2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)

[jaichind]

大阪(Osaka) 12th with 71% of the vote counted

JRP                41.9%
LDP                29.7%
ex-DPJ ex-HP  17.7% (tacitly backed by DPP and perhaps CDP)
JCP-SDP-LP     10.7%

[jaichind]

大阪(Osaka) 12th with 95% of the vote counted

JRP                39.2%
LDP                30.7%
ex-DPJ ex-HP  21.0% (tacitly backed by DPP and perhaps CDP)
JCP-SDP-LP       9.1%

[jaichind]

沖縄(Okinawa) 3rd all done (diff on 2017 result)

Joint Opposition candidate   56.5% (-1.4%)
LDP                                   43.5% (+3.2%)

[jaichind]

大阪(Osaka) 12th unofficially done (diff vs 2017)

JRP                38.5% (-2.1%)
LDP                30.0% (-15.0%)
ex-DPJ ex-HP  22.6% (NA) (tacitly backed by DPP and perhaps CDP)
JCP-SDP-LP       8.9% (-5.5%)

There was a large shift from LDP to JRP.  HP (now de facto DPP) backed JRP in 2017 so most of that support went to ex-DPJ ex-HP candidate while CDP backed JCP in 2017 where a lot of it went to the ex-DPJ ex-HP candidate.

We can also look at these results relative to 2014 when the ex-DPJ ex-HP candidate actually ran as the DPJ candidate.

JRP                38.5% (+14.3%)
LDP                30.0% (-10.0%)
ex-DPJ ex-HP  22.6% (-2.6%) (tacitly backed by DPP and perhaps CDP)
JCP-SDP-LP       8.9% (-1.7%)

So relative to 2014 which was peak JCP anyway there was a falloff in JCP support but also some shift of the old DPJ base over to JRP.  Other than these smaller shifts the LDP->JRP shift is dramatic and clear.

[jaichind]

My prediction for 大阪(Osaka) 12th

JRP                39
LDP                27
ex-DPJ ex-HP  25 (tacitly backed by DPP and perhaps CDP)
JCP-SDP-LP      9

was mostly on the mark for JRP and JCP.  I underestimated LDP by a couple of percentage points relative to the ex-DPJ ex-HP independent. 

[jaichind]

With defeat in 2 lower house by-elections there are noises within the LDP and KP to once again delay the planned sales tax increase.  Abe drew a line in the sand last year saying that there will be no delay unless there is a financial crisis like Lehman 2008 but there will be pressure from within the LDP to do so to avoid a possible recession in 2020 and also to pump up LDP-KP prospects in the upcoming Upper House elections.

[jaichind]

Sankei Shimbun magazine political analyst 松田馨(Matsuda Kaoru) came out with his Upper House and Lower House projections.  As usual they are pretty negative for LDP.  At this stage of the election cycle all projections will be negative for LDP to help sell magazines (since everyone expects LDP to do well a negative projection adds to the shock value and make people want to buy the magazine)

Anyway for Upper House he has it at
       District     PR        Total
LDP     35        17         52 (-14)
KP        6          7         13 (+2)
HP        1          0          1  (-2)
JRP       3          5          8 (+2)
DPP      4          3          7  (-1)
CDP    18        12         30(+22)
LP         0         0           0 (-1)
SDP      0          1          1 (--)
JCP      2          5           7 (-1)
OPPN   5          0           5        (CDP-DPP-SDP-LP-JCP joint opposition candidates)




Which comes out to

LDP+           65
Center-Left   43
Third Pole      9
JCP               7

This reflects a clear surge of JRP since their Osaka based victories in prefecture and by-elections.  Most CW projections has LDP+ at around 72 so clearly this projection is pretty negative on LDP.

For Lower House he has it at

           District     PR      Total
LDP       185         62      247  (-36)
KP            4!!       22        26  (-3)
HP            0           0          0  (-2)
JRP          14        13         27 (+15)
DPP         15         15        30 (-7)
CDP         64        53       117 (+62)
LP             1          0          1 (-1)
SDP          1          1          2 (--)
JCP           1         11        12(--)
OPPN        7                      7

Main shocks are that KP would only 4 district seats.  KP usually contest 9 seats and wins all 9.  They unexpectedly lost 1 out of 9 in 2017.  I guess this means that JRP will go all out to take on KP and most likely defeat KP in a bunch of seats in  大阪(Osaka).  

