc 1.

[jaichind]

So far it is clear that the BJP is winning the Article 370 Kashmir issue.  The reason is simple, this move is having the effect of breaking INC.   During the days when INC was the dominate ruling party and had an incentive to extend the power of the center, INC also worked to chisel away the Article 370 autonomy rights for Kashmir anyway.  So INC of the 1950s to 1990s did not really believe in Article 370 for Kashmir.  Now INC is in the opposition it is trapped between its role of being the main opposition party but also the role as former dominate ruling party.  This is splitting INC down the middle  and aid in BJP just picking off more parts of INC that are looking to defect.

In Maharashtra the level of defections from INC and especially NCP to BJP has gotten so high that BJP has closed the door on defections.  So these potential defectors in INC and NCP now are going to SHS.  In the end these defections will add less to the BJP-SHS victory than one would expect but it is clear that they have the edge over the  weakened INC-NCP bloc.  The Kashmir issue has mostly ensured a victory, perhaps landslide victory, for the BJP in Haryana, Jharkhand, and Maharashtra.

The Kashmir move also solidifies the BJP projection of being the Indo-Aryan Hindu party.  While this projection leaves out Muslim areas like Kashmir and deep South Dravidian states like TN and Kerala it is enough to set up the BJP as a dominate ruling party for a few election cycles and gives it the leverage to co-op these area outside its direct control.     

[jaichind]

INC working group finally accepts Rahul Gandhi's resignation and in his place elects Sonia Gandhi as INC Prez.   Not sure if she will accept but she might have no choice unless she is ready to see INC just start falling apart.

[jaichind]

The crisis of INC is really that all INC state units are so faction ridden that only with someone from Gandhi clan at the helm could arbitrate between these factions.  Recently the BJP got a large chunk of INC MLAs to defect over in Goa to give BJP a majority government.  The evolution of the Goa assembly tells the story of INC factions

In 2017 assembly elections the results were

INC  17
NCP   1
GFP   3 (tactical alliance with INC)
IND   1  (INC backed)  

BJP  13
MGP  3 (BJP ally pre-2017 election that broke with BJP for the election)
IND   1 (BJP backed)

INC   1 (true independent)

INC should have been able to form the government with GFP but it was too slow to work out a deal with GFP which backed a BJP government led by Manohar Parrikar as the BJP roped in all 3 independents and MGP.  So the assembly was

Government (22)
BJP   13
MGP   3
GFP    3
IND    3

Opposition (18)
INC  17
NCP   1  

Of course this arrangement is very unstable for BJP which worked to add to its number.  Within a couple of months of forming the government the BJP got one of the INC MLAs to defect to BJP which triggered a by-election which the INC rebel MLA (himself a son of a former INC CM of Goa) won as BJP candidate.  So the assembly became

Government (23)
BJP   14
MGP   3
GFP    3
IND    3

Opposition (17)
INC  16
NCP   1  

Then the BJP got 2 more INC MLAs to defect to BJP and run in by-elections as the BJP candidate.  But both lost so the assembly composition by party did not change.

Then 2 of BJP's MLAs passed away one being BJP CM Manohar Parrikar.  This was a major crisis for BJP since Manohar Parrikar a good reason why GFP and MGP backed the BJP government was their support of Manohar Parrikar.

In March 2019 BJP's Pramod Sawant was sworn in as CM and won a very narrow vote of confidence.  And that was only done by making the leader of MGP and GFP as DCM created a fairly unstable government for BJP.

Government (21)
BJP   12
MGP   3
GFP    3
IND    3

Opposition (17)
INC  16
NCP   1  

But within a week of this government being formed BJP got 2 MGP MLAs to join BJP and dropped the remaining MGP leader and DCM from the cabinet.  As a result of the death of 2 BJP MLA and 2 MGP MLA defections which required by-elections there was 4 by-elections.  BJP won 3 of them and INC 1.  INC actually won BJP CM Manohar Parrikar's old seat.  So the Goa composition became

Government (22)
BJP   15
GFP    3
MGP   1
IND    3

Opposition (18)
INC  17
NCP   1  

Then in a coup in July 10 INC MLAs defected to BJP including 2 INC factions as well as the INC MLA that was just elected in the by-election winning BJP CM Manohar Parrikar's old seat.  The number of these INC defectors included a lot of Catholics MLAs which historically has been the most hostile to BJP.  But given the BJP government was becoming more secure they had to jump ship before other INC MLAs got there first and the BJP would be no longer interested in paying for defections.

To get to the punch line, the reason why the BJP won over INC last the last 2 years because BJP has been on the offense to win over defectors as well as using the lure of office to trade power for numbers to form a government.  The reason the INC could not act as fast as BJP is INC itself was divided into 4-5 factions where there are as many as 5 CM aspirants.  So anytime the INC high command would start to act to lure defectors and form alliances to form a government these INC factions would jump into the fray to bloc their rival INC faction leaders from getting the CM seats.  As a result a 2017 assembly result which favored the INC has turned into a majority BJP government.

