Bolivian constitutional referendum, February 21, 2016

[jaichind]

Ipsos exit poll has NO winning 52-48.  Looks like it will be close but No more likely or not won. 

[jaichind]

(Bloomberg) -- Of 146,513 valid votes counted so far, 66% vote no, 34% vote yes, in referendum on whether to amend constitution to allow President Evo Morales to seek another term, electoral commission says in partial result published on its website.

Of course this is mostly urban areas.  Evo's rural strongholds mostly did not report in votes yet.

[jaichind]

ATB television projects No winning 52.3 to 47.7.  Unitel television gave the No vote winning 51 to 49.

[jaichind]

I am surprised it is as close as what the various exit polls says it is.  Given that natural prices has fallen a lot recently plus that business about Evo's illegitimate child I would think No would win by mile.  I guess if these projections are true then Evo still retains significant support. 

[jaichind]

Pando at No winning 59.5 to 40.5 should be ominous to Evo.    That should be a Evo stronghold.  It seems that No will win by a landslide.  Evo would need Beni to perform well for Yes and hope that Santa Cruz numbers turns around to avoid a total rout.  

[jaichind]

I am surprised it is as close as what the various exit polls says it is.  Given that natural prices has fallen a lot recently plus that business about Evo's illegitimate child I would think No would win by mile.  I guess if these projections are true then Evo still retains significant support. 

The prices has fallen, but Bolivia is not doing anywhere as bad as Venezuela. The government has been maintaining sensible "macroeconomic" stance, so, for the moment, it is not doing too badly. That is why, probably, they wanted a referendum now. It is not the price crash - it is more the general sense of being tired of the regime.

I see, I just assumed a lot of the subsidies would have been reduced since the money coming in from natural gas exports would have been reduced.

[jaichind]

Feb. 22 (AFP) -- Bolivia VP says vote on Morales re-election in a 'dead heat,' too soon to call

[jaichind]

It is interesting that so far Santa Cruz is a lot worse for Yes than La Paz where one would expect the opposite.  I guess this will change as more results comes in.

[jaichind]

It is interesting that so far Santa Cruz is a lot worse for Yes than La Paz where one would expect the opposite.  I guess this will change as more results comes in.

Why? Santa Cruz is THE opposition stronghold. La Paz is anything but.

Oops, you are right.  I got the partisan alignments of regions mixed up for a while.

[jaichind]

8281 out of 30367 precincts reporting

36.49% Yes 63.51% No.

[jaichind]

From FT

"With 72.5 per cent of votes counted, Bolivia’s state-run news agency reported that preliminary official results show the “no” vote against the constitutional amendment to allow the president to run for a fourth term in 2019 secured 56.5 per cent, against 43.2 per in favour."

If true, for Yes to win then the rest of the vote must come in around 68-32 for Yes.  This seems like an uphill climb.  The Yes-No split from what is on the official website to the number above seems to be 47.2-52.8.

[jaichind]

Once again it is off. It seems they are changing the reporting format for some reason. Hopefully, just a minor hiccup.

Is Manuel Bartlett in charge of the election results system/website ?

[jaichind]

Feb. 22 (AFP) -- Bolivia's Morales promises to respect referendum result

-> I guess he is sort of conceding

[jaichind]

When I try http://resultados2016.oep.org.bo/ it always seem to be down.  Is there another site I should be using?  This count speed is absurd.  Only place worst than this is my home county of Westchester.

[jaichind]

Around 41% of the results in.  No winning 59.05 to 40.95.

[jaichind]

This guys must us the same company that built the Obamacare websites. 

[jaichind]

With 78% of the precincts in it is 53.89% vs 46.11% for No.

[jaichind]

Once you include Foreign precincts it is 77.4% of precincts counted it is 53.99% vs 46.01%. If one extrapolates existing regional results it will end up being 54.18% vs 45.82%.  So Evo has to hope that in all regions the rural areas are not the ones being counted yet or else he will fall short for sure.

[jaichind]

From FT

"With 72.5 per cent of votes counted, Bolivia’s state-run news agency reported that preliminary official results show the “no” vote against the constitutional amendment to allow the president to run for a fourth term in 2019 secured 56.5 per cent, against 43.2 per in favour."

If true, for Yes to win then the rest of the vote must come in around 68-32 for Yes.  This seems like an uphill climb.  The Yes-No split from what is on the official website to the number above seems to be 47.2-52.8.

Now that 77% of the votes are in the results seems more positive for Evo than the FT report indicated a day ago.  Still most likely he will not make it.

[jaichind]

From FT

"With more than 85 per cent of votes counted in Sunday’s referendum, preliminary official results show that 53.3 per cent voted against a constitutional amendment to allow the president to run for a fourth term in 2019, while 46.7 per cent voted in favour."

[jaichind]

So RIP Evo?

I do not see how he could win.  Of course this means he has to work on grooming a successor for 2019. 

[jaichind]

Based on these numbers and trends it will be Yes 47 No 53.  Of course the remaining precients could be more rural and more pro-Evo but Yes will need to win around 71.5% of the outstanding vote to win, which is pretty much impossible.

[jaichind]

(Bloomberg) -- President Evo Morales losing by 52.39% vs 47.61% in referendum on whether to allow him to seek another term, electoral commission says on its website.
4.95m votes counted out of 6.24m registered voters
There were 5.69m voters registered at the voting stations that have already been counted
Valid votes total 4.71m

[jaichind]

If we extrapolate from existing results it should be 47.9 vs 51.1, but the trend seems to be that the more rural precients are the ones outstanding which are much more pro-Evo.  Anyway, Evo must gain around 78.7% of remaining votes to win.  Again, seems very unlikely.

[jaichind]

If we extrapolate from existing results it should be 47.9 vs 51.1, but the trend seems to be that the more rural precients are the ones outstanding which are much more pro-Evo.  Anyway, Evo must gain around 78.7% of remaining votes to win.  Again, seems very unlikely.

I would be more comfortable if the full reporting system were up. The problem is: it is not. These are the places were the ballots can be stuffed.

Well any mathematical analysis does not work if they are going to pull what Landslide Lyndon did back in 1948 which is to wait for almost the results to come in and they release whatever result is needed to win.