UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)

[jaichind]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/04/breathtaking-surge-of-tory-tactical-votes-to-save-nick-clegg-in-hallam-poll

Clegg talking up CON-LD post election alliance is working.

[jaichind]

http://www.bbc.com/news/election-2015-32584903

Labour 'considers Lib Dem coalition'

An attempt by LAB to counter CON-LIB anti-LAB tactical voting ?

[jaichind]

http://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/may/04/independent-conservative-liberal-democrat-coalition-cameron-clegg

Independent backs another coalition between Tories and Liberal Democrats

This is a bit of a surprise

[jaichind]

ComRes  Conservatives 35%, Labour 32% UKIP 14%, Liberal Democrats 9%, Green Party 4%

[jaichind]

With respect to polling it comes down to which do you believe, phone polls (CON ahead by 2 or 3) or internet polls (tie between CON and LAB) ?

The argument for phone polls is that it is not self selecting which means it is more random.
The argument for internet polls is that it takes into account of the shy UKIP voter.  UKIP does much better in internet polls where there less social pressure to admitting that one supports UKIP.

We will see Thursday.

[jaichind]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11583094/Labour-candidate-says-Miliband-wont-keep-promises-just-because-theyre-set-in-stone.html

Ed Miliband could break 'set in stone' pledges, Labour campaign chief admits

Huh ?  It seems she did try to walk it back.

[jaichind]

Panelbase Scotland

SNP 48%, Labour 26% Conservatives 14% Liberal Democrats 5% UKIP 3%, Greens 2%,

[jaichind]

TNS final poll

CON 33  LAB 32 LD 8 UKIP 14 GRN 6

Certain to vote   CON 35 LAB 32

TNS regional swings (Con to Lab)

North: 2.5%
Mids: 2.1%
South: 6.5%

Labour swings more where they need it less.

[jaichind]

Survation poll.  CON 35 LAB 34 UKIP 12 LD 9 Green 4.