India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat

[jaichind]

In TN Sasikala found guilty of corruption by the supreme court and will be going to jail.  She handpicked Palaniswami  to be the leader of the AIADMK legislative party and expelled TN caretaker CM Panneerselvam from AIADMK.  There does not seem to be a flood of pro-Sasikala MLAs flooding to join the Panneerselvam camp.  This could change once Sasikala is taken into custody.  AIADMK is headed for a vertical split and there could be mid-term elections in TN.   

[jaichind]

Next phase of UP elections voting tomorrow along with Uttarakhand.

Funny stories from this phase are

1) In Nakur of UP, the RLD candidate Ramkumar Kashyap decided to defect to BJP two days before voting claiming that he has been insulted by the leadership of the BJP.  It is too late to remove his name from the ballot so he has been campaigning against himself calling for his supporters to vote BJP.  At the same time RLD has come out calling Ramkumar Kashyap a traitor but still calling for voters to vote RLD which on paper the candidate is Ramkumar Kashyap himself.  So Ramkumar Kashyap campaign pitch is "vote against Ramkumar Kashyap" while RLD's campaign pitch is "punish the traitor Ramkumar Kashyap by voting for RLD candidate Ramkumar Kashyap".   In 2012 Nakur was a BSP vs INC(backed by RLD) battle with SP and BJP far behind while in 2014 Nakur was 3 way battle between BJP SP BSP with RLD far behind when the Jat vote went BJP. 

2) In Uttarakhand, it as rebels galore as out of 70 seats 13 BJP candidates are INC MLAs and 7 INC candidates are BJP MLAs.  In a couple of districts the BJP and INC candidates are repeating the 2012 faceoff but with party labels reversed.

[jaichind]

Voting over. UP phase 2 turnout around 66% which is a slight increase from 2012's turnout of 65.1%.  This number will most likely increase.

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Uttarakhand turnout around 68% which most likely will increase.  In 2012 turnout was 66.6%.

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In TN, Sasilkala is in jail but still remains the General Secretary of AIADMK.  Right before going to jail she appointed inducted her her nephew Dinakaran into AIADMK (he was expelled by jayalalitha back in 2011 and made Sasilkala produce a written promise to break off all contacts with him and the rest of her family) and then made Dinakaran the Vice General Secretary of AIADMK. 

WIth this Sasilkala's domination of AIADMK is complete so she has a proxy General Secretary running the party and a proxy CM Palaniswami being installed.  It seems the vast majority of the Sasilkala faction AIADMK are sticking with her and as such Palaniswami is being installed as CM of TN.  Last chance to stop Sasilkala remote control of TN in jail is a confidence vote in the TN assembly coming up soon.  The Panneerselvam faction seems so far only to have around 10 MLAs which would not be enough to stop the Sasilkala faction.  Not clear why the vast majority of the AIADMK MLAs are sticking by a Sasilkala who is in jail but unless there are significant defections in the trust vote Sasilkala will dominate TN politics from jail for a while.

If so then in restrospect the Panneerselvam rebellion was a huge mistake.  Had Panneerselvam stayed silent last week as Sasilkala was going to be installed as CM she would have been found guilty of corruption by the Supreme Court a couple of days later, then be stripped of her title of TN CM and then Panneerselvam would have been reinstalled as TN CM as a proxy CM for Sasilkala after which he would be able to work to break free of Sasilkala's control over time.  Instead now Palaniswami will be that proxy CM.

[jaichind]

In TN Sasilkala proxy CM Palaniswami wins trust vote 122-11.  



DMK INC and MUL MLAs walked out of the assembly chamber protesting how Palaniswami was installed.  The AIADMK speaker rejected a secret ballot proposal from DMK.  In the end the Panneerselvam rebel AIADMK faction could only muster 11 MLAs.   All of them will be expelled as MLAs for going against the AIADMK party whip.

Scene at TN assembly after DMK-INC protests tried to stall the vote and then later walked out of the assembly.



Again not clear why the vast majority of AIADMK would go along with an assistant of Jayalalitha as their leader and when Sasilkala was put in jail still stick together to back Sasilkala's proxy.  Part of it is the AIADMK cultural of treating their leadership as deity.  

How some AIADMK MLAs greet Jayalalitha.


Of course another reason is the fact that DMK-INC has significant base in TN and if AIADMK splinters that would only mean all of them will end up in the wilderness.

DMK leader Stalin is going on a fast to protest the lack of a secret ballot.

[jaichind]

Third Phase UP elections done.

