Mexican Elections 2017-18

[jaichind]

Massive Caller did a poll for the Senate race for 2018



It came up with

                                2 seats for           1 seat for                     
                             first place state     second place state         PR        Total
PAN-PRD-MC               34                          8                           14         56
MORENA-PT-PES          26                        13                           13         52
PRI-PVEM-PANAL           4                        11                            5          20

Which means PAN-PRD-MC will come in first in 17 states, MORENA-PT-PES in 13 states and PRI-PVEM-PANAL 2. 

These results are a complete disaster for PRI.  Even in the 2006 PRI meltdown PRI-PVEM managed 36 seats since it was Madrazo that saw his vote collapse while the fall in the PRI party vote dipped but by nowhere as much.  This time around it seems more about the collapse of the PRI brand.   

The PR vote is telling.  In 2006 it was PAN 11 PRI-PVEM 10 PRD-PT-MC 10 PANAL 1.  For PRI-PVEM-PANAL to be reduced to 5 seats in PR seems to imply the vote shares for the 3 blocs will be something like PAN-PRD-MC 37%-38% MORENA-PT-PES 37%-38% PRI-PVEM-PANAL 21%-22% which means PRI-PVEM-PANAL would be reduced to Madrazo 2006 levels of support if this poll is accurate.  How can the great PRI machine be reduced to this?

[jaichind]

CEDE poll has Meade very much in the game



AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)       33
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)     30
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)           25
Zavala (PAN rebel)                8
El Bronco                              2


On the topic of tactical voting I think the  Consulta Mitofsky poll from a couple of weeks ago asked "who do you believe will win" has it a 3 way tie



Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)            25.6
AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)       25.0
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)     23.7
Zavala (PAN rebel)                 2.9
El Bronco                              1.3

[jaichind]

Yeah, Anaya is playing it well, and Meade has done everything wrong. Pretty much the only people who think he still has a chance work for the government at this point. Anaya is slowly but surely emerging as the anti-AMLO in this race. The problem for him is that at this point, among those who respond to this question, he is losing one-on-one to AMLO 38% to 46% - though this is much closer than either of them is demolishing Meade one-on-one. 

I assume this is the poll you are talking about.  Wow it looks pretty bad how much Meade is beaten by one-on-one.  I guess Meade has to be happy the Mexico election system is not like the French system.

[jaichind]

El Heraldo Survey which was done in Dec 2017



has

AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)       25
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)     22
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)           20

[jaichind]

For the 2018 election INE also did redistricting of the 300 lower house district seats.  The breakdown are

Aguascalientes         3 ->  3
Baja California         8 ->  8
Baja California Sur   2 ->  2
Campeche               2 ->  2
Coahuila                  7 ->  7
Colima                    2  ->  2
Chiapas                12  -> 13 (a backward area gaining seats, I guess higher birthrate)
Chihuahua              9  ->  9
Mexico City           27  -> 24 (I am surprised that Mexico city has slower population growth)
Durango                4   ->  4
Guanajuato           14  -> 15
Guerrero                9  ->   9
Hidalgo                  7  ->   7
Jalisco                 19  ->  20
México                 40 ->  41
Michoacán           12  ->  12
Morelos                5  ->    5
Nayarit                 3  ->    3
Nuevo León         12  ->  12
Oaxaca               11   -> 10
Puebla                16  ->  15
Querétaro             4  ->    5
Quintana Roo        3   ->   4
San Luis Potosí     7   ->    7
Sinaloa                8   ->    7
Sonora                7   ->    7
Tabasco               6   ->    6
Tamaulipas          8    ->   9
Tlaxcala              3    ->   3
Veracruz           21    ->  20
Yucatán              5    ->   5
Zacatecas           4    ->   4

[jaichind]

It seems the MORENA PT PES alliance will divide up the 300 Lowe House seats MORENA 150 PT 745 PES 75.  It seems AMLO is prioritizing getting PT and PES to back him for Prez race than seats in the lower house.  MORENA strength is clearly greater than the sum of PT and PES.

The 150-75-75 division does not, in fact, much matter. There are easily 150 districts where MORENA has exactly zero chance.  Even if they give some 10 non-impossible seats to PT, they can keep 140 for themselves. The PES seats will all be duds - the party leadership will get a seat or two high on the PR lists and will be happy about that.

A glance at the MORENA-PT-PES agreement http://repositoriodocumental.ine.mx/xmlui/bitstream/handle/123456789/94367/CG2ex201712-22-rp-5-2-a1.pdf

seems to indcate that this was not the case.  It seems MORENA-PT-PES mostly divided up the seats on a 2-1-1 basis pro rated across the board. 

