UK General Discussion: 2017 and onwards, Mayhem

[jaichind]

It seems EU gave Trump a bunch of trade concessions.

It seems May should adopt some of Trump's tactics as it tries to extricate itself from the EU. If a few hours of ``The Art of the Deal'' can secure something out of Juncker, does that not suggest that May can eventually secure some sort of deal?

[jaichind]

I do have a question:  Say The the Cooper amendment which would extend Article 50 to 12/31/19 passed.  Is that something that the UK decide unilaterally?  Even if it passed would not the EU have to agree to that as well ? 

Overall it seems May's strategy is still to get her original deal passed by waiting until the night of 3/29 when it will become clear that there is no majority for No Deal Brexit, no majority for delaying Brexit ergo there has to be a default majority for the May deal.  All the stuff she will be up to talking to the EU is just a smokescreen of showing that "she is trying to get a new better deal."

[jaichind]

YouGov poll
LAB 26
CON 38
LAB 26
TIG 14
LD 7

I recall back in the 1980s when SDP got started they polled well into the 20s and then 30s

I wonder if TIG will form alliance with LIB.

[jaichind]

YouGov poll
LAB 26
CON 38
LAB 26
TIG 14
LD 7

I recall back in the 1980s when SDP got started they polled well into the 20s and then 30s

I wonder if TIG will form alliance with LIB.

Not much different than the current 21% for TIG+LD, which is an inevitable formal or informal alliance (especially now that some really Lib Dem-y Tories have joined TIG) even if no merger happens.

Also polling was a lot sparser then so you weren't getting polls within a day or two of the initial announcement. In early February 1981, right after the announcement that they were leaving but before the SDP was officially launched, hypothetical SDP+Lib was polling in high teens to low twenties, right where TIG+LD is now.

Interesting.  Thanks for sharing.  I got the impression that SDP-LIB polled very well after SDP's formation mostly because LIB-SDP won some by-elections right after SDP's formations on very large swings against both CON and LAB.

[jaichind]

U.K. Parliament Votes to Reject No-Deal Brexit

Parliament votes 312 to 308 in favor of so-called Spelman amendment, which rejects a no-deal Brexit in clearer terms than Prime Minister Theresa May’s own motion which represents a loss for the PM.

[jaichind]

I assume all these votes to prevent No Deal Brexit be it the Spelman amendment or May's version really depends on EU unanimously agreed to push the deadline out.  Will they do that? If so how far will they push it out? If it is just a couple of months then it is just kicking the can down the road for the same crisis to drag on until a couple of months from now right ?

[jaichind]

May correctly points out that legal default remains no deal exit unless a deal is agreed with EU and passed in UK parliament and that a second referendum is an option.

[jaichind]

Looks like May is going to go for a third vote 3/20 on the Brexit deal.

[jaichind]

Looks like May is going to go for a third vote 3/20 on the Brexit deal.

On the same one? Again?

I guess she figures there is a Brexit majority.  If hardliners in that majority can see that there is going to be an indefinite delay in Brexit, she seems to believe,  then they will have no choice to vote for her Brexit deal.