French Legislative Election 2017

[jaichind]

BVA poll

LREM 30
LR 20
FN 18
FI 12,5
PS 8
EELV 3
PC 2
DLF 2

Same poll seems to project LREM to get "more than 375 seats"

[jaichind]

OpinionWay poll

LREM      30 (+1)      370–400  (+40 seats)
LR-UDI    20 (+1)      120–150 (-20 seats)
FN           18                 8–18    (+1 seat)
FI            12 (-1)      FI/PCF 12–22 (-11 seats)
PCF           3
PS-PRG      7(-1)       PS/PRG/EELV 15–25 (-8 seats)
EELV         3

Converging toward other polls in terms of seat count for LREM

[jaichind]

It seems that all the polls has LREM-MoDem at around 30%-32%.  If that were to take place tomorrow and LREM-MoDem gets a massive majority of seats next week that would be a strange but understandable landslide since 30%-32% would be pretty much the lowest first round vote share of a Presidential Majority Bloc in living memory but will be en route to the largest majority in living memory (with exception of 1993 perhaps)

[jaichind]

RTBF exit poll

LREM 32%
LR 20,5%
FN 18%
FI 11%
PS 6%

If this poll is true, it means a complete collapse of the left
 

Sum of all these votes are 87.5%.  So I assume the LREM number does not include MoDem, the LR number does not include UDI and misc right, the PS number does not include EELV and PRG?  And even then these numbers seems too low.

[jaichind]

I wonder how many candidates will actually win 50%+ today, but will have to go to Round 2 because of the crappy turnout (requirement) today ...

The threshold to get to second round is 12.5% of registered voter.  I forgot, What is the threshold to win on the first round?

[jaichind]

RTBF exit poll

LREM 32%
LR 20,5%
FN 18%
FI 11%
PS 6%

If this poll is true, it means a complete collapse of the left
 

This plus the low turnout means the 12.5% will crush the PS and EELV.  I suspect in some places it will hurt FI as well.

[jaichind]

Selon une première estimation nationale, fondée sur les "bureaux test", l’abstention est de 50,5%. Le mouvement La République En Marche obtiendrait 32,7%, les Républicains, 21,4%, le FN, 13,1%, France insoumise 10,7%, le PS, avec les Radicaux de gauche 9%, le Parti communiste 3,9% et Europe/Ecologie-Les Verts 3,1%. Des résultats plus précis sont attendus vers 19h30

The PS numbers look better on this one and FN a lot worse. 

[jaichind]

Any links for results once we hit 8pm Paris time ?

[jaichind]

LREM   32.2    390-430
LR       21.5      85-125
FN       14           3-10
FI        11         11-21
PS       10.2      20-35
Other    3.3        7-12
EELV     3

PS over-performed, FN under-performed.

[jaichind]

Kantar Sofres seems to have

LREM    33.5
LR        20.8
FN        13.1
FI         11.3
PS+        9.5

[jaichind]

A FN vote share of around 13% would make it an ever lower vote share result than FN in 2012. 

[jaichind]

With 57% of the vote counted it is

LREM-Modem         30.87%
LR-UDI-Misc Right   22.68%
FN                          14.52%
FI                           10.36%
PS-RG-Misc Left        9.71%
EELV                        3.75%
PCF                          2.57%
DLF                          1.16%

[jaichind]

With 62% of the vote counted it is

LREM-Modem         31.01%
LR-UDI-Misc Right   22.41%
FN                          14.49%
FI                           10.39%
PS-PRG-Misc Left      9.76%
EELV                        3.75%
PCF                          2.64%
DLF                          1.15%

LREM and PS+ heading upward while LR and FN heading downward.  

[jaichind]

With 66% of the vote counted it is

LREM-Modem         31.17%
LR-UDI-Misc Right   22.23%
FN                          14.38%
FI                           10.47%
PS-PRG-Misc Left      9.79%
EELV                        3.79%
PCF                          2.64%
DLF                          1.15%

LREM FI PS continue to gain ground. LR FN continue to lose ground.  Convergence to exit polls.

[jaichind]

Is there a site, where I can see the result of each constituency prefereably on a map

Same here.  I cannot find one so I am reduced to clicking around the Ministry of Interior website. 

[jaichind]

With 71% of the vote counted it is

LREM-Modem         31.18%
LR-UDI-Misc Right   22.11%
FN                          14.44%
FI                           10.53%
PS-PRG-Misc Left      9.77%
EELV                        3.83%
PCF                          2.69%
DLF                          1.15%

[jaichind]

Its amazing that most second place finishers does not cross the 12.5% threshold either and will only advance because they finished second.

[jaichind]

With 76% of the vote counted it is

LREM-Modem         31.31%
LR-UDI-Misc Right   22.00%
FN                          14.39%
FI                           10.59%
PS-PRG-Misc Left      9.69%
EELV                        3.88%
PCF                          2.70%
DLF                          1.15%

LREM rise continues while LR and FN fall continues.

[jaichind]

How is this even possible that there is ovet 70% of votes counted?

I think voting stopped at 7pm and counting started.  8pm polls only close in certain urban areas so for most districts we had an extra hour of vote counting.

[jaichind]

Still, I doubt that there is more than 70% counted. AFP shows only 32% of counted.

http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/legislatives-2017/FE.html

seems to show over 17 million votes counted.  Turnout this time is below 50%.  In 2012 near 26 million votes were counted with turnout of over 57%.  Nearly 80% of the votes counted seems right.  

[jaichind]

With 81% of the vote counted it is

LREM-Modem         31.42%
LR-UDI-Misc Right   22.06%
FN                          14.32%
FI                           10.57%
PS-PRG-Misc Left      9.57%
EELV                        3.92%
PCF                          2.72%
DLF                          1.16%

LREM continue to rise FN continue to fall.

[jaichind]

With 86% of the vote counted it is

LREM-Modem         31.73%
LR-UDI-Misc Right   21.85%
FN                          14.09%
FI                           10.66%
PS-PRG-Misc Left      9.53%
EELV                        4.01%
PCF                          2.74%
DLF                          1.16%

LREM continue to rise, LR and FN continue to fall.  This trend will accelerate after Paris starts coming in, especially for FN.

[jaichind]

Why is the PS all of a sudden at 13%?

LREM 32 %
LR 21.2 %
Fi 14.2 %
FN 13.9 %
PS 13.3 %
Autres 5.4 %

https://twitter.com/HippoRds/status/873998749571444736

Perhaps they are adding EELV-ECO into PS+ ?

[jaichind]

With 90% of the vote counted it is

LREM-Modem         31.92%
LR-UDI-Misc Right   21.71%
FN                          13.81%
FI                           10.80%
PS-PRG-Misc Left      9.55%
EELV                        4.07%
PCF                          2.74%
DLF                          1.18%

LREM continue to rise, LR and FN continue to fall.  PS most stable.

[jaichind]

FN most likely to finish below its 2012 result of 13.6%