2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)

[jaichind]

NHK exit poll for 京都(Kyoto) by party

Equal number of LDP PR voters voted for CDP and JCP



Looks like it will be close then between CDP and JCP for 2nd seat

[jaichind]

As of 7:30PM total turnout looks like

                        2016            2019
10am                7.92             5.65
11am              13.22             9.70
2pm                22.54           18.02
4pm                27.25           22.72
6pm                32.49           27.30
7:30pm           36.14           30.11
Early vote        15.05           16.01
Final turnout    54.69

Looks like final turnout will be around 50%

[jaichind]

鹿児島(Kagoshima) and 長崎(Nagasaki) not called yet.  LDP must be under-performing in both.   鹿児島(Kagoshima)  it must be because of the LDP rebel.  長崎(Nagasaki)  as pointed out before it seems OPPN is just doing very well.  LDP will win both but this seems like a scare for them.

[jaichind]

In some of the prefectures with some non trivial number of votes counted (like above 10K) the PNHK vote share is around 1%.  Most likely PNHK PR vote will be around that level.

[jaichind]

does Fukushima prefecture like the LDP more than others in Tohoku?

No, if anything LDP's brand is quite poor here for all sorts of reasons including nuclear power.  The LDP candidate broke with the national LDP and is anti-nuclear.  This I think is part of the reason why LDP won here.  Back in 2016 the LDP candidate tried to doge the nuclear issue and was defeated

[jaichind]

So now the Abe battle to have LDP-KP-JRP to retain 2/3 majority will come down the the Northern Japan 1- member districts of 岩手(Iwate) 宮城(Miyagi) 秋田(Akita) and 山形(Yamagata).  Lower turnout now gives a LDP a chance whereas the opposition grand alliance should win in all 4.

[jaichind]

ANN exit poll has

LDP   57
KP     14
JRP     9
PNHK  1
DPP    5
CDP  20
RS      2
SDP    1
JCP     7
OPPN  8



So one exit poll that has PNHK winning a seat.  I am skeptical

[jaichind]

NHK called 秋田(Akita) for OPPN.  First 1- member district battleground to be called.

[jaichind]

Updated tables

NHK so far has it at

       District     PR    Total
LDP     31        18      49
KP        6          6      12
JRP      3           4       7
DPP      3          2       5
CDP      8         8      16
RS       0          1       1
SDP     0          0       0
JCP      2          3       5
OPPN   3                   3

8 more PR seats to allocate

Asahi has it at

       District     PR    Total
LDP     33        18      51
KP        7          6      13
JRP      4           4       8
DPP      3          2       5
CDP      7         8      15
RS       0          2       2
SDP     0          1       1
JCP      2          4       6
OPPN   3                   3

5 more PR seats to allocate

[jaichind]

NHK called 長崎(Nagasaki) for LDP which I am sure is a relief to LDP

[jaichind]

LDP hold Tochigi

Yeah, that was a scare for LDP for a while too. Of course Ashai call that a while ago.  Still my understanding is the vote share gap is smaller than expected

[jaichind]

Asahi called 三重(Mie) for LDP a while ago.  Again there the fundamentals are against LDP but the local Center-Left forces and JCP does not get along.  They made it work in 2016 to defeat LDP.  This time the local chemistry was not there. 

[jaichind]

NHK exit poll for 兵庫(Hyōgo) broken down by early vote and election day vote.  Early date vote is very KP heavy.  Election day vote is very JRP heavy.

[jaichind]

Morimoto is elected in Hiroshima

Asahi called this a while ago

Asahi calls  second seat of 広島(Hiroshima) for OPPN defeating LDP's gambit to win both seats.  This is the first seat I got wrong.  It is ironic as I only changed my prediction as the voting started because of low turnout.  I should have stuck to my guns.

[jaichind]

NHK called 新潟(Niigata) for OPPN.  Another 1- member battleground called.

[jaichind]

Updated tables

NHK so far has it at

       District     PR    Total
LDP     32        18      50
KP        6          6      12
JRP      3           4       7
DPP      3          2       5
CDP      8         8      16
RS       0          1       1
SDP     0          0       0
JCP      2          3       5
OPPN   5                   5

8 more PR seats to allocate

Asahi has it at

       District     PR    Total
LDP     33        18      51
KP        7          6      13
JRP      4           4       8
DPP      3          2       5
CDP      7         8      15
RS       0          2       2
SDP     0          1       1
JCP      2          4       6
OPPN   3                   3

5 more PR seats to allocate

[jaichind]

A lot of these 1- member districts are like VA in terms of being called. Pro-LDP rural votes comes in first so as soon as the Opposition candidate takes the lead it is called for Opposition.  In VA as soon as the Dems are ahead of GOP it is called since NOVA always comes in last.

[jaichind]

NHK exit polls for

千葉(Chiba)


埼玉(Saitama)


神奈川(Kanagawa)

[jaichind]

In 岩手(Iwate) it is not called yet but LDP is well ahead and should be called soon.  So the Ozawa fortress falls.  The LDP candidate which used to be a key Ozawa lieutenant is able to capture enough of the Opposition vote to win.    So this 1- member battleground will most likely go LDP.

[jaichind]

It is neck-to-neck in 大分(Ōita) which have fundamentals that favor the opposition but due to better candidate quality was expected to go LDP.  It seems closer than expected.

[jaichind]

NHK called 山形(Yamagata) for OPPN which is another 1- member battleground

[jaichind]

Updated tables

NHK so far has it at

       District     PR    Total
LDP     35        18      53
KP        6          6      12
JRP      4           4       7
DPP      3          2       5
CDP      8         8      16
RS       0          1       1
SDP     0          0       0
JCP      2          3       5
OPPN   6                   6

8 more PR seats to allocate

Asahi has it at

       District     PR    Total
LDP     35        18      53
KP        7          6      13
JRP      4           4       8
DPP      3          2       5
CDP      8         8      16
RS       0          2       2
SDP     0          1       1
JCP      2          4       6
OPPN   4                   4

5 more PR seats to allocate

[jaichind]

Look at the count in 神奈川(Kanagawa)  and 東京(Tokyo) it is clear that LDP -> JRP tactical voting was very effective.  There is no similar tactical voting between CDP and JCP PR voters in places like 大阪(Osaka)  and 兵庫(Hyōgo)

[jaichind]

OPPN look like they're back in the race in Iwate.

Wow ... I guess that is why I am not NHK and I should leaves the calls to them

[jaichind]

The count in  兵庫(Hyōgo) is now

LDP  23.2%
KP    22.4%
JRP   21.8%
CDP  20.9%
JCP    8.9%
PNHK 2.8%

4 way tie !!!  Again JCP PR tactical voting could ensured CDP victory which mostly did not take place.