Japan Elections

[jaichind]

Monday vote on postal reform does not look good for Koizumi.  The Nakasone faction of the LDP in the Upper House has came out opposing the reform bill.  If it does not passes and Koizumi's bluff is called he may have no choice but follow through on his threat to have early elections, most likely in Sept 2005.  Anti-Koizumi LDP factions might bolt and form a seperate party.  Komeito party indicated they might go with Democratic Party after the elections.   
If so, Koizumi, another Bush ally, will bite the dust.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000101&sid=aHL7FEz1g8SE&refer=japan

[jaichind]

All LDP members that vote to oppose the bill will not be nominated by the party, claims Koizumi.  Most of them will either run as independents or form a new party.  This could dent the LDP vote and be a wild card in the post-election Diet as it is likely that no bloc of parties will get a majority.  This anti-reform group could put the LDP back into power sans Koizumi.

[jaichind]

If it ousts the war criminal lover Koizumi, great.

The LDP didn't even get a plurality of the popular vote in the last election but still got a majority of the Diet since the electoral districts favor the rural areas they do well in. Hopefully this puts them out for good.

Katsuya Okada, leader of Democratic Party of Japan, has indicated that he will not visit Yasukuni.  Koizumi was suppos to visit on 8/15.  It could become an explosive issue in the election.

[jaichind]

Last poll back in July showed 36% supported LDP and 24% support DJP.  It is before the recent fiasco and does not take into account anti-Koizumi elements in LDP that might break away in the election. 

[jaichind]

The DPJ in this case is complete hypocritical.  They claim to be for reform and also for the reforming Japan Postal.  But they could have easily vote for the bill in the upper house to pass the bill.  Instead they voted no to create an election they might benifit from.  I myself am not sure the current reform effort is the right thing to do but if the DPJ is for it they should put their money where their mouth is.

[jaichind]

See

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Japan/GH09Dh01.html

for good analysis of upcoming election.

[jaichind]

Latest polls seem to be moving in Koizumi's direction.  Asked how they would vote in the election, 38 percent of respondents to the Asahi poll were undecided, 29 percent chose the LDP and 15 percent opted for the main opposition Democratic Party.
But this gap is smaller than at a similar stage in the 2001 campaign when LDP-Komeito captured a majority much smaller than the polls would suggest.  Elections in Japan are determined by floating voters and grassroots organization, especially in rural areas.  A significant number of the Postal Unions are bolting from the LDP and weakening LDP strength in its rural base.  The floating urban voter could swing once again to DPJ and deny LDP-Komeito a majority.

[jaichind]

Three Japanese new magazines has came out with projections of 9/11 election results

2003 results
LDP                  237
Komeito             34
Conservatives     4  (merged with LDP)
DPJ                  177
JCP                      9
SDP                     6
Independents   13


Projections

                           Current      Bunsyun     Mainichi      Asahi
LDP                        212              196           222           221
Komeito                   34                30             31             27
DPJ                         175             220            193          201
JCP                             9                 7                8              8
SDP                            6                 2                4              4
Independents          41               23               22            19
(includes LDP
rebels)

All three magazines, correctly in my view, assume that undecided will break for DPJ but they seem to disagree on the magnitude.

[jaichind]

LDP in a landslide.  LDP-Komeito could very well cross 350 seats out of 480.  For those that and read some Japanese, the Ashai site is good for current results.

http://www2.asahi.com/senkyo2005/index.html

Pink columns are LDP and Komeito  Blue columns are various opposition parties.

[jaichind]

With 431 seats out of 480 projected, LDP-Komeito has 299.  Looks like they will end up with about 330, lower than exit polls projected but still a smashing victory for the ruling alliance.

[jaichind]

Best result of LDP was in 1960 and 1986 where LDP won about 300 seats out of 470.  Those victories were much more impressive than today's LDP win due to the fact that under the old system (before 1996) it was much more proportional.  Today's LDP victory comes mostly from the fact it was a first-past-the-post system in 300 of 480 seats.  In the PR seats the swing toward LDP-Komeito I think is at most 3%.  As long as DJP does not fall apart it is quite possible in an election or two the LDP will be defeated with a single digit swing.  This is especially true now that Koizumi has thrown away the LDP machine in the rural areas and has lost the rural vote.  It is now dependent on the fickle urban vote for victories. 

Pretty miserable. Will those LDP bastards ever be removed for a significant amount of time? This is starting to look like Singapore.

This is the LDP's best result since 1990. Before then they used to get this sorta result all the time.
Good result for the SDP and Commies, btw.

[jaichind]

The election is bad news for Japan and LDP on the long run.  The LDP has no plans for pension reform.  I suspect that is why Koizumi says he will retire next year.  He has no answers and agenda for what to do about long term structure problems in Japan.  This Postal reform business is really a scheme to split Japan Postal into 4 companies but allow them to have cross holdings so it would easy for the 4 to re-combine.  Besides, it will not happend until 2017 under Koizumi.  The whole thing is a populist ruse for Koizumi to put all media attention on him versus the LDP rebels and marginalizing the DPJ in the meatime.  It worked for sure.  But now the LDP has destroyed is rural election machine and relies on the urban vote which could switch to DPJ as media attention shifts.  The LDP-Komeito alliance also hurts LDP on the long run.  Anti-Komeito feelings runs strong among mainstream Buddhist votes who will also turn against LDP eventually.  Most of LDP MPs are elected on Koizumi's popularity and will go down once he passes from the scene. 

[jaichind]

I heard Koizumi was pretty unpopular recently. Must've been an upswing. Still good news if there's a good chance that evil evil LDP will finally go down.

Ever since the Recruit Scandals in 1989 the Japanese voter always seems to support anything that claims to be "new."  The fall the LDP in 1993 was the doing of a bunch of LDP rebel parties all of whom had the word "new" in their names.  The "new" grand alliance government of 1993 under Hosakawa had approval ratings of over 80% before falling when he was no longer "new."  ShiShinto (New New Party) surged in 1996 based on the fact it was new just like DPJ in 2000 also did well due to the fact it was "new."  Koizumi had an approval rating of over 80% in 2001 based on his "new' approach of attacking the LDP factions in his own party.  Then Koizumi became old news and his approval rating fell to 40%.  In this election campaign Koizumi again became "new" again by daring to destorying his own LDP rural base with the Japan Postal "reforms."  It is just sad to see the Japanese voter keep on voting for the same old guys all just re-inventing themselves once in a few years and claiming that they are "new."

[jaichind]

After all the talk of a massive LDP landslide there is one basic fact.  LDP+Komeito gained 1.7% on top of their 2003 election result.  In 2003 LDP+komeito captured (34.9%+14.8%) 49.7% of the PR vote.  This time around they captured (38.2%+13.2%) 51.4% of the PR vote.  An increase of 1.7%.  It is true that this increase came inspite of the 4.8% that went to anti-Koizumi LDP rebel parties this time around.  But those who voted for the rebels were going to vote against Koizumi no matter what.  It really came down to DPJ or LDP rebels.  The LDP "reform" drive netted 1.7% of the vote.  Significant but no a massive swing by any means.  Of course LDP/Komeito did very well in the 300 directly elected seats this time.  But that is more becuase of the split of the anti-Koizumi votes between the DPJ, JCP, DSPJ and the LDP rebels as well as celerity LDP candidate to pull in the non-partisan vote.  Good strategy but a realignment this does not make.