So the idea behind getting the Gandhi clan to be the head of INC is that without such a setup then in every state the INC will devolve into the INC of Goa.

[jaichind]

India Today Mood of the Nation poll done BEFORE the J&K article 370 revocation

Best PM ever has Modi beating Indira Gandhi 37-14 which is a large surge for Modi.  The last peak for Modi was right after Demonetization which was a great political success even as it was a policy disaster 



Impression of economic situation continues to decline as better/worse ration declines to 49/28



INC in terminal decline? Yes 50% No 37%
Who best to lead INC:  Priyanka Gandhi 15%, Rahul Gandhi 11%, Sonia Gandhi 7%

[jaichind]

The effectiveness of Modi to keep on nationalizing politics seems to indicate that it is likely there will be  a mass extinction  event for many regional parties.  INC will survive but will only be relevant in parts of the country.  The main problem will be the various regional parties which all got hit in 2019 LS elections.  Most of these regional parties were built to counter INC(INLD, TDP, JD(S), JD(U), SP, BSP, RLD etc etc)  (AITC was built to counter Left Front.)  With INC on the decline there is nothing in regional parties DNA to be able to deal with a surging BJP.  Many of them will die out to make way for future anti-BJP regional parties built to counter BJP.  Some of these new regional parties will displace INC and some will become allies of INC to counter BJP or even both.   But during this transition the BJP will remain the one and only dominate national party.

One example is in Karnataka with by-elections coming up to determine control of the Karnataka assembly there are signs that INC is running out of money to fight these elections which BJP continues to receive massive funding.  The funding gap between BJP and INC now seems to be on the order of 10 to 1.  In Sikkim a large number of old BJP ally and former ruling party SDF MLA just defected to BJP which clears the way for BJP to grow in Sikkim just like Arunchal Pradesh a few years ago.  This is facilitated by the BJP controlled the federal subsidies for Sikkim.

[jaichind]

Given escalation with Pakistan over Kashmir India defense minister Rajnath Singh says that India will reconsider the "no first use" of nuclear weapons.

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/india-no-first-use-nuclear-policy-may-change-rajnath-singh-1581403-2019-08-16

[jaichind]

The Haryana, Jharkhand and Maharashtra  assembly elections will most likely take place in late Oct or early Nov.  So far it seems the BJP has fairly strong momentum in all 3 states to beat back anti-incumbency.

In Haryana there seems for a while that former INC CM and Jat leader Bhupinder Singh Hooda would split from INC but he seems to have been humored for now.  BSP which broke its alliance with INLD for the LS elections formed an alliance with INLD splinter JJP which had an alliance with AAP for the LS elections seems to have broken that alliance too.  There are talk of a INC-BSP alliance but I suspect that will end up being nothing.  I with the anti-BJP opposition split the INC is wise to focus on the Jat vote so it becomes the main Opposition to BJP and try to collect anti-BJP tactical votes even as BJP seems poised for a landslide victory.

In  Jharkhand INC-JMM-JVM work to try to continue their LS alliance.  Not clear it will hold. BJP-AJSU seems to be in a strong position to win re-election even though I think the scale of the BJP victory will not be as large as many in the BJP would expect.

In Maharashtra  it seems both INC and NCP are falling apart with large scale defections from INC but especially NCP to BJP and sometimes SHS.  At least this means that INC-NCP alliance will be worked out given how weak both parties have become. On paper the BJP-SHS alliance will share the seats 50/50.  But for the BJP that will not work.  Given the large number of INC and NCP kingpins plus all the BJP incumbent MLAs to accommodate the BJP will have to contest at least significant majority of the 288 seats.  SHS will not accept this but it might not have no choice since even a BJP vs INC-NCP vs SHS battle could result in a BJP plurality it not majority with SHS being cut out of power and BJP will poach whatever SHS MLAs that SHS manages to win.  I think in the end BJP-SHS alliance will be formed with SHS backing down and accepting a junior role and a BJP CM.     

[jaichind]

INC is still rudderless after Sonia Gandhi took over again as interim President as it is not able to recapture the narrative of INC as the nature party of Indian nationalism and unity.  For upcoming assembly elections INC can only hope to come in strong second  place to BJP and hope that is good enough for it not to fall apart so it can try a long term revival plan.   

It seems in MP where the INC government holds a slim majority INC leader Jyotiraditya Scindia is close to raising the standard of revolt given his hostility with INC CM Kamal Nath.  It is possible that Jyotiraditya Scindia might defect to BJP.  Former BJP CM of  Rajasthan Vasundhara Raje is his aunt and his grandmother Vijaya Raje Scindia was a key leader in pro-BJP BJS and brought the Scindia royal family into the BJS/BJP.  If  Jyotiraditya Scindia and his followers do defect to BJP then just like Karnataka the INC government in MP will fall and be replace by a BJP CM.

[jaichind]

Ex-SHS Maharashtra CM Narayan Rane has joined BJP.  Narayan Rane has pretty much joined or allied with all 4 main Maharashtra parties.   


