French regional election - December 6 and 13, 2015

[jaichind]

Any links to official results ?

[jaichind]

I assume official exit polls will be out in a few min right ?

[jaichind]

Will FG or EELV call on their supporters to vote for PS in the second round?

[jaichind]

What percentage does the third party have to reach in order to make the runoff a triangulaire?

I think it is 10% of the first-round votes but I could be wrong about that.

[jaichind]

Places like Normandie, Centre-Val de Loire, and Bourgogne-Franche-Comté will be interesting in the second round.  It seems FN, Center-Right, and Left all have a chance in a evenly split 3 way contest although it seems the Left should have the advantage if they can fuse all leftist votes together.  Not sure if that is going to take place though.

[jaichind]

So which ones will FN win in the end.  Clearly the 2 Le Pens will win.   I assume Philippot will win as well in the second round which will give FN 3 wins.  I do not see any realistic chances for FN elsewhere.  Still this is an impressive win for FN.

[jaichind]

In terms of total vote share the Left bloc as a while actually gained from March 2015.  It is the Center-Right that lost ground since March 2015 to both the Left as a whole as well as FN.

[jaichind]

It seems that in the two places where the Le Pens are in the running, Nord-Pas-de-Calais-Picardie and Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur, PS has withdrawn their list in order to stop FN.  I wonder if parties/fronts like FG and EELV will follow suit and call for their supporters to vote for the Center-Right.  If not I am not sure how the FN will be stopped.

[jaichind]

It seems that in the two places where the Le Pens are in the running, Nord-Pas-de-Calais-Picardie and Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur, PS has withdrawn their list in order to stop FN.  I wonder if parties/fronts like FG and EELV will follow suit and call for their supporters to vote for the Center-Right.  If not I am not sure how the FN will be stopped.

Any third-place finisher who does not withdraw now, should be considered a fascist enabler and treated accordingly.

The most obvious one that did not take place is Alsace-Champagne-Ardenne-Lorraine where FN is well ahead.  Unless there are large tactical voting Left voters, the FN is in a good position.

[jaichind]

One place the FN can go hunting for votes to ensure its victory in the second round in places where it has a realistic shot at winning are to go after the DLF votes.  DLF did not seem to give instructions to its supports as to who to vote for in the second round and they seem to refuse to fuse for the places where it cross 5% but I suspect a large section of DLF will go to FN.

[jaichind]

What percentage does the third party have to reach in order to make the runoff a triangulaire?

5% to fuse, 10% to maintain your list.

But they really didn't want to make it simple and accessful to people, because, régionales list belong to what happens on départementales lists...

For those who understand French, a good enough video from Le Monde tries to explain it:

http://www.lemonde.fr/elections-regionales-2015/video/2015/12/05/comprendre-les-elections-regionales-en-2-minutes_4825256_4640869.html

They really screwed it up...all the way...with those 'fancy' regionales créations...

How does this 5% to fuse work ?  I assume a party that wins 5%-10% can form an alliance with another party that crossed the 10% mark.  Will this party still get an independent line ? If not how will the seats be distributed as the voter will not be able to indicate their preferences when they vote for this fusion line?  Can two parties that are in the 5%-10% fuse or do they HAVE to fuse with a party that crossed 10%?

Why did they change the rules? I thought it was always 12.5% of registered voters to make it into the second round?  If seems like this new system makes it easier for the FN to win as it makes it possible for various smaller center-right and center-left to make it into the second round to split the anti-FN vote.

[jaichind]

Castaner (PACA PS)
Masseret (ChamAlLo (sounds like the French word for marshmallow ^^), well, Great East, PS)

...both announce they maintain their list.

But PS says local decisions don't coun't, only national ones matters.

Yay boys, get the mess begins...

PS national council has to take place tonight.

Looks like Masseret is in the second round.  Castaner is out.

[jaichind]

   I wonder if this electoral debacle for the Socialists will encourage them to push through a change to proportional representation for National Assembly elections. IIRC that's what happened during Mitterand's first term, when to avoid a total electoral debacle in the 1986 National Assembly elections, PR was introduced.