If one takes the 2015 MORENA vote share performance and look at large states where MORENA did well (Mexico City, Oaxaca, and Veracruz) it seems the breakdown are

Mexico City - MORENA 11, PT 7, PES 6
Oaxaca - MORENA 4, PT 3, PES 3
Veracruz - MORENA 10, PT 4, PES 6

If then we look at the state that MORENA did poorly in 2015 (Guanajuato, Jalisco, Michoacán, and Nuevo León) the breakdown are

Guanajuato - MORENA 10, PT 2, PES 3
Jalisco - MORENA 10, PT 4, PES 6
Michoacán - MORENA 6, PT 4, PES 2
Nuevo León - MORENA 3, PT 5, PES 4

So other than Nuevo León  there seems little correlation between strong MORENA states vs weak MORENA states.   In fact I am very surprised at the distribution in Mexico City where MORENA-PT-PES is poised to sweep the state and yet MORENA yield 13 out of 24 seats to PT-PES.  One argue that MORENA perhaps gave away seats within each of these states where MORENA are weaker in.  A superfical glance does not seem to indicate this and one can argue that Mexico City MORENA is strong across the board and yet gave away 13 out of 24 seats whereas in Guanajuato MORENA is weak across the board yet MORENA took on 10 out of 15 seats all of which seems unwinnable for MORENA-PT-PES.

[jaichind]

BTW, I have not been watching closely, but there have been tensions between PVEM and PRI, ostenstibly over Chiapas. Rats?

I do not know much but my understanding it is about the 2018 Chiapas governor race.  PRI insists that as per agreement the PRI-PVEM-PANAL governor candidate will be a PRI candidate.  A rebel faction within PVEM insist that PVEM should run its own candidate in a "friendly contest" with PRI.

Of course the PRI-PVEM-PANAL coalition has already be registered

"Todos por Chiapas"


which includes local dummy parties PCU(Partido Chiapas Unido) and PMC(Partido Mover a Chiapas) which I suspect are the creation of the PVEM governor to split the opposition vote.

Anyway I think PRI and PVEM will continue but them do more horse trading on who is the candidate.

[jaichind]

Mexico City population has been stationary for a very long time now. No surprise there whatsoever.

Overall, good for PAN - much of the growth is concentrated in states they govern (Guanajuato, Queretaro, Quintana Roo, Tamaulipas), or where they are relatively strong (Jalisco).

I agree.  Overall the new seat distribution should benefit PAN while MORENA loses with Mexico City going down by 3 seats.

[jaichind]

Looking at the PAN-PRD-MC seat sharing agreement shows that the distribution of seats are more along the lines of where the different parties are strong.

http://repositoriodocumental.ine.mx/xmlui/bitstream/handle/123456789/94343/CG2ex201712-22-rp-5.1-a1.pdf

In Chihuahua  where PAN is strong it is PAN 7, PRD 1, MC 1
In Baja California where PAN is strong it is PAN 6, PRD 1, MC 1
In Mexico where PRD is strong but with some pockets of PAN strength it is PRD 14, PRD 7, MC 3
In Guanajuato where it is the strongest PAN state in Mexico it is PAN 12, PRD 2, MC 1
In Guerrero where PRD is strong it is PAN 1, PRD 6, MC 2
In Jalisco where MC is strong it is PAN 4, PRD 2, MC 14 - PAN used to be strong here as well and I am surprised that PAN would pretty much yield this state to MC
In Oaxaca where PRD is strong it is PAN 3, PRD 6, MC 1
In Puebla where PAN is strong it is PAN 10, PRD 3, MC 2
In Tamaulipas where PAN is strong it is PAN 7, PRD 1, MC 1
In Veracruz where PAN has been getting stronger recently it is PAN 10, PRD 5, MC 5
In Mexico where PRD is a bit stronger than PAN it is PAN 15, PRD 19, MC 7

[jaichind]

https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/ex-mayor-ebrard-joins-amlo-campaign-team/

Looks like former head of Mexico City after AMLO Marcelo Ebrard who left PRD and joined up with MC a few years back has joined the AMLO campaign.

[jaichind]

El Financiero poll



AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)       38
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)           27
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)     22
Zavala (PAN rebel)                7
El Bronco                              3
Piter(PRD rebel)                    3

There seems to be talks of an all rebel alliance (Zavala, El Bronco, Piter) which is mostly floated by Piter to keep himself relevant.

