U.S. Economy Grew at 1% Rate in Fourth Quarter

[jaichind]

Speaking of the housing crisis of 2008-2009 we have this from late last year

Obama Makes New Push for Minority Mortgages

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/09/24/obama-makes-new-push-minority-mortgages/

You cannot have it both ways. Either credit is rationed through the market based on credit risk in which case it will be directed disproportionately away from URM or you have a moral hazard of the government picking up the bill and pushing the credit risk to the taxpayers. 

[jaichind]

Here comes the recession

Why makes you say that?  While the post 2008 recession have and continues to be very weak and we will see fairly weak growth this and next year I do not see any signs of downturn in turns of negative growth.  It will be a period of very low growth and very low inflation with fairly static wages.  For a majority of the economic population it might almost be the same as a recession but that does not actually mean negative economic growth is coming anytime soon in my view.

[jaichind]

Actually this just came in

Junk Risk Spikes as Recession Odds at Post-Crisis High, UBS Says
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-07/junk-risk-spikes-as-recession-odds-at-post-crisis-high-ubs-says

UBS estimates there is a 34% chance of a recession by the first quarter of 2017.  The 2016 Presidency will most likely be a poison chalice. 

[jaichind]

Actually this just came in

Junk Risk Spikes as Recession Odds at Post-Crisis High, UBS Says
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-07/junk-risk-spikes-as-recession-odds-at-post-crisis-high-ubs-says

UBS estimates there is a 34% chance of a recession by the first quarter of 2017.  The 2016 Presidency will most likely be a poison chalice. 

Only if it is a lengthy recession.  As it is, if a recession starts in the fourth quarter of this year, it won't affect the election but it will allow the incoming President and Congress to deflect blame.

Perhaps. At this stage for a recession to technically start in Q4 the stock market would have to start falling in the next couple of months.  As for blame it would depends on when the general population feel the economic pain of a recession.  Back in 2007-2009 the market peaked in Oct 2007 and at the technical level the recession started in Q1 2008 although the pain of the recession did begin to be felt until in Q3 2008, in dramatic fashion.

The inflation swap traders seems to also have priced in an economic slowdown if not recession of some sort to in place by end of 2017.  The consensus of various economists working at financial institutions has GDP growth at around 1.9% in 2016, 2.3% in 2017, and 2.3% in 2018 with inflation at 1.3% in 2016, 2.3% in 2017 and, 2.3% in 2018.  The inflation swap traders seems to agree with the 2016 and 2017 inflation numbers but price in an inflation of around 1.5% for 2018.  The only real reason why they will price it this way is that they assume there will be a significant economic slowdown in 2017 so that by 2018 overall demand is low enough that inflation will fall below the Fed target of 2.0%.  The variosu economists does not seem to agree.  We will see by end of 2017 who is right.

[jaichind]

Very shameful!  This is the first administration to not see a quarter of growth above 3%.  

In Q3 of 2014 the economy grew at a rate of 3.5% you stupid troll.

I think he means real GDP YOY.  In Q3 2014 the Constant Dollar GDP YOY SA growth was 2.9%.  To be fair to the Obama administration in Q3 2010 Constant Dollar GDP YOY SA growth was 3.1%.  But yes, I think that the highest Constant Dollar GDP YOY SA growth of this administration is easily the lowest by far of all administrations since 1948 when the USA even started to keep consistent quarterly GDP growth figures.