UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread)

[jaichind]

After Putney confirming UKIP tactical voting for CON the political markets moved again

CON            312
LAB             246
LD                15
UKIP             3.5
SNP             54.5

[jaichind]

Another small swing in London. Once again worse than the exit poll.

And again, UKIP under performs in places where CON are strong.

[jaichind]

Political markets

CON            314
LAB             246
LD                14.5
UKIP              3.5
SNP              55


CON and SNP continue to gain

[jaichind]

Political markets

CON             319
LAB              240
LD                 14
UKIP               2.5
SNP               55.5

CON back up to what the orig exit polls projected.

[jaichind]

Nuneaton hold by CON on a positive swing.  UKIP did worse than expected.  UKIP->CON tactical voting.

[jaichind]

Clwyd South:
37% Labour
30% Conservative
16% UKIP
10% Plaid Cymru
4% Liberal Democrat
3% Green

2010:
38% Labour
30% Conservative
17% Liberal Democrat
9% Plaid Cymru
3% BNP
2% UKIP

So basically the Liberal Democratic switched to UKIP? LOL.

It is more like LD->LAB, LD->CON, LAB->UKIP, and CON->UKIP.  CON->UKIP weaken a lot due to last minute tactical voting.  LAB->UKIP and UKIP->CON tactical voting are result of English Nationalism due to the threat from SNP.  In retrospect what save Cameron was agreeing to the Scotland Referendum.

[jaichind]

Political markets

CON             319
LAB              240
LD                 14
UKIP               2.5
SNP               55.5

CON back up to what the orig exit polls projected.

Where can I follow them? Thanks.

http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/british/mm4.uk.meeting.4888412/uk-general-election-seats-markets

[jaichind]

Wait...was that 30,000 votes exactly? Wow what are the odds.

Those are estimates.

[jaichind]

Wait...was that 30,000 votes exactly? Wow what are the odds.

Those are estimates.

No that was the actual count: exactly 30,000.

http://www.bbc.com/news/politics/constituencies/S14000040

Ooops.  I got this mixed up with a NI seat where I know they do estimates.  Wow, exactly 30000.

[jaichind]

Warwickshire North which LAB #1 target for CON was held by CON on a swing to CON. UKIP also over-performed as well so the shift here from LAB to UKIP was much larger than expected.

[jaichind]

It seems this will be the first time a ruling party will gain both seats and vote share from the previous election since the 1964 -> 1966.   The 2 elections in 1974 would be the only other case but they are so close to each other there is no chance of anti-incumbency to come into play. 

[jaichind]

According to the Liberals, Simon Hughes has lost.

RIP Liberal Democrats as a party.

It has been worse before.

exactly

worst result since 1970 (7.5%), the worstest is 1951 (2.5%)

This might be worse than 1970 and 1951.  In 1970 LIB only contested half the seats and in 1951 LIB only contestd 1/6 of the seats.  So we must calibrate the votes shares with that fact.

[jaichind]

ORKNEY&SHETLAND LD-HOLD

SNP clean sweep of Scotland avoided.

[jaichind]

Cleggism shall rise again.

CON tactical voting.

[jaichind]

Conservatives steal Gower from Labour.

CON seems to be doing quite well in Wales.  And this is despite that UKIP is also doing well.  It is clear that UKIP ate into the LAB vote base in Wales by a significant margin.

[jaichind]

Latest BBC projection- 325-232

1 short of majority

SF will not take their seats so 325 will be a majority.

[jaichind]

Why is SW UK so slow in their count?

[jaichind]

So far LAB gained 7 seats from CON in England.  But CON gained 6 seats from LAB in England.  Pretty much as wash.

[jaichind]

And Galloway is defeated!

Oh Well.

[jaichind]

SF and SDLP lost a lot of ground in NI.   Looks like some of it was to the APNI who managed to lose their own seat.

[jaichind]

Overall LAB gained 10 from CON, while CON gained 8 from LAB.  In Wales it was CON gain 2 from LAB while in England it was CON gain 6 from LAB and LAB gain 10 from CON.  Most of LAB gains from CON were in London, I think 5.  So the best place for CON relative to 2010 was Wales and the best place for LAB relative to 2010 was London.

[jaichind]

Wow.  I think the CON+UKIP vote share in GB (not UK though) is slightly over 50%.

[jaichind]

I think I mentioned this before.  But this will the the first time an incumbent ruling party managed to increase BOTH seat and vote share after a full term since the 1950s.  Harold Wilson manged this twice in 1964/1966 and the 2 1974 elections but I do not count either one, especially the 2 1974 elections since anti-incumbency did not have enough time to sink in either case, especially in 1974.  CON in 2010 to 2015 went the entire 5 years and still managed to increase its vote share and seat share.

[jaichind]

Some very early England council election results seem to confirm the same trend.  CON and UKIP gaining  ground and LD losing ground.   LAB flat to slightly losing ground. 

[jaichind]

St Ives comes in, Tory gain from Lib Dems

Pretty much the story of the night.



We had 2 major developments

1) Rise of SNP: hurt labor disproportionately
2) Collapse of Lib Dems: helps conservatives disproportionately
3) Rise of UKIP: FPTP prevents this from being an issue in tandem with strategic voting

I would say the collapse of LD does help CON more than LAB but the ratio is more like 2:1 versus something 40:1 for rise of SNP.  LAB is helped by fall of LD not just from LAB->LD seat gains but LAB is able to take a few CON seats even as CON vote share goes up since LAB goes up more as more LD votes goes to LAB in these seats.