Bihar Assembly elections 12 October 2015 - 5 November 2015

[jaichind]

JD(U) RJD and INC formally announce tomorrow alliance for Bihar elections.  JD(U) and RJD will contest 100 seats each and INC 40 seats.  Not clear who will contest the last 3 seats.  Most likely NCP.  I would be interested to see the distribution of seats.  On the surface it seems INC has gotten a fairly good deal.  If JD(U) and RJD are smart the 40 seats that INC gets should be in seats that has strong upper caste strength.  The path that INC has to take toward revival in Bihar would have to target the BJP upper caste  vote base. 

Just like before, the JD(U)-RJD-INC-NCP seems to have good alliance dynamics, for now, at the leadership level ergo the smooth agreement on seats distribution but they will have problems at the grassroots level as their social bases might clash.  For BJP-LJP-RLSP-HAM it is opposite.  The leadership level are in conflict especially between LJP and HAM as both vie to the the party of the Dalits in NDA.  As a result there are deadlock in seat distribution.  But once they get past that the NDA alliance is more likely to work at the grassroots level.

[jaichind]

NCP is calling the 3 seats it is getting in the JD(U)-RJD-INC-NCP alliance an insult and that it was not even consulted on the seat distribution.  It is demanding 12 seats.

[jaichind]

Modi is double downing on Bihar.  He announced an unheard of $20 billion package for Bihar development at a rally in Bihar today.  I guess he feels he must win Bihar or his political fortunes will fall into decline so he is putting all political capital to use for this win.

Meanwhile anti-BJP grand alliance running into more alliance trouble.  NCP is demanding 12 seats as opposed to the 3 it got or it will pull out of the alliance.  SP is also protesting that it did not get any seats.  To be fair the SP base in Bihar has declined since the 90s and now is non-existent.  AIMIM which is a Telegana based Muslim party is threatening to run candidates in Bihar which could also also damage the JD(U)-RJD-INC alliance.

[jaichind]

BJP which had hoped to contest 185 seats out of 243 seats now came out saying it will contest 170 seats.  The LJP and RLSP position is still that BJP contest 102 seats with the remaining going to NDA allies (LJP RLSP and perhaps HAM.)  RLSP insists that RLSP contest 67 seats and LJP 74 seats.  HAM insists that BJP contest 122 seats.   This whole thing has to be locked down in early Sept or else the NDA would not nominate candidates in time for any real campaigning.  The BJP will most likely win this game of poker as LJP and RLSP will have no place to go since that anti-BJP alliance seat sharing process is already done.

[jaichind]

Still deadlock in NDA over seat distribution.  After LJP and RLSP held a press conference indicating that BJP should contest 102 seats, there are talks that RLSP is holding talks with RJD.  Not sure how this will go anyway as RJD JD(U) INC pretty much already allocated seats already. 

[jaichind]

NCP will exit the JD(U)-RJD-INC alliance as it is not satisfied with the 3 seats it got.  Most likely NCP will run on its own or join the Left Front alliance.  RJD decided to placate SP by giving 5 seats from its quota  so now it is JD(U)-RJD-INC-SP alliance.

[jaichind]

Election schedule announce.  5 rounds of from 10/10 to 11/5.  Counting is on 11/8.

Most recent developments seems to be working against JD(U)-RJD-INC grand alliance. NCP broke away as did SP from the alliance.  It seems SP-NCP will run as a bloc perhaps with the Left Front alliance.  JMM which had an understanding with  JD(U)-RJD-INC seems to have broken that understanding and will run candidates in tribal areas in Bihar.    On the other hand there are still no seat allocation deals clinched yet for BJP-RLSP-LJP-HAM.  There seems to be some sniping between HAM and LJP to be "the Dalit party" in the NDA.

A recent C-voter survey did give JD(U)-RJD-INC an edge.  C-Voter gives JD(U)-RJD-INC 116 and 132 seats out of 243 with 43% of the vote while it gives BJP-RLSP-LJP-HAM 94 to 110  with 40% of the poll.

[jaichind]

ITG-Cicero survey has NDA at 125 seats with 42% of the vote versus JD(U)-RJD-INC at 106 seats with 40% of the vote.  They actually have some cross-tabes which are interesting namely by caste.