Good news for Anaya is that he has, for now, eliminated Zavala as the anti-AMLO so he has to concentrate his fire on Meade and then once Meade is below 20 can then run himself as the anti-AMLO.  Not clear he will win even then but that is his path to victory.

All the main contenders are gaining in terms of name recognition
 

ALMO has the most positive net approval ratings


Meade's high negatives means his path to victory has to be a close 3 way race and with Zavala taking a chunk of the anti-PRI vote.

[jaichind]

Same El Financiero poll has data on vote for Lower House and Senate by party where it is a lot closer



If you add up the votes by alliance you get

Lower House
MORENA-PT-PES      33
PRI-PVEM-PANAL     29
PAN-PRD-MC           29

Senate
MORENA-PT-PES      32
PRI-PVEM-PANAL     30
PAN-PRD-MC           29

Which comes out to a 3 way tie.  I guess a lot of marginal PRI and PRD voters are voting AMLO for Prez but voting with their party in the Congressional vote.

[jaichind]

Reuters reports that Parametria poll has AMLO also ahead

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-election/mexican-leftist-holds-double-digit-lead-in-presidential-race-poll-idUSKBN1FR0QG

AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)       34
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)           23
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)     18
Zavala (PAN rebel)                7
El Bronco                              2
Piter(PRD rebel)                    2

[jaichind]

Thanks, Jaichind, for your always helpful and wonderful supply of charts and micro-data.  

Do you think it also possible that marginal PRI and PRD voters are in reality paying pollsters lip service to the phenomenon-de-jour which is AMLO, joining in his adulation carnival, then will, in the end, fall-in with the established party (and party leader) they've been stubbornly voting for all of their lives?

I do not know too much at the ground level. I would imagine if Meade is a credible candidate on the stump and we get closer to the election AND Meade is not too far behind in the polls, that the PRI machine can get PRI voters to go back to Meade.  Anaya on the other hand risks losing the PRD vote due to ideological differences and that really comes down to are the PRD grassroots willing to head their PRD central leadership to vote Anaya.

BTW for comparison purposes If you took the 2015 Lower House election results and then replicate the alliances for 2018 you get

Lower House
MORENA-PT-PES      15.31
PRI-PVEM-PANAL     41.88
PAN-PRD-MC             42.20

I counted PH as part of the PAN-PRD-MC which has been defunct since 2015 as part of PAN-PRD-MC as it was really a PAN splinter and there were rumors that PH was the creation of ex-PAN president Calderón, husband of Zavala.  These numbers are normalized for the NULL and it shows the pro-MORENA swing relative to 2015 since now it is a 3 way tie for Lower House vote.  AMLO polls even better than MORENA.

[jaichind]

SDP poll (which seems have a historical pro-MORENA lean) has AMLO way ahead but Meade in second place


AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)       39.4 (+0.3)
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)     25.7 (-0.4)
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)           19.5 (+1.8  )
Zavala (PAN rebel)                7.2 (-0.7)
El Bronco                              2.6 (-0.3)
Piter(PRD rebel)                    1.4

But I guess follows the other poll trends of Anaya gaining.

[jaichind]

An El País poll of polls has AMLO ahead with Anaya and Meade in a close race for second



AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)       36.8
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)           27.4
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)     24.7
Zavala (PAN rebel)                6.8
El Bronco                              2.8

A poll of polls for party support has better news for Meade and Anaya since it shows that the PAN-PRD-MC bloc and PRI-PVEM-PANAL are still bigger than the MORENA-PT-PES although the gap has been closing fast last year.


This should give some hope to Meade and to some extent Anaya that once the election campaigning starts and the race gets more partisan and their core supporters will swing back.  Not sure this will help Anaya as much as I think a good part of the PRD vote will move to AMLO and stay there.

[jaichind]

Yeah, actually, it is a bit surprising. Of course, within Mexico City the only hopeless district (15th, Benito Juarez) went to PES, but then the difficult Miguel Hidalgo district goes to Morena. I Guanajuato Morena did take the ony district where they stand any chance whatsoever (Valle de Santiago), but also a lot of hopeless ones. Morena also takes several Nezahualcoyotl districts - even though this is one of the last real pockets of PRD strength (ok, perhaps they are just trying to destroy PRD and think they can). PT, though, is stuck with the PRIista Atlacomulco and likely PANista Naucalpan. But nothing is that clear.