Turnout was 61.16% while the 2014 LS turnout in these districts were  58.43% and in 2012 assembly elections were 59.96%.  It seems the districts with the largest increase in turnout are the Yadav strongholds. 



This phase contains a lot of SP strongholds and is the strongest phase for SP.  Main issue for SP are what impact the SP rebels that are aligned with the Shivpal Yadav faction have on the SP candidates.  If that could be kept to the minimum then SP-INC should end up winning most of the seats in this phase.

[jaichind]

SP dodged a bullet.  One of the candidates on  Shivpal Yadav's list of candidates that Akilish Yadav ended up rejecting was Aman Mani Tripathi for Nautanwa who was the SP candidate there in 2012 as well. Aman Mani Tripathi ended  running as an independent as a SP rebel.   

Aman Mani Tripathi with wife


Back in late 2016 Aman Mani Tripathi's wife was killed in a car accident.  Just today Aman Mani Tripathi was charged with murder of his wife and faking the car accident. 

[jaichind]

In Maharashtra, there will be civic elections on tuesday including the massive and critical BMC ( Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation) of Mumbai.  BJP-SHS alliance has ruled here since 1997.  BJP and SHS relationship has been strained since 2014 Maharashtra assembly elections when BJP and SHS contested separately but cobbled up a government led by the BJP.  Sensing that BJP is at risk of permanently overtaking SHS in Maharashtra, SHS broke off the alliance with the BJP for the BMC elections turning the election into a 3 way battle (BJP vs SHS vs INC) as NCP is very weak in Mumbai.

It seems very likely that if SHS does very well or very poorly in the BMC election that SHS will break off the alliance with the BJP both at the Maharashtra and at the center as well.

Right now the Maharashtra assembly seat breakdown are

BJP+        124 (RSPS allied with BJP)
SHS           63
MNS            1 (SHS splinter)
SHS rebel    2
INC           42
INC rebel     3
NCP+        45 (BVA allied with NCP)
NCP rebel    1
PWPI          3
AIMIM        2
BBM           1
CPM           1

If SHS pulls out of the alliance with the BJP there was talk that NCP might back a BJP government like it offered to after the 2014 Maharashtra assembly elections.  NCP has already produced a written document to the   Maharashtra governor that it will not back BJP no matter what.  If so SHS pulls out of the alliance then Maharashtra will be headed toward mid-term elections.

[jaichind]

Modi is coming under fire due to some communally & religiously discriminating comments against Muslims?

Modi. while campaigning in UP, indirectly attacked SP for directing government resources toward Muslims.  He said that "If village gets graveyard, should get cremation ground too?"  Of course Hindus cremate their dead while Muslims bury them.  INC and SP are up in arms and are going to complain to the ECI that Modi is making a communal appeal which in violation of election rules (a rule I very much oppose as it goes against free speech.) 

[jaichind]

In Mumbai, It is a fight to the finish between BJP and SHS.  It is actually pretty funny these two allies for over 25 year in Mumbai until last month are now throwing all sort of mud at each other with both sides accusing the other of massive corruption and SHS calling the Maharashtra BJP CM Devendra Fadnavis a liar in its main magazine even as BJP and SHS are still in theory allies at the Maharashtra state level as well as the center.

It seems the desperation on both sides has to do with with survival of the Maharashtra BJP CM Devendra Fadnavis's government.  It SHS does well relative to the BJP then it can withdraw support from the Fadnavis's government after the election which would fall with INC NCP and now SHS ranged against it.  It BJP does well relative to SHS then one can expect SHS to swallow its pride to accept its fate as junior partner to BJP or the SHS will split down the middle with a significant faction of SHS defecting to BJP to help BJP form a majority while SHS's profile shrink across Maharashtra. 

INC and NCP are contesting separately as well but NCP has very little support in Mumbai so in theory this is a great opportunity for INC to emerge as the winner.  Unfortunately INC is even more faction ridden than in previous years and AIMIM is making a big push this time in Mumbai and will most likely drag down INC across the board. 

[jaichind]

In Amethi, one of the seats that SP-INC never resolved, SP incumbent Gayatri Prasad is running for re-election and former INC MLA Ameeta Singh running as an independent is up against BJP's Rani Garima Sinh whose husband is the former husband of Ameeta Singh in a "wife vs wife battle."  In 2012  SP's Gayatri Prasad defeated INC incumbent Ameeta Singh/.   To add the the drama now SP candidate Gayatri Prasad



Has been charged with gange rape and attempted rape of a minor.  The BJP and BSP are making this a big issue to discredit SP.