I am surprised he has JCP winning 1 district seat.  I suspect with JRP openly joining forces with LDP-KP in  沖縄(Okinawa) that in 沖縄(Okinawa) 1st district LDP-KP-JRP grand alliance should defeat JCP.  

Of course JRP winning 14 district seats is a real surge of JRP in  大阪(Osaka).  Even at the peak of JRP fortunes in 2012 JRP only won 12 seats in  大阪(Osaka).   I guess this time they will also target KP seats which will also yield a few extra victories.

I genially do not buy the district seats of DPP 15 and CDP 64.  If you go seat by seat it is clear that a lot of viable opposition candidates are members of DPP.  I am pretty sure even if the Opposition does at well as he suggests at the district level it will be something like DPP 30 CDP 50 unless there are more DPP->CDP defections between now and the election.

 

[jaichind]

LP formally merges into DPP.  The only real impact would be on the PR section of the Upper House election.  LP has around at 1.5%-2% vote share and in a election where the de facto threshold is around 1.7% and the seat allocation is by d'hondt method this would mean that whereas the DPP was looking at 2-3 seats on the PR section in the Upper House election now they are more likely to be looking at 3-4 seats assuming the LP vote transfer over.  I suspect some of the LP PR vote will go to CDP and SDP.

[jaichind]

Even as a Center-Left party (LP) merge into DPP another one appears.  It is 令和新選組 or Reiwa Shinsengumi which I guess I will call RS for now until, if ever, they come up with an official English name.  Reiwa or 令和 is the name of the new Imperial Era and Shinsengumi is the name of a military task for in the Tokugawa shogunate period.  One way to translate Shinsengumi  would be "elite task force." 

Anyway this party is formed by 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) who was elected in 2013 Upper House election in the Tokyo district as an anti-nuclear extreme Left candidate.  He joined PLP which became LP in 2014 as joint leaders of a the united party with Ozawa.  Now that Ozawa has merged LP into DPP  山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) does not want to join the Centrist DPP and prefers to form his own party of the Left.  I think RS might pull in 0.5% to 1.0% of the PR vote if he chooses to contest in the PR race but it seems RS is mostly about 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) reelection in the Tokyo district which so far he seems favored to finish in the top 6 and win re-election.

[jaichind]

What is "JRP"? Is it a Resurrection of the old Japan Restoration Party?

Old Japan Restoration Party. 

JRP was formed in 2012.  In 2014 it merged with YP splinter UP to form JIP with the anti-merger group forming FPG.  In 2015 the anti-DPJ and pro-Hashimoto group which is most of the old Osaka part of JRP split from JIP to form ORA.  JIP then merged with DPJ to form DP in 2016.  In 2016 ORA renamed itself back to JRP.  FPG in the meantime renamed itself PJK and in 2018 merged with LDP.

[jaichind]

Are the JRP the national affiliate of One Osaka then?

Pretty much.  In fact JRP is mostly an 大阪(Osaka) party and somewhat a 近畿(Kinki) regional party.  If you look at the 2017 lower house PR vote share you get for JRP

大阪(Osaka):                26.86%
Non-Osaka 近畿(Kinki): 12.28%
Rest of Japan:               3.89%

After the most recent JRP surge in 大阪(Osaka) governor and prefecture elections I think JRP support has risen in 大阪(Osaka) ans perhaps rest of 近畿(Kinki) but most likely nowhere else.

The upcoming Upper House race in 大阪(Osaka) will be interesting.  It is a 4- member district.  You would have expected LDP and KP to win one each along with one for JRP.  The last seat was going to be a 3 way battle between JRP CDP and JCP with it a tossup between JRP and CDP.   Given the most recent JRP surge one would expect that JRP wins two seats with now LDP CDP and JCP fighting for the last seat.  Depending on how much LDP support in 大阪(Osaka) has gone over to JRP the LDP could end up losing its seat in 大阪(Osaka) which would be a shock.

