Tokyo prefectural election, July 2 2017

[jaichind]

Tokyo Prefecture elections are considered close to "national" in status and prestige.  Due to the rise of LDP rebel governor Koike LDP and her TPFA the LDP is at risk of being reduced to a rump while TPFA-KP win a likely majority.

[jaichind]

Latest poll

Latest Tokyo Prefecture election polls has Kioke approval falling slightly and TPFA stabilizing and LDP revival stalling
 




TPFA    37.7
KP         5.4

LDP      16.3

DP         4.5
JCP        8.8

Note that DP candidates  will be split into two bloc, some are center-right which are more aligned with TPFA-KP while other are center-left which are aligned with JCP.  JRP is polling around 1%.  With that in mind we can estimate based on this poll

Third Pole Center-Right anti-LDP Bloc
TPFA+KP+DP(Right)   45.3%

LDP+ bloc
LDP+JRP 17.3%

Center-Left bloc
JCP+DP(Left) 11.3%

Edit: fixed link so they are viewable

[jaichind]

One political analyst projection

For Tokyo Prefecture elections political journalist, Suzuki Tetsuo, came out with his projection



TPFA   46
KP       21

LDP     40
JRP       0

DP        5
JCP     13
TSN      2

Majority for TPFA-KP alliance but LDP doing pretty well due to better candidate selection.

[jaichind]

My projection for now

Look at the candidate lists for now and making some assumptions on a few districts TPFA and JCP should be nominating candidates I can make my back-of-the-envelope projection of the Tokyo Prefecture elections on 7/2.
                  
LDP mainly retained most of their MLAs to run for re-election.  Some LDP MLAs did defect as did a lot of DP MLAs.  Most of them are running as independents with TPFA backing.   In urban areas there seems to be almost almost no defections from DP or LDP to TPFA.  So TPFA will have to win based on its brand appeal there versus taking over the political machines of defecting MLAs.  It is in rural areas where such defections are significant.  The main problem there is the majority of these rural districts are 1- 2- or 3- seat districts where these defectors then are fighting with the TFPA recruited candidate in a 4 way battle between LDP, TPFA, TPFA backed defector from LDP or DP, and JCP.  Often these battles are split in such a way as to ensure that LDP does win a seat from the 2- and 3- seat districts.

So with the LDP machine mostly intact in urban areas where one expects a large swing from LDP to TPFA and damage to LDP limited and in rural areas where TPFA did get some defectors but a crowed field plus a smaller swing toward TPFA also limits gains.

As a result the TPFA landslide the polls keeps on talking about does not materialize although TPFA bloc plus KP should win a narrow majority and LDP lives to fight another day.


                                 Contested    Win
TPFA total                       57          45
  TPFA                             37          31
  TPFA (ex-DP)                  2            2
  TPFA (ex-LDP)                1            1
  TPFA (ex-JRP)                 1            1
  TPFA (ex-YP)                  3            3
  Ind (ex-DP)                  10            4
  Ind (ex-LDP)                  2            2
KP                                 23          23

LDP                               60          39
JRP                                 6            0

DP                                22            5
DP rebel                          1            0
TSN                                4            3
SDP                                1            0
JCP                               36          12

[jaichind]

Couple of other political analyst projections

Asahi Weekly asked two political analysts to project the Tokyo Prefecture elections.  They are 角谷浩一(Kakutani Koichi) 松田馨 (Matsuda Kaoru)

 They came up with




                 Kakutani                Matsuda
LDP              43-45                   27-30
KP                   23                        23
TPFA             40-45                   58-62
JCP                  13                      11-14
DP                  0-3                        1-2
TSN                  1                         1-2
JRP                   0                          0
Ind.                  0                          0

Kakutani focused on poor quality and inexperience of TPFA candidates and that they were nominated too late in the election process while Matsuda focused on the anti-LDP wave in Tokyo to carry TPFA to victory. Kakutani  warned that it is possible that TPFA-KP will fail to win a majority an that Koike will have to run back to making deal with LDP to get her agenda through after the election.

