Japan Oct 22 2017

[jaichind]

In the international context the fall of DP and merging into HP and part of it forming CDP fits with the narrative of the crisis of the Center-Left and the onslaught of the populist Right.  If you use my chart on PR vote share in Japan since 2000 grouped by bloc.  Even if we plug in the most pro-CDP guesstimates of their vote share in 2017 you still get the lowest vote share for the Center-Left + JCP since 2000 and in fact since WWII.  In fact it will be 3% worse than 2013 which was the peak of the Abe onslaught and 4% worse than 2012 at the peak of the JRP surge and the collapse of the DPJ government.

               LDP+           Third Pole         Center-Left        JCP
2000       41.70              12.37             34.17            11.23
2001       55.96              11.53             24.61              7.91
2003       49.73                                    42.51              7.76
2004       45.44                0.23             46.53              7.80
2005       51.43                4.80             36.51              7.25
2007       41.26                5.70             45.55              7.48
2009       38.18                8.02             46.68              7.03
2010       37.14              20.65             36.11              6.10
2012       39.45              30.38             24.05              6.13
2013       48.90              22.21             19.21              9.68
2014       46.82              18.40             22.72            11.37
2016       49.44              12.20             26.46            10.74
2017       45.00              29.00             14.00            12.00

[jaichind]

Night of Oct 8th there will be a debate of the 8 national party leaders (LDP KP PJK JRP HP CDP SDP JCP).  Abe and Koike will meet face to face.  CDP leader 枝野 幸男(Edano Yukio) will have a chance to distinguish himself as a co-equal to Abe and Koike and create an impression that CDP-SDP-JCP is an alternative to LDP-KP and HP-JRP.

[jaichind]

Still 3 days left before the nominating period closes.  It seems CDP-SDP-JCP has a goal not having duplicate candidates in any of the districts.  They also are targeting to back various ex-DP independents which in many situations are de facto backed by HP as well.   There still are a lot of them for now so there are lots of deal-making between the 3 parties over the next couple of days to get their candidates to stand down.

[jaichind]

Joint campaign appearance between HP leader and Tokyo Governor Koike, JRP leader and Osaka governor 松井一郎(Matsui Ichirō) and TCJ (Aichi right wing libertarian DPJ splinter) leader and Nagoya mayor 河村 たかし.

[jaichind]

Night of Oct 8th there will be a debate of the 8 national party leaders (LDP KP PJK JRP HP CDP SDP JCP).  Abe and Koike will meet face to face.  CDP leader 枝野 幸男(Edano Yukio) will have a chance to distinguish himself as a co-equal to Abe and Koike and create an impression that CDP-SDP-JCP is an alternative to LDP-KP and HP-JRP.

No LP?

Both of the LP diet members left and are running as independents.

Correct.  LP pretty much will merge into HP after the election.  It is for the better. Ozawa is always better as a backroom strategist than a front-line leader. 

[jaichind]

National party leader debate.




Seating arrangement similar to the GOP debate format.  Parties that poll higher sits in the middle (in this case it would be LDP HP KP JCP) followed by the rest (JRP CDP SDP PJK)

[jaichind]

Looks like Nariaki Nakayama representing the PJK there. So the PJK merger with Party of Hope is totally off?

It seems it was never really on.  I thought when PJK leader 中山 恭子(Nakayama Kyōko) defected to HP that it meant that PJK would disband or join HP.  It seems that it will go on alone.  It has no government funding so it must have wealthy donations  that keep it afloat. 

[jaichind]

When is the final filing deadline?

10/10

[jaichind]

Mainichi Sunday magazine (which is usually not that politically serious) came out with a poll

 

that indicated a surge in support for CDP an fall in support for HP in Tokyo.  Namely CDP 13.5% HP 14.7% with 21.4% undecided.  Not clear what support for LDP KP and JCP are.

[jaichind]

I hope it's right (not that I am putting any stock in it whatsoever...)

Yeah, as a rule one does not want to put too much stock in a poll that is being announced with a cartoon picture with spaceships.

