UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[jaichind]

Evening Standard/Ipsos Poll

CON  - 49%
LAB  -  26%
LIB  -   13%
UKIP -    4% (!!!)

I think the last Evening Standard/Ipsos Poll back in March had UKIP at 6% only so perhaps this poll has an anti-UKIP bias.

Same poll had May leading Corbyn for leader 61 vs 23.  At her peak, Thatcher had 48 right before the 1983 landslide and at his peak Blair had 52 right before his 2001 landslide.

[jaichind]

What is interesting about this election is that for the first time the CON vote share will most likely be above LAB + LIB vote shares combined.  I do not think this has even taken place in the modern era.  The only exception seems to be 1955 but LIB contested so few seats that year I do not really count that.

[jaichind]

If you use the current projection of (which I agree could be exaggerated)

http://principalfish.co.uk/electionmaps/

which has vote share projection of each seat.  And then assume that a grand anti-CON coalition is formed which merges the votes of LAB LIB Green PC and SNP into one anti-CON opposition candidate, CON would still win at least 325 seats for a majority since its votes are so well concentrated in enough areas.s

[jaichind]

If you use the current projections of

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

Which has seat by seat projections and assume a Grand Coalition of LAB LIB Green SNP and PC, CON still wins 341 seats.  The current model has CON picking up 77 seats for 408.  In a Grand coalition situation CON would still gain 19 seats but lose 9 current seats for a total of 341.

I am pretty sure in 1983 if LAB, LIB/SDP, SNP and PC formed an alliance and all the votes perfectly transferred CON would not win a majority.  Just like in 1997 if CON, LIB, SNP and PC formed an alliance (assume for now this is even possible) and all the votes perfectly transferred I do not believe LAB would win a majority.

[jaichind]

New Opinium poll

CON    47 (+2)
LAB     30 (+4)
LIB       8 (-3)
UKIP     7(-2)

CON+UKIP at 54 and LAB+LIB at 38.  Sort of fits my theory of CON+UKIP at 53-55 and LAB+LIB at 35-37 although there LAB+LIB seems to above this range. 

How the 2015 vote will splinter by party is also interesting.  I am surprised how much of the 2015 LIB vote will go CON this time.

[jaichind]

 U.K. general-election poll conducted by ICM shows 47% plan to vote Conservative; 28% for Labour, 9% for Liberal Democrats, and 8% for UKIP, according to The Sun.

[jaichind]

Survation for Stop Brexit Alliance (SBA)/Kensington Constituency Poll (25-27 Apr)
Poll 1
Con - 46% (-6)
Lab - 29% (-2)
Lib - 17% (+11)
Grn - 7% (+2)
UKIP - 1% (-4)
3% swing from Con to Lab

Poll 2
Con - 32% (-20)
SBA - 28% (+28)
Lab - 23% (-8)
Lib - 9% (+3)
Grn - 5% (N/C)
UKIP - 2% (-3)
24% swing from Con to SBA

Is this a new political party?

I think this is hypothetical.  I think for such a candidate to win the LIB has to step aside.

[jaichind]

Panelbase poll

CON       47   (-2)
LAB       30  (+3)
LIB        10  (nc)
UKIP        5 (nc)

[jaichind]

Tony Blair says he is returning to politics.  What does this mean? Will he try to capture the leadership of the LAB party after a diasterous election result and Corbyn pushed out?  I assume this not possible with him not being a MP.  If so will he, assuming the LABs get hammered in the election, form SDP Mark II and try to form an alliance with LIBs?

[jaichind]

BBC calculated implied national vote shares from the local elections are

CON  38%
LAB   27%
LIB   18%
UKIP   5%
Other 12%

But if 1983 and 1987 in which local and national election were held right after another are any guide most likely the CON vote will be several percentages above 38%



 

[jaichind]

Opinium



CON   46
LAB   30
LIB     9
UKIP   7

[jaichind]

Telegraph poll

CON 46 (+4), LAB 31 (nc), LIB 9 (-1), UKIP 8 (nc)

[jaichind]

Westminster voting intention:
Daily Mail: CON
The Sun: CON
Telegraph: CON
The Guardian: CON !!!
Via Guardian/ICM  (May 5-6)

Quite something

Wow. What was The Guardian rational for this?  Is it about Corybn or is it about backing May to get a good deal for UK in Brexit talks?  I assume Daily Express will be for CON this time instead of UKIP. 