My projection seems to be somewhere between the two where although closer to Kakutani where I mostly assumed the anti-LDP wave will carry TPFA in urban areas while in rural areas the LDP quality candidate will win out.  It also seems I am much more positive on DP and TSN then both of them are.  At lot of it are based on the fact that TPFA is conservative in its nomination strategy in some districts where then I assume the anti-LDP vote will flow DP and TSN way.  If TPFA nominates more candidates then DP and TSN will be sunk and mostly to the advantage of LDP.

[jaichind]

2005 2009 2013 Tokyo Prefecture election results

A comparison to 2005 2009 2013 elections



Green TPFA
Blue LDP
Pink KP
Red DP
Orange JCP
Light Green JRP
Yellow SNT (center left local Tokyo Party)
Brown - YP (defunct)
Grey - other/independents

It is funny how KP always wins 23 seats no matter what.  It gets 23 seats in a "normal" Tokyo prefecture election in 2005, it wins 23 in a DP victory in 2000, it wins 23 in a LDP-KP landslide and DP collapse in 2013, and now it will win 23 in a TPFA-KP landslide with a collapse of LDP as well as near extinction of DP.

In 2009 the 2 other/independents are split into 1 pro-DPJ independent and 1 minor Left party
In 2005 the 5 other/independents are split into 2 pro-LDP independent and 3 minor Left parties

[jaichind]

My calculated results of 2005 2009 and 2013 Tokyo Prefecture election results


2005  ("Normal" LDP-KP win)

             Contest  Win   Vote Share
LDP          62        50    32.40%
LDP Rebel   9         0       1.41%
KP            23        23    18.00%
DPJ           55       35     25.38%
DPJ rebel     1        0        0.09%
SNT           10         3       4.14%
Minor Left   8         3       2.67%
JCP           42       13     15.57%
Ind.           9         0       0.33%



2009   (DPJ surge  -  DPJ's vote share is a record for any party in Tokyo Prefecture elections)

             Contest  Win   Vote Share
LDP           61       38      26.87%
LDP Rebel   3         0        0.46%
KP             23       23      13.19%
DPJ           63       55      42.40%
DPJ Rebel    2        0        0.31%
SNT             5        2        1.96%
Minor Left   7        1        1.67%
JCP           40        8       12.56%
HRP          10        0        0.24%
Ind.           7         0        0.33%



2013 (DPJ collapse, LDP surge, JRP and especially YP emerge as players as turnout collapse)

             Contest  Win   Vote Share
LDP           59       59       36.04%
LDP Rebel    2         0         0.14%
KP             23       23       14.10%
JRP            35        2          8.33%
YP              20        7         6.87%
DPJ            52      15       17.14%
DPJ Rebel    1         1         0.32%
SNT             5         3         2.08%
Minor Left   7         0         1.12%
JCP           42       17       13.61%
Ind.            7         0         0.26%

[jaichind]

My latest projection.

TPFA got to nominate more candidates while DP suffered more defections where it withdrew candidates due to rebellion.  My current projection as a result is

                                 Contested    Win
TPFA total                       57          46
  TPFA                             37          32
  TPFA (ex-DP)                  3            3
  TPFA (ex-LDP)                2            2
  TPFA (ex-JRP)                 1            1
  TPFA (ex-YP)                  3            3
  Ind (ex-DP)                    9            4
  Ind (ex-LDP)                  1            1
  Ind (ex-JRP)                   1            0
KP                                 23          23

LDP                               60          42
JRP                                 6            0
Horie Party                      4           0     (LDP rebel party formed by Livedoor founder Horie)

DP                                21            3
DP rebel                          1            0
SNT                                4            2
SDP                                1            0
GP                                  1            0
JCP                               37          11

TPFA-KP bloc with 69 seats and a bare majority.  LDP making gains due to weakness of TPFA candidates and DP implosion along with over-nomination.  

[jaichind]

It is interesting to look at the various Tokyo Prefecture districts grouped by the size of the district since they lead to different dynamics and strategies.   