[jaichind]

Out of the 289 seats CDP-SDP-JCP plus various ex-DP members have consolidated into 1 candidate in 241 of them.  In around 55 of those 241 seats HP is not running either so they become de facto joint opposition candidates to LDP.  In 5 seats this Left bloc are not running and in de facto terms back the HP candidate against LDP.  I think by 10/10 the goal is for CDP-SDP-JCP plus various ex-DP independents to from a front in all 289 seat (minus the 5 they leave to HP by themselves.)

[jaichind]

Yomiuri  poll (diff from late Sept when HP was formed with Koike as leader but CDP not formed yet)

Abe approval 41(-2)/46(--)

Have hope for LDP Yes/No 41/43
Have hope for HP Yes/No  36/56
Hope hope for CDP Yes/No 28/64

PR vote

LDP     32 (-2)
KP        6 (-1)
JRP       3 (+1)
HP      13 (-6)
CDP      7 (new)
SDP      1 (--)
JCP       4 (-1)

Looks like CDP gains from everyone but especially HP which last poll pretty much pull in most of the DP vote.

Abe approval numbers a problem for LDP.

[jaichind]

Ex-DP MP 原口 一博(Haraguchi Kazuhiro) of  佐賀(Saga) 1st district ran a good con on everyone.  Back in 2014 he barely won his seat DP 47.5% LDP 46.1% JCP 6.4%.  This time around he first agreed to run on the HP ticket knowing that is the best way to avoid a separate HP or JRP candidate.  Then a couple days before the nomination deadline he then broke with HP to run as an independent even though he indicated that he was leaving on friendly terms.  Then JCP withdrew its candidate as part of, what I am sure was a prior deal between Haraguchi and JCP.  So through various deals he triangulated  to a point where he will face the LDP candidate 1-on-1.

[jaichind]

Koike open to backing PM from LDP.  This is the opposite of Koizumi's 2001 slogan "vote LDP so I can destroy LDP" where it is now Koike 2017 "vote for the anti-LDP to get a LDP government" 

[jaichind]

Mainichi Sunday magazine (which is usually not that politically serious) came out with a poll

 

that indicated a surge in support for CDP an fall in support for HP in Tokyo.  Namely CDP 13.5% HP 14.7% with 21.4% undecided.  Not clear what support for LDP KP and JCP are.

Detailed version of this poll for Tokyo PR are

LDP    28.7%
KP       6.2%
JRP      1.3%
HP     14.7%
CDP   13.5%
SDP     1.6%
JCP    12.7%

Undecided 21.4%.  LDP-KP looks about right.  Poor result for HP and great result for CDP.  JCP also a bit higher than expected.

[jaichind]

Projection from 和子夫人(Madam Kazuko) who is famous for being the most accurate forecaster in 2009 but have been more off last few election cycles.  Her forecast has LDP KP and JCP doing poorly must imply she expect a turnout surge that helps HP CDP

              District    PR     Seats      Implied PR vote
LDP          162         62      224             31.5%
KP               7         23        30             13.0%
NPD             0           1         1               0.5%  (Hokkaido regional LDP splinter, pro-LDP this time)
JRP              9         10        19               7.0%
HP             65         43      108              23.0%
CDP           14         21        35              12.5%
SDP             1           1         2                2.5%
JCP              0         15       15                9.5%
Ind(LDP)      5           0         5      (LDP rebels or pro-LDP independents)
Ind(Oppn)  26           0       26     (ex-DP ex-LP or plus various anti-LDP elements)
------------------------------------------------
              289        176      465

On PR it feels right to me on a high turnout election although I still think HP and CDP are too high and JCP too low.   Just like other anti-LDP projections this seems to assume a very solid a tactical voting between the HP-JRP and CDP-SDP-JCP blocs at the grassroots level which I find unlikely.

[jaichind]

My current best guess on results.  LDP-KP loses seats in a higher turnout election (59%).  LDP-KP-NPD plus LDP rebels gets 287 out of 465 seats, a solid 10+ seats below 2/3 majority.  Some tactical voting between HP-JRP and CDP-SDP-JCP but not enough to win some key marginal seats.