[jaichind]

Ashai poll on PR vote for Upper Hose elections in July (diff from April poll)

LDP    43 (+4)
KP        5(--)
JRP       6(-1)
HP         1(+1)
DPP       3(+1)
CDP    17(+4)
SDP      2(+1)
JCP       5(-1)

The two main parties (LDP and CDP) make gains as the election gets closer

[jaichind]

The media is coming around to define the 2019 Upper House election as an battle by the pro-Constitutional revision bloc (LDP KP JRP HP and various Third Pole forces) to retain their 2/3 majority

[jaichind]

As of now, unlike 2016, the opposition parties (CDP DPP SDP) are having a hard time working with the JCP to work out alliances in various 1- member districts.   In several battleground 1- member districts the JCP still have candidates in the mix that have not been convinced to withdraw.  They are:

青森(Aomori) - I think the LDP will win one way or another
宮城(Miyagi) - Quite winnable CDP is the JCP withdraws
秋田(Akita) - I think the LDP will win one way or another
山形(Yamagata) - CDP-DPP-SDP jointly backed independent could win if JCP withdraws
福島(Fukushima)  - CDP-DPP-SDP jointly backed independent could win if JCP withdraws 
栃木(Tochigi)  - I think the LDP will win one way or another
山梨(Yamanashi) - LDP have edge and for sure not winnable for CDP if JCP does not withdraw
長野(Nagano) - DPP has the upper hand over LDP even if JCP stays in the mix but clearly DPP prefer JCP to withdraw
三重(Mie)  - CDP-DPP-SDP jointly backed independent could win if JCP withdraws
滋賀(Shiga) - LDP have edge and for sure not winnable for CDP-DPP-SDP backed independent if JCP does not withdraw
 
On the other hand in battlegrounds like 岩手(Iwate), 新潟(Niigata), 愛媛(Ehime), 大分(Ōita), 沖縄(Okinawa) JCP have withdrawn and have given the non-JCP opposition there a chance to defeat LDP.

[jaichind]

Abe Cabinet Approval rating curve stays high


LDP support (pink) stays steady at a high rate


CDP support (blue) continues to fall while JPR support (Green) continues to rise

[jaichind]

Significant development.   JCP and the non-JCP Center-Left oppositio pretty much stitched up alliances in almost all 1- member districts.  I found it hard to believe this was possible since the anti-JCP Rengo union federation has a lot of sway over DPP and I though would come up with conditions that are impossible for JCP to meet.  But it seems they came up with a grand alliance to take on LDP.

So the joint opposition candidates for each 1- member seat will be

青森(Aomori) - CDP - lean LDP
岩手(Iwate) - Opposition backed independent with LP background - Lean Opposition
宮城(Miyagi) - CDP - tossup/lean LDP
秋田(Akita) - pro-CDP ndependent  - lean LDP
山形(Yamagata) - pro-DPP independent - tossup/Lean opposition
福島(Fukushima) - pro-DPP independent - tossup/Lean opposition
栃木(Tochigi) - CDP - Solid LDP
群馬(Gunma) - CDP - Lean LDP (only because it is open seat or else it would be Solid LDP)
山梨(Yamanashi) - CDP - tossup/lean LDP
新潟(Niigata) - pro-CDP independent - tossup/lean opposition
富山(Toyama) - talks in progress with JCP SDP and DPP all wanting to run  - Solid LDP  either way
石川(Ishikawa) - DPP - Solid LDP
福井(Fukui) - JCP - Solid LDP
長野(Nagano) - DPP - Solid Opposition
岐阜(Gifu) - CDP - Lean LDP
三重(Mie) - pro-CDP local opposition party running as independent - lean Opposition  
滋賀(Shiga) - pro-DPP ex-governor running as independent - tossup/lean LDP
奈良(Nara) - pro-DPP/Rengo independent -  solid LDP
和歌山(Wakayama) - pro-DPP independent - solid LDP
鳥取(Tottori)/島根(Shimane) - JCP - Solid LDP
岡山(Okayama) - CDP - Solid LDP
山口(Yamaguchi) - DPP - Solid LDP
徳島(Tokushima)/高知(Kōchi) - JCP - Solid LDP
香川(Kagawa) - pro-DPP independent -Solid LDP
愛媛(Ehime) - ex-DPJ MP running as independent - tossup/lean LDP
佐賀(Saga) - JCP - Solid LDP
長崎(Nagasaki) - DPP - Solid LDP
熊本(Kumamoto) - pro-DPP/Rengo independent - Solid LDP
大分(Ōita) - pro-DPP independent  - tossup/lean LDP
宮崎(Miyazaki) - no opposition candidate yet - Solid LDP one way or another
鹿児島(Kagoshima) - talks in progress with JCP SDP and DPP all wanting to run - LDP rebel might jump in but at worst lean LDP and most likely solid LDP
沖縄(Okinawa) - OSMP running as independent - Solid Opposition

