2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019

[jaichind]

Votes so far are mostly postal or military vote which will be pro-BJP but some will be the real vote

NDA    199(-31)
UPA     86(+35)
OTH     60(-4)

[jaichind]

Karnataka ECI vote share have some signification numbers seems very bad for INC-JD(S)

BJP           51.2%
INC-JD(S)  44.7%

[jaichind]

MP ECI vote share which is somewhat significant also look bad for INC

BJP   58.1%
INC   35.1% 

[jaichind]

Votes so far are mostly postal or military vote which will be pro-BJP but some will be the real vote

NDA    223(-38)
UPA     97(+43)
OTH     70(-4)

Karnataka and UP looking good for BJP.  TN looks good for UPA. Maharashtra surprising well for UPA so far. 

[jaichind]

Best guess so far would be the bookies got it right again: NDA around 300

[jaichind]

Everything looks like expected, no? BJP losing ground in the Hindi belt, but making up enough in Bengal, Orissa, Karnataka and wherever else.

Yep.  And in TN NDA getting smashed.

[jaichind]

Some real votes now

NDA    240(-44)
UPA    102(+48)
OTH     81(-4)

Stringer sources
NDA   243
UPA    117
OTH   102

[jaichind]

Rajasthan ECI vote share which is somewhat significant also look bad for INC

BJP   61.8%
INC   33.4%

[jaichind]

Karnataka is now NDA 23 UPA 5 with significant votes in. What a disaster for this disastrous INC-JD(S) alliance

[jaichind]

BJP winning the battle of UP.  Vote share is now

BJP              51.7%
SP-BSP-RLD  36.5%
INC               6.8%

[jaichind]

Some real votes now

NDA    313(-23)
UPA    101(+41)
OTH     91(-17)

Stringer sources
NDA    305
UPA    121
OTH    114

Going by my theory of a bump for the winning side which wins by a good margin we are look at NDA at 330-340 or so.

[jaichind]

BJP winning the battle of UP.  Vote share is now

BJP              51.7%
SP-BSP-RLD  36.5%
INC               6.8%

If that number holds how would that translate in seats

NDA at 60+ seats, like all those "crazy" exit polls which I rejected.

[jaichind]

Will Gandhi actually lose Amethi?

He will hold on in my view.

[jaichind]

Hindi zone state vote share are massive for BJP

HP
BJP  70.2%
INC  26.4%

Haryana
BJP   56.1%
INC   28.5%
INLD   2.3%

MP
BJP    58.0%
INC    34.6%

Rajasthan
BJP   59.6%
INC   34.4%

Gujarat (not Hindi but core BJP state)
BJP   60.9%
INC  33.1%

Chhattisgarh
BJP   48.8%
INC   41.5%

[jaichind]

Isn't Gandhi running somewhere in Kerala?

He is running in 2 seats.  He will clearly win his seat in Kerala.

[jaichind]

Some real votes now

NDA    315(-27)
UPA    114(+51)
OTH     90(-24)

[jaichind]

Maharashtra vote share

BJP-SHS   48.6%
INC-NCP   33.4%

Will also be a blowout victory for NDA here

[jaichind]

WB vote share

AITC   44.5%
BJP     41.0%
Left      7.0%
INC      3.9%

Anti-AITC vote have consolidated behind BJP

[jaichind]

Jharkhand vote share - shock victory for BJP

BJP-AJSU               54.2%
INC-JMM-JVM-RLD  34.5%

[jaichind]

UP vote share

BJP              50.5%
SP-BSP-RLD  38.3%
INC               6.1%

[jaichind]

BJP pulls ahead in WB in terms of seats BJP 22 AITC 17 INC 2.  Given the vote share so far I suspect AITC will pull back ahead in the end.  Still a massive surge for BJP

[jaichind]

Karnataka vote share

BJP           51.3% (and that is not even counting the pro-BJP independent)
INC-JD(S)  42.4%

[jaichind]

Maharashtra vote share

BJP-SHS   48.4%
INC-NCP   32.2%

[jaichind]

Who is next in line to take control of the INC if this holds?

I think Rahul will hold on in Kerala, that is not bjp friendly turf.

Correct.  I think if INC somehow gets above 80 seats Rahul Gandhi will stay on as leader.  Although 2024 will now look tough for INC to win.

[jaichind]

NDA    319(-28)
UPA    111(+46)
OTH    105(-18)