If we only focus on the 5- 6- 7- 8- districts and look at the 2013 results and my 2017 projections you get

2013
             Contest  Win   Vote Share
LDP           19       19       34.69%
LDP Rebel    1         0         0.21%
KP             11       11       18.80%
JRP            11        1          7.57%
YP               7        5          8.14%
DPJ           13        3        12.00%
SNT             4        2         4.04%
Minor Left   3         0         1.96%
JCP             8         8       12.35%
Ind.            2         0         0.24%

Here the fact that KP can nominate candidates at a number equal to its vote potential makes clear the size of the KP base in densely populated where the KP lower middle class are clustered.

My 2017 projection has
                                 Contested    Win
TPFA total                       16          16
  TPFA                             11          11
  TPFA (ex-DP)                  1            1
  TPFA (ex-LDP)                1            1
  TPFA (ex-JRP)                 1            1
  TPFA (ex-YP)                  2            2
KP                                 10          10

LDP                               18          12
JRP                                 4            0

DP                                  9            2
SNT                                3            1
SDP                                1            0
JCP                                 9            8

where KP and JCP vote mostly stays intact but DP and LDP loses votes to TPFA.  It is in these seats that most the LDP losses in terms of seats will take place.


On the other side, we can look at the 2017 15 2- districts.  They are less densely populated areas where there are less of the lower middle class voters which tends to vote KP and JCP.  KP mostly does not run here since they know they cannot win and mostly instruct their voters to vote LDP.  Usually they are split between LDP and a non-LDP winner and is the lifeblood of DPJ since most of the time the non-LDP winner is DPJ.

2013
             Contest  Win   Vote Share
LDP           16       16       41.26%
KP               1         1         2.02%
JRP            10        1          9.55%
YP               4         0         3.50%
DPJ            16        9       24.56%
DPJ rebel      1        1         1.45%
SNT             1        1         1.94%
Minor Left    2        0         0.46%
JCP            15        1       15.26%
Ind.             2        0         0.04%

Here since KP does not run and third pole parties (JRP and YP) run less, DPJ LDP and JCP vote share are higher than their real support since KP voters and some third pole party votes are spread across these three parties.  LDP-KP  ran 17 candidate which means in 2 seats they tried successful to win both seats, a difficult task.

In 2017 my projection are

                                 Contested    Win
TPFA total                       23          14
  TPFA                             13          10
  TPFA (ex-DP)                  1            1
  Ind (ex-DP)                    8            3
  Ind (ex-JRP)                   1            0
KP                                   1            1

LDP                               16          14
Horie Party                      2           0     (LDP rebel party formed by Livedoor founder Horie)

DP                                  5            0
DP rebel                          1            0
SNT                                1            0
JCP                               13            0

LDP is trying to win both seats in one of the districts which is doomed to fail.  Here TPFA is trying to crush the LDP by squeezing out the LDP on 14 out of the 15 districts completely.  TPFA-KP nominates its own candidate in all the districts and has a former DP and JRP candidate from 2013 to run as an independent in most of the districts. It also backs the DP and SNT candidate where they do not do this.  The idea is the TPFA candidate will capture the LDP and KP vote while the TPFA backed ex-DP independent or DP and SNT candidate try to corner the DPJ and JCP vote.  The hope is that both would be big enough to push LDP to third place.  My projection shows that this will mostly not succeed and as a result LDP loses very little from 2013 in terms of seats even as it loses vote share.   

So battle to crush LDP by TPFA will be won and lost in the 2- seat districts.  And given the candidate quality of the LDP it seems it will not work which limits the overall LDP losses.

[jaichind]

Latest Yomiuri poll a blow for TPFA



LDP          25
TPFA         22
KP              6
JCP            6
DP             5
Others       3
Ind            6

TPFA might not even emerge as the largest bloc over LDP let alone try to win a landslide victory.  Although Ind vote share of 6% should all be accrued toward TPFA since pretty much all viable independents are all really TPFA backed independents.  Still TPFA+Ind. lead over LDP is too small for TPFA to win in a convincing victory.   

The only caveat is that back in 2013 a similar poll about a month before the election had LDP 38% DPJ 10% with the election result LDP 36% DPJ 17%.  So if LDP is held to 25% of the vote then most likely it will be held to around 38-40 seats.