So other than  富山(Toyama), 宮崎(Miyazaki) and 鹿児島(Kagoshima) where the LDP is going to win anyway the Center-Left Opposition and JCP came up with pre-election adjustments everywhere else in 1- member districts.  This election in July will be somewhat competitive now.  



PR candidate list

[jaichind]

For the multi member districts the LDP is doing a pretty good job at "cleaning up" the battle field for the Center-Right bloc relative to the Center-Left bloc.

1) In 愛知(Aichi) LDP got an ex-YP incumbent that was going to run and split the Right vote to stand down promising her that she would be nominated by the LDP in the next Lower House election
2) In 神奈川(Kanagawa) LDP is working with the ex-YP but now HP incumbent to figure out a way for him (who is also the head of the rump HP) to step aside to split the Right vote.
3) In 東京(Tokyo) it seems to be chaos on the Left.  In the 6 seats it is "normal" for the Center-Right bloc to win 3 seats and Center-Left bloc to win 3.  The LDP and KP will have 3 candidates (2 LDP 1 KP) but on the Left there are already 5 candidates (2 CDP 1 JCP 1 SDP 1 RS) plus DPP will most likely nominate another candidate.  If the LDP sees that these up to 6 Center-Left candidates will split the Center-Left vote then the LDP or JRP might nominate a candidate to try to win a 4th seat.
4) In 大阪(Osaka) the battle is for the Right bloc to sweep all 4.  In 2016 the DP and JCP split what is left of the Center-Left vote for LDP KP and 2 JRP candidate to win the 4 seats up for grabs.  The CDP surge means that this time CDP should win a seat at the expense of one of the JRP candidates.  But with the recent JRP surge that might not be true.  Worse, in addition to JCP is running, of course, DPP also nominated a candidate so the Center-Left might be shut out again in 2019 just like 2016.
5) In 2- member 広島(Hiroshima) LDP is feeling so strong that they nominated 2 candidates to try to win both with the Center-Left vote split between the DPP and JCP.  At least CDP dropped out to give the DPP candidate a chance.  Most likely DPP will pull this one out.
6) In 2 member districts of 京都(Kyoto)) 茨城(Ibaraki) and 静岡(Shizuoka) the CDP and DPP failed to work out deals and will be running separately and giving the JCP a chance to win the second seat (first seat being won by LDP of course.)  I guess since CDP DPP and JCP all now feel that the LDP is the main enemy this is not see as a big deal and is viewed as a friendly fight for all 3 parties to try to win the second seat.

[jaichind]

What is key about the Center-Left opposition alliance for 1- member districts is that CDP-DPP-SDP already conceded 4 districts to JCP (福井(Fukui), 鳥取(Tottori)/島根(Shimane), 徳島(Tokushima)/高知(Kōchi), 佐賀(Saga)) with the prospect of a couple more (富山(Toyama) or 宮崎(Miyazaki) or 鹿児島(Kagoshima although 鹿児島(Kagoshima) is unlikely as the LDP rebel makes this seat winnable for the Opposition and CDP-DPP-SDP will not blow it by giving it to JCP.)

