2018 Zimbabwean general election thread

[jaichind]

Mugabe held a press conference where he refused to endorse his successor Mnangagwa.  Seems like an attempt to get attention on himself when he is no longer in the limelight.

[jaichind]

Very early returns seems to indicate large lead for Chamisa.  But I suspect they are from more urban areas and the ZANU-PF heartland are not reporting yet.

Overall I am impressed and surprised that ZANU-PF let Mugabe speak openly like this.  I figure they will put him under house arrest and say that he is "ill" or just let him take a swim in the Crocodile Nile.

[jaichind]

Not sure how legit this is but this shows with around 16% of booth reporting Mnangagwa has a large lead with ZANU-PF strongholds coming in with quicker reports.  Chamisa needs opposition urban strongholds of Harare and Bulawayo to report a strong result to have a chance.

[jaichind]

All things equal results from individual polling stations being circulated on twitter seems to favor Chamisa by large margins.   But they seem to be from urban areas.   

[jaichind]

It seems nearly 20% of the original  official result forms that the election commission will use to compute result have gone missing.  Clearly if Chamisa loses he will cry fraud.

[jaichind]

And the winner is



Mugabe !!

[jaichind]

Early official results should have been out over an hour ago.  A delay like this seems to indicate that ZANU-PF has lost.

[jaichind]

Zimbabwe's electoral commission says that they will hold back Prez results until all votes are counted and verified. 

[jaichind]

Parliamentary results so far how large of the ZANU-PF leads are going to be in their strongholds for Prez race.

[jaichind]

Another wave of parliamentary results has ZANU-PF 36 MDC 11 NPF 1.  If these results patterns hold then Mnangagwa should win on the first round.

[jaichind]

Parliamentary results so far

 

When compared to 2008



Seems to indicate that MDC still has chance since areas of 2008 MDC (both factions) strength are not being reported as much.

[jaichind]

It seems now it is ZANU-PF 56 MDC 23 NPF 1.  Some MDC seats in 2008 now being won by ZANU-PF.  It seems that ZANU-PF should get to a majority.  Also the MDC-T and MDC-A split also cost the opposition some seats. 

[jaichind]

Now it is ZANU-PF 73 MDC 28 NPF 1.

[jaichind]

Another wave of parliamentary results.  ZANU-PF winning a bunch of seats that MDC (either faction) won in 2008.  Pretty much puts ZANU-PF victory in parliamentary elections beyond doubt.

[jaichind]

It seems that all the parliamentary election results should be all announced over the next 10-15 hours or so.  It seems for Prez results it will be another 1-2 days on top of that !!! Even if ZANU-PF wants to rig the results surely they can be more efficient about it.   Only my home county of Westchester counts slower than this.

[jaichind]

https://zimelection.com/mpmap.html

has a map of results with 102 seats announced.  Hopefully after this wave of results they will update their map



2008 results in comparison

[jaichind]

With 152 out of 210 seats announced ZANU-PF now has majority at ZANU-PF 109 MDC 41 NPF 1 ZANU-PF rebel 1.

[jaichind]

Updated map

[jaichind]

With almost all seats reported it is
ZANU-PF 143 MDC 60 NPF 1 ZANU-PF rebel 1
which has ZANU-PF crossing 2/3 majority which means ZANU-PF can change the Constitution at will.  Even if Chamisa wins he will not be able to effectively govern unless a large bloc of ZANU-PF defects over to him.

[jaichind]

The election commission says that they need all 23 Prez candidates to sign off on the counting process before releasing results.  It seems the Prez election results are counted first and will released last.  I doubt this anything to do with rigging given the parliamentary results.  Meaning the parliamentary results implies a significant Mnangagwa victory so if ZANU-PF rigged the Prez results then they must have also rigged the parliamentary results.  But if that is the case the release of parliamentary results shows that 24 hours is enough time to rig the results so I do not see why that does not apply for Prez results.

[jaichind]

Latest map

[jaichind]

Protests Erupt in Zimbabwe After Ruling Party Wins Landslide

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-01/zimbabwe-ruling-party-wins-parliament-as-vote-integrity-doubted

It seems one protester died already

[jaichind]

Opposition groups are taking images of V11 results forms from each voting booth and consolidating them in

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTriDXmnDzRrA8mYmm6ZFb-97EkTITSMWwuuukDUOYhuaiPzEcgV_NaN0efyADZ2RYm_xA-kjw_eTFN/pubhtml?gid=195864949&single=true

It only covers around 6% of the voting booths and are mostly from pro-opposition strongholds.   Looking over them it seems there must be a lot of errors and mistakes but in case the number add up (total vote for Prez and Parliament seems similar) it seems clear that splintered opposition votes on the Parliamentary seats seems to be consolidating around Chamisa.  It also seems that Mnangagwa is running behind ZANU-PF all things equal. 

Of course this is only in opposition strongholds and it is not clear that the same pattern will hold in ZANU-PF areas.  Still I guess this gives Chamisa some hope he can force a second round.  Still seems unlikely but I guess is statistically possible.     

[jaichind]

If you look at https://zimelection.com/mpfullresults.html which has detailed results for 111 out of the 210 parliamentary seats the vote share in these 111 seats are

ZANU-PF  52.8%
MDC-A     33.4%
MDC-T       3.3%
PRC           1.5%  (ZANU-PF splinter)
NPF           1.1%  (pro-Mugabe ZANU-PF splinter)
Ind.           5.6%

Out of these 111 seats it is ZANU-PF 80 MDC-A 30 IND 1 when total results we have out of 210 seats it is ZANU-PF 144 MDC-A 61 NPF 1 IND 1.

Assuming these 111 are fairly representative (which it seems it is) then even if Chamisa consolidates the MDC-T vote behind him, gets a good chunk of the Independent vote (some of which are ZANU-PF rebels) and gets some vote splitting from ZANU-PF and other smaller parties the best he can reasonble hope for is to force Mnangagwa into the second round.  It is unlikely he can win outright where as there is chance that Mnangagwa might be able to pull it off although based on these numbers it seems very possible that Mnangagwa will be forced into the second round.  

I would say any rigging are most likely to figure out how to get Mnangagwa to win outright and avoid the second round versus trying to suppress an outright  Chamisa  win.

[jaichind]

With nine of Zimbabwe's 10 provinces declared, Mnangagwa has 53% of the vote and should cruise to victory on the first round.