[jaichind]

Some of these polls show it is totally possible that GB LAB vote might come close to the 31% it got in 2015 even though that sort of result will mean a significant loss of seats.  It seems with victory out of reach what Corybn should consider doing is to drive up LAB turnout in non-marginal seats to try to get to around 31% for the GB LAB vote.  If he does he can make an argument to stay on as LAB leader even with a large loss of number of seats.

[jaichind]

Wales poll, CON still ahead



CON: 41% (+1)
LAB: 35% (+5)
PC: 11% (-2)
LIB: 7% (-1)
UKIP: 4% (-2)
Others: 2% (-1)

[jaichind]

LAB shadow chancellor John McDonnell said there was “a lot to learn” from Karl Marx's Das Kapital.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/07/john-mcdonnell-refuses-rule-60-top-tax-rate-suggests-lot-learn/

[jaichind]

SNP vote
General election May 2015
Holyrood election May 2016
Local election May 2017

Not apples-to-apples since in the 2017 elections independents won 10% of first preference votes  while in 2015 and 2016 they were close to nil.

[jaichind]

Westminster voting intention:
CON: 49% (+3)
LAB: 27% (-1)
LDEM: 9% (-1)
UKIP: 6% (-2)
GRN: 3% (-1)
(ICM/Guardian 05 - 07 May)

Welsh Westminster voting intention:
CON: 41% (+1)
LAB: 35% (+5)
PC: 11% (-2)
LDEM: 7% (-1)
UKIP: 4% (-2)
(YouGov / 05 - 07 May)

From the same ICM poll.  If UKIP will only run candidates in some 100 seats and relevant only in a subset of that this seems to be a perfect storm brewing for a large vote share surge for CON.

[jaichind]

Survation

CON: 47% (+7)
LAB: 30% (+1)
LIB: 7% (-4)
UKIP: 5% (-6)
Green: 3% (+1)

[jaichind]

Scottish Greens to field fewer than ten candidates

https://stv.tv/news/politics/1388040-scottish-greens-to-field-fewer-than-ten-candidates/

[jaichind]

As many as 100 LAB MPs set to walk out, form their own breakaway group if Jeremy Corbyn stays on as a leader after a “Tory landslide,” Telegraph says, without saying where it got the information.

[jaichind]

I asked several people I know when I visit London about this whole fox hunting business.  No one is able to explain to me why is this such a controversial issue.  Is it related to animal rights?  If so then why is, animal testing, for example not something  that is a hot topic?

[jaichind]

My London seat projection model suggests that this is the current state of play in the capital, according to the recent YouGov poll:

Lab - 43 (-2)
Con - 30 (+3)
Lib - 0 (N/C)

Con Gains
Carshalton & Wallington (from Lib)
Dagenham & Rainham (from Lab)
Eltham (from Lab)
Enfield North (from Lab)
Ilford North (from Lab)

Lab Gains
Battersea (from Con)
Finchley & Golders Green (from Con)

For the LAB gains ones I assume you feel the large remain CON vote will defect to LAB and that any defections will go to LAB and not LIB ?

[jaichind]

I guess LAB is everywhere except for NI and Speaker. 

CON is everywhere except for Speaker and has some candidates in NI. 

Other than Speaker where else is LIB not contesting outside of NI ?

It seems UKIP and Green are contesting in Speaker's seat again.

Seats being contested by UKIP larger than I thought although I think some of them are in NI.

[jaichind]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/13/exclusive-telegraph-orb-poll-conservatives-lead-across-social/

Telegraph/ORB  poll

CON 46 (nc)
LAB  32 (+1)
LIB    8 (-1)
UKIP  7 (-1)