2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)

[jaichind]

In 北海道(Hokkaido) governor race what was suppose to be a close contest for an open seat between LDP-KP-NPD and CDP-DPP-LP-SDP-JCP became a blowout with 45% of the vote counted it is LDP-KP-JRP-NPD 61.1% CDP-DPP-LP-SDP-JCP 38.9%

[jaichind]

In 大阪(Osaka) governor race it is a landslide with 45% of the vote counted with JRP 62.2% LDP-KP-DPP 37.6% (with implicit support from CDP and JCP)

[jaichind]

The open seat in 島根(Shimane) governor race with 91% of the vote counted has LDP rebel 43.2% LDP 34.0% Another LDP rebel 12.3% JCP 12.5%,

[jaichind]

Not call counting is done yet so a bunch of seats are still not called for 大阪(Osaka) prefecture elections but it seems that JRP made a bunch of gains from LDP and should be headed to a narrow majority by itself without KP which has shifted to LDP anyway.  The JRP "castle" gambit worked.

[jaichind]

With 87 out of 88 seats in the 大阪(Osaka) prefecture called JRP has won 51.  This is a first in Japanese prefecture assembly election history that a party that is not called the LDP has ever won a majority of seats.  Even the Koike Tokyo TPFA-KP landslide victory over LDP in 2017 did not have TPFA winning a majority of seats by itself.  JRP took on LDP-KP by itself and defeated this powerful combo.  It seems, if anything, Osaka regionalism has grown this last decade than dissipate even as JRP shrivels to near nothing outside of the Kinki region.

[jaichind]

A superficial glance at the various prefecture assembly results seems to indicate that CDP is growing at the expense LDP JCP DPP and even KP in urban areas.  In rural areas DPP is losing ground to LDP.  Overall I think LDP-KP lost a bit of ground outside 大阪(Osaka) relative to 2015 but it is very small and mostly because of the CDP urban surge.  In 大阪(Osaka) clearly LDP-KP lost a good amount of ground to JRP.

[jaichind]

Abe just had to accept the resignation of 桜田 義孝(Sakurada Yosh**taka) who is his Olympics minister due to remarks deemed offensive to people affected by the 2011 earthquake and tsunami.  Of course Sakurada is pretty famous for these gaffes.  Back in 2018 he admired that he has never used a computer before.    Anyway, another blow to Abe although nowhere near to be fatal.

[jaichind]

After the prefecture assembly elections the situation in the  by-elections in 大阪(Osaka) 12th and 沖縄(Okinawa) 3rd looks a lot darker.  Recent polls seems that in 大阪(Osaka) 12th where LDP should have an edge the JRP candidate have surged in from of the LDP, mostly due the loss of support  of the ex-DPJ ex-HP candidate to the JRP candidate due to lukewarm support from DPP-CDP.  I think if DPP-CDP-JCP could have consolidated around a candidate then they could have make it a close 3 way race but as it is JRP seems to be running away with it.  In 沖縄(Okinawa) 3rd it seems the joint opposition candidate is surging ahead in the polls despite the LDP nominating a strong candidate (former LDP MP from the Upper House.)

[jaichind]

Ashai poll on PR vote for Upper Hose elections in July (diff from March poll)

LDP    39 (-1)
KP        5(-1)
JRP       7(+3)
HP         0(-1)
DPP       2(--)
LP         1(-1)
CDP    13(+1)
SDP      1(-1)
JCP       6(--)

Big gains for JRP after its 大阪(Osaka) victory in governor and prefecture assembly elections.  All things equal LP and DPP will most likely run a joint PR list.

My current guess on PR seats are

LDP     18
KP         7
JRP        3
HP         0
DPP-LP   3
CDP     13
JCP        5

I think JRP might do one better at the expense of JCP.

[jaichind]

All signs are that for the 大阪(Osaka) 12th and 沖縄(Okinawa) 3rd by-election tomorrow the LDP continues to implode.  It seems in 沖縄(Okinawa) 3rd LDP might get blown out 60-40. 