              District    PR     Seats             PR vote
LDP          189         61      250             31.8%
KP               9         23        32             12.7%
NPD             0           1         1               0.4%  (Hokkaido regional LDP splinter, pro-LDP this time)
JRP              8         13       21                8.3%
HP             41         38        79              21.1%
CDP           13         21        34              11.9%
SDP             1           1         2                1.9%
JCP              1         18       19               11.0%
Ind(LDP)      4           0         4      (LDP rebels or pro-LDP independents)
Ind(HP)        2           0         2     (pro-HP ex-DP independents w/o support of JCP-SDP)
Ind(DP)      19           0       19     (ex-DP independents with support of JCP-SDP)
Ind(LP)        2           0         2      (pro-HP ex-LP independents with support of JCP-SDP)
------------------------------------------------
              289        176      465

[jaichind]

Latest JX poll for Tokyo (confirming the CDP surge that Mainichi Sunday magazine reported)

LDP   29 (+1)
KP       6 (+1)
HP     18 (-11)
CDP   18(new)
JCP     7(-3)

CDP surge coming at the expense of both HP and JCP.

[jaichind]

So I see parties on taking a stance on the "Consumption tax raise". Is this the same consumption tax raise they were discussing 3 elections ago? Have they been putting it off that long? Or is this a new raise and they do it every couple of years?

The consumption tax was 5%.  A law passed by DPJ and supported by LDP targeted raised that to 10% with it going to 8% in early 2014 and then 10% in early 2015.  This decision was critical in turning DPJ's 2012 defeat into a landslide defeat.   After the 2014 increase to 8% the economy fell into recession so Abe used it as an excuse to call and early election in late 2014 on the issue of delaying the 10% in early 2015.   He won and the tax increase from 8% to 10% was delayed to early 2017.  Then for the 2016 Upper House elections Abe ran on delaying that tax increase to early 2019 and won.  Now the debate is if the 2019 tax increase revenue should be used for child care (as opposed to deficit reduction) (LDP KP) or just canceled all together (HP JRP DCP JCP).

[jaichind]

Professor 児玉克哉(Kodama Katsuya) who has a reasonable record as forecaster came out with his projection which has LDP falling below majority by itself although with LDP-KP with bare majority.
The high implied vote share for KP and JCP seems to indicate a lower turnout election where LDP is beaten in the district seats due to soild anti-LDP tactical voting by JRP HP CDP JCP and it seems in some cases defections from KP.

              District    PR     Seats         Implied PR vote
LDP          160         63      223             32.5%
KP               9         25        34             14.0%
NPD             0           1         1               0.5%  (Hokkaido regional LDP splinter, pro-LDP this time)
JRP            13         13        26               8.5%
HP             79         38      117             21.0%
CDP             3         14       17                8.0%
SDP             1           0         1                1.5%
JCP              1         22       23               13.5%
Ind            23           0       23    most likely something like 4 pro-LDP 19 anti-LDP
------------------------------------------------
              289        176      465

[jaichind]

Abe approval curve. Clearly under water and a good deal worse than the 45/40 when he won the 2014 elections in a landslide.  Of course I would wait for the final NHK poll.  That should clarify the direction we are headed.

[jaichind]

Amazing that the DPJ are engaging in yet *another* harebrained scheme to oust the LDP. This'll work for sure though. Absolutely.

This is more of a factional war within the LDP that just happens to be taking place outside of the LDP.

If the projections are anything close to correct, I think Koike becomes the next PM when a large anti-Abe contingent of the LDP that is currently within the party backs her for PM after the election. Then HP probably eventually merges into the LDP, with some pro-Abe members of the LDP possibly leaving to sit in opposition. It's possible if HP does not merge into the LDP that this breaks the LDP permanently, but either way there will be a "permanent majority" party (just a question of whether that party uses the name LDP or the name HP). If Koike fails to be elected PM this time, it's hard to see how the end result is anything other than HP fizzling.

