UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[jaichind]

New Comres poll
CON 48%-2
LAB 30%+5
LIB 10% -2
UKIP 5%-2

LAB resurgence story seems alive.

[jaichind]

YouGov: Con 49, Labour 31, LDem 9, UKIP 3, Others ??
ComRes: Con 48, Labour 30, LDem 10, UKIP 5, SNP 4, Greens 3
Opinium: Con 47, Labour 32, LDem 8, UKIP 5, SNP 5 Greens 2
ORB: Con 46, Labour 32, LDem 8, UKIP 7, Others ??

At which point can we confidently predict Conservatives winning a minimum of 400 seats in the House of Commons?  The percentages presented here seem to suggest that would be the outcome. 

Actually, if LAB vote gets up to 31%-32% then all things equal I think CON will miss, by a small margin, getting above 400 seats.  Most recent polls seems to indicate that getting to 31% GB vote share (and even beating 2015 GB vote share) seems within reach for LAB.

[jaichind]

It seems at the rate we are going UKIP's vote share in 2017 might be barely larger than 2010 even though that is more of a function of  running a lot less candidates in 2017 than 2010.

[jaichind]

Jeb! kind of tanked Jeb!. I mean I see your point in that the GOP voters wished to rid themselves of being connected at the hip to that policy, but still.

For sure.  That was one of the main reasons I did not back Jeb Bush in the GOP primaries in 2016 and backed Rubio instead.  It was not even Jeb Bush's position on Iraq which was ambiguous but more of a matter of him being linked to his brother.  In theory on the other side the neocon vote should have go to Jeb Bush but did not seems to have taken place.

[jaichind]

Guardian/ICM Poll


CON             48 (-1)
LAB              28 (+1)
LIB               10 (+1)
UKIP               6 (nc)

[jaichind]

Panelbase Poll

CON           47 (-1)
LAB            33 (+2)
LIB              7 (-1)
UKIP            5 (nc)

Same trend. LAB up and LIB down.

[jaichind]

Kantar poll

CON    47 (+3)
LAB    29 (+1)
LIB      8  (-3)
UKIP    6 (-2)

Looks like herding toward the other polls

[jaichind]

Business Insider / GfK election poll

CON       48
LAB        28
LIB          7
UKIP       5

[jaichind]

UK unemployment rate falls to 4.6%, the lowest rate since 1975

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-39945782?ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_breaking&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central

Yes, yet real wages fell which is a function of higher inflation due toe the falling of GBP since Brexit.   I guess going forward pay increases will accelerate due to labor market conditions but I suspect that by early 2020s real wages will still be below 2008 levels.

[jaichind]

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/john-mcdonnell/news/85905/john-mcdonnell-polls-are-showing

John McDonnell (Shadow Chancellor): Polls are showing Labour is going to win the election

This is very problematic in terms of logic and math.  It is one thing to say the polls are wrong it is another to say polls which show at best LAB behind CON by 14% shows that LAB is going to win.

[jaichind]

YouGov/The Times  poll

CON     45 (-1)
LAB      33 (+2)
LIB        8 (-3)
UKIP      6 (+1)

LAB at new high.  Most likely part of a surge related to the manifesto being released.

[jaichind]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-corbyn-labour-leader-tony-blair-support-election-2017-uk-prime-minister-polls-a7740921.html

Tony Blair would win fewer votes than Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader, new poll reveals

GfK poll showed that

31% will vote for a party led by Corbyn
23% will vote for a party led by Blair
24% will vote for a party led by Miliband
25% will voet for a party led by Cooper

It seems even if Corbyn leads LAB to a historic defeat he is still the best they got.

[jaichind]

Ipsos MORI

CON      49 (nc)
LAB      34 (+8)
LIB        7 (-7)
Greens   3 (+2)
UKIP      2 (-2)

LAB surge confirmed, mostly at expense of LIB

[jaichind]

CON      57
UKIP     53
DUP      44
BNP      38
LIB       36
SF        32
PC        30
LAB      30
Green    30
SNP       28

[jaichind]

Opinium/Observer poll

CON 46 (-1)
LAB 33 (+1)
LIB    8 (-)
UKIP  5 (-)
SNP   5 (-)

[jaichind]

Guardian/ICM

CON        47  (-1)
LAB         33  (+5)
LIB           9   (-1)
UKIP         4  (-2)
Greens      2  (-1)

[jaichind]

Explosion, Panic and Death at Ariana Grande Concert in England

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/22/world/europe/ariana-grande-manchester-police.html?_r=0

[jaichind]

Predictit price for CON over 390 seats jumped around 7% right after the explosion. 

[jaichind]

YouGov has Labour now polling at 38% today. The poll was taken from the 24th - 25th.

If this ends up being the result Corbyn would have earned his right to stay on as LAB leader.

[jaichind]

Sun/SurveyMonkey poll

[jaichind]

ICM/Sunday Poll

CON          46
LAB           32
LIB             8
UKIP           5
Green         2

[jaichind]

Westminster voting intention (#Scotland)
SNP 39%
CON 29%
LAB 25%
LD 4%
GRN 2%
UKIP 1%
(SurveyMonkey/The Sun - 28 May - 2000 ppl)



@SirDavidButler
Voters are more volatile: the proportion switching parties between elections rose from 15% in 1960s to 43% in 2015.

CON numbers seems consistent with others but this poll does seem to indicate some sort of shift away from SNP and LIB toward LAB.

[jaichind]

Nicola Sturgeon confirms interest in a coalition with Labour as she says Tory governments 'damage Scotland'

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/28/warning-coalition-chaos-nicola-sturgeon-says-would-seek-progressive/

It seems the CON talking point of "Coalition of Chaos" will be back ...

[jaichind]

Survation poll

CON           43
LAB            37
LIB              8
UKIP           4

[jaichind]

STV election poll Scotland



SNP   43
CON   25
LAB   25
LIB     5