Some interesting PV/EV differences (not counting Jackson/Adams). (user search)
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  Some interesting PV/EV differences (not counting Jackson/Adams). (search mode)
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Author Topic: Some interesting PV/EV differences (not counting Jackson/Adams).  (Read 1155 times)
jaichind
Atlas Star
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Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« on: November 20, 2016, 06:00:09 PM »

What is interesting is that 1876 1888 and 2000 a flip of one state would have shifted the election winner.  In 2016 no shift of any state would have given the election to Clinton (assuming MI goes to Trump.)
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #1 on: November 20, 2016, 06:18:34 PM »

And that's why we're going to have a hard time getting rid of the electoral college. The party that has only benefited from this system is not likely to want to do away with it. I think we'll need a Democrat to win the EC while losing the PV before more Republicans start considering getting rid of it.

There is an argument that JFK lost the popular vote in 1960 so in theory the GOP has in theory been a victim of the PV/EC split going against them.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/10/19/did_jfk_lose_the_popular_vote_115833.html
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #2 on: November 24, 2016, 05:33:59 PM »

It seems that Clinton is on track to win by 1.7%.  Since Trump won PA by at bit less than 1.2% then if we assume a national uniform swing Clinton would have to win by 2.9% in the PV to win the EC overall.  If this that means achieved Trump achieved the largest EC advantage relative to PV since 1948 where in theory Dewey could have won the EC if he kept Truman's PV margin to 3.6% assuming national uniform swing.  

This thread which I bookmarked a while ago contains the data

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=167153.0
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