2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)

[jaichind]

2-member 京都(Kyoto) it is

LDP  48.5%
CDP  25.6%
JCP   23.7%
PNHK  2.9%

[jaichind]

In 6- member 東京(Tokyo) it is

LDP  20.0%
KP    14.7%
JCP   14.5%
CDP  13.8%
JRP   11.1%
LDP   11.0%
CDP    9.7%
DPP    2.0%
RS      1.6%

LDP->JRP tactical voting seems to be carrying them to victory

[jaichind]

NHK calls the second seat of 京都(Kyoto) for JCP.  Wow.  I guess I was wrong.   The CDP candidate is an LGBT activist which I figured might lose it some votes.  It seems that it did cost her and there were LDP and even KP tactical voting for JCP to defeat CDP despite the animosity of LDP and KP voters toward JCP.

[jaichind]

In 2- member 広島(Hiroshima) it is

OPPN  32.8%
LDP    28.7%
LDP    28.6%
JCP      6.4%
PNHK   1.7%

LDP achieved its goal of equalizing its vote share across its two candidates.  It seems OPPN vote share was just too big to overcome.

[jaichind]

NHK called 大分(Ōita) for OPPN.  An upset for sure.

[jaichind]

Despite lower turnout this election is turning out to be an "Meh" for LDP.  It seems pretty unlikely now that LDP-KP-JRP can retain the 2/3 majority.

[jaichind]

LDP slightly ahead in 岩手(Iwate) and slightly behind in 宮城(Miyagi) and 滋賀(Shiga)

[jaichind]

NHK calls the second seat of 京都(Kyoto) for JCP.  Wow.  I guess I was wrong.   The CDP candidate is an LGBT activist which I figured might lose it some votes.  It seems that it did cost her and there were LDP and even KP tactical voting for JCP to defeat CDP despite the animosity of LDP and KP voters toward JCP.

CDP is still narrowly ahead in the vote counted but what's left is mostly Kyoto proper where JCP is stronger. Notably, Sakyo-Ku (京都市左京区) still hasn't reported anything. There in the 2018 gubernatorial election, the JCP backed candidate won by 5 points while losing by 12 in the prefecture as a whole (and is one of the areas with the highest turnout)

Yeah.  I noticed that Japanese media is much more willing to call races for a candidate that is in theory behind in the count than USA media outfits.

[jaichind]

So far I am wrong in 広島(Hiroshima) (I called for LDP to win vs OPPN for second seat), 京都(Kyoto)  (I called for CDP to win vs JCP for second seat) and 大分(Ōita) (I called for LDP versus OPPN)

Most likely I will also be wrong about 東京(Tokyo)(I called CDP to win the 6th seat vs JRP)

[jaichind]

The count in  兵庫(Hyōgo) is now

JRP   24.0%
KP    22.8%
LDP  22.1%
CDP  20.3%
JCP    8.4%
PNHK 2.3%

It was suppose to be LDP ahead and KP JRP and CDP in a 3 way tie.  Now it seems LDP is the weakest of LDP KP JRP group.

[jaichind]

LDP back ahead in 宮城(Miyagi).  I think in the end it still goes CDP.

[jaichind]

Updated tables

NHK so far has it at

       District     PR    Total
LDP     35        18      53
KP        7          6      13
JRP      4           4       8
DPP      3          2       5
CDP      8         8      16
RS       0          1       1
SDP     0          0       0
JCP      3          3       6
OPPN   8                   8

8 more PR seats to allocate

Asahi has it at

       District     PR    Total
LDP     35        18      53
KP        7          6      13
JRP      4           4       8
DPP      3          2       5
CDP      8         8      16
RS       0          2       2
SDP     0          1       1
JCP      2          4       6
OPPN   7                   7

5 more PR seats to allocate

[jaichind]

In 6- member 東京(Tokyo) it is

LDP  21.3%
KP    14.8%
JCP   13.4%
CDP  13.1%
LDP  10.1%
JRP    9.6%
CDP   9.3%
DPP   2.7%
RS     2.4%
PNHK 1.4%
SDP   0.8%

Still close between JRP and CDP for 6th and last seat. 

