Mexican state elections 2016

[jaichind]

Colima voted yesterday: the rerun of 2015, after being annulled by courts. PRI candidate confirmed his victory. Formally, according to PREP, it is

Ignacio Peralta (PRI/PVEM/PT/Panal) 43.24%
Jorge Luis Preciado (PAN) 39.54%
Leoncio Moran (MC) 12.01%
Martha Zepeda (PRD) 1.87%
Jose Gallardo (Morena) 0.82%
Gerardo Galvan (PES) 0.44%

PRI did even better than it did back in July 2015 by gaining vote share whereas PAN stayed the same as July 2015.  This is impressive as one would expect that anti-incumbency will grow as time goes on.   Perhaps this is an "El Chapo" recapture bounce ?

[jaichind]

For 2016 I assume the Governor elections are for

Aguascalientes (current PRI, most likely PRI vs PAN battleground with weak PRD presence) 
Chihuahua  (current PRI, most likely PRI vs PAN battleground with weak PRD presence) 
Durango (current PRI which won against PAN-PRD last time and it seems alliance is on again)
Hidalgo (current PRI which won against PAN-PRD last time and it seems alliance is on again)
Oaxaca (current MC also backed by PAN-PRD which won against PRI, not clear if alliance will continue)
Puebla (current PAN also backed by PRD, not clear if alliance will continue)
Quintana Roo (current PRI who beat PRD and PAN running separately, likely same result this time)
Sinaloa (current PAN also backed by PRD, not clear if alliance will continue)
Tamaulipas (current PRI, most likely PRI vs PAN battleground with weak PRD presence)
Tlaxcala  (current PRI, most likely PRI vs PAN battleground with weak PRD presence)
Veracruz  (current PRI, most likely PRI vs PAN battleground but PRD backing PAN will make difference)
Zacatecas  (current PRI who beat PRD and PAN running  separately, likely same result this time)

[jaichind]

I am surprised that the PRD is talking to PAN at all.  It makes logical sense but problem is, unlike 2010, we now have MORENA.  So for states that PRD cede to PAN to run, MORENA will run and try to take over the PRD organization along the way and pointing out that the PRD sold out.   I guess this why the PRD is under so much pressure during these talks with PAN.

[jaichind]

At his point, the big discussion are the Puebla/Tlaxcala and Veracruz/Oaxaca pairings.

I assume for  Veracruz/Oaxaca it will be PAN for Veracruz and PRD for Oaxaca and for Puebla/Tlaxcala it will be PAN for Puebla and PRD for Tlaxcala if a deal is struck. 

[jaichind]

BTW, we should be adding the elections to the Constituent Convention of the new state of Mexico City (the 32nd state of Mexico). The constitutional amendment abolishing DF and instituting the state has just been ratified and should be promulgated any moment now (if it has not happened already). It calls for a Constituent Convention of 100 members, of which 60 will be directly elected sometime this summer.

Oh  I did not know that.  So will the Head of Government of the Federal District, which I think is Mancera, be renamed Governor of Mexico City?  Will they hold  an election now for the newly created role of Governor or wait until 2018?

[jaichind]

Puebla/Tlaxcala deal is off: both parties failed to work it out. Veracruz/Oaxaca might still be on: at least PAN has approved it.

I imagine even without a deal there might be a lot of tactical voting by PRD voters for PAN in Puebla.  It might not help since it seems that MORENA is stronger here as the party of the Left versus the PRD so PRD tactical voting for PAN might not be enough.  In Tlaxcala it might become a free for all with everyone running which should throw the election to PRI.   It would be interesting if there is no deal in Oaxaca since I think in both 2004 and 2010 there were large anti-PRI alliances which included both PRI and PAN and now there will be a multi-polar race.

[jaichind]

http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2016/02/04/mexico/1454609543_900363.html

Seems to indicate that the PAN-PRD alliance has been formed in Veracruz and Oaxaca.  If this is effective on the ground it will complicate the PRI attempt to recapture Oaxaca and hold on to Veracruz.

[jaichind]

It seems in Aguascalientes, it will be PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PT which should give it an advantage over PAN even though this is a lean PAN state.  PANAL seems to have some strength here.  What is bizarre is that just a couple of months ago PANAL joined PAN to defeat PRI-PVEM in a Lower House re-vote of the Aguascalientes Federal 1st District Congressional race.  Now PANAL has swung back to PRI.