Of course, it remains to see who are the actual candidates. PES does not have many people to staff the lists. It could well be that they will simply take obradorista guys who would have otherwise run as Morena, and the only think PESista or PTista about the candidates would be the money that the vote for them will send.

I thought about this some more.  One theory I have about why AMLO is so generous is the need to avoid the 8% rule.  If it becomes a close 3 way race between the 3 blocs a small vote share advantage could translate into a large advantage in the FPTP seats.  If so there is a chance that the total MORENA-PT-PES seat count could be constrained by the 8% rule.  But if a large number of FPTP winners have the party label of PT or PES, AMLO get get around this.

Just to game it out.  Say things go well for AMLO and MORENA-PT-PES wins 38% of the non-null PR vote (MORENA 30% PT 4% PES 4%) and 160 out of 300 FPTP seats.  

If AMLO allocated seats according to relative strength of the 3 parties then the 160 winners will most likely be (140 MORENA 10 PT 10 PES.)  But then MORENA will hit the 8% rule since

30%+8% = 38% * 500 seats = 190 seats.  But MORENA would have won 140 seats + (30%*200) = 200 seats of which 10 would be taken away.

Now if we go with the current distribution of seats the 160 winners would be (80 MORENA 40 PT 40 PES) and MORENA is way below the 8% rule cap.  Now doing the 8% rule on PES or PT would yield.

4%+8% = 12% * 500 = 60 seats.  PT or PES would have won 40 + (4%*200) = 48 seats which is also below the 8% rule.

Which means  MORENA-PT-PES  would win a total of 236 out of 500 seats and the getting some PRD or MC defectors after the election could fetch AMLO a majority in the Lower House.

[jaichind]

It seems the PAN-PRD-MC candidate for governor of  Veracruz is Miguel Ángel Yunes Márquez


Who is the son of current PAN governor Miguel Ángel Yunes Linares

[jaichind]

El Economista poll with front runners gaining against the weaker candidates



AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)       27.1 (+3.5)
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)           22.3 (+1.0)
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)     18.0 (-0.2)
Ind                                       8.0 (-2.0)  (Zavala, El Bronco,Piter)


More people now believe that AMLO will win


AMLO stronger with higher educated voters, Meade stronger with low educated voters.  Sort of goes against the narrative of AMLO as populist.




Shift of the 2012 Prez vote.  It seems most of the 2012 PRD vote has go over to AMLO while the 2012 PRI vote see some losses to both AMLO and Anaya.

[jaichind]

El Reforma poll



AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)       33  (+2)
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)           25 (+6)
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)     14  (-3)
Zavala (PAN rebel)                 4 (-4)
El Bronco                              2 (--)

Anti-AMLO vote consolidating around Anaya.  Meade has to reverse this or else he is toast.
 

[jaichind]

Markets Ignore Radical Leftist Mounting Big Lead in Mexico Polls

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-16/markets-ignore-radical-leftist-mounting-big-lead-in-mexico-polls?utm_source=google&utm_medium=bd&cmpId=google

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[jaichind]

The Mexico "pre-campaign" period, a period theoretically to be used for party primaries to choose their candidates, has ended.  Of course this entire period everyone knew who the various party candidates were going to be.  The idea of this "pre-campaign" charade is for all the candidates (known as pre-candidates) to get around campaign spending limits by spending on PR for their "primary" when in reality it is just for the general election campaign.

Now this period is over and AMLO, Anaya, and Meade having become official candidates of MORENA-PT-PES, PAN-PRD-MC, and PRI-PVEM-PANAL we can move on to the real election campaign which does not start, officially, until March 30th.

[jaichind]

Latest Reuters reports on Parametria poll has AMLO extending lead as Anaya and Meade loses ground to Zavala and El Bronco.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-election-exclusive/exclusive-mexico-left-wing-candidates-lead-widens-as-rivals-bicker-poll-idUSKCN1GJ0IK?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=twitter
 
AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)       35 (+1)
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)           21 (-2)
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)     16 (-2)
Zavala (PAN rebel)               10 (+3)
El Bronco                              5 (+3)

[jaichind]

Ipsos poll has AMLO way ahead

AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)       36.3
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)     22.7
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)           15.1
Zavala (PAN rebel)                2.1
El Bronco                              1.1
Piter(PRD rebel)                    0.4

[jaichind]

Massive Caller poll for  Veracruz governor has MORENA in neck-to-neck race with PRI

MORENA-PES-PT     26.8
PRI-PVEM               26.1
PAN-PRD-MC          20.7