At what point in the day do you think Hillary's team knew things were rough?

[jaichind]

I think in first signs must have started in the afternoon when turnout figures in various FL counties (like Duval which updates their data realtime) clearly was trending Trump.  Then when exit polls came out it initially it must have gotten their hopes up.  On paper the exit polls were positive for Clinton (Clinton approval at 44% and Trump approval at 37%) but then results by ethnic breakdown was problematic which was

GOP margin
White College Women: 2012: +6, 2016: -8
White Non-College Women: 2012: +20, 2016: +25
White College Men: 2012: +21, 2016: +11
White Non-College Men: 2012: +31, 2016: +47
Black voters: 2012 -87, 2016 -81
Latinos: 2012 -44, 2016 -41

Note that the real margins were later adjusted to be even more pro-Trump but even these numbers show that Trump is gaining relative to 2012 margins for Blacks and Latinos and mostly even for Whites which puts Trump about 3% behind Clinton so there is no blowout.  

Then results came in for IN.  Trump is overperforming Romney by significant margins.  They must have said, well that is because of Pence.  Then the same pattern for KY.  So it confirms there is clearly no Clinton blowout.

When FL then started to come it it was clear that the pattern of reporting results where the early votes should come in very strong for Clinton was not as strong as 2012 must have them worried that at best it is a tiny victory in FL.  And if FL is lost then so must be NC while IN KY results seems to confirm that OH and IA must be gone too.  So it must have dawned on them that then they must win PA and MI which was an unconformable place to be.  

Then as FL goes from bad to worse, OH looking like a blowout, MI comes in with some very bad starting numbers must have make them realize that they might have and perhaps likely have lost.

[jaichind]

Honestly, Trump's extremely strong numbers in Indiana early on should have been a strong clue.  You don't overperform Romney by 10 points in Indiana and not expect similar figures in Ohio, Michigan, etc.

I was thinking the same but thought it was because of Pence.  When I saw the same in KY then I knew Trump would at least be close.