He started with SHS and was tapped by SHS founder and leader Bal Thackeray to take over as SHS CM in 1999 as the SHS-BJP government face re-election in 1999.  SHS-BJP was defeated by INC and NCP who fought separately in 1999 so Narayan Rane  had to resigned as CM after the 1999 assembly elections.  After the 1999 elections it was clear that Bal Thackeray grooming his son Uddhav Thackeray to become the leader of SHS.  Narayan Rane was hostile to Uddhav Thackeray and defected to INC with his faction within SHS with a promise that INC will eventually make him CM again.  It was a promise that INC failed to honer and after several threats to quit INC,  Narayan Rane finally left INC in 2017.  He actually wanted to join BJP but BJP did not due to objections from SHS.  So Narayan Rane formed MSP and allied with BJP and was elected to the Rajya Sabha with BJP support which did lead to tensions between BJP and SHS.  In early 2019 Narayan Rane broke with BJP and was going to ally with NCP but his attempt to join UPA was voted by INC.  In the end MSP ran separately in the 2019 LS elections. 

Now that the BJP has a strong hand relative to the SHS after a large number of INC and NCP defectors in the aftermath of the LS election the BJP decide to take in Narayan Rane into BJP which will only inflame BJP-SHS relations.  But it seems BJP does not care and want to show SHS who is boss.

[jaichind]

It seems elections for Haryana and Maharashtra will be in Oct while elections for Jharkhand will be in Nov which will be held in phases to deal with Maoist Naxalite guerillas.

[jaichind]

Some historical info of Maharashtra elections.  


This state has been dominated by the INC until the 1977 LS elections.  2 key people that was part of making Maharashtra competitive are Sharad Pawar who is now the leader of INC splinter NCP
 
and Bal Thackeray who is the founder of SHS


In the 1970s Sharad Pawar was a rising superstar in the INC and was being groomed by INC titan CM during the early 1960s Yashwantrao Chavan as a future leader of INC.  Bal Thackeray  was a cartoonist that started a Maratha nativist  and populist movement in the 1960s and was mostly active in Bombey city politics and mostly fought against both INC and CPI/CPM.

In 1977 all the non-INC opposition national parties INC(O) BJS (proto-BJP) SSP PSP and BKD merged into JNP to take on INC and a grand coalition of JNP and other local opposition parties narrowly defeated INC in the LS elections mainly due to excesses of Indira Gandhi 1975-1977 emergency.


1977 Maharashtra LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+        48                 20             47.85% (RPI was part of INC+)
 
CPI            4                   0               0.67%

JNP+        48                28              47.90% (PWPI CPM RPI(K) were part of JNP+)

AIFB          2                   0               1.08%

The INC was defeated at the national level but INC's strength in Maharashtra avoided it being completely crushed like in other parts of Northern India and mostly fought JNP+ to a draw.  The fall of INC and Indira Gandhi's attempt to retain control of INC led to the pro-Indira Gandhi INC(I) being formed and running separately from INC in the 1978 Maharashtra  assembly elections  leading to a 3 way battle between INC, INC(I) and JNP.   Sharad Pawar and his mentor Yashwantrao Chavan were anti-Indira Gandhi and were part of INC.


1978 Maharashtra assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC(I)+     245               79              23.39% (AIFB was part of INC(I)+)

INC(I) rebel                     6                2.04%

INC+        272               70              26.28% (MUL was part of INC)

INC rebel                        1                0.61%
 
RPI            25                 2                1.06% (tactical alliance with INC+)

CPI            48                 1                1.48%

JNP+       263              114              32.28% (CPM RPI(K) were part of JNP+)

JNP rebel                        2                0.50%

PWPI        88                13                5.54% (tactical alliance with JNP+)

SHS         35                  0                 1.82%

INC and INC(I) formed a post-election alliance to kept JNP out.  This only lasted a few month until Sharad Pawar led his own anti-Indira Gandhi faction of INC out of INC and became CM with support of JNP.  This will be the first of 3 times Sharad Pawar will become CM of Maharashtra.

[jaichind]

By 1979 the JNP has split into JNP and JNP(S) and its government at the federal fell leading to the 1980 LS election.  In the meantime INC(I) split with an anti-Indira Gandhi faction merged with INC and  Sharad Pawar's faction to form INC(U) with Sharad Pawar as its leader in Maharashtra.    The disgust with the JNP failed 1977-1979 government lead to an INC(I) victory.

1980 Maharashtra LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC(I)       48                 39               53.30%

INC(I) rebel                     0                 0.60%

RPI           23                  0                 1.74%

INC(U)+    35                  1               16.21% (PWPI CPM CPI were part of INC(U)+)

JNP(S)      17                  0                 1.06% (tactical alliance with INC(U)+)

JNP+        39                  8                22.11% (RPI(K) was part of JNP+)

JNP rebel                        0                  0.73%

SHS          2                   0                   0.70%

After the INC(I) landslide in Maharashtra and nationally Indira Gandhi returned as PM as BJP which is the successor party of the old BJS split out from JNP.  In Maharashtra Sharad Pawar's INC(U) government fell and new assembly election were called leading to another INC(I) landslide.


