Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[jaichind]

Looks like MS5 again beat pre-election polls ... this time just a bit.

[jaichind]

SKYTG24 has right win bloc at 228 seats

[jaichind]

SkyTg24 poll

Right wing bloc 42.6%  in Senate for 115 seats

Right wing bloc at 42% in Lower house for 228 seats

Brothers of Italy at 23.5%
Democratic Party at 20.3%
Five Star Movement at 16.4%
League at 9.6%
Forza Italia 7.8%
Centrist bloc 7.2%

[jaichind]

Looks like it was Lega that underperformed pre-election polls in exit polls

[jaichind]

SkyTg24 is now increasing its vote share for the right win bloc to be in line with other exit polls. Herding ?

[jaichind]

What is Estero?

I think abroad

[jaichind]

Is Meloni anti Russia

Yes.  I think Russia policy is an area she will be different from her allies.

[jaichind]

Absolutely terrible results for both Lega and PD. Absolutely wild for M5S given the circumstances.

It seems the voters are out to get anyone that is more aligned with the Mario Draghi government.

[jaichind]

A-IV is running as one party?

[jaichind]

A-IV is running as one party?

A is Azione or Action

IV is Italia Viva or Italy Alive.

So it is an alliance, but it is separate of the bigger blocks if that is what you mean.

Now why is this Liberal/Left ticket running separate of the center-left ticket? A-IV is partially Renzi's invention, partially Calenda's.

The government election site

https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/senato/scrutini/20220925/scrutiniSI

The results are broken out for the Right-wing and center-Left blocs.  But for A-IV it does not break them out so I assumed they ran as one party.

[jaichind]

I expected Lega to tank and am not that surprised about PD underperforming either, but M5S' result is the surprise of the night. No idea what their appeal still is, after 100,000 U turns, but I reckon they did well in Southern Italy with voters who oppose basically everybody and everything but aren't sold on FdI either, which I guess was always a possibility.

I did think ahead of time it was a distinct possibility.

Will be interesting to see if M5S outperforms pre-election polls for the third general election in a row.

[jaichind]

I wonder if the large gap between FdI and Lega could create tensions leading Lega to become a disruptive force in the new right-wing government in order to claw back its old support base.

[jaichind]

The count so far has a Northern bias.  If so then Lega is doomed to be below 10% and PD is doomed to be below 20%.

[jaichind]

It seems M5S is like Antaeus. It must always touch the Mother Earth of being in opposition to having strength or else its support falls apart by being in the ruling bloc.

[jaichind]

It seems M5S will beat out Center-Left bloc in terms of FPTP seats which is reflective of the more concentrated nature of the MS5 vote. 

[jaichind]

It seems M5S will beat out Center-Left bloc in terms of FPTP seats which is reflective of the more concentrated nature of the MS5 vote. 

In the House or Senate?

It seems almost certain in the Senate and most likely House too

[jaichind]

It seems M5S will beat out Center-Left bloc in terms of FPTP seats which is reflective of the more concentrated nature of the MS5 vote. 

In the House or Senate?

It seems almost certain in the Senate and most likely House too

No, this is false. The FPTP count in the Chamber of Deputies is 12 for the Centre-Left and 10 for the M5S, and even that in the Senate is 6 for the Centre-Left and 5 for the M5S thanks to Trentino-Südtirol electing all Senators from the majoritarian part for some weird reason.

Ah .. you are right about Trentino-Südtirol.  I did not take that in to account.  For the Senate I just figure M5S will have some more senators to come when Sicily comes in.

[jaichind]

A-IV vote seems highly correlated with the PD vote.  I guess the center-left vote in the South mostly went with M5S

[jaichind]

Why does

https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/camera/scrutini/20220925/scrutiniCI

show 146 FPTP seats for the lower house. I thought there were 147 FPTP seats ..

[jaichind]

Why does

https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/camera/scrutini/20220925/scrutiniCI

show 146 FPTP seats for the lower house. I thought there were 147 FPTP seats ..

the 147th is Aosta Valley. It is not included in that calculation

Got it thanks.  I guess a similar question

https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/senato/scrutini/20220925/scrutiniSI

has 67 FPTP seats for the Senate.  But I thought there were 74 such FPTP seats.

[jaichind]

I assume this is the lower house

[jaichind]

I just realized that in Lombardia M5S joined the Center-Left list.  It did not seem to do them much good and instead gave space to the Centrist list to get some votes.

[jaichind]

I just realized that in Lombardia M5S joined the Center-Left list.  It did not seem to do them much good and instead gave space to the Centrist list to get some votes.

Letizia Moratti (and her lists more so) is slightly underperforming the result of Azione-Italia Viva at the parliamentary election and doing much worse than the polls suggested. What are you talking about?

I am sure they match pre-election polls.  My comment was more about in comparison to the 2018 result.