[jaichind]

2012 Mumbai BMC elections.

SHS-BJP-RPA(A)
 SHS                     75
 BJP                      31
-------------------------------
                         106

NMS                    28

INC-NCP
 INC                    52
 NCP                   13
--------------------------------
                          65

Others                28

At least 19 out of the 28 Others backed SHS-BJP

This time RPI(A) is allied with BJP which is contesting separately from SHS while NCP and INC are contesting separately.  MNS is a lot weaker this time relative to 2012 while AIMIM is expected to cut into the INC vote.

Bookies expect SHS to exceed 100 seats while it expect both INC and BJP to be around 50 seats. 

[jaichind]

BMC election turnout was 55% highest in 25 years which should be good news for BJP and most likely bad news for SHS.

Axis-My India exit poll on BMC election

This poll has SHS-BJP polarization pulling into tactical voting votes from all other parties as well as independents

SHS          32%         89
BJP           32%         84
INC          16%          32
MNS           8%           6
NCP            4%           5
SP              3%           3
Others        5%           6

This type of seat distribution where SHS and BJP are neck-to-neck is just about the only seat distribution that could prevent a  collapse of the BJP-SHS alliance at the state and center level.

[jaichind]

Zee 24 Taas exit polls for BMC election

SHS       93
BJP        80
INC        29

Same exit poll has for Zilla (District) council elections across Maharashtra seat count to be

BJP       375
INC       298
NCP      285
SHS      259

Traditionally at the Zilla level INC and NCP tends to be stronger so this result as a very positive one for BJP if true.

[jaichind]

BMC election results out: Significant progress for BJP even as SHS edges out BJP for first place

SHS           84
BJP            82
INC            31
NCP             9
MNS            7
SP               6
MIM            3
ABS            1
Ind.            4

Results matches exit polls pretty well.  MNS collapsed from 2012.  Since BJP and SHS are contesting separately just like INC and NCP a lot of independents from 2012 contested in one of these 4 parties and as a result independent winners went down a lot from 2012.  INC and NCP could have saved itself from a rout had they formed a INC-NCP-SP alliance but as it was they both took losses despite the SHS-BJP split.

There does not seem to be any alternative to SHS and BJP forming an alliance again as there is no way INC SP or MIM joining either bloc.  In theory NCP or NMS could join BJP but that is unlikely and would not be enough anyway.  The battle now is which bloc, SHS or BJP, can get enough independents and perhaps other parties on its side so they can claim the larger bloc of the two and demand the position of mayor.  Both parties are already trying to woo the 4 independents and ABS (which is a mafia dominated SHS splinter.)

In the rest of Maharashtra municipal elections the story is the same. SHS-BJP split enough pushed INC and NCP votes toward SHS and BJP and the lack of INC-NCP alliance means that SHS and BJP both gain seats across the board, especially BJP.

[jaichind]

UP election phase 4 just completed.  Turnout is for now 60.37% whereas in 2012 these district turnout was at 60.20%.  A good part of Phase 4 in UP is Bundelkhand which is one of the most backward regions of UP.  Here SP is pretty weak but INC is relatively strong along with BSP.  So here it will be BJP vs INC vs BSP.

[jaichind]

The reports from the ground in UP is that in Phase 3 which have a lot of SP strongholds there was a swing away from SP due to anti-incumbency as well as the impact of the SP civil war.  There is a view that this might be a trend that could carry over to the other phases.

As a result whereas bookies had SP-INC at 220 seats and BJP at 97 a couple of weeks ago, now the odds are SP-INC 150 and BJP 160 seats.  BSP odds are at around 70 seats the entire time.  Historically BSP tends to be underrated so an estimation of BSP at 70 seats is actually quite impressive for BSP and ominous for SP-INC as that means the Muslim vote could be split between SP-INC and BSP which is a pre-condition for a BJP victory.

[jaichind]

NDTV analysis of UP

First they talk about the BJP 2014 surge and doing the breakdown by assembly segments



They point out the 2014 BJP surge was based on a bunch of one-off factors which are based on surge in BJP support with Jats, Upper Castes and non-Jatav Dalits many of which will not take place in 2017


They then used the 2014 results to map out a vote share-to-seats map


They point out core votes for each party


They focused on the Muslim vote on how it is more urban, it swung against BJP in 2014, and that higher concentration of Muslims in certain districts provokes Hindu consolidation, least in 2014




It then points out that communal voting takes places in USA as well

[jaichind]

In BMC where the results are

SHS           84
BJP            82
INC            31
NCP             9
MNS            7
SP               6
MIM            3
ABS            1
Ind.            4

The 4 independents seems to have backed SHS (some will actually just join SHS since 3 of them are SHS rebels anyway).  