1980 Maharashtra assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC(I)+     288             187              44.95%

INC(I) rebel                    2                 1.09%

INC(U)+    205              52               22.16%

INC(U) rebel                   2                 0.44%

JNP+        126                9                 9.83% (CPM was part of JNP+)

CPI            17                 2                1.31% (tactical alliance with JNP+)
 
PWPI         41                 9                 4.14% (tactical alliance with JNP+)

RPI(K)       42                 1                 1.36% (tactical alliance with JNP+)

BJP+       147               14                 9.53% (backed by SHS)

RPI           38                 0                 0.94%

Due to the JNP-BJP split  Sharad Pawar 's INC(U) emerges as the main opposition to the INC(I).  SHS shifts toward Hindu nationalism in addition to the  Maratha nativist appeal and helps the BJP to establish itself as a significant opposition party in Maharashtra.

[jaichind]

After INC(I) (now just called INC) returned to power in Maharashtra the state saw a series of short lived INC CMs all of whom were seen as Indira Gandhi sycophants.  The INC was clearly losing ground in the state until Indira Gandhi assassination which propelled the INC to a landslide victory nationwide in 1984.  In Maharashtra INC won by a large margin as well but not as large as 1980 which goes to show the relative decline of INC despite de facto SHS support to INC in 1984 with the INC running on the nationalist plank.  JNP run in an alliance with INC(U) (now called ICS) and was able to save a few seats as the BJP split the anti-INC vote.


1984 Maharashtra LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+         48                43               51.42%

INC rebel                        0                1.38%

ICS+         48                  5              29.73% (JNP PWPI CPM CPI RPI(K) BRP were part of ICS+)

BJP+         22                  0              10.55%


After the INC 1984 LS landslide came the 1985 Maharashtra  assembly elections.  To counter the INC Sharad Pawar worked to get BJP to join the anti-INC alliance and was able to hold the INC to a smaller victory aided by a large number of INC rebels although JNP and ICS had its own share of rebels that were not happy about not being nominated as part of the grand anti-INC alliance.  SHS who also objected to working with JNP ran separately and also cut into the anti-INC vote.


1985 Maharashtra assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+         288             162              43.57%

INC rebel                        9                4.85%

ICS+         286             104              35.98% (JNP BJP PWPI were part of ICS+)

ICS rebel                        1                 0.91%
JNP rebel                        6                 1.25%

SHS           20                 1                 1.59%

CPI+          65                5                 2.61% (CPM RPI(K) were part of CPI+)

RPI+          57                0                 1.25%

[jaichind]

After the INC victory in 1985 the trend in national politics was moving toward Hindu nationalism and with it the rise of the BJP.  In Maharashtra this came in the form of the rapid rise of SHS as a political force spreading beyond its Bombay core into the rest of Maharashtra as an ally of BJP. 

In 1987 claiming that he need to stop the rise of  SHS Sharad Pawar took most of ICS (leaving a small rump behind) and merged back into the INC.  Of course  Sharad Pawar desire for power clearly played a role.  This move proved to be a boom for SHS-BJP as they quickly moved in to capture the opposition space in Maharashtra elbowing out JNP.  Given the rise of SHS-BJP INC high command made  Sharad Pawar CM to to try to use his popularity among Marathas to try to counter SHS-BJP despite a large number of anti- Sharad Pawar factions within INC.  In the 1989 LS elections  Sharad Pawar led INC to a small victory over BJP-SHS and JD (JNP and LKD merged to form JD) even as INC was defeated across North India


1989 Maharashtra LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           48                28               45.36%

INC rebel                        0                 0.74%

JD+           44                 6               19.31% (BRP PWPI CPI CPM ICS were part of JD+)

JD rebel                          0                 1.16%

BJP+         40                14               28.27% (SHS was part of BJP+)

RPI(K)         8                  0                0.75%

BSP          30                  0                 0.66%


The SHS-BJP alliance (for LS elections BJP as the national party was the leader of the alliance but in state elections SHS is the senior partner) has emerged as the main opposition to INC.   In the 1990 Maharashtra assembly elections one again Sharad Pawar led INC to victory despite widespread INC rebellion but the opposition space continues to consolidate around SHS-BJP


1990 Maharashtra assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+         284             143              38.95%

INC rebel                        8                4.46%
ex-ICS                            1                0.71% (INC rebel with ICS background)

RPI            21                 0                0.70% (tactical alliance with INC+)

JD+          215              24               12.86%

CPM+         29                5                 1.61% (tactical alliance with JD+)

PWPI          40                8                 2.42% (tactical alliance with JD+)

BRP           43                0                  1.14%

ICS+         72                 1                 1.10% (rump ICS)

SHS+       288              94               26.83% (BJP was part of SHS+)

SHS rebel                      0                  0.38%
BJP rebel                       1                  0.70%

RPI(K)       18                1                  0.70%

MUL            9                1                   0.51%

Sharad Pawar helped INC win re-election and continued as CM with SHS-BJP being the main opposition bloc.  In retrospect Sharad Pawar as leader of the opposition merging his ICS into INC proved the critical moment for the rise of SHS-BJP into contention in Maharashtra  since they were able to occupy the opposition space left by Sharad Pawar. It could be that the rise of SHS-BJP would have taken place even without that even but Sharad Pawar's move certainly sped up that process.