In 大阪(Osaka) 12th the LDP is clearly well behind the JRP candidate and now risks being pushed to 3rd by the by the ex-DPJ ex-HP PR MP who is tactically being backed by DPP and perhaps CDP.  The candidate backed by JCP-SDP-LP is clearly running 4th.  My best guess for this by-election would be

JRP                39
LDP                27
ex-DPJ ex-HP  25 (tacitly backed by DPP and perhaps CDP)
JCP-SDP-LP      9

[jaichind]

NHK exit polls calls it for JRP in 大阪(Osaka) 12th and united opposition in 沖縄(Okinawa) 3rd.  It does seem like the JRP victory is not large so NHK cannot be 100% sure.  JRP not celebrating yet.

[jaichind]

大阪(Osaka) 12th exit polls. LDP edges out ex-DPK ex-HP independent for second

[jaichind]

NHK exit polls for 大阪(Osaka) 12th seems to be closer than MBS so they are not making a call yet.  NHK exit poll party ID are

LDP   26
KP       8
JRP    30
DPP     1
CDP     4
JCP      5

with the JRP candidate winning 80% of the JRP vote and 20% of the LDP vote.  The LDP candidate is winning 50% if the LDP vote and 60% of KP vote.  These numbers seems to indicate an easy JRP win.  Not sure why NHK is not calling it with these numbers.

[jaichind]

Eyeballing the MBS exit poll for 大阪(Osaka) 12th it seems to indicate something like

JRP                42
LDP                26
ex-DPJ ex-HP  23 (tacitly backed by DPP and perhaps CDP)
JCP-SDP-LP      9

Not too far from my prediction

[jaichind]

Exit polls for 沖縄(Okinawa) 3rd seems to have it as a blowout.  United opposition wins 64.4% of the early vote and 70% of election day vote.  I suspect this exit poll have an urban bias and the LDP will not be beaten that badly.


LDP candidate wins 84% of the LDP/KP/JRP vote and pretty much nothing else

[jaichind]

大阪(Osaka) 12th exit polls show a strong majority for Osaka Metropolis plan.  JRP seems to be riding this for a second wind in Osaka.  In 沖縄(Okinawa) 3rd of course it is all about the base. 

[jaichind]

A cross-tab based estimate of NHK exit polls for 大阪(Osaka) 12th exit polls would yield

JRP                41.1
LDP                28.3
ex-DPJ ex-HP  20.7 (tacitly backed by DPP and perhaps CDP)
JCP-SDP-LP      9.3

[jaichind]

沖縄(Okinawa) 3rd exit poll by age.  LDP winning the youth vote but gets crushed in middle age and elderly voters.

[jaichind]

沖縄(Okinawa) 3rd with 50% of the vote counted

Joint Opposition candidate   52%
LDP                                   48%

The count has a rural bias so far so the Opposition victory will be greater than this.  Still, like I suspected the exit poll overestimated the scale of LDP defeat.

[jaichind]

沖縄(Okinawa) 3rd with 67% of the vote counted

Joint Opposition candidate   52.7%
LDP                                   47.3%

[jaichind]

沖縄(Okinawa) 3rd with 87% of the vote counted

Joint Opposition candidate   55.6%
LDP                                   44.4%

[jaichind]

大阪(Osaka) 12th with 24% of the vote counted

JRP                40.2
LDP                29.5
ex-DPJ ex-HP  20.1 (tacitly backed by DPP and perhaps CDP)
JCP-SDP-LP     10.1

[jaichind]

大阪(Osaka) 12th with 42% of the vote counted

JRP                34.5
LDP                28.3
ex-DPJ ex-HP  23.0 (tacitly backed by DPP and perhaps CDP)
JCP-SDP-LP     14.3

[jaichind]

沖縄(Okinawa) 3rd with 97% of the vote counted (I think it will be pretty much this) (diff on 2017 result)

Joint Opposition candidate   56.2% (-1.7%)
LDP                                   43.8% (+3.5%)

LDP picking up the 2017 HRP vote.  The candidate quality balance is clearly  lean toward LDP in this by-election relative to 2017 and it shows.

[jaichind]

大阪(Osaka) 12th with 50% of the vote counted

JRP                37.2%
LDP                29.8%
ex-DPJ ex-HP  20.9% (tacitly backed by DPP and perhaps CDP)
JCP-SDP-LP     12.1%