I think they did PR back in 1986 and FN got a bunch of MPs and nearly led to a hung legislature with FN holding the balance of power.  So the "establishment" worked to change it back to the two round system for 1988.   Neither the PS nor the main center-right parties will go for this.  They both benefit from this system at the second round.

[jaichind]

Nonsense. There is some regions where the favorite is the list which finished 3rd (usually the left, when 1st 2nd and 3rd are close, which can count on the Greens and Communists votes, which accounts for more than 10% in some regions.)

Look Normandy. LR 1st, FN 2nd, PS 3rd.

In that case it is the second list that should withdraw. But anything that permits a possibility of an FN victory should be treated as high treason.

I am not sure I agree with that as a goal to stop FN.  I think if the electorate gets the perception that "the system"  is out to stop a particular party or movement even at the expense at compromising ones principles there will be a natural sympathy for said movement as a revulsion against the status quo parties as being hypocrites.  While this might stop FN for a while, it will eventually build up support for the FN to ever greater heights on the medium run.   

[jaichind]

Stop posting nonsense. The right, not a mystical evil 'establishment' the fascists fantasize about, changed the electoral system after the 1986 because they had never supported switching the electoral system in the first place (for good reason, sine Mitterrand changed the electoral system not because of the good of his heart but to hurt the right's chances).

Ah, thanks for clearing that up.  It was never clear to me why the system was changed to be PR for 1986 anyway since it was clear on what would take place.  That PS changed it to hurt the center-right does make sense.

[jaichind]

What are the chances that FN wins in North and or PACA on sunday?!

I would say 75% in North, 60% in PACA?

We also have Alsace-Champagne-Ardenne-Lorraine where FN also has a good shot at winning since PS's Masseret refuse to withdraw in defiance of the national party.  DLF polled well there so FN has some reserve votes to count on as well.  I wonder how much votes Masseret list will get in the second round? If it something like half the first round then the FN should squeak by there as well.

[jaichind]

In Alsace-Champagne-Ardenne-Lorraine there seems to be a movement by PS to try to invalidate Masseret's list by getting more than half of the candidates on Masseret's list to invalidate his candidacy.  It is not clear this will be done in time and Masseret is fighting back as the PS camp implodes.  It seems more and more likely that FN's Philippot will win in the second round.

[jaichind]

http://www.francetvinfo.fr/elections/regionales/infographie-regionales-qui-va-gagner-au-deuxieme-tour-dans-votre-region_1212345.html

is a link with round 2 projections.  It seems to suggest that Nord-Pas-de-Calais-Picardie is a lock for FN.  It also seems to suggest that FN has the upper hand in Bourgogne-Franche-Comté and Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur.  It seems to indicate that Marine Le Pen's on list will narrowly lose Nord-Pas-de-Calais-Picardie.  So it seems if FN has an above average election day, Centre-Val de Loire could also fall to FN.  In fact this model seems to give FN a better chance in Centre-Val de Loire than in Nord-Pas-de-Calais-Picardie. 

[jaichind]

Rumor

Fn would win ALCA but not paca or NPDC.

PS would win Bretagne, corse and ALPC. The rest (9) for UMP

update: no fn régions.

I find it hard to believe that PS will lose Normandie

[jaichind]

Exit polls, Both Le Pens lose.

Looks like turnout is around 59%.

[jaichind]

It seems to be Marie losing 42-57 while Marion losing 45-55.

[jaichind]

France-wide result with 66% of the vote counted:

38.9% Right
30.2% FN
27.7% Left
  2.9% Other Left
  0.2% Regional Lists

Turnout: 60%

http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/regionales-2015/FE.html

With these results and as many regions as the right, Hollande just graduated in his gerrymandering degree.

These numbers are of course misleading, because the Left didn't stand in two regions!

And mostly took a dive in the third.

[jaichind]

Looks like there were some FN tactical voting for Center-Right in Île-de-France.