[jaichind]

The JD government fell in 1991 after JD(S) split from JD leading to the 1991 LS elections.  It seems that the BJP was destined to surge in 1991 but the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi drove a pro-INC sympathy wave giving the a near majority overall.  In Maharashtra one again Sharad Pawar as CM led INC to victory riding the sympathy wave for INC even as SHS-BJP consolidate their position as the main opposition in the state.


1991 Maharashtra LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           48                38               48.40%

JD+          48                  1               17.22%(BRP PWPI CPM CPI RPI(K) were part of JD+)

JD(S)        23                  0                0.71%

BJP+         48                 9               29.64% (SHS was part of BJP+)

BSP          30                 0                 0.48%

There was an expectation after the victory of INC that Sharad Pawar would be made INC PM.  Instead dark house candidate AP INC leader Narasimha Rao was called out of retirement to be PM due to objections by Sonia Gandhi to Sharad Pawar being made PM.  Instead Sharad Pawar was asked to become Minister of Defense under Narasimha Rao.  This planted the seeds of rebellion of the Sharad Pawar leading to the formation of NCP in 1999.

The badly handled Bombey communal riots of 1993 were a total disaster for INC in Maharashtra  and Sharad Pawar was called back to be INC CM again to lead INC into battle in 1995.  But due to bitterness over being skipped over in 1991 to be PM there were bitter battles within INC between pro-Sharad Pawar factions and anti-Sharad Pawar factions.  As a result SHS-BJP won the 1995 assembly elections on the back of massive INC rebellions


1995 Maharashtra assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+         284               81              31.22%

INC rebel                       17                7.21%
proto-NCP                      18                4.28% (INC rebels who later became NCP in 1999)

MVC             3                 1                0.12% (INC splinter)

JD+          186               11                6.17% (SAP was part of JD+)

PWPI          42                 6                2.05% (tactical alliance with JD+)

SP+           25                 3                1.05% (tactical alliance with JD+)

CPM           18                 3                1.00% (tactical alliance with JD+)

CPI            17                 0                0.32%

BBM+      130                 0                3.10%

SHS+       287             138              29.45% (BJP was part of SHS+)

SHS rebel                       0                0.80%
BJP rebel                        7                1.59%

BSP         145                 0                1.49%

NVAS          2                  1                0.21%

STBP          6                  2                0.70%

The result was split verdict where the vote were very splintered.  In the end pro-Sharad Pawar INC rebels backed SHS-BJP to form a government under SHS CM Manohar Joshi.   The SHS tradition is that the leader (in this case SHS leader and founder Bal Thackeray) does not enter electoral politics so when SHS does come to power a party loyalist Manohar Joshi was put forward as CM.  Manohar Joshi is the first Maharashtra CM that does not have an INC background.

With a SHS CM installed the 1996 LS elections saw the defeat of INC and in Maharashtra with the SHS government in its honey period BJP-SHS swept the polls with INC still reeling from defeat in 1995 and the internal battles over pro- and ant- Sharad Pawar factions.


1996 Maharashtra LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           48                15               34.78%

INC rebel                       0                  2.15%

JD+          45                 0                14.80% (RPI SP PWPI BBM CPM CPI were part of JD+)

JD(S)        17                 0                  0.80%

BJP+        48                33                40.58% (SHS was part of BJP+)

Despite the BJP-SHS victory in Maharashtra and JD+ stuck in a poor third, nationally 1996 LS elections led to a minority JD government with outside support of INC to keep BJP out.

[jaichind]

The JD minority government of 1996 fell by 1998 as INC pulled support leading to the 1998 LS elections.  Just like 1991 it seem the BJP was going to win in a landslide until Sonia Gandhi entered politics to campaign for INC.  While the BJP won overall a INC meltdown was avoided.   In Maharashtra , Sharad Pawar, seeing that the chaos at the national level could mean he could have another shot at being PM, reconciled with the anti-Sharad Pawar INC factions and by roping in parties like SP and RPI from the JD+ bloc and taking advantage of the Sonia Gandhi factor defeated the BJP-SHS bloc by eating into the JD+ bloc vote.


1998 Maharashtra LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+         48                37               50.40% (RPI and SP were part of INC+)

JD+           29                 1                  3.42% (PWPI CPM CPI were part of JD+)

BJP+         48                10               43.23% (SHS was part of BJP+)

The BJP government formed after the 1998 fell in 1999 after AIADMK pulled support.  JD split into an pro-NDA JD(U) and anti-NDA JD(S) with the Maharashtra wing of JD going with JD(S).  Sonia Gandhi made a bid to form government that failed leading to the 1999 LS elections.   Sonia Gandhi made a bid to become INC President which was a clear signal to  Sharad Pawar that Sonia Gandhi has plans to become PM herself which means that his chances of INC PM in the future was nil.  As a result  Sharad Pawar bolted from INC and formed NCP.  The 1999 LS elections were held at the same time as the 1999 Maharashtra assembly elections.   The SHS-BJP government was clearly running into anti-incumbency so SHS swapped in a new SHS CM Narayan Rane.  But that was to no avail.  BJP-SHS won the LS election in Maharashtra  due to the INC-NCP split but lost its majority in the assembly election due to high level of anti-incumbency against the SHS-BJP state government.