Back in 2016 JCP was only assigned one seat (香川(Kagawa).)  This development bode fairly well for the next lower house election for Center-Left Opposition cooperation with JCP.  By giving a bunch of not winnable seat to JCP the Center-Left Opposition is showing that it is getting the killer instinct that the LDP always has to do whatever that has to be done to win.  This was always an easy choice since JCP knows that it does not chance of winning any 1-on-1 race with LDP so the JCP is willing to take a bunch of unwinnable seats.  JCP is toxic brand outside its core supporters also means that there is fairly low risk that the CDP-DPP base would migrate to JCP in those seats ceded to JCP.  It was always vanity and pride that got in the way of giving a bunch of winnable seats to JCP to get JCP support in critical swing districts against the LDP.  Besides, the JCP is not really winning to win.  JCP is more like an NGO than a political party that just wants publicity for its ideas versus actually winning political power.  If winning was the JCP's goal they would have changed their name decades ago.

[jaichind]

Just like 2016, LDP seems to be floating the idea that they might dissolve the lower house and hold double elections in July.  Most likely a ploy to force the opposition to hold back resources for the Upper House elections in case they are needed to support Lower House election candidates.

[jaichind]

So with Center-Left Opposition and JCP forming alliances in all the battleground 1- member districts the medium case for the 2019 July Upper House election would be for the Constitutional Revision bloc to lose its 2/3 majority and with it Abe's goals of Constitutional revision.   I think now we can get a real sense of what Abe's true priorities are.   If he does value Constitutional revision above else he should actually go ahead and call a Lower House election and have a double election as a referendum on Constitutional revision. If there is a pro-LDP wave from this issue this should be enough for the pro-Constitutional revision forces to win 2/3 in both houses.  If not then Abe's would lose seats in the Lower House and his leadership stature diminished.  The window is closing fast for Abe to do this.   

[jaichind]

Now that all Center-Left-JCP alliances in the 1- member districts are mostly firmed up I think I can go ahead with a projection.  Brackets in multi-member districts are the runner up

                                               Prediction
北海道Hokkaido         3              LDP CDP LDP (JCP)
青森   Aomori             1             LDP                                  
岩手   Iwate               1             OPPN (competitive)  
宮城   Miyagi               1            LDP  (competitive)    
秋田   Akita                1             LDP                                  
山形   Yamagata         1             OPPN (competitive)                      
福島   Fukushima       1             OPPN (competitive)                      
茨城   Ibaraki             2             LDP CDP (JCP)                          
栃木   Tochigi             1             LDP (competitive)                                
群馬   Gunma            1              LDP                                  
埼玉   Saitama           4             LDP KP CDP JCP (DPP)                    
千葉   Chiba               3             LDP CDP LDP (JCP)                    
神奈川Kanagawa       4               LDP KP CDP JCP (HP)            
山梨   Yamanashi       1             LDP      
東京   Tokyo              6             LDP CDP KP LDP JCP RS (JRP)    
新潟   Niigata             1            OPPN (competitive)            
富山   Toyama            1             LDP                                  
石川   Ishikawa           1             LDP                                  
福井   Fukui                1             LDP                                  
長野   Nagano             1             DPP                              
岐阜   Gifu                  1             LDP (competitive)                                
静岡   Shizuoka           2             LDP DPP  (JCP)                          
愛知   Aichi                 4             LDP KP CPP DDP (JCP)                
三重   Mie                   1             OPPN (competitive)                                
滋賀   Shiga                1             LDP  (competitive)  
京都   Kyoto                2             LDP CDP (JCP)    
大阪   Osaka               4             LDP JRP KP JRP (CDP)            
兵庫   Hyōgo               3             LDP KP CDP (JRP)
奈良   Nara                 1             LDP                                  
和歌山Wakayama       1              LDP                                  
鳥取 Tottori                
島根   Shimane           1             LDP                                
岡山   Okayama          1             LDP          
広島   Hiroshima         2             LDP DPP (LDP)
山口   Yamaguchi        1             LDP                                  
徳島   Tokushima  
高知   Kōchi                1             LDP                                  
香川   Kagawa            1             LDP                                  
愛媛   Ehime              1             LDP (competitive)                                  
福岡   Fukuoka           3             LDP KP CDP (JCP)                      
佐賀   Saga                1             LDP                                  
長崎   Nagasaki           1             LDP                                
熊本   Kumamoto        1             LDP                                
大分   Ōita                  1            OPPN (competitive)            
宮崎   Miyazaki           1             LDP                                  
鹿児島Kagoshima       1             LDP                                  
沖縄   Okinawa           1            OPPN    