All this seems possible of LDP-KP falls below majority.  I think if LDP get hammered but wins a majority by itself or at least a majority with KP, then ABe will stay on for a while before being pushed out by or at the Sept 2018 LDP Prez election.  I doubt that in such a situation the LDP will defect en masse to Koike for the simple reason that Koike is not that popular in the LDP.  One knows this from the low number of LDP defectors to HP this election cycle.  If LDP-KP fail to win a majority then there will be all sort of schemes.

One trick that Koike has been playing is that by not having a PM candidate they are dangling that fact to get some pre-election support.  One thing HP is saying is that they do not rule out voting for the leader of KP for the PM candidate if HP fail to win a majority on its on.  Its message to KP is: "hey, tell your votes to vote for HP and the more HP MPs the more vote the KP leader might get in the vote for PM in the diet and this will add to the social respectability of KP."

[jaichind]

Other political analyst projections

鈴木哲夫 (Suzuki Tetsuo): LDP 235 KP 35 HP 93 JCP 23 DCP 26 SDP 2 JRP 22 NPD 1 Ind/other 28
角谷浩一(Koichi Koko): LDP 218 KP 34 HP 91 JCP 30 DCP 38 SDP 2 JRP 24 NPD 1 Ind/other 27 
三浦博史(Miura Hiroshi): LDP 260 KP 34-35 Opposition 170-171

[jaichind]

Latest JX poll for Tokyo (confirming the CDP surge that Mainichi Sunday magazine reported)

LDP   29 (+1)
KP       6 (+1)
HP     18 (-11)
CDP   18(new)
JCP     7(-3)

CDP surge coming at the expense of both HP and JCP.

Holy sh**t, it's happening.

If true then this will work to the advantage of LDP-KP.  In Tokyo's 25 districts, other than the 5 solid LDP seats, the generic vote at rest of the district seat was thought to be

(if CDP or pro-CDP ind were running for Left Front)
LDP-KP   40
HP         40
CDP       20

(if JCP were running for Left Front)
LDP-KP   40
HP          45
JCP         15

But with this CDP surge it looks more like

(if CDP or pro-CDP ind were running for Left Front)
LDP-KP   40
HP         35
CDP       25

(if JCP were running for Left Front)
LDP-KP   40
HP          40
JCP         20

In which case LDP will win the large majority of seats.  I think it might turn into LDP 15 seat HP 7 seats DCP 3 seats or even worse for HP.  So this sort of DCP surge works against HP and in favor of LDP-KP.

[jaichind]

Are we going to expect Nippon Ishin no Kai to sweep Osaka?

Also, what is Okinawa politics like at this level? Do they elect ant-American or left Diet members

In Osaka I do expect JRP to make gains.  Of course understand that out of the 19 Osaka seats, KP is running in 4 of them.  JRP and KP have an alliance at the local level and LDP and KP have an alliance at the national level.  So the net effect is that neither LDP or JRP runs in these 4 seats.  Even DCP does not run there given the relative positive relationship between the old DP and KP.  Only the JCP runs there to represent the Left Front.  In these 4 seats it is the battle of social outcasts (out of all the parties KP and JCP are the most socially unacceptable) but KP is sure to win.

So LDP-KP is has a minimum of 4 seats out of Osaka.  In a JRP surge scenario based on its alliance with HP  they can potentially compress LDP down to 2 seats.  DCP has the edge in a 3 way LDP-JRP-DCP district and most likely will win it with JCP support.   So out of the 19 Osaka seats JRP might get up to 12 seats versus 5 in 2014.

As for Okinawa there is still an anti-base majority against the LDP.  Even the local branch of JRP which is based on the LDP Right wing splinter POR is mostly anti-base but very anti-JCP.  The anti-base bloc is based on various local Left parties, JCP, and ex-DP.  HP seems neutral in this and will mostly back JRP.  In the Okinawa 1st district it will be LDP vs JCP vs JRP which JCP won in 2014 in a similar 3 way race.  In the other 3 districts the anti-base bloc {SDP, ex-LP ind, OSMP backed Ind) will sweep to victory over LDP with JRP-HP mostly neutral with even some tacit support.  At this stage any bloc that is against the base will win.  So strong is this tide JCP will most likely win reelection in Okinawa 1st district as well.