As the largest party SHS has first shot at winning a vote for mayor.  SHS is now to get INC support arguing that 1) INC should want to block BJP despite any ideological differences  between INC and SHS.  2) SHS has backed INC for mayor of BMC back in the 1980s  3) SHS actually backed the INC Prez candidate for India in 2007 and 2012 breaking ranks with BJP.  INC seems to be split on this.  Some are ruling it out, others would demand SHS break their alliance with the BJP at the Maharashtra and all India level first and while even others are open to abstaining in the vote for mayor giving the SHS a shot a roping in ABS NCP NMS or SP, or at least getting them to abstain.

One way for SHS to win is to pretty much a) Get ABS to back it b) Get NCP NMS SP and INC to all abstain since each one of them have reasons to oppose BJP even more c) MIM will vote against SHS just like BJP but SHS with 88 plus ABS will be able to win.  The weakest link in this list would be NCP who might have more reasons to oppose SHS than BJP since SHS like NCP is really a Maharashtra party so their relative relationships tends to be more zero sum.

[jaichind]

In the  Maharashtra rural 25 Zilla Parishads elections the seat count by party are

BJP    406
NCP   360
INC    309
SHS   271

In 2012 it was

NCP   511
INC    419
SHS   243
BJP    165

Just like in the municipals elections there is a Maratha consolidation behind SHS while there are non-Maratha Hindu (Gujarati and Hindus from other states) consolidation behind BJP

[jaichind]

UP 5th phase voting in progress.  Included are Rahul Gandhi district of Amethi many of which will see INC-SP friendly fights.  SP did very well here in 2012 and will be playing defense against the BJP surge.

[jaichind]

Looking through the results of BMC one finds the BJP surge was based on the consolidation of Gujarati and North Indian votes along with some Marathi votes brought along  by various Marathi leaders that BJP inducted into the BJP for this election. One of the reason SHS was able to keep up was the consolidation of the remaining Marathi vote away from INC and NCP toward SHS.  What also helped SHS was, ironically, the Muslim vote which voted tactically to defeat BJP and then for, on paper, the more Hindu extremists SHS.

This voting pattern is the culmination of trends that finally pulled BJP and SHS apart.  It really started 10 years ago when MNS split from SHS. MNS strived to outflank SHS by being more extremist on its anti-Muslim plank as well as go after non-Marathi (like Gujaratis and North Indians.)  SHS had to adjust its position closer to MNS to avoid its urban Marathi based being taken over by MNS.  Over time this caused a problem for BJP-SHS relationships since SHS is a Maharashtra regional party while BJP has national aspirations and has to cater to Gujarati in Gujarat and North Indians in the Hindu heartland of UP and Bihar.  This finally led to a fracture between BJP and SHS in 2014 assembly elections.  But as SHS focused on Marathi mobilization to counter BJP in a fight about native sons of Maharashtra vs outsiders its position on Muslims subtly changed.  Muslims who recently migrated to Maharashtra  recently for sure would still be targeted but Muslims that have been in Maharashtra for generations would actually not be targeted by SHS relative to North Indians.  The resulting communal coalitions gives us the results we observed in the BMC election.

[jaichind]

It seems that in Maharashtra the NCP has been shocked by the municipal and rural  Zilla Parishads results  into reviewing its break with INC in Maharashtra.  NCP now is proposing an across the board alliance with INC to counter the growing power of BJP and SHS.  INC seems to be taking its time since SHS is also sending out feelers to INC for an tactical alliance in BMC and perhaps in other parts of Maharashtra.  The next Maharashtra assembly election might be BJP vs SHS vs INC-NCP or BJP vs SHS-INC (tactial) vs NCP   or even BJP-NCP (tactical) vs SHS-INC (tactical).

[jaichind]

In BMC, it seems when it comes to SHS's desire for an alliance with INC in to elect a SHS mayor, INC's position is to make a decision last minute to vote against, for or abstain the SHS candidate for mayor.  The reason is the election for BMC mayor is right after all the UP elections are done.  INC feels that a vote to abstain or for SHS would lose INC votes in UP for Hindus and Muslims alike given the hostility between SHS in Maharashtra and North Indians (Hindus and Muslims.)  The inclination for INC in BMC is to at least abstain just to make sure BJP is locked out.  But INC can only do it after all the votes in UP are cast.