[jaichind]

In 滋賀(Shiga) with 82% of the vote counted it is

OPPN 48.6%
LDP   47.3%
PNHK  4.1%

PNHK is capturing all the protest vote just like HRP did back in 2016 and most likely will cost LDP this seat.

[jaichind]

I looked at the count the various 1- member districts.  PNHK is getting between 2.5% to nearly 5% of the vote.  This is the "Against All" option.  I suspect this bunch tends to lean LDP so they, like HRP in 2016, most likely cost LDP a couple of seats.

[jaichind]

宮城(Miyagi) seems to be the only 1- member district left.  With 52% of the vote counted it is LDP 48.7 CDP 47.6 PNHK 3.7

[jaichind]

In  兵庫(Hyōgo) with 66% of the vote counted it is

JRP   24.6%
KP    23.1%
LDP  21.8%
CDP  20.5%
JCP    7.9%
PNHK 2.2%

Most likely CDP will not make it despite what the exit polls said. But this one was a wild ride.

[jaichind]

Outstanding vote in 宮城(Miyagi) leans Sendai City(仙台市).  If so I would say CDP has the edge over LDP even though right now LDP is ahead 48.7 to 47.6 in the count right now

[jaichind]

2- member 京都(Kyoto) which has been called for LDP and JCP is now with 86% of the vote counted
 
LDP    43.3%
JCP    25.9%
CDP   25.4%
PNHK  3.8%

So it seems country to what I guess there were some anti-CDP tactical voting by LDP JRP and KP voters in addition to some anti-JCP tactical voting as well.  The anti-LGBT vote is not large but made a difference on the margins.  Some of that vote it seems also went to PNHK.

[jaichind]

Kawai Anri will win the LDP seat in Hiroshima.

In 広島(Hiroshima) with 85% of the vote counted it is

OPPN  31.9%
LDP    28.9%
LDP    27.5%
JCP      6.9%
PNHK   2.4%

LDP came close to winning both seats.  There was not enough votes.

[jaichind]

In 6- member 東京(Tokyo) with 76% of the vote counted it is

LDP  20.7%
KP    14.6%
JCP   12.9%
CDP  12.6%
LDP    9.6%
JRP    9.4%
CDP   9.2%
RS     3.2%
DPP   3.1%
PNHK 1.8%
Right  1.2% (LDP and anti-Tax background)
SDP   1.0%

RS at 3.2% most likely is costing CDP the seat vs JRP.

[jaichind]

Do you know a page where I can see the PR vote breakdown by prefecture?

Also, Tokushima-Kochi seems a bit closer than I would expect given the opposition candidate had JCP background. Maybe it could have been competitive with, say, a CDP candidate?

None I know off in terms of PR breakdown by prefecture.

JCP is fairly strong and LDP fairly weakn in 高知(Kōchi).  If 高知(Kōchi) was being contested by itself it will be neck-to-neck like 大分(Ōita) only 大分(Ōita) it is more about SDP strength.   

[jaichind]

With 0.3% of the vote counted PR is

LDP   44.6%
KP     13.8%
JRP     4.6%
PNHK  1.3%
HRP    0.4%
DPP    8.3%
CDP  13.0%
Olive   0.2%
RS      3.0%
SDP    2.3%
LAB    0.1%
JCP    7.5%
EP     0.4% (used to be NPB now Euthanasia Party)

The early count favor LDP so LDP vote share will go down

[jaichind]

With 4.5% of the vote counted PR is

LDP   38.51%
KP     12.37%
JRP     8.25%
PNHK  1.48%
HRP    0.31%
DPP    7.91%
CDP  16.12%
Olive   0.23%
RS      3.32%
SDP    2.27%
LAB    0.12%
JCP    8.97%
EP     0.34% (used to be NPB now Euthanasia Party)

For LDP to be down to 38.51% so early in the count is not a positive sign for LDP.

[jaichind]

In 6- member 東京(Tokyo) with 85% of the vote counted it is

LDP  20.7%
KP    14.3%
JCP   12.8%
CDP  12.5%
LDP    9.5%
JRP    9.3%
CDP   9.0%
RS     3.4%
DPP   3.2%
PNHK 1.9%
Right  1.3% (LDP and anti-Tax background)
SDP   1.2%

Most likely CDP is not going to make it.  Very effective tactical voting by LDP voters and poor vote coordination by Center-Left voters.