[jaichind]

New projection from political strategist  松田馨 (Matsuda Kaoru) in which he has breakout by district



TPFA   56
KP      23
LDP    27
JRP      0
DP       1
SNT     2
JCP    12
Ind.     6 (looking at the districts projection this 6 is 5 pro-TPFA independents and 1 DP rebel)

I mostly do not buy these projections.  He has TPFA winning seats in districts where they do not have candidate there.  If it is so easy for TPFA to win all these seats then why is it so far for TPFA to come up with candidates?  In the end my view is that all politics are local and candidate quality will count.

[jaichind]

Long time political analyst 児玉克哉 (Kodama Katsuya) projects TPFA at 50+ seats and to clear 70+ with KP for a clear majority. 

He also projects DP at around 5 seats making the argument that DP should be able to win seats in the various 6- and 8- member districts.  My main problem with that is in many of those seats DP unwisely nominated 2 candidates which means most likely neither will win.

[jaichind]

Media painting the battle as TPFA-KP vs LDP-JRP

[jaichind]

A major election issue is the fate of the famous Tsukiji fish market.  The current facilities and run down and falling apart.  The Tokyo government under  Ishihara (enemy of Koike) years ago arranged for a new spot which was previously occupied by a plant operated by Tokyo Gas and was scheduled to be operational in November last year.  But dangerous levels of chemicals in soil now made Koike delay the move indefinitely while she investigates how the site was picked.  The LDP, mostly correctly, accuse Koike of holding up the move as a way to go after  Ishihara and score political points against LDP.  In the meantime market traders that planned to move to the new site are losing money and getting more vocal about Koike making a quick call on this.

[jaichind]

Mainichi/Kyodo joint poll has LDP ahead of TPFA in voting intentions



LDP     17
TPFA    11
JCP        6
KP         5
DP        3
SNT      1
Ind.      4  -> Most of relevant Independents are pro-TPFA

What is interesting is TPFA support is 13 among men and 9 among women despite the fact that Koike is making is a TPFA platform to get more women into the Tokyo Prefecture assembly by nominating an unprecedented number of women candidates.


Koike has 63% approval rating and among those that back Koike the voting intentions

TPFA    17
LDP      15
JCP        6
KP         5
DP        3
SNT      1
Ind.      4  -> Most of relevant Independents are pro-TPFA

[jaichind]

Nikkei poll of Tokyo for voting intentions

LDP         31 (-1)
TPFA        21 (+4)
DP             6 (+3)
KP             5
JCP            5

[jaichind]

My latest projection.
                                 Contested    Win     Vote Share
TPFA total                       58          46            28%
  TPFA                             27          22
  TPFA (ex-DP)                  7            7
  TPFA (ex-LDP)                8            8
  TPFA (ex-JRP)                 1            1
  TPFA (ex-YP)                  3            3
  Ind (ex-DP)                  10            4
  Ind (ex-LDP)                  1            1
  Ind (ex-JRP)                   1            0
KP                                 23          23            14%

LDP                               60          41            30%
JRP                                 6            0               2%
Horie Party                      4           0     (LDP rebel party formed by Livedoor founder Horie)

DP                                23            4               8%
DP rebel                          2            0
SNT                                4            2               2%
Minor Left                       4            0
JCP                               38          11             13%

TPFA-KP wins 69 seats and 42% vote share narrowly defeats LDP-JRP with 41 seats and 32% vote share for a narrow majority.

[jaichind]

Latest JX poll which always had a pro-Koike pro-TPFA tilt has Koike approval rating falling



For voting intentions it has




TPFA+pro-TPFA independents   32.5%
LDP                                         18.1%
JCP                                            8.3%
KP                                             5.0%
DP                                             4.3%

Also in bad news for Koike 39% is for moving the Tsukiji fish market (LDP position) while 26% is for delaying it (Koike's position.)