1999 Maharashtra LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+          48                11               33.25% (BBM RPI were part of INC+)

NCP+         46                  9               25.11% (JD(S) PWPI SP RPI(A) were part of NCP+)

BJP+          48                28               38.03% (SHS was part of BJP+)


1999 Maharashtra assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+         263               78              28.43% (RPI was part of INC+)

INC rebel                         5                1.88%

BBM+         35                 3                1.90% (tactical alliance with INC+)

NCP+        254               62              24.55% (SP STBP NVPP SJP were part of NCP+)

NCP rebel                        0                0.66%

JD(S)+       26                 2                1.56% (tactical alliance with NCP+)

PWPI          22                 5                1.49% (tactical alliance with NCP+)

SHS+       287              129              33.17% (BJP was part of SHS+)

BJP rebel                         1                0.49%

CPM           23                 2                 0.64%

BSP            83                 0                0.39%

GGP           16                  1                0.20%



Despite the animosity that  Sharad Pawar had for Sonia Gandhi in the end INC and NCP formed a post-election alliance to secure a INC CM ousting the SHS-BJP government and with it SHS CM Narayan Rane was out.  It is also clear that there is a bloc of around 3%-4% of the vote that are anti-INC and voted NCP+ in the assembly elections (most likely to vote against the incumbent SHS-BJP government)  but BJP+ in LS elections.  This bloc of votes should converge to SHS-BJP on the medium run given the post-election INC-NCP alliance.

[jaichind]

The NDA government formed after the 1999 LS election under Vajpayee was fairly popular so the BJP went for early elections by a few months in 2004.  The NDA was surprising defeated.  In Maharashtra there were some anti-incumbency setting in for the INC-NCP state government so that even with INC-NCP alliance they were fought to a draw by BJP-SHS.


2004 Maharashtra LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+         48                23               44.85% (NCP RPI(A) JRP JD(S) RPI were part of INC+)

INC rebel                        0                 0.41%
 
BBM          16                  0                1.25%

PWPI          3                  0                 0.93%

SP            14                  0                 0.79%

CPM           3                  0                 0.72%

BJP+        48                25               42.72% (SHS was part of BJP+)

SHS rebel                      0                 0.55%

BSP         46                  0                 3.05%


The momentum of the surprising UPA victory at the national level propelled INC-NCP to a narrow victory in the  2004 Maharashtra assembly election despite significant INC and NCP rebellion.  Part of the reason for INC-NCP victory was that they brought in Sushilkumar Shinde as the INC CM with a Dalit background which was able to help INC hold on to its Dalit vote base.  What also helped INC-NCP was the growing tension within SHS between its last CM Narayan Rane and SHS leader Bal Thackeray who seems determined to promote his son Uddhav Thackeray as the next leader of SHS.


2004 Maharashtra assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+         286              142             40.67% (NCP was part of INC+)

INC rebel                         6                3.02%
NCP rebel                        6                2.07%

RPI(A)        20                 1                0.49%

PWPI          43                 2                1.31%

BBM           83                 1                1.23%

SP              95                0                 1.13%

JD(S)        34                  0                0.58%

CPM           16                 3                0.62%

SHS+       287             118              34.99% (BJP STBP NVAS were part of SHS+)

SHS rebel                       3                1.31%
BJP rebel                        1                0.95%

ABHS        20                  1                0.17%

BSP         272                 0                4.00%

JSS+        21                  4                1.04%



After the INC-NCP victory Vilasrao Deshmukh who was the INC CM after the 1999 assembly elections was brought back as INC CM.

[jaichind]

After the re-election of the INC-NCP state government in Maharashtra, the main issue in Maharashtra politics became the succession struggle in SHS given SHS founder and leader Bal Thackeray's age.  Bal Thackeray settled on Uddhav Thackeray as his successor leading to former SHS CM Narayan Rane leaving with his faction to join INC and Bal Thackeray's nephew Raj Thackeray to split from SHS and form the even more radically Maratha nativist and anti-Northern Indian NMS.  As a result in the 2009 LS elections in  Maharashtra a positive mood in urban areas for INC as well as NMS splitting the SHS vote led to a victory for INC-NCP which was mirrored in an UPA victory nationwide despite clear anti-incumbency at the state level against the INC-NCP state government.  