Unknowns are

1) In 北海道(Hokkaido) CDP might nominate a second candidate which might change the dynamics of the race.
2) In 神奈川(Kanagawa), LDP might get the HP incumbent MP to drop out.  
3) HP might run on a joint PR slate with JRP
4) In 大阪(Osaka) the identity of the second JRP candidate is not know so the dynamics of the race might change.
5) In  茨城(Ibaraki), it is not clear of DPP will nominate a candidate.  Also the CDP incumbent there which recently defected from DPP was not nominated by CDP.  He might end up running as an independent or defect back to DPP and run.
6) In 鹿児島(Kagoshima) a LDP rebel is running while in the opposition camp DPP SDP and JCP all want to run.  It is possible SDP candidate becomes the joint opposition candidate or even the opposition back the LDP rebel which could change the dynamics of the race.
 
This along with PR section gives us

1 seat districts LDP-opposition 24-8
                                                            
                     PR              PR vote share          District              Total
LDP                18                    34.6%               40                     58
KP                   7                     13.4%                7                     14
HP                   0                      1.2%                0                       0
JRP                  4                      7.7%                2                       6
HRP                 0                      0.5%                0                       0
NPB                 0                      1.0%                0                       0
DPP                  3                      5.8%                4                      7
CDP                12                    24.5%              10                    22
SDP                 1                       1.9%               0                       1
RS                   0                      1.2%                1                       1
JCP                  5                      9.6%               3                        8
OPPN                                                              7                       7

Which would give us by bloc (124 total seats)

LDP-KP          72
Center-Left    38
Third Pole       6
JCP                8

The 2016 class is now (121 total seats)

LDP-KP          71
Center-Left    37
Third Pole        7
JCP                 6

Which combines to gives us after the 2019 elections

LDP-KP        143
Center-Left    75
Third Pole      13
JCP               14

The Center-Left + JCP would form 36.33% of the 245 member chamber which would be able to block a Constitutional revision.  

It would take a LDP wave for the Center-Left + JCP bloc to lose 8 seats off my current projection for the Center-Left Bloc + JCP to lose a blocking 1/3 majority.  In practice the margin of error is a bit lower then that.   I am sure if the Center-Left + JCP is only a couple of seats above 1/3 LDP/Abe could be able to get a couple of defectors from the Center-Left camp to back Constitutional revision.

[jaichind]

In 富山(Toyama) and 佐賀(Saga) the Center-Left Opposition and JCP came to an agreement on a common candidate with both going to the DPP.  Both are going to be won by LDP one way or another.
 That just leaves  宮崎(Miyazaki) where the Grand Alliance will have to find a candidate and 鹿児島(Kagoshima) where right now DPP SDP and JCP all have a candidate plus a LDP rebel.  The Grand Alliance have to decided on going with the SDP candidate (most likely) or even backing the LDP rebel in this LDP stronghold.

In many ways this current configuration of Opposition formation is the best I have seen so far.  First they arranged for LP to merge into DPP so the LP PR vote are not wasted.  The Center-Left Opposition split into an idealist Center-Left Opposition (CDP) and pragmatic Centrist Opposition (DPP) so both types of Opposition voters have something to vote for on the PR slate and have a reason to come out.  Also CDP DPP SDP and JCP from a grand alliance in 1- member seats and run candidates from the party that is most likely to appeal to the local electorate.  As mentioned before this alliance is smart enough to give JCP 3 1- member seats that cannot be won anyway so JCP gets publicly which is what it wants out of this.  Even in 2- member district 広島(Hiroshima) where LDP choose to nominate 2 candidates to try to take advantage of the fact that both CDP and DPP have a candidates each the CDP candidate dropped out and the DPP candidate is running as an independent with CDP and DPP support to counter the LDP plans.  The only Opposition coordination failure is in 大阪(Osaka) where there is a real chance that LDP-KP and JRP will win 2 seats each locking out of the Center-Left Opposition and JCP given the JRP surge recently yet CDP DPP and JCP all insist on running a candidate.  DPP is the most foolish here as its candidate has no chance and will most likely cost CDP a chance at winning here.