[jaichind]

In Sinaloa where a grand alliance PAN-PRD-MC won in 2010 over PRI things look better for PRI.  Not only is the PAN PRD alliance off but it seems PAN rebel Manuel Clouthier who won a seat as an independent last year in the Congressional elections will launch a campaign as an independent trying to replicate the "El Bronco" victory in NL last year.  More likely he is just going to split the PAN vote and help hand the election to PRI.

[jaichind]

It seems PRD and PAN will be running a joint candidate in Quintana Roo. As may be expected, he is a dissident PRIista

Will this make a difference?  Both PRI-PVEM and MORENA seems pretty strong here.  If both blocs maintain their vote base PRD-PAN does not seem to have much of a chance.  Does this dissident PRI joint candidate command a large personal vote base that he can transfer from PRI to PRD-PAN ?

[jaichind]

why did AMLO leave PRD anyway?

Even I could answer that.  AMLO wanted a party that he could control.  In the aftermath of his 2006 defeat it was clear looking at the nomination battles in the PRD that ALMO was far from having complete control of PRD.  He won the PRD nominated in 2012 by a whisker and even that was due to name recognition.   He wanted to make sure that he gets to run fore president in 2018 without having to worry about some intra-party rival. 

[jaichind]

It seems even though PRD go the go ahead with PAN support to run its candidate in Oaxaca the are two rival PRD candidates working to get the PRD nomination.   They are Benjamín Robles Montoya who is a PRD senator and José Antonio Estefan Garfias who is a PRD Lower House member.  It seems it is possible whoever does not get nominated might run as an independent a al "El Bronco" model.    A recent Mitofsky poll seems to indicate that even that were to happen the PRD-PAN ticket will beat the PRI ticket.   Benjamín Robles Montoya seems to be the stronger of the two candidates based on the poll.

 

[jaichind]

Wait.  If I am reading this right, in Zacatecas PRD-PAN will nominate a PRI turncoat who is also the brother of the current PRI governor ??!!  Wow.

http://aristeguinoticias.com/1802/mexico/un-ex-priista-designado-como-candidato-del-prd-en-zacatecas/

[jaichind]

It seems in Oaxaca where PRD with PAN support will take on PRI, the PRD has picked Garfias as its candidate which provoked PRD Senator Robles to bolt from the party since he was expecting to get the nomination.   It seems that Robles will run as an independent making this race a multi-cornered race after all.   For PRI it seems it will nominate Murat who is the son of a former PRI governor of Oaxaca.

[jaichind]

First polls for 2018 Prez elections



AMLO ahead.  But I guess it is mostly because of name recognition plus the PAN proto-candidate (who is just Calderón's wife) and the PRI-PVEM proto-candidate Minister of Interior Chong are both powerful within their own parties but not that popular with the electorate.  

In terms of favorable/unfavorable AMLO clearly is the most well known and no other candidate seems to have very strong net favorable or unfavorable.

[jaichind]

El Chino in Mexico? Interesting possibility.

I think he is only Chinese on his mother's side.  Unlike the real El Chino I doubt he speaks any Chinese (Fujimori the elder speaks pretty good Japanese for someone born in Peru.  If only my American born son can speak Chinese mandarin as well as Fujimori speaks Japanese I would be very satisfied.) 

[jaichind]

PRI ahead in Durango.  But that is a PRI stronghold anyway.

[jaichind]

PRI in trouble in Veracruz against PAN backed by PRD.  PRI is behind 24.1% vs 19% and MORENA is actually at 15.1%.  This means even though the Left voting bloc is not going to PAN, PRI is still behind.

[jaichind]

PRI behind in PAN-PRD in Quintana Roo as well 33% 27.5% 

[jaichind]

PRI slightly ahead of PAN in Aguascalientes 35.5% vs 33.5%

[jaichind]

PRI ahead in Tamaulipas 30.8% vs 27%

[jaichind]

In Chihuahua PRI ahead of PAN 30.5 vs 16.3

[jaichind]

Strategic Communications (CGE) made a projection on the governor races.  It projects PRI will  lose Veracruz, Quintana Roo, and Tlaxcala but projects PRI to capture Oaxaca and Sinaloa while PAN retains Puebla.  From a population pont of view this is a net defeat for PRI as Veracruz is a very large state.

[jaichind]

A Covarrubias y Asociados survey has PRI with a large lead in Quintana Roo which seems to contradict other surveys.   Of course both this survey and the other one has MORENA having significant support which could torpedo the PAN-PRD alliance.

[jaichind]

PRI ahead in Sinaloa 35.1 vs 24.6.   I guess PAN rebel Manuel Clouthier did not end up running or else PAN would be even worse shape.