2009 Maharashtra LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+         48                25               40.18% (NCP RPI(A) RPI were part of INC+)

INC rebel                        0                 1.44%
NCP rebel                       1                  1.16%

BBM          39                  0                 1.33%

SP            10                  0                  1.00%

CPM           2                   0                 0.53%

BJP+         48                20               36.09% (SHS was part of BJP+)

SHS rebel                       0                  0.40%

NMS          11                  0                 4.07%

SWP            1                  1                 1.30%

BVA             1                  1                 0.60%

BSP           47                  0                 4.83%

RSPS         29                  0                 0.55%

STBP           4                  0                 0.51%



The 2009 Maharashtra assembly election help a few months after the LS election was a repeat election with NMS splitting the SHS vote and new INC CM Ashok Chavan able to consolidate the INC-NCP base to a somewhat larger victory in 2009 than the 2004 assembly election despite the usual INC and NCP rebellions.


2009 Maharashtra assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+         285              144             37.53% (NCP was part of INC+)

INC rebel                         4                1.68%
NCP rebel                       11                3.85%

BVA              4                 2                0.46% (tactical alliance with INC+)

PWPI           17                4                 1.11%

RPI(A)         79                0                 0.85%

BBM+        104                2                 0.92%

SHS+         285              91              31.06% (BJP was part of SHS+)

SHS rebel                        3                 0.75%
BJP rebel                         4                 1.90%

NMS+         145             13                 5.84%

SWP+          15                1                 0.83%

BSP            281               0                 2.35%

JSS+           38                2                 1.32%

SP+             32                4                 0.78%

CPM            20                1                  0.60%

RSPS           26                1                  0.41%

LKSGM          2                 1                 0.13%

INC-blue; NCP-purple; BJP-orange; SHS-yellow
 

The anti-INC-NCP vote was splintered allowing the INC-NCP to return to power for the third term in a row.  

[jaichind]

The 2014 LS election took place being dominated by the Modi wave which consolidated OBC and Upper caste Hindus behind BJP.  Like Northern India UPA got swept by NDA.  The Modi wave also ate into the NMS base to swing back to BJP-SHS.  Modi also roped in local parties like RPI(A) RSPS and SWP into the BJP-SHS alliance which added to the NDA landslide.


2014 Maharashtra LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+         48                 6               35.01% (NCP BVA were part of INC+)

PWPI           3                 0                 1.03%

BBM          23                 0                 0.75%

CPM            4                 0                 0.38%

BJP+         48                42              51.75% (SHS SWP RSPS RPI(A) were part of BJP+)

NMS          10                 0                1.47%

BSP           48                 0                2.63%

AAP           48                 0                2.26%



After the BJP-SHS landslide which was mostly due to Modi, the BJP demanded to be made the senior partner of the SHS-BJP alliance at the state level or at least equal partners.  Fearing that doing this would allow the BJP to eat into its base SHS refused to allow this and at the last minute BJP and SHS split up and decided to contest separately.  NCP which blamed INC for the 2014 LS election defeat also broke off its alliance with INC seeing a chance to eat into the INC base.  Large number of local INC and NCP barons which otherwise might have run as INC and NCP rebels this time joined BJP or SHS to run. The result was a 4 way battle which BJP won a plurality but not a majority.


2014 Maharashtra assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           287               42             17.95%

INC rebel                         1               0.33%

NCP+        282               42             17.48%

NCP rebel                        0               0.41%

BVA            36                3                0.62% (tactical alliance with NCP+)

PWPI          51                3                1.01%

AIMIM        24                 2               0.93%

BBM           70                 1               0.89%

BJP+        273              124             28.85% (RSPS and RPI(A) were part of BJP+)

BJP rebel                         3               0.92%

SWP           11                 0               0.66% (tactical alliance with BJP+)
 
JSS              8                 0               0.29% (tactical alliance with BJP+)

SHS+       285               63             19.52% (ABHS was part of SHS+)

SHS rebel                       1               0.36%

NMS         219                1               3.15%

CPM           20                1               0.39%

BSP          280                0               2.25%

INC-blue; NCP-purple; BJP-orange; SHS-yellow


BJP emerged as the largest party and after some moves to try to get NCP to support a BJP government SHS bucked down and accepted junior partner status and support a BJP MLA Devendra Fadnavis as a CM.  But for the SHS this seems to be a temporary compromise to wait it out until it can reassert itself as the senior partner in Maharashtra of the BJP-SHS alliance.

[jaichind]

After the 2014 Maharashtra assembly elections SHS continued to act as a frenemy of the BJP both in Maharashtra and at the federal level where SHS is on paper in the ruling bloc but continue to attack the BJP led government at both levels.  For a while it seems almost certain that SHS will contest by itself in the 2019 LS election just to teach the BJP a lesson and force it to accept SHS as the senior partner in the 2019 Maharashtra assembly elections.  

