Communist Party of China Congress, 2017

[jaichind]

Another key element would be continued Xi moves to swap in his people to replace those that are seen as loyal to Jiang.  Hu was never able to crack Jiang's control of the military but it seems Xi is making good headway.   The anti-"tiger" campaigns in the military did a great deal to help Xi in this respect. 

[jaichind]

Another interesting rule in the CCP power dynamics since the 1980s is the skip generational appointment of leadership.  The basic idea is that even when you are in charge it take a couple of party congress cycles for your cronies to make it to the top in the hierarchy to impact the selection of the next leader.  It was clear that Hu was Deng's favorite but not Jiang's  But when Jiang had to retire in 2002 (well, part retirement) the party hierarchy had enough of Deng appointees that Jiang had to hand power over to Hu.  But by 2002 Jiang had enough people in place and rising in the hierarchy that by 2012 that Jaing's preferred candidate, Xi, took over in 2012.  Hu never really tried to push as hard as Deng and Jiang to get his people into the hierarchy although some of his Communist Youth League cronies did it make it in.  That is one of the reasons why Xi is pretty much the most powerful CCP leader since Deng. Hu never put enough of his loyalist in place to hamper Xi's power and at the same time Jiang's influence also declined due to political half-life decay.

[jaichind]

Different scenarios for Standing Committee

Default scenario:  (Xi does not expand his power)
Xi faction 3 習近平(Xi Jinping), 栗戰書(Li Zhanshu), 陳敏爾(Chen Min'er)
Hu faction (CYL) 3: 李克強(Li Keqiang), 汪洋(Wang Yang), 胡春華(Hu Chunhua)
Jiang faction: 1: 韓正(Han Zheng)

Violation of "7 Up, 8 Down" scenario: (Xi grows in power to put in Wang)
Xi faction 4 習近平(Xi Jinping), 栗戰書(Li Zhanshu), 陳敏爾(Chen Min'er), 王岐山(Wang Qishan)
Hu faction (CYL) 2: 李克強(Li Keqiang), 汪洋(Wang Yang)
Jiang faction: 1: 韓正(Han Zheng)

Packing the Committee scenario: Xi grows in power by making the committee 7-9 to get to
Xi faction: 5-7
Hu faction: 3
Jiang faction: 1

Xi faction clean sweep and Xi becomes de facto emperor scenario:
Xi faction: 7 or 5
Zero for everyone else

Default or Violation of "7 Up, 8 Down" scenario are the most likely in my view.

[jaichind]

Another key element would be continued Xi moves to swap in his people to replace those that are seen as loyal to Jiang.  Hu was never able to crack Jiang's control of the military but it seems Xi is making good headway. The anti-"tiger" campaigns in the military did a great deal to help Xi in this respect. 

What were they about?

Xi's marketing campaign on his anti-corruption offensive.  The point is previous anti-corruption offensives only targeted "mosquitoes" but not "tigers".  Xi says he will go after "tigers" of corruption who are high up in the CCP or military which are conveniently enemies of the Xi faction. 

[jaichind]

Another interesting fact about the CCP 19th Party Congress is the level of turnover in the middle and upper tier leadership will be the greatest since the CCP 9th Party Congress of 1969 which is right in the middle of the Cultural Revolution.   The result is a new generational wave of leaders.

This new generation of leadership tend to be born in the 1950s.  So whereas Deng's generation of leaders had them being part of a revolutionary party, and Jiang and Hu generation leaders had them remembering the CCP as a revolutionary party, this generation only has memories of the CCP as an establishment party even if it had rhetoric of revolution.  The generation after this will have no memories of the cultural revolution  and will only have memories of the CCP as a party of nationalism and the profit motive.

[jaichind]

Are there any women in Chinese politics?  At all?

吳儀 (Wu Yi) who was Vice Premier. She had a technical background and frankly she was in the inner circle as the "token women."  She retired in 2008.

[jaichind]

On the next list to be purged ?  劉雲山(Liu Yunshan), member of the Secretariat of the CCP caught sleeping during Xi's speech.