As expected, NDA is strong with upper castes with any upper caste votes for JD(U)-RJD-INC due to residual influce INC has with upper castes.   RJD has Yadavs and Muslims while JD(U) is strong with Kurmis.  The surprise here is the level of support NDA has with Dalits.  Also NDA votes share of Muslims is relatively high.   The stronger performance of NDA has more to do with its ability to capture some Yadav and Muslim votes as well as lead with Dalits.  Perhaps having HAM with NDA is helping after all.

[jaichind]

BJP sources say that NDA is close to seat deal.  It seems like it will be BJP 170 LJP 40 RLSP 20 HAM 13.  But it seems this is what the BJP is pushing for and it also seems that LJP and RLSP is pushing back.  I guess the BJP source is saying that they are close to a deal because LJP and RLSP will have no choice but to accept this deal.

[jaichind]

Rumor is that NDA will announce a seat sharing deal today and that BJP has scaled down the seats they will contest from 170 to 160.

[jaichind]

Latest word is that the NDA seat sharing allocation will be BJP 160 LJP 40 RLSP 25 HAM 15.  It seems that they cannot announce this because HAM leader Manjhi insists on more then 15 seats.  The BJP is asking that 5 of the JD(U) MLAs that defected over to HAM run as BJP candidates.  These disagreements are sticking points  that prevents a formal agreement.  It seems RLSP pretty much accepted these allocations.

[jaichind]

Even as HAM leader and former JD(U) CM Manjhi rejected NDA offer of 15 seats and are working to renegotiate as he demands something like 40 seats, Manjhi's son was just arrested with about $10K worth of cash in his car on suspicion of tax avoidance.  Not sure who is behind this (JD(U) or BJP) or just bad luck but it seems this will have the effect on adding pressure on Manjhi. 

[jaichind]

It seems NDA reached an agreement on seat sharing.  BJP 160 LJP 40 RLSP 23 HAM 20.  In addition 5 HAM ex-JD(U) MLAs will contest as BJP candidates.

[jaichind]

The AP/Telegana based Muslim communal party AIMIM will run candidates in the anti-NDA bastion of Seemanchal where they are a high concentration of Muslims.  Most likely this will not hurt the JD(U)-RJD-INC alliance as in the 2014 LS elections JD(U)-CPI and RJD-INC-NCP ran separately and the NDA still did not win here.  On the positive side of the ledger for JD(U)-RJD-NCP it seems that SS will also run in a bunch of seats which could hurt NDA although SS ran in 2010 Bihar assembly elections and did not seem to dent JD(U)-BJP.  JMM, a week after claiming it will run in all 243 seats now is coming around to joining JD(U)-RJD-INC.  Looking at how JMM did in 2010 Assembly elections and 2014 LS elections in Bihar, I can see JMM getting 2-3 seats.  Main problem with JMM joining JD(U)-RJD-INC is that the seats that JMM could realistically win happen to have JD(U) incumbents which JD(U) won when it was allied with BJP.   

[jaichind]

The AP/Telegana based Muslim communal party AIMIM will run candidates in the anti-NDA bastion of Seemanchal where they are a high concentration of Muslims.  Most likely this will not hurt the JD(U)-RJD-INC alliance as in the 2014 LS elections JD(U)-CPI and RJD-INC-NCP ran separately and the NDA still did not win here.  On the positive side of the ledger for JD(U)-RJD-NCP it seems that SS will also run in a bunch of seats which could hurt NDA although SS ran in 2010 Bihar assembly elections and did not seem to dent JD(U)-BJP.  JMM, a week after claiming it will run in all 243 seats now is coming around to joining JD(U)-RJD-INC.  Looking at how JMM did in 2010 Assembly elections and 2014 LS elections in Bihar, I can see JMM getting 2-3 seats.  Main problem with JMM joining JD(U)-RJD-INC is that the seats that JMM could realistically win happen to have JD(U) incumbents which JD(U) won when it was allied with BJP.   

What do you mean by SS? It can't be Shiv Sena.

SS is Shiv Sena.  My fault.  SHS is the correct 3 letter acronym in ECI for Shiv Sena.  I got lazy.

