UK Local Elections, 4th May 2017

[jaichind]

What happened to the Corbyn youth vote that was going to turn out to save LAB ?

[jaichind]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/121fe0qAkHI3WtE4sHUev_tclmRcIZiTHInTs8nSgDCM/htmlview?sle=true#gid=8556568

Is a good link to track gain and loss matrix

[jaichind]

Wales does not look that bad so far for LAB.

[jaichind]

It seems a lot of UKIP candidates are running as independents this year so the UKIP vote share might be underestimated.

[jaichind]

I am surprised how poorly LIB is doing so far.  I thought relative to 2013 there should be a revival.  I guess the collapse of UKIP vote share to CON outweighed any gains in vote share they might have had.

[jaichind]

The Nuneaton LAB parliamentary candidate has lost his seat on Warwicks council and blames Corbyn for his defeat.

[jaichind]

If it weren't for the general election in 33 days, Corbyn would've resigned tonight. Absolutely shambolic from Labour. He should thank May for giving him an extra month drawing Leader of the Opposition salary.

Why would that be?  Corbyn could always use 2009 results as the benchmark for measuring his performance claim that he did just as well if not slightly better than Brown in 2009.

[jaichind]

Paul Nuttall 'If the price of Britain is a Tory advance after taking up this patriotic cause then it is a price UKIP is prepared to pay'

[jaichind]

In England LAB lost so far a net of 69 out of 229 seats.  At this rate it is on track to lose a net of around 169.

In Wales LAB lost so far a net of 90 out of 459.  At this rate it is on track to lose a net of around 113

[jaichind]

Corbyn talking point should be: In England I beat Brown from 2009, in Wales I beat Brown from 2008, and in Scotland ... well ... Brown is from Scotland you see ...

[jaichind]

BBC announces projected national share

CON 38% (+3)
LAB 27% (-2)
LIB 18% (+7)
UKIP 5% (-8)
Other 12% (0)

Change is from 2015

Overall not that bad of a result for LAB.  Just like 2016 local elections Corbyn has over-performed very low expectations

[jaichind]

In England LAB lost so far a net of 130 out of 433 seats.  At this rate it is on track to lose a net of around 167.

In Wales LAB lost so far a net of 99 out of 180.  At this rate it is on track to lose a net of around 113

In Scotland LAB lost so far a net of 58 out of 504.  At this rate it is on track to lose a net of around 112

[jaichind]

In England LAB lost so far a net of 138 out of 464 seats.  At this rate it is on track to lose a net of around 165.

In Wales LAB lost so far a net of 105 out of 520.  At this rate it is on track to lose a net of around 116

In Scotland LAB lost so far a net of 73 out of 231.  At this rate it is on track to lose a net of around 124

[jaichind]

@nickeardleybbc: Labour sources still think they'll finish ahead of Tories Scotland-wide

In terms of seats or first preference vote share ?

[jaichind]

@nickeardleybbc: Labour sources still think they'll finish ahead of Tories Scotland-wide

In terms of seats or first preference vote share ?

Doesn't specify; I'm guessing first preferences - as seat wise, I can't see Labour getting more than the Tories now.

Yep, that is why I asked the question.  If this is the case then this is another sign of anti-SNP tactical voting at play.

[jaichind]

It seems Wales is almost done with LAB losing 105 seats.  They are doing better than expected with polls earlier that seems to show that at least for the Westminster vote CON being tied or even ahead of LAB.

In England LAB lost so far a net of 140 out of 478 seats.  At this rate it is on track to lose a net of around 163.  The trend is in LAB's favor.

In Scotland LAB lost so far a net of 87 out of 259.  At this rate it is on track to lose a net of around 132.  The trend is not in LAB's favor.

[jaichind]

It is also interesting that LIB lost seats in all three regions (England, Scotland, Wales)

[jaichind]

Scotland first preference vote share.  CON gain a bunch from LAB since 2012.  SNP flat since 2012.





The drop in SNP support is overstated in the second chart since Independents got 10% of the first preference vote in 2017 and were near zil in 2015 and 2016.