If you look at the 1- member districts that the Center-Left-JCP alliance won in 2016 are:

青森(Aomori) - Very likely LDP win.  This prefecture trended toward LDP on the 2017 PR vote
岩手(Iwate) - Very likely Opposition win
宮城(Miyagi) - tossup  
山形(Yamagata) - tossup
福島(Fukushima) - tossup
山梨(Yamanashi) - Very likely LDP win.  LDP seems to be surging here recently
新潟(Niigata) - tossup
長野(Nagano) - Very likely Opposition win
三重(Mie) - Very likely Opposition win
大分(Ōita) - tossup
沖縄(Okinawa) -Very likely Opposition win

So relative to 2016 results in 1- member districts the LDP will flip at least 2 and most likely 3-4 seats with 宮城(Miyagi) most likely to flip followed by 大分(Ōita)

On the flip side some 1- member seats that the LDP won in 2016 are now tossups or at least competitive  

栃木(Tochigi) - this was not competitive in 2016 but will be this time around.  Depends on how the old YP vote swings.  This prefecture tended away from LDP in 2017 on the PR vote
岐阜(Gifu) - this was not competitive in 2016 but will be this time around.  This prefecture trended away from the LDP in 2017 on the PR vote.
滋賀(Shiga) - was suppose to be competitive in 2016 but the DP incumbent was blown out as the JRP vote swung toward LDP.  This time a popular ex-governor is running as a pro-DPP incumbent so this race should be competitive
愛媛(Ehime) - was not suppose to be competitive in 2016 but an ex-DPJ MP ran and nearly won a upset in a close race.  The same ex-DPJ MP is running again as a joint opposition candidate and the seat is an open seat as the LDP incumbent is retiring.

The Opposition most likely will be able to pull out 1 out of this 4 with  愛媛(Ehime) being the most likely followed by 滋賀(Shiga).

[jaichind]

There continues to be all sorts of double talk from LDP on the chances of a double election in the summer.  Most likely it will not take place.  The current chatter is that the consumption tax is set to go up in October and just like 2014 it will most likely trigger an economic slowdown so Abe wants an general election now to get it out of the way instead of having to hold it in 2020 or 2021 after the expected economic slump takes place.   I still think this is not likely and a ruse to confuse the opposition so they cannot adequately prepare for the Upper House elections.

Still with the recent Center-Left JCP alliance it is expected that in a general election there will be a joint opposition candidate in most if not all of the districts to take on LDP 1-on-1 (and 3 way in 大阪   (Osaka) since we have JRP there.)  I have been working on since last year the likely joint opposition candidate per district.  There seems to be similar efforts out there.   This is one of them
   
Blue - CDP
Light Blue - pro-CDP independent
Orange - CDP
Yellow - pro-CDP independent
Red - JCP
Purple - SDP
Grey - independent without clear CDP or DPP lean 
White - TBD


My list have a bunch of them filled in but this list is pretty much a subset of my list.

[jaichind]

Poll for Upper House district 徳島(Tokushima)/高知(Kōchi) on Abe Constitution Revision has it
For 23.4 Opposed 61.2.  As a combined district has a slight anti-LDP lean due to the strength of the JCP in 高知(Kōchi).  LDP incumbent from 高知(Kōchi) will win this seat with ease but this poll indicates that LDP will lose votes here and potentially elsewhere if they make Constitutional revision a major campaign theme.

[jaichind]

塚田 一郎(Tsukada Ichirō) who is an Upper House MP from 新潟(Niigata) had to resign as land minister after he said he made a special decision to restart a road project for the constituencies of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso to please them in a speech at a campaign rally.

This comes at a bad time right before the Unified Local election this weekend.  Also 塚田 一郎(Tsukada Ichirō) himself is up for re-election in July in a swing district.  His seat was seen as a tossup JCP and DPP already withdrew their candidate to back a CDP candidate.  Now it seems likely LDP will lose this seat in July.  Getting a new LDP candidate in there could turn things around but I suspect the impact will be large enough to cost LDP this seat.

It seems that LDP has renominated 塚田 一郎(Tsukada Ichirō).  I guess the are gambling that all politics are local and his local connections could overcome pass press over his comments a few weeks ago.