[jaichind]

SP-NCP pretty much stitched up their alliance.  With NDA finalizing their seat sharing arrangement, the 4 alliances that will run will be

BJP-LJP-RLSP-HAM
JD(U)-RJD-INC (maybe JMM, we will see)
SP-NCP
CPI-CPI(ML)-CPM-SUCI-RSP-FBL

It seems SP-NCP might try to get more allies but their pretty much ruled out AIMIM and RJD Pappu Yadav's JAM (Jan Adhikar Morcha) so I am not sure who is left for them to ally with especially with JMM looking to join JD(U)-RJD-INC.

To be frank my view is that JAM is a much bigger threat to JD(U)-RJD-INC as JAM will eat into the Yadav vote while the Musilm vote will most likely vote tactically to defeat NDA.

Anyway JD(U)-RJD-INC is now moving on the the next phase of the negotiations which is exactly which party will be allocated with seat.  There is no point for a party to get a lot of seat allocations if all of them are partisan strongholds for an opposing alliance.  The NDA just came up with the equation on seat allocation so they are not in that phase yet.   In this phase I suspect JD(U)-RJD-INC will have a harder time than NDA since there are significant number of JD(U) incumbents who will not want to step aside for RJD or INC.  BJP has a lot of incumbents too but they got an allocation of 160 seats.

[jaichind]

I didn't know there were Marathi in Bihar.

Funny, since the Sena constantly make hay over evil, weak (and worse: potentially Muslim!) North Indians taking away jobs from the swarthy, heroic Marathi Manus.

I've seen them referred to as SS a lot, I just was surprised they were contesting Bihar.

There are no Marathi in Bihar.  SHS runs BJP rebel or extreme Hindutva candidates all the time in LS or even assembly elections outside of Maharashtra.  Of course all it does is hurts BJP, a bit, by taking a small share of the vote.  In fact SHS should do poorly in Bihar since in Maharashtra, SHS and its MNS splinter often demonize Biharis and other Northern Indians .  But in both 2009 and 2014 SHS actually ran some candidates in Northern Bihar urban areas and gets a OK percent of the vote (3%-6%.)  So SHS might actually do some damage to NDA if they make a real effort.

[jaichind]

Election schedule announce.  5 rounds of from 10/10 to 11/5.  Counting is on 11/8.

Most recent developments seems to be working against JD(U)-RJD-INC grand alliance. NCP broke away as did SP from the alliance.  It seems SP-NCP will run as a bloc perhaps with the Left Front alliance.  JMM which had an understanding with  JD(U)-RJD-INC seems to have broken that understanding and will run candidates in tribal areas in Bihar.    On the other hand there are still no seat allocation deals clinched yet for BJP-RLSP-LJP-HAM.  There seems to be some sniping between HAM and LJP to be "the Dalit party" in the NDA.

A recent C-voter survey did give JD(U)-RJD-INC an edge.  C-Voter gives JD(U)-RJD-INC 116 and 132 seats out of 243 with 43% of the vote while it gives BJP-RLSP-LJP-HAM 94 to 110  with 40% of the poll.

Judging from the history of Dalit parties, I don't think the HAM/LJP dispute is going to be solved anytime soon.

Now that HAM got a "better deal" of 20 seats instead of the original 15 plus 5 of JD(U) MLAs which defected to HAM with Manjhi will contest on the BJP ticket it is said that many within LJP is getting angry that HAM's political profile is raised which threaten's LJP's role especially among Dalits.  So I guess this sniping will go on.

[jaichind]

I see, I made the silly mistake of assigning coherent ideology to the Sena.

At this stage SHS is feeling vulnerable and looking to hit back at BJP.  One can really see SHS as an opposition force within NDA to BJP.  SHS always seen itself as the senior partner of the Hindutva combine in Maharashtra.  Now it has been overtaken by BJP in the last assembly elections and fearing of being dumped by BJP for NCP or SHS splinter MNS it does look for ways to hit back at BJP without completely upsetting the apple cart of NDA rule in the Center and Maharashtra.  Contesting on its own in other states is one way to warn BJP not to take it for granted.   

[jaichind]

Let the defection games begin.