[jaichind]

A key Tokyo LDP operative is quoted as saying "Back in March we figured it was LDP 41-42 seats and TPFA 51 seats.  Now we figure it is LDP 47-48 seats TPFA 42 seats"

[jaichind]

DP now faces an existential threat in Tokyo and seems incapable to dig itself out of the crisis.  The rise of TPFA as a third pole (anti-LDP center-right) force in Tokyo risks turning Tokyo into a LDP vs TPFA system where DP is pushed to the fringes without a core base.  JCP was an always will be on the fringes but has a core vote.  The Osaka 2007 2011 and then 2015 experience where ORA started as a LDP splinter in 2011 pushed DP to the fringes in a city where LDP was historically weak and DP relatively strong looks set to be replayed in Tokyo.

The Osaka 2007(before ORA arrived on the scene), 2011 (ORA-YP takes on LDP-KP), and 2015 results look like

2007
            Contest         Won      Vote Share
LDP           67            52           35.12%
KP             23            23           18.53%
DPJ           38             25           23.53%
SDP            1               1             0.75%
JCP           45             11           20.60%
Indep       12               0             1.48%

2011
              Contest        Won      Vote Share
LDP            42             17          18.34%
KP              22             21          14.49%
ORA            61             58          41.07%
YP                2               1            0.75%
DPJ             36             10         12.91%
SDP              1               0           0.31%
JCP             38              4          11.60%
Indep           4              0            0.54%

2015
           Contest       Won         Vote Share
LDP        52             26            29.39%
KP          15             15            10.73%
ORA        57             43            42.86%
DPJ         14              1               4.81%
JCP         35              3             11.83%
Indep       9               0               0.39%

Tokyo 2017 looks to be worse for DP than Osaka 2011.  At least ORA mostly poached LDP for its candidates in 2011 even as it pulled in anti-LDP DP votes.  In Tokyo 2017 TPFA poached a large number of DP candidates so Tokyo 2017 will look at lot more like Osaka 2015.

 

[jaichind]

Asahi poll



Tokyo voting intentions

LDP         31
TPFA        20
JCP            7
Ind.           7 (most relevant independents are pro-TPFA)
DP             7
KP             4
Others       4


For those very likely to vote it is

TPFA        34
LDP         19
JCP          11
KP             7
DP             5
Ind.           4 (most relevant independents are pro-TPFA)
Others       3

So I guess in theory a very low turnout helps TPFA JCP and KP and high turnout helps LDP and DP

[jaichind]

Lets be clear.  No matter what the poll say KP will get 13%-15% of the vote depending on overall turnout.  KP always under-polls since KP vote turnout is near 100% so it is impossible for polls to pick up their true vote share.  Also there being a KP vote comes with some social ostracization so some KP voters answers "do not know" or even "LDP" (since LDP is allied with KP at the national level) when polled on voting intentions.  Since KP is allied with TPFA this time around it is unclear which party is as a result over-polling (LDP or TPFA).

[jaichind]

Kyodo News poll of 2009 2013 and 2017

2009 poll LDP 20 DPJ 29 -> result LDP 26.87% DPJ 42.40%
2013 poll LDP 34 DPJ 11 -> result LDP 36.04% DPJ 17.14%
2017 poll LDP 17 TPFA 11 DP 3 -> result ?

The number of undecided are quite large this time around.

Also in terms of turnout

2009 poll -> will + maybe will vote 83% -> turnout 54.4%
2013 poll -> will + maybe will vote 78% -> turnout 43.5%
2017 poll -> will + maybe will vote 93% -> turnout

Turnout will be high.  Most likely will help DP (although might be too little too late) and hurt KP and JCP.  LDP I think benefits more from higher turnout than TPFA but the turnout surge might be part of a pro-Koike surge which will help TPFA more.

[jaichind]

Koike officially quits LDP to become leader of TPFA.

[jaichind]

LDP candidates mostly trying run on Abe's coattails

中村 彩(Nakamura Aya) who is the LDP candidate in the single member district of 千代田 (Chiyoda) campaigns in person with her campaign flag.  Abe is prominent on her flag.  The old LDP incumbent has retired feeling that he is unable to fight off the TPFA onslaught.  She is a political novice and faces a TPFA novice candidate (with explicit backing from KP and implicit backing from DP) as well as a pro-JCP independent.