German federal election (September 18, 2005)

[jaichind]

With the SPD slowly rising hopefully they can take back enough from the CDU/CSU and have an SPD/Left Party/Greens coalition.

No way. SPD themselves would rather go for the grand coalition than deal with the left.  You'd see CDU/FDP/Green or SDP/Green/FDP before you see anything with the left. Though in case of CDU/CSU/FDP government being impossible I would be betting on the grand coalition (with or without FDP and Greens).

But a Grand Coaltion would mean gridlock.  All protest floating voters will surge to the Left Party and they will be stronger than ever and even get some roots into the West.  Of course a SPD/Green/Left government is not possible even if it could command a majority (it is only a couple percentage points away now) since SPD burned its bridges to both parties in how it called this election and how it campaigned so far. 

[jaichind]

As of 10:33 EST turnout is lower than it was in 2002.  This is bad news for SPD. 

[jaichind]

Exit polls N24

SPD 33.5
Left 8.5
FDP 10.5
Greens 8.5
CDU/CSU 36

[jaichind]

Exit poll ARD

SPD 34
CDU/CSU 35.5
Greens 8.5
FDP 10.5
Left 7.5

[jaichind]

Exit poll ZDF

Left 8
Greens 8
FDP 10.5
CDU/CSU 37
SPD 33

[jaichind]

FDP result is a surprise.  Looks like a lot of CDU/CSU supporters voted for them.  Even though Left party did not do as well as expected this election is good news for them.  A CDU/CSU-SPD coalition will leave them as the real opposition.  The can look forward to picking up more protest votes next election.

[jaichind]

Forsa projects SPD with 223 seats and CDU/CSU with 220 seat !  This upseats all calculations.

[jaichind]

NTV gives SPD 222 and CDU/CSU 222 ... what a mess

[jaichind]

     The following is a summary of projections for the four main TV networks in Germany, showing support for the parties in percent and the seats in parliament.

        ARD/Infratest  ZDF/FG   n-tv/       N24/Emnid   2002
        Dimap          Wahlen   RTL/Forsa              election
CDU     35.2           35.0     35.0        35.0        38.5
FDP      10.0           10.0     10.0        10.0         7.4
SPD      34.1           34.1     34.0        34.0       38.5
Greens   8.1            8.2       8.2          8.1         8.6
Left        8.6            8.6       8.5          8.4         4.0

 
        ARD/Infratest  ZDF/FG   n-tv/       N24/Emnid   2002
        Dimap          Wahlen   RTL/Forsa              election
CDU      219            224      222         222         248
FDP         62             62         62          62            47
SPD       212            221      222         222         251
Greens    51             51         51          51            55
Left         54             54         53          53             2

 

[jaichind]

I think given the fact that the collective left (SPD, Green, Left) got more than 50% of the vote it should really be a SPD-Green minority government with support from the Left from the outside.  Unlikely to happend.  Most likely elections very soon.