In the end the Modi-Shah combine worked out a deal with SHS for the BJP to be the senior partner at the federal level for the 2019 LS elections but split seats evenly for the 2019  Maharashtra assembly elections.  SHS can see the Modi wave building in Maharashtra for the 2019 LS election and felt that there might be a risk that BJP will break SHS if SHS were to run separately as well as the risk of handing the election to the renewed INC-NCP alliance.   Narayan Rane of INC also left INC and formed MSP which became a BJP ally but then tried to form an alliance with NCP after SHS objected.  NCP did not accept MSP due to INC objections leaving MSP without any ally.  NMS actually did not run any candidates and choose to de facto back INC-NCP in an attempt to eventually eat into the anti-Modi vote since Modi as mostly ate up the core NMS vote.   In the end the BJP-SHS repeated the 2014 LS landslide partly because of the Dalit-Muslim VBA-AIMIM alliance cut into the INC Dalit-Muslim base.  INC-NCP benefited from getting SWP to defect to INC-NCP and also got PWPI to stand down to back INC-NCP but the Modi wave was just too strong to prevent a repeat of 2014.


2019 Maharashtra LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+         48                 6               35.47% (NCP SWP BVA YSP were part of INC+)

VBA+         47                 1                7.72% (AIMIM was part of VBA+)

BJP+         48                41               51.35% (SHS was part of BJP+)

SHS rebel                       0                 0.60%
BJP rebel                        0                 0.25%

MSP           2                  0                 0.53%

BSP +      47                  0                 0.89% (SP was part of BSP+)

BJP-Light Orange;SHS-Dark Orange; INC-Light Blue; NCP-Dark Blue


The election led to polarization between BJP-SHS, INC-NCP and VBA-AIMIM and was a landslide victory for NDA just like the rest of Northern and Western India.

In the aftermath of 2019 LS elections large number of INC and especially NCP leaders started to defect en masse to BJP and in some cases SHS seeing almost no chance of INC-NCP to defeat BJP-SHS in the 2019  Maharashtra assembly elections a few month later.  The main problem here for BJP is that there is no way the BJP can accommodate all these INC and NCP defectors AND split seats evenly with SHS as per agreement before the 2019 LS elections.  Something will have to give.

[jaichind]

https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/story/bjp-offered-shiv-sena-seats-maharashtra-assembly-polls-1598549-2019-09-12

In Maharashtra the BJP have offered SHS 106 seats which is a far cry from the 50/50 seat division that was agreed to before the 2019 LS elections.  50/50 division should be something like 235-240 each for BJP and SHS with the rest going to small party allies.  SHS have rejected this offer and demanded a 50/50 split.  With talks deadlocked

https://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-maharashtra-assembly-polls-uddhav-thackeray-asks-party-workers-to-be-ready-to-go-solo-if-bjp-sena-alliance-fails-2789969

It seems SHS leader Uddhav Thackeray have asked SHS to get ready to contest alone.  I suspect this is a bluff.  If SHS accepts 106 or something like 110 seats from BJP then the result will be something like

BJP-SHS  55%
INC-NCP  30%

With INC-NCP getting to perhaps 38% of they can rope VBA-AIMIM into its alliance.

If it is 3 way battle I suspect it would be

BJP         40%
INC-NCP  28%
SHS        20%

With INC-NCP perhaps at 33% if they can rope in VBA-AIMIM into its alliance.  The idea here is if BJP and SHS ran separately both, but specially BJP, could continue to gather INC and NCP defectors and eat into their base.  The result would be a BJP plurality and possible majority.  Either way after that BJP will most likely break SHS which will not have a large number of MLAs to form a majority and SHS might become a much weaker force. 

There are factions within SHS that are advising on taking the BJP deal and wait out Modi and come back 5 years from now when hopefully Modi have retired or have become a less popular to recapture ground from BJP.  But ground once lost would be hard to regain.  SHS is in a tough spot.   

[jaichind]

22 Maharashtra MLAs have defected since the 2014 elections.  17 of them are from INC and NCP.  1 each from BJP and SHS with both defecting to INC.


It seems just as many opposition MLA went to SHS as BJP which does not fit the narrative.  But it is a fact that a lot more non-MLA local political barons (more NCP than INC) are going over to BJP.  Since there are a bit more than 100 opposition MLAs that means almost 20% of opposition MLAs elected in 2014 have since defected to BJP or SHS.  If these types of defections were to hit a cadre party like BJP or BSP the impact would be minor.  But for INC and especially NCP  in Maharashtra where the party is based on a confederation of local power brokers this is deadly.  NCP is especially vulnerable to this given that NCP is almost completely made up of rural local power barons while INC still have a diminishing cadre force and somewhat of a Dalit and Muslim base.

Speaking of Dalits and Muslims it seems that the VBA-AIMIM alliance has broken up and mostly both parties will run separately.  With INC-NCP finalizing their seat sharing agreement it seems an alliance of INC-NCP with VBA is unlikely.   INC-NCP will have to hope that the 2019 LS election landslide would provoke the anti-BJP Dalit vote that went to VBA swings over to INC-NCP.  In many ways the best case scenario for INC-NCP is for BJP-SHS to still have an alliance but in a way where a lot of INC or NCP rebels could not be accommodated leading some of them to come back and others to run separately as rebels.  While that still leads to BJP-SHS victory the INC-NCP base might remain somewhat intact to fight another day.