German Federal Election - Sept. 24 - Results Thread

[jaichind]

Just curious, why the heck do they call it the "jamacia" coalition?

Colors of the 3 parties are the colors of the Jamaica flag.

[jaichind]

[jaichind]

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I would not call it crushed, but it's a small but significant lead in Leipzig, which is a seventh of the population, so I think it will be enough. And in some other that are not counted yet, AfD should also slightly underperform.

Now it is 424 out of 424 with AfD 27.0 vs CDU 26.9.  Gap is a bit more than 4K votes.

[jaichind]

It seems that AfD is at least second in all GDR states with the exception of Berlin.  If would be if we break down Berlin results between East and West Berlin pre-1991 and see if AfD is second place in East Berlin.   Most likely not.

[jaichind]

All things equal AfD is running 1%-2% behind its performance in the 2016 German State elections.

[jaichind]

I do not see how AfD gets much above 12.7 at this stage.  No idea why ARD has them still at 13.0 as forecast. 

[jaichind]

It seems all seats are counted.  For second vote it seems to be

CDU/CSU    33.0
SPD            20.5
Linke           9.2
Greens        8.9
FDP           10.7
AfD            12.6

AfD under-performed exit polls.

[jaichind]

Looks like there will be 92 overhand/compensation seats for 690 seats overall, easily a record. 

[jaichind]

Even though the CSU received one of its worst results ever, its share in Union votes has risen significantly.

Is this because of higher turnout in Bavaria?

[jaichind]

[jaichind]

Even 711 MPs is still less than the 950 in Italy's parliament (counting both chambers).

Well for a fair apples-to-apples comparison then you have to add in the German Bundesrat to the number of German MPs.

[jaichind]

Even 711 MPs is still less than the 950 in Italy's parliament (counting both chambers).

Then again it's worth noting that Germany will have a parliament only barely smaller than that of the entire European Union (751 MEPs). Sure, Germany is a large country but 711 MPs is too many IMO.

They should probably cap their number of MPs to 598 (the number of direct mandates*2), and elect the list MPs from a single at-large list. Not sure how that would affect the results though. Maybe a tiny bit less proportional but probably not enough to worry.

Then again according to the cube root rule Germany should only have like 435 seats so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

But if you did that you lose the pure proportionality rule.

[jaichind]

Wouldn't it still be incredibly proportional though? I think 1/600 is probably enough to compensate. Or is there some weird scenario where 299 compensation MPs would not be enough for proportionality? I guess a party could say get all the direct seats and like 0.1% of the list vote, throwing off everything but that can also happen with the current system

I think you need 709 to complete compensate.  CSU got no PR seats and won 46 direct mandates.  It seems the large number of seats was to accommodate CSU and not lose proportionality. 

[jaichind]

The compensation seats are not only because of the CSU. There have been actually 46 overhang seats.

CDU: 36
in Baden-Württemberg (11), Sachsen-Anhalt (4), Brandenburg (3), Sachsen (3), Hessen (3), Thüringen (3), Rheinland-Pfalz (3), Schleswig-Holstein (3), Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (2), Saarland (1)

CSU: 7

SPD: 3
in Hamburg (2) and Bremen (1)

Sure, but the end result being that CSU has no PR seats makes it clear the gating factor was CSU over-performed the most in the district seats over its national vote share.