Malaysia General Election May 9th 2018

[jaichind]

Sarawak P192   Mas Gading

So far it is DAP 5328  BN 4053.  Back in 2013 it was BN 8265 BN rebel 6109 DAP 5293.

If these unofficial numbers are true then this is a massive swing away from BN.

[jaichind]

Sarawak P209   Julau

So far it is PH backed ind (ex-SWP)  6317  BN  5324.  Back in 2013 it was BN 9891 SWP 3936 PKR 2852

Another massive swing away from BN

[jaichind]

Sarawak P205   Saratok 

So far it is PKR 6623 BN 5527.  Back in 2013 it was BN 11600 PKR 9519. 

Small but still significant swing away from BN so far.

[jaichind]

Some Christians parts of Sarawak  look bad for BN so far.  Sarawak Muslim tribal areas votes are holding up for BN. 

[jaichind]

If I were BN I would be getting worried about the Christian parts of Sabah.

[jaichind]

Sarawak  P199   Serian  (Christian tribal seat)

So far it is BN 10974 DAP 4047.  Back in 2013 it was BN 19494 DAP 6343

Swing away from BN so far

[jaichind]

There does seem to be a swing toward BN in Sarawak Chinese seats most likely due to the Mahathir factor.  I would then expect BN to pick up a seat or two this way.

[jaichind]

Called seats so far are BN 3 (2 in Sarawak and 1 in Sabah)  PH 0

[jaichind]

BN doing reasonably well in Peninsular Malaysia marginal seats.  To be fair the number of votes in are tiny.

[jaichind]

Looking through the unofficial results at the myundi link you guys prvoided I get the following seats where the incumbent party is trailing


PH Leading BN Incumbent

P.192   Mas Gading

That's a surprise.  Swing towards PH in rural Sarawak?  This might be bad for BN

It is.  Luckily for BN the swing is in the Sarawak Christian belt.  The Muslim vote is holding up for BN and that is positive news for BN in  Peninsular Malaysia.

[jaichind]

BN 14 PH 8 Pro-PH Ind 1

Of course the Pro-PH ind. is the son of a ex-BN MP and I guess can always be bought to join BN.

[jaichind]

Very early looking at vote share from Peninsular Malaysia indicate the PAS vote is structured in a pro-BN way.  Meaning weaker than expected Kedah Kelantan and Terengganu but stronger than expected in the rest of Peninsular Malaysia.  Unless PH over-performs on its vote share. BN should storm back to victory despite its setback in Sarawak.

[jaichind]

Sarawak most likely end up BN 20 PH 10 pro-PH Ind. 1.  Amazing

[jaichind]

A bunch of PH strongholds got called ...

BN 18 PH 22 Pro-PH Ind 1
 

[jaichind]

Apparently, Sabah is in danger of falling locally to WARISAN according to rumors at the counts. If so, more fed seats could fall with incoming results.

Yes.  If Christian Sarawak swung away from BN, then that points to dangers to Sabah where if the Christians their also swing away from BN and  WARISAN also get a Muslim tribal swing away from BN then BN got big trouble.  At least in Sarawak PBB  held the Muslim tribal vote.

[jaichind]

Johor clearly swung toward PH this election.  Not sure if it is enough.  One thing is for sure.  BN's salvation now if Sabah also goes badly from them has to be the how the PAS vote is distributed.

[jaichind]

MIC's President it appears to have lost his seat.  This is the BN Indian party.  Really the Malay branch of India's INC from the 1930s.  Just like MCA is the Malay branch of ROC KMT from the 1930s-1940s.

[jaichind]

Some Johor results came in ...

BN 22 PH 27 Pro-PH Ind 1

[jaichind]

BN 29 PH 29 Pro-PH Ind 1  !!!

[jaichind]

PH not doing badly in Johor in unofficial returns

Seats Leading
PH 7
BN 6
Not yet reporting 13

Not good enough for PH.  For PH to hold BN below majority PH has to win a majority of the Johor seats, with some margin.

[jaichind]

BN 33 PH 30 PAS 1 Pro-PH Ind 1

First seat called for PAS which is in Terengganu which makes sense.  I think if PAS was going to do well somewhere it will be Terengganu.  PAS is facing significant anti-incumbency in Kelantan.

[jaichind]

Early results from Kedah seems fairly negative for BN and positive for PH and to some extend PAS.  It seems rumors of a PH and PAS surge is true.  BN did very well in Kedah in 2013. Obviously Mahathir is a large factor here.

[jaichind]

MCA and Gerkan (BN Chinese parties) Presidents both lost.

[jaichind]

Overall the unofficial leaders I tally from Myundi are;

BN   41   (-15)
PH   42  (9)
GS   6   (1)
OTH   8   (5)

125 seats to report

Seat changes in brackets

I assume OTH 8 is WARISAN and pro-PH independent

[jaichind]

BN 42 PH 36 PAS 1 Pro-PH Ind 1

Total silence from  Sabah and Kedah.

Other than Sabah I would say the remaining seats will tend to lean PH on average.