Now that the NDA, in theory, has locked down the seat allocation between the NDA parties and even as LJP grumbles, the BJP announced 43 BJP candidates.  The very same day a LJP MP resigned to protest how the LJP is treated.  The reality is, in my view, that the BJP candidates are in seats inside this LJP MP district and he wanted LJP candidates in his district so he can continue being the political overlord of his district by making sure that the MLAs elected in his seat are loyal to him.  Clear with BJP candidates there this cannot take place.  Also 2 BJP MLA which were nominated immediately had a meeting with JD(U) leader and CM Nitish Kumar and indicated they will join the "secular alliance" to fight communal forces led by the BJP which they were a part of just a day earlier.   

Of course once JD(U)-RJD-INC start nominating candidates there will be plenty of defections the other way.  The we can real plenty of news articles that fit this template which I posted in the 2014 India general election thread.

--------------------------------------------------------

<Politician A> has left <Party X> to join <Party Y> along with his/her followers.  Speaking in the presence of <Leader M> of <Party Y> with his/her followers, <Politician A> indicated that he/she was being sidelined in <Party X> and frustrated by the increasing autocratic nature of the way <Party X> was run and led by <Leader N who is most likely a rival of Leader M>.   <Politician A> also said that he/she was disturbed by the anti-People policies of <Party X> and decided that the only way he/she can fight for pro-People policies is to join <Party Y>.  <Politician A> concluded by saying that he/she does not seek any nomination for any office and only wishes to fight as a regular party worker for <Party Y> under the leadership of <Leader M> in the upcoming elections.

----------------------------------------------------------
 

[jaichind]

It is very likely that once seats are allocated on the JD(U)-RJD-INC side there will be a bunch of rebellions from JD(U).  This is because the seat allocation between JD(U)-RJD-INC is JD(U) 100 RJD 100 INC 40 (and perhaps JMM 3.)  But JD(U) has 97 sitting MLAs after 19 defected to HAM with Manji.  JD(U) will of course give almost all these 19 seats of HAM defectors to RJD.  Still for geographical diversity as well as taking into account where INC and RJD has strength is is almost certain that a bunch of JD(U) MLA will not be re-nominated which in turn will lead more defections/rebellions.

[jaichind]

Zee news survey NDA at 140 seats with 50.8% of the vote and JD(U)-RJD-INC at 70 seats with 42.5% of the vote.  It also has 41.2% of Muslims voting for NDA which makes this polls somewhat fishy. And if Muslims are voting for NDA at a 41.2% rate which I guess is in theory then NDA should really be at 200 seats.

[jaichind]

HAM seems to be turning into a confederation of clans.  Out of the 13 candidates HAM announced so far it features 2 father-son pairs including Manjhi and son.  Of course LJP is similar with LJP candidates including LJP leader Paswan's brother and nephew.  Only reason Paswan's son is not on the list is because he is already a MP.   I would say about half the expected rebellions in all parties, especially the OBC and Dalit parties like JD(U) RJD LJP RLSP and HAM, due to seat allocations are due to some party kingpin wanting to hoist some family member as a candidate over some other local political baron.

[jaichind]

Here is one way to make sure one is re-nominated.   One RJD MLA Bhai Dinesh threatens suicide by  immolation  if he is not renominated by RJD.  It seems the current play is to for ex-RJD member  Dadan Pahalwan who also has a bandit background to join JD(U) to contest.   Dadan Pahalwan  had defected from RJD to BSP years back and now will join JD(U) as this seat has been allocated to JD(U).

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/bihar-poll-rjd-mla-threatens-to-kill-self-if-denied-ticket/articleshow/49024245.cms

Of course Bhai Dinesh is know for theatrics.  Over the last 5 years he has been on several "fast until death" campaign over various "injustices."  



Here is Bhai Dinesh on one of his many other protests and fasts from over the years.

[jaichind]

If seems JD(U)-RJD-INC has finished up allocating seats between different parties.  The division of seats seems to be based on caste distributions of different districts with an attempt to keep JD(U) incumbents where possible.  RJD and INC both had demands on seats where high Yadav and/or Muslim concentrations which are seen as more winnable.  JD(U) made a deal with INC where a couple JD(U) members will run as INC candidates as a way to get around this and avoid defections/rebellions.   On the whole this process seems to have gone better than expected.  Most likely JMM will run in 3 seats.  We will see what the blow-back next week as candidates are announced and we see the defections roll in.